Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released June 18, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS is not changing any process or methodology in the Milk Production report. However, to aid data users, we are providing definitions for items in this report and some questions and answers pertaining to milk production estimates. This information can be found at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Understanding_Statistics/Mil k-Production-Inclusions.pdf May Milk Production down 1.0 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during May totaled 18.0 billion pounds, down 1.0 percent from May 2019. April revised production, at 17.8 billion pounds, was up 1.3 percent from April 2019. The April revision represented a decrease of 47 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,031 pounds for May, 32 pounds below May 2019. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.84 million head, 50,000 head more than May 2019, but 12,000 head less than April 2020. May Milk Production in the United States down 1.1 Percent Milk production in the United States during May totaled 18.8 billion pounds, down 1.1 percent from May 2019. Production per cow in the United States averaged 2,011 pounds for May, 31 pounds below May 2019. The number of milk cows on farms in the United States was 9.37 million head, 37,000 head more than May 2019, but 11,000 head less than April 2020. Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent : January-March ...: 9,346 9,374 5,823 5,987 54,423 56,121 3.1 April-June ......: 9,331 5,971 55,716 July-September ..: 9,322 5,818 54,237 October-December : 9,345 5,779 54,006 : Annual ..........: 9,336 23,391 218,382 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production by Month - 24 Selected States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 8,805 8,834 2,010 2,033 17,699 17,956 1.5 February ......: 8,803 8,848 1,833 1,925 16,132 17,031 5.6 March .........: 8,789 8,857 2,038 2,084 17,916 18,455 3.0 April .........: 8,788 8,852 1,996 2,008 17,544 17,778 1.3 May ...........: 8,790 8,840 2,063 2,031 18,137 17,956 -1.0 June ..........: 8,784 1,974 17,342 July ..........: 8,785 1,997 17,542 August ........: 8,789 1,984 17,439 September .....: 8,805 1,908 16,796 October .......: 8,819 1,962 17,299 November ......: 8,817 1,894 16,699 December ......: 8,816 1,987 17,517 : Annual ........: 8,799 23,646 208,062 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : January .......: 9,354 9,361 1,990 2,015 18,612 18,860 1.3 February ......: 9,352 9,375 1,814 1,908 16,966 17,886 5.4 March .........: 9,333 9,385 2,019 2,064 18,845 19,375 2.8 April .........: 9,332 9,381 1,975 1,988 18,433 18,653 1.2 May ...........: 9,333 9,370 2,042 2,011 19,058 18,840 -1.1 June ..........: 9,327 1,954 18,225 July ..........: 9,315 1,973 18,375 August ........: 9,318 1,960 18,267 September .....: 9,333 1,885 17,595 October .......: 9,347 1,940 18,135 November ......: 9,345 1,873 17,506 December ......: 9,343 1,966 18,365 : Annual ........: 9,336 23,391 218,382 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: May 2019 and 2020 [May not add due to rounding] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ State :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .........: 195 197 2,125 2,130 414 420 1.4 California ......: 1,726 1,722 2,060 2,035 3,556 3,504 -1.5 Colorado ........: 185 194 2,220 2,215 411 430 4.6 Florida .........: 115 115 1,850 1,850 213 213 - Georgia .........: 83 82 1,870 1,855 155 152 -1.9 Idaho ...........: 620 647 2,170 2,180 1,345 1,410 4.8 Illinois ........: 84 82 1,860 1,870 156 153 -1.9 Indiana .........: 179 176 2,030 2,030 363 357 -1.7 Iowa ............: 219 217 2,100 2,080 460 451 -2.0 Kansas ..........: 162 169 2,020 1,985 327 335 2.4 : Michigan ........: 425 428 2,350 2,325 999 995 -0.4 Minnesota .......: 448 443 1,925 1,910 862 846 -1.9 New Mexico ......: 324 328 2,215 2,030 718 666 -7.2 New York ........: 627 626 2,110 2,035 1,323 1,274 -3.7 Ohio ............: 248 253 1,910 1,880 474 476 0.4 Oregon ..........: 122 124 1,835 1,805 224 224 - Pennsylvania ....: 493 483 1,810 1,790 892 865 -3.0 South Dakota ....: 123 134 1,920 1,930 236 259 9.7 Texas ...........: 565 590 2,120 2,070 1,198 1,221 1.9 Utah ............: 98 96 2,010 1,990 197 191 -3.0 : Vermont .........: 126 123 1,855 1,780 234 219 -6.4 Virginia ........: 76 75 1,750 1,770 133 133 - Washington ......: 278 279 2,115 2,095 588 585 -0.5 Wisconsin .......: 1,269 1,257 2,095 2,050 2,659 2,577 -3.1 : 24-State Total ..: 8,790 8,840 2,063 2,031 18,137 17,956 -1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production - 24 Selected States: April 2019 and 2020 [May not add due to rounding] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : from : : : : : : : 2019 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :1,000 head 1,000 head pounds pounds million pounds million pounds percent : Arizona .......: 198 197 2,135 2,145 423 423 - California ....: 1,726 1,722 2,025 2,035 3,495 3,504 0.3 Colorado ......: 182 194 2,155 2,160 392 419 6.9 Florida .......: 116 115 1,785 1,805 207 208 0.5 Georgia .......: 83 82 1,890 1,880 157 154 -1.9 Idaho .........: 618 647 2,070 2,090 1,279 1,352 5.7 Illinois ......: 84 82 1,810 1,870 152 153 0.7 Indiana .......: 179 176 1,960 1,990 351 350 -0.3 Iowa ..........: 219 219 2,020 2,040 442 447 1.1 Kansas ........: 163 170 1,965 1,960 320 333 4.1 : Michigan ......: 425 428 2,235 2,255 950 965 1.6 Minnesota .....: 448 445 1,835 1,850 822 823 0.1 New Mexico ....: 321 330 2,165 2,100 695 693 -0.3 New York ......: 627 626 2,020 2,045 1,267 1,280 1.0 Ohio ..........: 250 253 1,830 1,840 458 466 1.7 Oregon ........: 122 124 1,760 1,750 215 217 0.9 Pennsylvania ..: 495 485 1,755 1,820 869 883 1.6 South Dakota ..: 123 132 1,835 1,870 226 247 9.3 Texas .........: 562 590 2,090 2,090 1,175 1,233 4.9 Utah ..........: 98 96 1,930 1,930 189 185 -2.1 : Vermont .......: 126 124 1,800 1,800 227 223 -1.8 Virginia ......: 76 75 1,720 1,765 131 132 0.8 Washington ....: 278 280 2,030 2,030 564 568 0.7 Wisconsin .....: 1,269 1,260 2,000 2,000 2,538 2,520 -0.7 : 24-State Total : 8,788 8,852 1,996 2,008 17,544 17,778 1.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey. Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 18.0 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.4 percent. Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent -------- 1,000 -------- ----- number ----- : : Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.4 30 0 115 15 8 : All Milk cows ................: 0.1 0.2 7 0 23 19 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 692-0069 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Ryan Cowen - Cattle, Cattle on Feed .......... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Suzanne Richards - Dairy Products ............ (202) 720-4448 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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