Cattle ISSN: 1948-9099 Released July 24, 2015, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July 1 Cattle Inventory Up 2 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2015, totaled 98.4 million head, 2 percent above the 96.3 million on July 1, 2014. The last time all cattle and calves inventory for July 1 increased was 2006. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 39.8 million, were up 2 percent from July 1, 2014. * Beef cows, at 30.5 million, were up 3 percent from July 1, 2014. * Milk cows, at 9.30 million, were up 1 percent from July 1, 2014. Other class estimates on July 1, 2015 and the percent change from July 1, 2014, are as follows: * All heifers 500 pounds and over, 15.9 million, up 2 percent. * Beef replacement heifers, 4.90 million, up 7 percent. * Milk replacement heifers, 4.20 million, up 2 percent. * Other heifers, 6.80 million, down 1 percent. * Steers, weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.1 million, up 3 percent. * Bulls, weighing 500 pounds and over, 1.90 million, unchanged. * Calves under 500 pounds, 26.7 million, up 2 percent. The 2015 calf crop is expected to be 34.3 million, up 1 percent from 2014. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 24.8 million, up 1 percent from the previous year. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 12.1 million head on July 1, 2015. The inventory was up 2 percent from the July 1, 2014 total of 11.9 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 85 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2015, up slightly from the previous year. Revisions All inventory estimates for July 1, 2014 were reviewed using calf crop, official slaughter, import and export data, and the relationship of new survey information to the prior surveys. Based on these findings, July 1, 2014 cattle and calves were increased by 0.3 percent, cows and heifers that have calved were increased by 0.3 percent, and heifers 500 pounds and over were increased by 1.3 percent. This report was approved on July 24, 2015. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Robert Johansson Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson James M. Harris Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - United States: July 1, 2014 and 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Percent of Class : 2014 : 2015 : 2014 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 head ----- percent : Cattle and calves ...................: 96,300.0 98,400.0 102 : Cows and heifers that have calved ...: 39,000.0 39,800.0 102 Beef cows .........................: 29,750.0 30,500.0 103 Milk cows .........................: 9,250.0 9,300.0 101 : Heifers 500 pounds and over .........: 15,600.0 15,900.0 102 For beef cow replacement ..........: 4,600.0 4,900.0 107 For milk cow replacement ..........: 4,100.0 4,200.0 102 Other heifers .....................: 6,900.0 6,800.0 99 : Steers 500 pounds and over ..........: 13,700.0 14,100.0 103 Bulls 500 pounds and over ...........: 1,900.0 1,900.0 100 Calves under 500 pounds .............: 26,100.0 26,700.0 102 : Calf crop ...........................: 33,900.0 34,300.0 101 : Cattle on feed ......................: 11,900.0 12,100.0 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period - United States: 2014 and Preliminary 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 2014 : 2015 :------------------------------------------------------- Period : : Percent of : : Percent of : Number : total : Number : total ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head percent 1,000 head percent : January 1 - June 30 ........: 24,600.0 72.6 24,800.0 72.3 July 1 - December 31 .......: 9,300.0 27.4 9,500.0 27.7 : Total ......................: 33,900.0 100.0 34,300.0 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2015. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National indications and analysis. National survey data was reviewed for reasonableness with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Class estimates are rounded to the nearest 100,000 head with the exception of beef and milk cows which are rounded to the nearest 50,000 head. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for July cattle inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 98.4 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. The table on the following page shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 490,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,300,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 3 times and has been above the latest estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates [Based on data from the past 10 years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : : Difference between : : : : : first and latest : Number of : Root : 90 percent : estimates : years Item : mean : confidence :-------------------------------------------- :square : level : : : : First : First : error : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : above : below : : : : : : : latest : latest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent ---------- 1,000 head ---------- number : All cattle .........: 0.7 1.2 1,181 490 0 1,300 4 3 : All cows ...........: 0.7 1.2 478 180 0 600 4 1 : Calf crop ..........: 1.6 2.8 960 446 0 1,093 6 3 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 720-3240 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Vacant - Sheep and Goats ..................... (202) 720-3570 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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