LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY February 26, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-26. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle Outlook More Favorable Cattle and calves on farms and ranches on January 1, 1996, were up 1 percent from a year earlier according to the latest Cattle report. The report revised down the January and July inventories for 1995 and showed a more moderate expansion in beef herds during 1994 and 1995. The January 1996 beef cow inventory was more than 3 percent below earlier projections, indicating a smaller calf crop in 1996 and lower slaughter supplies and beef production in 1997. Improving producer returns appear more likely now, assuming normal crop development this summer and favorable grazing conditions in 1996-97. Cow-calf operators that had to market calves last fall failed to cover cash costs, but other operators had sufficient forage to carry larger numbers through the winter and avoid liquidating breeding inventories. Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on January 1 were up 3 percent from a year earlier, despite larger on-feed inventories and a 13-percent increase in calf slaughter during 1995. Most of these animals likely are steers carried over into the new year. Feeder cattle supplies could begin to tighten as the year progresses. Smaller feeder cattle imports from Mexico are anticipated due to some improvement in pasture conditions and sharply reduced cattle inventories in Mexico. Thus, feedlots may have to bid prices up as spring grazing season begins and grain supply prospects improve. More dairy calves also may be placed on feed, lowering second-half calf slaughter and veal production. Cattle imports from Mexico during January-September 1995 were up over 80 percent from a year earlier. Imports slowed during October-November, and while rising seasonally, were up only about 11 percent from a year earlier. In January through mid-February 1996, bi-weekly imports reported by APHIS dropped sharply below year-earlier levels. Cattle on Feed Statistics Revamped Cattle on feed statistics are being modified in 1996, and no longer will be comparable to historical data. The 7-State monthly and 13-State quarterly cattle on feed reports have been replaced with 7-State, and U.S. monthly reports for feedlots with 1,000+ head of capacity. Feedlots with less than 1,000 head capacity will only be reported in January and July of each year. Final data on the old series were released by NASS in the February Cattle on Feed report. Total cattle on feed on January 1 were up 3 percent from a year earlier, with inventories in feedlots with 1,000+ head capacity up nearly 10 percent. Smaller producers operating feedlots with 1,000 head or less capacity, and likely having a higher cost structure, reported on-feed inventories down 18 percent. Many of the smaller feedlots are on mixed crop-livestock operations. A large number of these producers apparently decided to market grain at very favorable prices in second-half 1995 rather than feed it to livestock. However, as grain prices decline over the next couple of years, these producers likely will return to cattle feeding. Cattle on feed on February 1 in the 7-monthly reporting States were up 2 percent from a year earlier. Fed cattle marketings are going to remain above a year earlier through spring, and unless grain prices move sharply higher, could remain near a year earlier in the second half. Higher feed costs are more than being offset by reduced bids for feeder cattle. Stronger grain prices since December and declining fed cattle prices have increased pressure on feeder cattle prices. Calf prices in February were down about $25 per cwt from a year earlier, and yearling prices traded about $20 lower. A year ago, 500- to 550-pound calves were selling at a $10 per cwt premium to 750- to 800-pound yearlings. These same cattle recently sold at a $5 premium. Higher grain prices are causing feeder cattle prices to decline as feedlots adjust prices lower to maintain profit margins. Until grain costs decline or fed cattle prices rise, feeder cattle prices are unlikely to rise much above the low- to mid-$60's, even as spring grazing begins. Broiler Prices Weakening Wholesale broiler prices weakened in February as production increased and retail sales slowed seasonally. Dark meat parts prices remain relatively strong, with leg quarters 20-30 percent above a year ago. However, prices could weaken significantly if export growth slows due to increased tariffs in Russia and China. Currently, discussions are being held between officials of the Russian government and representatives of USDA and the U.S. poultry industry in an attempt to head off a possible stoppage of poultry shipments