Mt An 2 (7-01) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 20, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Steve Anderson at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down Slightly All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2001, totaled 105.8 million head, slightly below the 106.3 million on July 1, 2000 and 1 percent below the 107.0 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 43.0 million, were slightly below the 43.2 million on July 1, 2000 and 1 percent below the 43.3 million two years ago. Beef cows, at 33.9 million, were down slightly from July 1, 2000 and 1 percent below two years ago. Milk cows, at 9.15 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2000 but was unchanged from two years ago. Other class estimates on July 1, 2001, and the changes from July 1 last year and two years ago, respectively, are as follows: All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.4 million, down 1 percent from both years. Beef replacement heifers, 4.6 million, down 2 percent and down 4 percent. Milk replacement heifers, 3.6 million, down 3 percent from both years. Other heifers, 8.2 million, up 1 percent for both years. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.6 million, up 2 percent and up 1 percent. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, unchanged and down 5 percent. Calves under 500 pounds, 29.7 million, down 2 percent and down 3 percent. All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 13.1 million, up 7 percent and up 14 percent. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2001 calf crop is expected to be 38.4 million, down 1 percent from 2000 and 1999. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 28.2 million, down 1 percent from both years. This report was approved on July 20, 2001. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Bill Hawks Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Steven D. Wiyatt Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 2001 as Class : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : % of 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Head ------- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 107,000 106,300 105,800 100 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 43,300 43,200 43,000 100 Beef Cows : 34,150 33,950 33,850 100 Milk Cows : 9,150 9,250 9,150 99 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,600 16,500 16,400 99 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,800 4,700 4,600 98 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,700 3,700 3,600 97 Other Heifers : 8,100 8,100 8,200 101 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,400 14,300 14,600 102 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,200 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 30,500 30,200 29,700 98 : Calf Crop : 38,796 38,621 38,400 99 : Cattle on Feed : 11,500 12,300 13,100 107 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 1999-2000 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent 1,000 Hd Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 28,500 73.5 28,400 73.5 28,200 73.4 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 10,296 26.5 10,221 26.5 10,200 26.6 : Total : 38,796 100.0 38,621 100.0 38,400 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and Calves: Balance Sheet, United States, January 1 - June 30, 1999-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Item : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Head : January 1 Inventory : 99.1 98.2 97.3 Calf Crop and Imports : 29.5 29.5 29.6 : Total Supply 2/ : 128.6 127.7 126.9 : Slaughter : 18.6 18.9 18.1 Deaths and Exports : 2.5 2.7 2.7 : Total Disappearance 2/ : 21.1 21.5 20.8 : Residual 2/ : -0.4 0.1 -0.3 : July 1 Inventory : 107.0 106.3 105.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class, State, and United States, July 1, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : All Cattle and Calves : All Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2001 as : : : 2001 as : 2000 : 2001 : % of 2000 : 2000 : 2001 : % of 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head --- Percent : CA : 5,000 5,200 104 2,310 2,360 102 CO : 3,500 3,300 94 960 930 97 IA : 3,950 3,850 97 1,250 1,220 98 KS : 6,950 6,900 99 1,740 1,730 99 MO : 4,700 4,650 99 2,220 2,200 99 MT : 3,750 3,500 93 1,630 1,570 96 NE : 7,250 7,250 100 2,100 2,100 100 OK : 5,500 5,400 98 2,100 2,050 98 SD : 4,900 5,100 104 1,950 2,050 105 TX : 14,900 15,000 101 6,100 6,000 98 WI : 3,700 3,600 97 1,600 1,550 97 : Oth Sts : 42,200 42,050 100 19,240 19,240 100 : US : 106,300 105,800 100 43,200 43,000 100 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Beef Cows That Have Calved : Milk Cows That Have Calved :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent CA : 785 770 98 1,525 1,590 104 CO : 875 838 96 85 92 108 IA : 1,035 1,010 98 215 210 98 KS : 1,650 1,640 99 90 90 100 MO : 2,066 2,053 99 154 147 95 MT : 1,612 1,551 96 18 19 106 NE : 2,025 2,027 100 75 73 97 OK : 2,009 1,961 98 91 89 98 SD : 1,847 1,951 106 103 99 96 TX : 5,750 5,675 99 350 325 93 WI : 255 260 102 1,345 1,290 96 : Oth Sts : 14,041 14,114 101 5,199 5,126 99 : US : 33,950 33,850 100 9,250 9,150 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop: Number by State and United States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2001 as State : 2000 : 2001 1/ : % 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Percent : CA : 1,980 2,030 103 CO : 880 840 95 IA : 1,120 1,110 99 KS : 1,480 1,450 98 MO : 2,060 2,040 99 MT : 1,620 1,550 96 NE : 1,840 1,840 100 OK : 1,850 1,800 97 SD : 1,850 1,930 104 TX : 5,100 5,100 100 WI : 1,410 1,370 97 : Oth Sts : 17,431 17,340 99 : US : 38,621 38,400 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from almost 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 9,500 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2001. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The reviews are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle inventory estimates over the past 20 years is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 105.8 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent. The table below also shows a 20 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 274,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,500,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 5 times, above the latest estimate 9 times, and unchanged 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.6 1.1 1,164 274 0 1,500 9 5 : All Cows : 0.8 1.4 602 119 0 1,100 9 6 : Calf Crop : 1.7 2.9 1,114 224 23 1,236 13 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from July 1981 through July 2000. 2/ Data in the above table do not reflect the 1-3 percent changes made during the 1989-93 historic revision period. The root mean square error's would be about 1 percentage point higher if these were included. The next "Cattle" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 1, 2002. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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