Cattle ISSN: 1948-9099 Released July 25, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 3 Percent from 2012 All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2014, totaled 95.0 million head, 3 percent below the 97.8 million on July 1, 2012. This is the lowest all cattle and calves inventory for July 1 since the series began in 1973. After a year absence due to sequestration, the July Cattle report has been reinstated. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 39.0 million, were down 2 percent from July 1, 2012. * Beef cows, at 29.7 million, were down 3 percent from July 1, 2012. * Milk cows, at 9.3 million, up 1 percent from July 1, 2012. Other class estimates on July 1, 2014 and the changes from July 1, 2012, are as follows: * All heifers 500 pounds and over, 14.9 million, down 5 percent. * Beef replacement heifers, 4.1 million, down 2 percent. * Milk replacement heifers, 3.9 million, down 5 percent. * Other heifers, 6.9 million, down 7 percent. * Steers, weighing 500 pounds and over, 13.5 million, down 4 percent. * Bulls, weighing 500 pounds and over, 1.9 million, unchanged. * Calves under 500 pounds, 25.7 million, down 3 percent. * All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.6 million, down 6 percent. The 2014 calf crop is expected to be 33.6 million, down 1 percent from 2013 and down 2 percent from 2012. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 24.3 million, down 2 percent from 2013 and down 3 percent from 2012. This report was approved on July 25, 2014. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson James M. Harris Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - United States: July 1, 2012 and 2014 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Percent of Class : 2012 : 2014 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 head ----- percent : Cattle and calves ...................: 97,800.0 95,000.0 97 : Cows and heifers that have calved ...: 39,700.0 39,000.0 98 Beef cows .........................: 30,500.0 29,733.0 97 Milk cows .........................: 9,200.0 9,267.0 101 : Heifers 500 pounds and over .........: 15,700.0 14,900.0 95 For beef cow replacement ..........: 4,200.0 4,100.0 98 For milk cow replacement ..........: 4,100.0 3,900.0 95 Other heifers .....................: 7,400.0 6,900.0 93 : Steers 500 pounds and over ..........: 14,000.0 13,500.0 96 Bulls 500 pounds and over ...........: 1,900.0 1,900.0 100 Calves under 500 pounds .............: 26,500.0 25,700.0 97 : Calf crop ...........................: 34,279.0 33,600.0 98 : Cattle on feed ......................: 12,300.0 11,600.0 94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period - United States: 2012, 2013, and Preliminary 2014 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2014 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Period : : Percent of : : Percent of : : Percent of : Number : total : Number : total : Number : total ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 head percent 1,000 head percent 1,000 head percent : January 1 - June 30 ........: 25,000.0 72.9 24,700.0 72.8 24,300.0 72.3 July 1 - December 31 .......: 9,279.0 27.1 9,230.0 27.2 9,300.0 27.7 : Total ......................: 34,279.0 100.0 33,930.0 100.0 33,600.0 100.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2014. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for July cattle inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 95.0 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The table below also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 430,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,000,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 2 times and has been above the latest estimate 5 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates [Based on data from the past 10 years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : : Difference between : : : : : first and latest : Number of : Root : 90 percent : estimates : years Item : mean : confidence :-------------------------------------------- :square : level : : : : First : First : error : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : above : below : : : : : : : latest : latest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : percent ---------- 1,000 head --------- number : All cattle .........: 0.5 1.0 950 430 0 1,000 5 2 : All cows ...........: 0.7 1.3 507 210 0 600 5 1 : Calf crop ..........: 1.6 2.9 974 458 0 1,098 6 2 : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040 Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs .................. (202) 720-3106 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 690-3236 Tiffany Hora - Livestock Slaughter ........... (515) 284-4340 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Vacant - Sheep and Goats...................... (202) 720-3570 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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