to Russia. Russian officials had raised concerns about various health issues involving exports of U.S. poultry. In response to these concerns, Russia has said they would halt imports of U.S poultry arriving after the middle of March. The U.S. poultry industry is working with USDA to meet the Russian concerns and keep poultry exports to Russia moving. Russia is the largest market for U.S. poultry, valued at over $500 million in 1995. Exports to Russia, mostly frozen leg quarters, represents approximately 37 percent of all broiler exports. Broiler production will increase in February based on 4-5 percent more chicks placed in December and weight increases of 1-2 percent per bird. The potential broiler-type hatchery supply flock will be up from a year ago through summer, suggesting continued increases in broiler production. Turkey Prices Remain Strong February production is increasing compared to a year earlier, with 2-3 percent more birds expected to be available for slaughter and weight per bird about 2 percent greater. First-quarter whole turkey prices are holding above last year. Increased feed costs have squeezed producers' returns and may hold production expansion below 6 percent, which was indicated by turkey producers in a December survey. Dark meat prices are weaker than a year ago, indicating continued slow growth in export markets. Egg Prices Still High New York large egg prices declined in February from January highs that resulted from weather disruptions in eastern markets, but remain about 30 percent above a year earlier. High prices have kept producers profitable in spite of high feed costs, but are also limiting the number of eggs that are being processed by breakers. Cold storage stocks of frozen eggs were about 30 percent below last year on January 1. Breakers will probably buy aggressively later in the year when egg production is expected to increase and prices decline. Pork Production Exceeds Expectations Commercial hog slaughter during January-February is running near expectations, but heavier slaughter weights are adding to production. If this pace continues into March, first-quarter production will be about the same as last year's record. Earlier projections were for a 2-percent decline in slaughter and production. Sow slaughter, as a percent of the total hog slaughter, still provides no evidence of liquidation. This suggests that producers remain in a holding pattern until a clearer indication of future grain prices emerges. Weaker cash hog prices in January caused cash receipts to dip below cash costs for some producers, but price advances in February alleviated most of the red ink. This situation may be short term, however. Production costs will continue rising into the spring quarter, and live hog prices will struggle to maintain their present strength. Year-over-year increases in supplies are expected to pressure prices beginning in April, even as supplies decline seasonally into summer. Current market strength is coming from several pork cuts, but higher wholesale cutout values are being driven primarily by sharply higher belly prices. Pork bellies in cold storage at the beginning of the year were down 22 percent from a year earlier, and dropped even further by February 1. Strong export, food service, and institutional sales are pulling inventories down while driving current prices higher. Seasonal demand for Easter hams added about $5 per cwt to wholesale prices in February. But additional price gains may be limited and only take prices to the mid-$60's per cwt over the next few weeks. So far, prices are tracking very close to a year earlier, when large pork supplies held weekly average prices for 17- to 20-pound hams below $60 through Easter week. Milk Production To Rise Slightly The lowest milk-feed price ratios since the mid-seventies will limit growth in milk production this year and trim expansion in milk per cow. Farmers will be conservative about increases in concentrate feeding, and growth in the number of cows receiving bovine somatotropin (bST) may slow. Milk per cow is projected to increase less than 2 percent in 1996, about the same as 1995's weather-limited rise. Milk cow numbers are expected to decline about 1 percent in 1996, slightly more than in 1995. The 1-percent rise in milk production is expected to be easily absorbed by expansion in commercial use. Sales of milkfat and skim solids are expected to increase 1 to 2 percent in 1996. Butter exports are expected to absorb the available butter, and domestic cheese sales are expected to grow. Fluid milk sales and nondairy use of nonfat dry milk are projected to be steady. The 1996 surplus of skim solids will be small, while the milkfat surplus could be very small. Removals of skim solids are projected to be equivalent to 2 to 4 billion pounds of milk. Most of the surplus will be exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). The milkfat surplus could be less than 1 billion pounds milk equivalent. Tight markets are expected to generate higher milk prices, particularly during the first half. The 1996 average milk price is projected to rise 3-6 percent from 1995's $12.78 per cwt, to possibly the highest since 1990. Prices will be particularly sensitive to domestic demand for skim solids, variations in milk production, and international butter prices. