Mt An 2 (7-09) Cattle National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 24, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle" call Jason Hardegree at 202-720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2009, totaled 101.8 million head, 1 percent below the 103.3 million on July 1, 2008. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.4 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2008. * Beef cows, at 32.2 million, were down 1 percent from July 1, 2008. * Milk cows, at 9.2 million, were down 2 percent from July 1, 2008. Other class estimates on July 1, 2009 and the changes from July 1, 2008, are as follows: * All heifers 500 pounds and over, 16.1 million, down 1 percent. * Beef replacement heifers, 4.5 million, down 2 percent. * Milk replacement heifers, 3.9 million, unchanged. * Other heifers, 7.7 million, down 1 percent. * Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 14.4 million, down 2 percent. * Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.1 million, unchanged. * Calves under 500 pounds, 27.8 million, down 1 percent. * All cattle and calves on feed for slaughter, 11.6 million, down 5 percent. Calf Crop Down 1 Percent The 2009 calf crop is expected to be 35.6 million, down 1 percent from 2008. Calves born during the first half of the year are estimated at 25.8 million, down 2 percent from 2008. This report was approved on July 24, 2009. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Joseph J. Prusacki Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, United States, July 1, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2009 as Class : 2008 : 2009 : % of 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent : Cattle and Calves : 103,300 101,800 99 : Cows and Heifers That Have Calved : 42,000 41,400 99 Beef Cows : *32,650 32,200 99 Milk Cows : *9,350 9,200 98 : Heifers 500 Pounds and Over : 16,300 16,100 99 For Beef Cow Replacement : 4,600 4,500 98 For Milk Cow Replacement : 3,900 3,900 100 Other Heifers : 7,800 7,700 99 : Steers 500 Pounds and Over : 14,700 14,400 98 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over : 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds : 28,200 27,800 99 : Calf Crop : 36,113 35,600 99 : Cattle on Feed : 12,200 11,600 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Calf Crop: Number and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period, United States, 2008 and Preliminary Calf Crop, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 :----------------------------------------------------------- Period : : % of : : % of : Number : Total : Number : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : Jan 1 - Jun 30 : 26,300.0 72.8 25,800.0 72.5 Jul 1 - Dec 31 : 9,812.5 27.2 9,800.0 27.5 : Total : 36,112.5 100.0 35,600.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of July 1 Cattle and Calves Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2009. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National and State indications and analysis. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for July cattle inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 101.8 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. The table below also shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 430,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,000,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has not been below the latest estimate, but has been above the latest estimate 8 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90 Percent : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Latest : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates : Years Item : Mean :------------------------------------------------------------- :Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: Head :Average :Smallest:Largest : Above : Below : : : : : : : Latest : Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- Number : All Cattle: 0.5 1.0 1,018 430 0 1,000 8 0 : All Cows : 0.7 1.3 538 210 0 600 6 0 : Calf Crop : 1.6 2.9 1,032 449 0 1,137 8 1 : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data from the past 10 years. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products..............................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.......................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed.................(202) 720-3040 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter..................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats.........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows..............(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs..............................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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