LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY September 25, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-33. Note: Tables in this report will not be properly formatted unless printed or displayed with both a fixed-pitch font, such as Courier, and an 80-character line width. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Broiler Production Increasing Fourth-quarter production could rise at least 5 percent if bird placements continue recent strong increases. Placements of broiler chicks in the 15 weekly reporting states have begun to increase significantly compared with last year. Declining placements had been reported since April, but growth of 1 to 4 percent have been reported since mid-August. These birds will be slaughtered in the early fall. High broiler prices and declining feed costs are boosting producers' returns encouraging expansions in placements. September production is expected to increase about 6 percent from last year's heat-restricted production. Birds slaughtered are expected to increase about 2 percent, but increases in average liveweight will further boost production. Losses of broilers due to Hurricane Fran have been reported to be between 1.4 and 1.7 million birds. This represents about 1 percent of 1 week's slaughter, but will be spread over several weeks with minimal overall effects. The slaughter report for the week ending September 7 showed a nearly 2 percent decline from last year, mostly reflecting plant operation disruptions due to power outages and transportation problems. Slaughter for the week ending September 14 showed a 2-percent increase as plants returned to more normal operation. Wholesale broiler prices remain above a year ago in September even though production is increasing. Strong export demand appears to be a factor in supporting higher prices. Leg and leg quarters, the primary export items, have shown more price strength than breast meat prices this summer. Leg quarter prices rose temporarily due to plant disruptions connected with the hurricane damage. Turkey Loss Estimates Vary Widely Estimates of the number of turkeys lost during Hurricane Fran have ranged from 200,000 to 1 million birds (5 to 20 percent of 1 week's slaughter). National slaughter for the week ending September 7 was 17 percent above a year ago and 31 percent above the previous week. On a regional basis 38 percent fewer birds were slaughtered in the South Atlantic than in the previous week, while the Northeast, South Central, and West regions more than doubled their slaughter. Hen turkey prices have shown little response to hurricane losses, increasing by half a cent per pound in the following week. Prices continue well below last year as strong production increases and higher stock levels pressure the pre-holiday market. September turkey production is expected to increase about 6 percent, with about 4 percent more birds and a 2-percent increase in liveweight. Negative net returns during 1996 are expected to slow production increases during 1997. Egg Production Up Substantially Third quarter egg production is expected to be about 5 percent above last year because of a stronger gain in productivity and flock size than had been anticipated. July table egg production increased 6 percent from last year, with a 3-percent larger flock and 2-percent higher productivity. Stronger egg prices during July and August allowed producers to earn positive net returns and encouraged them to keep more layers in the flock, up 4 percent on August 1. Wholesale egg prices for the third quarter are expected to average about 10 cents per dozen above last year. Strong breaking and export demand along with continued growth in egg use by fast food establishments are boosting prices. Broiler Exports Down from Year Earlier After posting strong growth for most of 1996, broiler exports in July were 5.8 percent below a year earlier. Declines in exports to Hong Kong and Estonia were partially offset by higher exports to Russia, Mexico, and China. Broiler exports to Hong Kong in July totaled 81 million pounds, down 37 percent from the previous year's unusually large total. Some of the decrease may have been due to the continued growth in direct exports to China, which likely reduced shipments to Hong Kong for transhipment to China. Over the first 7 months of 1996, broiler shipments to China have been 101 million pounds, more than double the previous year. The other large change in July was a decrease in exports to Estonia. In July 1995, broiler exports to Estonia were 32 million pounds. Exports to Estonia have remained strong this year, but only totaled 8 million pounds in July 1996. Estonia is chiefly a transshipment point for product going to Russia. Rapid Expansion in Other Chicken Exports Exports of other chicken products continue to exceed 1995 levels by a wide margin. In July, other chicken exports were 22.6 million pounds, up three-fold from a year earlier. Almost all the growth has come from exports to Canada, Hong Kong, and Japan. During July these countries were the destination for 75 percent of all the exports and in the first 7 