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,031 8,420 8,685 8,667 Net placements 1,543 1,743 1,394 1,318 Marketings 1,484 1,478 1,412 1,681 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 534,462 524,729 571,143 570,863 Chicks hatched (000)/2 661,389 626,487 689,596 700,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,208 49,445 50,487 50,502 Pullets placed (000) 5,748 6,666 6,023 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,528 5,029 4,155 5,250 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 34,881 31,681 31,697 35,760 Poults placed (000) 27,038 24,416 25,130 27,482 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 451 442 463 460 Table egg layers, (000)/1 248,343 242,405 245,301 246,703 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.2 71.7 73.6 72.2 Chicks hatched (000) 31,527 28,539 30,012 30,500 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9,951 6,881 7,833 9,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 64.91 60.18 61.70 63.00 Selling price 73.79 66.14 64.63 62.95 Net margin 8.88 5.96 2.93 -0.05 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.58 38.44 39.18 39.90 Selling price 39.60 44.04 43.10 45.75 Net margin 3.02 5.60 3.92 5.85 Broiler Wholesale cost 47.43 51.67 52.48 53.58 Wholesale price 51.73 58.87 59.00 55.00 Net margin 4.30 7.20 6.52 1.42 Turkey Wholesale cost 58.77 63.82 66.00 67.21 Wholesale price 58.08 68.50 64.01 65.00 Net margin -0.69 4.68 -1.99 -2.21 Egg Wholesale cost 64.80 72.69 74.46 75.85 Wholesale price 71.76 94.08 91.76 87.00 Net margin 6.96 21.39 17.30 11.15 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 73.79 66.14 64.63 62.95 Nebraska Direct 72.55 66.34 63.90 62.60 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 42.63 33.83 36.44 34.50 Utility boning 40.63 30.40 31.94 33.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 88.28 65.13 61.81 63.35 600-650 lb. 76.91 63.58 59.75 58.60 750-800 lb. 72.53 68.33 60.13 58.45 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 77.66 56.00 53.91 53.85 700-750 lb. 69.44 62.71 55.78 54.75 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 39.03 43.73 42.25 45.10 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 39.60 44.04 43.10 45.75 Sows 6 Markets 31.11 33.24 32.26 29.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 31.79 28.75 26.80 32.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 75.08 70.50 74.44 87.00 Ewes, Good 41.75 34.83 40.50 42.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 82.69 83.83 87.69 88.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.27 3.36 3.53 3.70 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.98 5.39 5.31 5.60 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 151.30 223.60 232.00 226.75 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 89.00 85.80 87.80 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 85.00 81.40 81.70 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 111.12 106.08 101.71 99.00 Choice 1-3 700-850# 110.46 104.01 99.40 98.00 Select 1-3 700-850# 108.25 94.39 95.77 94.00 Cutter Cow 76.63 58.82 61.72 61.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 108.38 84.73 89.23 85.00 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 105.75 94.25 90.42 87.25 Hide & offal value 9.32 8.37 8.17 8.05 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 161.12 164.52 163.26 163.50 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 56.38 62.46 60.05 64.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 102.20 110.39 110.00 117.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 35.80 51.45 52.33 56.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 54.34 55.99 52.18 55.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 35.98 43.33 40.86 40.20 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 150.00 165.25 165.65 175.25 55-65 lb., Choice 147.25 160.25 157.25 170.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 51.73 58.87 59.00 55.00 Georgia dock 50.64 57.78 57.62 55.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 158.99 153.57 157.48 158.00 Breast, Ribs on 80.65 73.75 77.49 80.00 Legs, whole 50.79 58.66 59.16 56.00 Leg quarters 32.82 42.65 43.24 40.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 58.55 68.41 64.33 64.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 58.54 70.35 64.60 65.00 Drumsticks 32.22 28.44 27.05 26.00 Wings, full cut 29.41 30.90 31.56 33.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 71.76 94.08 91.76 87.00 New York 64.30 91.80 91.26 85.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 279.4 285.3 286.4 284.1 Beef - All Fresh 260.4 257.2 259.3 260.5 Ground Beef 138.0 137.1 136.8 140.3 Rib roast 487.6 491.2 510.0 480.5 T-bone steak 586.3 602.9 606.6 591.8 Pork 188.4 202.4 200.8 202.2 Bacon 189.2 211.7 215.5 216.6 Chops 302.8 328.7 326.5 329.2 Picnic 113.4 114.1 117.5 117.4 Chicken - Composite 138.7 145.4 149.7 144.9 Whole, fresh 89.5 93.0 94.8 93.9 Breast - bone in 190.5 200.1 206.7 195.3 Leg quarter 112.3 117.6 120.9 120.1 Turkey; whole frozen 97.6 105.0 97.1 98.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 87.3 98.1 103.7 116.0 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 149.7 153.7 153.6 153.5 All food 146.8 149.4 149.4 149.9 All meat 133.7 137.0 137.7 137.2 Beef & veal 134.7 134.3 135.2 134.6 Pork 130.1 139.1 139.7 139.6 Poultry 140.4 146.1 146.3 146.3 Dairy Products 131.6 133.2 133.7 135.0 Fluid milk & cream 132.0 132.3 133.1 134.5 Manufactured products 131.8 134.7 134.9 136.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 22.3 31.2 25.6 24.3 Wholesale to retail 115.1 119.8 119.4 121.3 Farmers share (%) 51.0 47.0 49.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 38.2 35.7 38.0 34.7 Wholesale to retail 99.5 94.5 100.0 97.8 Farmers share (%) 27.0 36.0 31.0 34.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 83.0 81.4 85.1 82.9 Turkey 149.7 153.7 153.6 153.5 Eggs 12.2 20.3 12.6 22.9 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Feb-95 Feb-96 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 3,817 4,246 1,992 2,211 2,035 Veal 51 56 26 30 26 Pork 2,854 2,982 1,507 1,550 1,432 Lamb 48 46 23 23 23 Total red meat 6,770 7,330 3,548 3,814 3,516 Broilers 3,950 4,325 2,008 2,225 2,100 Other chicken 83 86 36 43 43 Turkeys 760 835 391 435 400 Total poultry 4,793 5,246 2,435 2,703 2,543 Total meat & poultry 11,563 12,576 5,983 6,517 6,059 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 5,451 6,004 2,815 3,123 2,881 Steers 2,720 2,991 1,409 1,547 1,444 Heifers 1,579 1,758 792 917 841 Beef Cows 517 615 311 327 288 Dairy Cows 531 538 255 279 259 Bulls and stags 104 102 48 53 49 Calves 230 272 128 144 128 Sheep 761 724 371 363 361 Hogs 15,420 15,991 8,067 8,291 7,700 Barrows & gilts 14,650 15,278 7,711 7,921 7,357 Sows 619 597 295 311 286 Broilers 1,167,940 1,240,000 574,559 625,000 615,000 Turkeys 40,523 43,500 20,865 22,000 21,500 Feb-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 707 711 715 716 714 Calves 226 208 208 214 215 Sheep 64 62 63 63 63 Hogs 186 188 188 188 187 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 420.3 381.6 381.4 389.6 368.6 Pork 389.5 321.6 347.1 334.8 383.5 Bellies 62.8 13.5 37.1 47.6 46.6 Hams 40.1 94.6 60.9 38.3 59.6 Total chicken 456.3 520.5 512.6 567.3 661.1 Turkey 312.9 644.2 270.1 271.3 353.7 Frozen eggs 19.5 14.4 12.5 13.8 15.6 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Oct-95 Nov-95 Jan - Jan - Nov-94 Nov-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 59,240 44,362 829,840 622,518 New Zealand 22,049 21,628 493,219 543,391 Canada 43,050 41,984 426,355 407,748 Brazil 5,334 5,733 121,975 62,425 Argentina 20,330 12,405 129,548 160,183 Central America 9,049 9,531 187,476 130,937 Other 1,622 1,969 27,374 21,358 Total 160,674 137,611 2,215,787 1,948,561 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 93,512 101,070 767,195 929,967 Canada 28,460 29,165 254,290 285,254 Mexico 7,109 5,428 201,445 84,011 Korea, Rep. 23,760 28,720 157,533 240,186 Caribbean 1,124 1,300 9,635 11,085 Other 13,130 12,583 71,348 114,113 Total 167,095 178,264 1,461,447 1,664,617 Cattle Imports Mexico 85,742 171,375 934,504 1,540,252 Canada 94,760 91,823 956,535 1,065,294 Over 700 lbs. 88,631 85,793 894,219 1,003,699 500-700 lbs. 2,323 3,001 12,653 10,750 Total 180,508 263,289 1,891,118 2,605,692 Cattle Exports Mexico 2,025 790 118,746 12,820 Canada 8,187 5,422 83,145 61,762 Total 13,256 7,994 209,574 86,082 Lamb Imports Australia 2,468 2,961 21,263 18,571 New Zealand 1,803 1,142 14,599 19,903 Total 4,343 4,179 35,872 39,020 Mutton Imports 1,221 1,307 10,241 18,240 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 2/18/95 2/18/96 % Chg Canada 56,153 NA TRQ Countries 112,276 NA Australia 57,990 NA New Zealand 38,160 NA ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Oct-95 Nov-95 Jan - Jan - Nov-94 Nov-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 43,616 36,587 388,382 418,120 Denmark 12,723 13,653 229,490 132,258 Poland 1,224 