months of 1996 they have imported 69 million pounds, 63 percent of the total. Turkey Exports to Russia Soar Over the last 18 months, Russia has become the second largest export market for turkey. Exports to Russia in July were 22 million pounds, more than double the previous year, and 53 percent of all turkey exports that month. With this large monthly total, exports to Russia, so far in 1996, have reached 74 million pounds. If exports continue at anywhere near this pace, it is possible that Russia will pass Mexico as the largest export market for U.S. turkeys. Almost all the growth has come from higher exports of turkey parts, ground turkey, or mechanically deboned meat turkey meat. Only 6 percent of total turkey exports consists of whole birds. Hong Kong and Japan Prime Markets for Egg Exports With both shell egg and egg product exports rising in July, total egg exports were the equivalent of 22.7 million dozen. Hong Kong is the dominant market for shell eggs, accounting for 48 percent of all exports in the first 7 months of 1996. Egg product exports go chiefly to Japan, Canada, and Mexico. Shipments to Mexico have been especially strong and over the first 7 months of 1996, are up over 250 percent. Larger exports to Mexico of dried egg albumen are the chief cause of the increase. Hog Prices Decline In September, hog prices averaged about $54 per cwt, down $5 from August, reflecting increasing weekly slaughter rates, a slowdown in pork exports, and a sharp decline in belly prices. Weekly slaughter typically rises seasonally from August to November. Although hog prices have declined, producers' returns remain above breakeven. Retail prices averaged $2.31 per pound in August, compared with $1.97 a year ago, mostly reflecting tighter domestic supplies and strong demand. Bacon prices are sharply higher, reflecting increased use in fast-food products and low belly stocks for most of 1996. The sharp decline in belly prices since mid-August should result in lower bacon prices later this year. The September Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released on September 27, will provide new information on inventories, pig crops, and farrowing intentions. Pork Exports Decline U.S. pork exports in July were down 19 percent from June because of lower seasonal demand, higher U.S. hog and pork prices, and higher minimum import prices in Japan. The higher minimum import prices are due to the "Safeguard" which raised minimum import prices 24 percent on July 1. The U.S. exported 30 million pounds of pork to Japan in July, down 29 percent from June. However, the Japanese trade in June was marked by strong imports as importers took action to beat the higher July 1 import prices. U.S. exports of fresh pork to Japan in July increased 5 percent over a year ago. Such increases are in line with expectations that U.S. exports of fresh product to Japan will remain largely intact, even while the Safeguard is in effect. Exports to Russia in July were 6.4 million pounds, off 20 percent from June. Higher U.S. prices and lower seasonal demand probably account for the decline. July exports to Canada were up almost 20 percent from June. Canadian processors are demanding more U.S. product because of the lower Canadian slaughter. Large numbers of Canadian hogs are being exported to the U.S. for slaughter due to higher U.S. hog prices, favorable exchange rates, and lower countervailing duties. Moreover, large quantities of Canadian pork were exported to Japan, further lowering available pork supplies. U.S. exports to Canada are expected to remain buoyant, as Canadian herds are expected to decline in 1997 due to higher costs. Exports to Mexico in July were also higher than month earlier levels. Higher GDP growth in Mexico this year has increased disposable income. When incomes increase, demand for meat in family diets usually increases. Brisk Dairy Product Demand Continues Economic growth continues to support demand for dairy products. Sustained growth in consumer income and relatively low unemployment have boosted consumers' willingness to spend on cheese and some foods containing dairy products. General economic conditions are expected to remain favorable, although not necessarily to the same extent, during the remainder of 1996 and 1997. Retail dairy prices in the second half of 1996 and 1997 will rise more rapidly than most price categories, limiting growth in commercial use. However, response to these price increases may be somewhat muted as some other food categories are rising even more dramatically. In addition, dairy prices are coming off an extended period of near-stability. During 1990-95, retail dairy prices rose only 1 percent per year. Commercial use during the second half of 1996 is expected to be near or slightly below a year earlier. Pipeline stocks built during the second quarter probably were reduced substantially during the summer. This pattern boosted spring disappearance at the expense of the third quarters use. In addition, final sales likely will be less robust once consumers more fully feel recent wholesale and farm prices increases. Sales are projected to grow only fractionally in 1997. Even small gains would represent fairly strong demand given the large expected increases in retail prices during late 1996 and the first half of 1997. In addition, commercial exports are not expected to be significant next year. Fed Cattle Inventories Rising Cattle on feed inventories continue to rise as grain prices decline seasonally and fed cattle prices are supported by marketings below a year earlier. Corn prices in Central Illinois averaged $4.48 in August and likely declined to about $3.77 in September as the new feed year began. Consequently, large numbers of heavier weight feeder cattle have been placed on feed as feedlots became profitable and as late fall and winter fed cattle marketings could be hedged at profits approaching $100 a head. Fed cattle marketings were below a year earlier in July and August. Steer and heifer slaughter in September was likely down 15 percent, suggesting that more cattle, at heavier weights, are likely to be carried into the fourth quarter. Net feedlot placements rose 6 percent above a year ago in July, while August placements were up 19 percent. Some of the most attractive hedges, both on fed cattle and cost of gain, were possible in September, likely resulting in even more placements. Lighter weight stocker feeder cattle prices have strengthened over the past month as fall grazing prospects improved. Heavier weight feeder cattle prices have increased only about $2 per cwt as supplies rise seasonally and feedlot operators remain cautious. Although fed cattle prices have been strong in September, competition for the consumer dollar has also increased as pork supplies and cow slaughter have both risen. Cow slaughter in September and for the third quarter was likely up about 3 and 15 percent, respectively. Utility cow prices again declined below $30 per cwt and imported processing beef was trading in the mid-$70's per cwt, down from the low $80's in August. Prices for barrows and gilts peaked in August and have dropped into the mid-$50's in September. Both processing beef and pork, along with continued large supplies of poultry, will become increasingly attractive specials against the higher priced fed cattle. Beef exports continued to decline from the very strong April figures, and likely remained soft during mid-summer. July exports to Japan were down 8 percent from a year earlier, the first year-to-year decline since April 1995. However, as health concerns due to E. coli abate and consumption for all foods begins to improve, stocks will be worked down and exports to Japan may actually strengthen in the coming months. Exports to the Korean Republic continue below a year earlier, while exports to Mexico strengthen. Beef imports remain below a year earlier, but the import pace picked up as supplies destined for Japan began to seek alternative markets, just as U.S. prices were strengthening. Feeder cattle imports from Mexico remain well below the very large 1995 figure. However, slaughter steer and heifer imports from Canada in July remained relatively large, but represented only about 3 percent of U.S. monthly steer and heifer slaughter. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Broilers, Turkeys, Eggs), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle, Red Meat Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy, Dairy Trade), LaVerne Williams (Statistics). MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,086 11,075 11,142 10,926 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,062 7,984 7,977 7,968 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,375 1,387 1,397 1,371 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,793 12,848 12,857 12,608 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.40 14.60 15.30 15.70 Milk for fluid use 12.50 14.70 15.40 15.70 Manuf. grade milk 11.30 13.60 13.90 14.30 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.55 13.92 14.49 14.94 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 79.5 129.3 145.3 145.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.2 151.5 158.2 167.6 Barrels 125.3 145.8 152.3 160.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.7 129.8 132.6 130.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,442 1,708 1,704 1,744 Nonfat dry milk 2,160 1,928 1,908 1,863 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 47.1 33.0 28.9 30.9 Commercial American cheese 361.2 381.2 385.3 386.7 Other cheese 121.0 152.1 150.3 139.1 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 140.2 86.5 82.5 77.4 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,596 5,575 5,501 5,445 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,729 6,491 6,459 6,273 All Government (mf. basis) 477 25 21 21 All Government (ss. basis) 260 20 20 9 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 26.1 7.1 5.0 4.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 77.1 7.5 7.9 6.8 All products (ss basis 2/) 324.5 89.3 65.3 53.3 Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 85.0 100.7 72.9 72.0 American cheese 262.4 299.3 281.9 267.2 Other-than-American cheese 297.4 334.8 319.4 308.8 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 123.6 119.3 128.8 129.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 7939.2 8547.4 7911.1 7729.3 Nonfat dry milk 107.6 112.6 93.4 80.8 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 80.5 105.1 77.1 70.0 American cheese 251.9 286.6 278.1 268.9 Other-than-American cheese 328.5 354.5 344.0 346.4 Nonfat dry milk 85.2 123.3 91.0 82.2 All products (mf. basis) 13064.0 13650.0 13009.0 13048.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 252.6 206.2 211.6 257.9 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Sep-95 Sep-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 18,838 19,316 2,194 2,260 1,918 Veal 228 270 32 32 29 Pork 13,122 12,634 1,339 1,394 1,410 Lamb 213 198 20 20 20 Total red meat 32,401 32,418 3,585 3,706 3,377 Broilers 18,685 19,835 2,219 2,250 2,150 Other chicken 375 377 42 38 40 Turkeys 3,782 4,026 489 460 425 Total poultry 22,842 24,238 2,750 2,748 2,615 Total meat & poultry 55,243 56,656 6,335 6,454 5,992 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 26,750 27,638 3,148 3,210 2,726 Steers 14,003 13,996 1,644 1,647 1,355 Heifers 7,773 8,043 925 942 785 Beef Cows 2,315 2,918 317 351 300 Dairy Cows 2,144 2,208 222 244 226 Bulls and stags 515 532 60 65 60 Calves 1,044 1,299 160 158 145 Sheep 3,441 3,124 326 330 328 Hogs 71,129 68,592 7,338 7,675 7,730 Barrows & gilts 67,594 65,316 6,980 7,310 7,380 Sows 2,849 2,765 310 320 290 Broilers 5,556,679 5,699,549 651,543 655,000 620,000 Turkeys 206,541 217,057 26,511 25,500 25,000 Sep-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 723 701 704 711 711 Calves 211 214 204 206 203 Sheep 60 64 63 61 62 Hogs 182 186 184 183 183 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 344.9 307.4 306.7 291.1 304.9 Pork 354.0 381.3 351.8 322.7 320.2 Bellies 17.4 63.5 56.8 28.5 18.9 Hams 125.9 79.8 79.8 78.9 83.6 Total chicken 499.2 655.2 665.7 623.5 600.9 Turkey 655.3 573.1 664.2 705.9 720.1 Frozen eggs 18.0 11.4 11.7 13.5 14.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Estimates LIVESTOCK PRICES Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 63.80 64.07 67.15 70.75 Nebraska Direct 63.23 63.79 66.82 70.90 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 36.17 34.39 33.76 32.65 Utility boning 34.13 32.89 32.15 30.75 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 66.46 60.65 65.88 65.65 600-650 lb. 65.69 61.05 64.22 63.80 750-800 lb. 66.03 62.38 63.53 63.55 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 58.33 52.70 58.28 57.95 700-750 lb. 62.42 59.28 60.64 60.10 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 48.44 59.20 59.81 53.75 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 48.89 59.13 59.59 54.25 Sows 6 Markets 36.94 48.25 50.84 48.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 33.29 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 80.00 92.67 83.75 84.00 Ewes, Good 32.13 39.83 38.36 41.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 80.84 93.17 87.50 93.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.85 4.70 4.48 3.45 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.00 5.29 4.96 4.65 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 180.80 252.48 261.19 275.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 86.80 92.90 96.00 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 82.30 89.60 92.90 NA ---------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jun-96 Jul-96 Jan - Jan - Jul-95 Jul-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 31,018 59,520 416,506 294,518 New Zealand 53,486 49,900 419,282 369,573 Canada 51,201 51,103 243,248 324,615 Brazil 5,515 9,323 37,661 49,283 Argentina 10,419 10,789 95,223 88,134 Central America 5,124 5,880 87,300 61,048 Other 7,283 9,074 13,053 41,687 Total 164,047 195,589 1,312,271 1,228,859 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 88,239 79,934 539,028 661,027 Canada 27,647 27,151 172,609 178,862 Mexico 14,321 16,082 51,905 85,360 Korea, Rep. 11,423 12,125 146,396 121,870 Caribbean 1,022 977 6,742 7,136 Other 11,349 11,611 58,339 90,201 Total 154,000 147,880 975,020 1,144,456 Cattle Imports Mexico 8,382 5,869 1,154,926 225,733 Canada 118,961 117,522 670,378 970,332 Over 700 lbs. 112,791 112,069 629,352 878,589 500-700 lbs. 2,049 1,006 3,782 55,347 Total 127,343 123,395 1,825,353 1,196,102 Cattle Exports Mexico 11,454 10,842 6,149 52,461 Canada 3,160 2,732 41,005 21,803 Total 16,229 14,012 52,114 90,714 Lamb Imports Australia 2,155 1,844 10,532 15,439 New Zealand 1,896 2,116 12,952 14,379 Total 4,052 3,960 23,846 30,115 Mutton Imports 1,458 2,477 14,258 13,081 Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 9/17/95 9/15/96 % Chg Canada 246,394 343,794 3953.0% TRQ Countries 773,463 657,698 -1496.7% Australia 354,203 274,240 -2257.5% New Zealand 344,622 304,185 -1173.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jun-96 Jul-96 Jan - Jan - Jul-95 Jul-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 39,274 35,956 264,742 244,772 Denmark 9,494 12,307 85,660 72,994 Poland 855 753 6,953 5,806 Hungary 917 1,060 6,430 5,629 Netherlands 598 997 6,357 6,030 Other 2,430 2,340 20,369 17,188 Total 53,569 53,413 390,511 352,419 Pork Exports Japan 41,766 29,588 188,140 339,549 Canada 6,954 8,296 27,789 57,281 Mexico 2,531 3,580 34,760 27,909 Caribbean 678 863 6,229 5,744 Other 17,848 14,490 184,275 160,714 Total 69,777 56,817 441,193 591,197 Hog Imports Head Canada 195,472 248,513 824,627 1,509,268 Under 110 lb 46,765 72,341 366,434 440,543 Total 195,485 248,513 826,730 1,509,432 Hog Exports Total 1,160 2,698 6,954 40,567 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 25,063 21,100 138,657 139,548 Mexico 16,807 19,685 109,836 121,224 Hong Kong 68,794 80,894 570,617 574,418 Singapore 4,523 3,804 28,658 29,707 Canada 5,793 6,129 41,304 42,592 Former USSR 115,117 152,826 742,811 1,007,186 Total 307,556 351,803 2,102,337 2,483,828 Turkey Exports Mexico 12,681 11,229 70,623 81,361 S. Korea 1,054 459 21,986 13,373 Hong Kong 2,618 2,817 10,282 10,878 Total 45,169 40,979 171,719 229,783 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,257 9,360 56,257 65,232 PRODUCTION INDICATORS Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,391 7,253 6,578 6,337 Net placements 1,613 1,021 1,437 1,928 Marketings 1,815 1,696 1,678 1,653 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 560,343 571,385 562,657 566,490 Chicks hatched (000)/2 674,068 670,593 677,611 688,591 Hatching egg layers/1 48,472 50,097 49,332 48,707 Pullets placed (000) 6,475 6,169 6,422 6,518 Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,283 5,629 5,630 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 35,561 38,082 37,619 36,141 Poults placed (000) 26,596 27,943 28,881 27,741 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 433 436 456 456 Table egg layers, (000)/1 235,333 241,641 242,652 244,923 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.1 71.3 72.5 72.2 Chicks hatched (000) 31,434 33,998 33,828 32,474 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,238 6,469 7,113 7,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 57.61 56.87 59.13 61.69 Selling price 63.80 64.07 67.15 70.75 Net margin 6.19 7.20 8.02 9.06 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.72 45.36 48.76 49.22 Selling price 48.89 59.13 59.59 54.25 Net margin 12.17 13.77 10.83 5.03 Broiler Wholesale cost 49.91 59.18 58.58 58.66 Wholesale price 61.48 64.58 64.07 64.00 Net margin 11.57 5.40 5.49 5.34 Turkey Wholesale cost 61.81 76.38 78.02 77.04 Wholesale price 72.60 67.46 67.54 67.00 Net margin 10.79 -8.92 -10.48 -10.04 Egg Wholesale cost 68.17 83.69 83.50 81.03 Wholesale price 80.56 84.39 92.11 94.00 Net margin 12.39 0.70 8.61 12.97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate WHOLESALE PRICES Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 105.82 101.53 104.43 104.75 Choice 1-3 700-850# 104.12 101.01 103.34 103.00 Select 1-3 700-850# 95.61 94.47 98.77 97.75 Cutter Cow 64.34 58.96 61.10 57.60 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 83.28 82.84 86.31 79.65 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 90.69 81.70 87.38 79.00 Hide & offal value 8.32 9.05 9.65 9.90 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 194.35 166.61 NA 175.65 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 67.10 79.08 79.97 74.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 117.63 126.16 118.18 111.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 54.43 89.49 88.40 68.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 70.92 77.27 81.03 81.75 Trimmings, 72% fresh 53.05 68.45 69.95 67.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 172.75 199.25 206.38 169.00 55-65 lb., Choice 172.75 199.25 NA 167.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 61.48 64.58 64.07 64.00 Georgia dock 60.00 64.83 65.07 65.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 195.76 204.43 201.06 192.00 Breast, Ribs on 92.47 103.71 98.31 93.00 Legs, whole 55.92 59.59 57.88 59.00 Leg quarters 41.15 41.95 42.34 45.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 73.10 70.50 71.24 71.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 72.92 65.66 64.94 64.00 Drumsticks 29.77 24.40 31.44 34.00 Wings, full cut 30.49 31.02 36.81 39.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 80.56 84.39 92.11 94.00 New York 77.05 80.95 86.86 90.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 284.4 276.3 277.6 281.1 Beef - All Fresh 256.4 248.3 248.0 251.2 Ground Beef 132.8 132.4 135.2 139.1 Rib roast 495.9 488.0 482.4 492.5 T-bone steak 612.7 581.9 595.6 597.1 Pork 197.3 222.5 225.7 231.4 Bacon 196.8 249.3 254.2 268.2 Chops 325.6 353.3 348.1 350.2 Picnic 112.8 118.0 122.4 126.6 Chicken - Composite 141.8 150.6 149.9 151.9 Whole, fresh 90.8 96.8 97.2 99.0 Breast - bone in 194.7 208.9 202.4 205.3 Leg quarter 115.0 120.5 123.9 125.2 Turkey; whole frozen 106.0 104.1 104.4 108.6 Eggs, Grade A, Large 98.4 94.5 104.2 107.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 152.9 156.7 157.0 157.3 All food 148.4 152.6 153.2 153.7 All meat 135.1 138.8 139.6 141.8 Beef & veal 133.0 131.9 132.3 134.4 Pork 136.0 148.8 150.4 153.5 Poultry 142.8 151.3 152.7 154.5 Dairy Products 132.8 139.8 142.0 144.6 Fluid milk & cream 132.1 140.7 142.4 144.4 Manufactured products 134.2 139.5 142.2 145.5 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 28.2 26.7 24.0 22.7 Wholesale to retail 126.6 121.7 122.0 121.2 Farmers share (%) 46.0 46.0 47.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 27.8 28.0 28.9 32.2 Wholesale to retail 91.2 105.6 102.9 104.8 Farmers share (%) 40.0 40.0 42.0 41.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 73.3 79.5 79.9 81.2 Retail to consumer Turkey 28.2 28.0 27.9 32.1 Eggs 23.2 13.1 20.8 16.1 Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,899 7,050 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.6 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,744 25,950 Pork 17,658 17,812 17,067 17,350 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,416 27,900 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,427 5,500 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,071 75,644 77,641 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,382 5,475 Milk 153,626 155,643 154,062 155,400 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 155,035 156,100 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 259 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.6 67.0 Pork 53.1 52.4 48.9 49.1 Broilers 69.8 69.7 71.5 74.1 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 210.1 212.1 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.1 239.2 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 64-65 63-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 60-61 62-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.58 40-40 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53-54 50-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 60-61 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 67-68 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 83-84 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 15.1-15.3 13.9-15.0 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 14.2-14.4 12.7-13.8 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 2,081 2,250 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,074 2,025 Pork exports 531 770 973 1,064 Pork imports 743 664 614 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,607 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 401 405 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,617 18,555 18,906 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,929 6,969 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.7 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 Production, million lbs. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,475 6,325 Pork 4,389 4,103 4,150 4,425 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,550 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,375 1,400 Total Meat 18,849 18,973 18,775 19,047 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,323 1,350 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,111 39,751 37,500 37,700 Commercial use 37,856 39,979 38,500 38,700 Net removals 26 33 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.9 17.5 16.9 16.3 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.7 Broilers 17.8 18.4 17.8 17.5 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.4 6.4 Total Meat 52.0 52.3 52.0 53.8 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 59.5 60.4 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 ERR 65-66 64-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 ERR 62-64 62-66 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 ERR 33-33 62-66 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 ERR 57-58 53-55 Broiler,12 City 56.20 ERR 64-65 57-59 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 ERR 65-66 70-74 Eggs, New York 89.60 ERR 83-84 78-82 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14 16 16.6-17.3 Milk, M-W 12.67 14 15 15.5-16.0 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 452 544 535 550 Beef/veal imports 508 526 540 500 Pork exports 221 313 225 214 Pork imports 144 155 148 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,175 1,300 Turkey exports 96 93 92 120 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,005 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 Unemployment rate, % 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.7 Production, million lbs. Beef 6,100 Pork 4,275 Broilers 6,850 Turkeys 1,275 Total Meat 18,762 Eggs, mil doz. 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 38,700 Commercial use 37,800 Net removals 200 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 16.1 Pork 12.1 Broilers 18.6 Turkeys 4.0 Total Meat 51.7 Eggs, number 59.1 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 60-64 Brk Cows,S. Falls 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-54 Broiler,12 City 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 Eggs, New York 72-78 Milk, all at plant 14.6-15.9 Milk, M-W 13.0-14.1 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 500 Pork exports 242 Pork imports 154 Broiler exports 1,150 Turkey exports 87 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 END-OF-FILE