1,666 10,134 11,244 Hungary 628 504 17,196 10,130 Netherlands 1,060 910 15,469 9,510 Other 2,676 2,188 29,079 29,918 Total 61,927 55,507 689,750 611,181 Pork Exports Japan 40,593 28,067 222,306 341,795 Canada 5,033 7,574 47,672 51,695 Mexico 5,276 5,106 133,798 53,495 Caribbean 866 1,223 7,193 9,838 Other 17,263 18,963 64,120 253,473 Total 69,031 60,933 475,089 710,296 Hog Imports Head Canada 216,340 162,509 818,854 1,566,739 Under 110 lb 59,418 50,879 361,860 608,843 Total 216,363 162,510 824,531 1,569,109 Hog Exports Total 636 2,635 101,687 12,842 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 25,623 21,137 238,819 234,024 Mexico 20,571 16,595 200,801 186,321 Hong Kong 83,153 82,123 628,174 898,125 Singapore 4,466 4,226 59,448 45,120 Canada 8,053 6,269 71,439 70,183 Former USSR 153,896 132,033 710,146 1,282,090 Total 391,579 335,584 2,562,573 3,474,608 Turkey Exports Mexico 13,144 15,486 138,246 115,882 S. Korea 3,112 2,065 21,508 33,366 Hong Kong 2,445 1,701 6,189 18,670 Total 42,555 34,813 242,955 309,391 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 12,888 12,907 102,649 99,846 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,296 10,616 11,088 11,250 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,046 8,043 8,034 8,026 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,404 1,320 1,380 1,402 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,159 12,297 12,844 13,105 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.60 13.90 13.90 13.90 Milk for fluid use 12.70 14.00 14.00 13.90 Manuf. grade milk 11.40 13.00 13.00 12.80 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.35 12.87 12.91 12.73 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 64.0 103.5 74.4 75.4 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 124.5 145.8 144.6 139.3 Barrels 119.6 138.8 135.4 133.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.7 113.4 117.6 114.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,650 2,638 2,563 2,404 Nonfat dry milk 1,810 2,288 2,238 2,229 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 12.2 16.9 17.1 23.0 Commercial American cheese 309.5 312.3 297.0 308.1 Other cheese 126.8 106.3 95.7 93.8 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 103.5 70.1 50.3 70.6 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,263 4,259 3,980 4,201 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,712 5,174 4,626 4,956 All Government (mf. basis) 1,497 155 131 76 All Government (ss. basis) 341 242 189 172 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 24.0 1.0 Cheese 0.4 0.3 Nonfat dry milk 29.5 7.0 6.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 590.1 37.3 2.6 All products (ss basis 2/) 416.0 97.6 74.1 Dec-94 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 121.4 94.4 91.5 111.2 American cheese 256.9 248.7 248.8 278.2 Other-than-American cheese 321.4 336.9 337.7 331.4 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 79.9 92.1 81.5 66.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 7826.6 7538.3 7181.0 7658.8 Nonfat dry milk 116.3 75.4 71.6 99.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 98.6 100.2 90.4 NA American cheese 258.5 257.3 265.1 NA Other-than-American cheese 352.0 369.5 383.6 NA Nonfat dry milk 76.5 54.0 84.6 NA All products (mf. basis) 12455.0 13194.0 12855.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 295.4 272.6 316.6 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,520 5,664 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 5.1 5.5 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.6 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 25,041 25,650 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,811 18,325 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,012 26,550 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,122 5,350 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 73,982 76,841 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,266 5,244 5,350 Milk 150,582 153,626 155,643 160,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 155,126 157,500 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,137 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.0 67.1 67.5 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.4 52.9 Broilers 68.4 69.8 70.2 74.1 Turkeys 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.5 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 211.5 211.2 216.5 Eggs, number 236.2 238.7 235.4 239.0 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66.74 63-66 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 68.03 63-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 36.05 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 42.85 38-40 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 57.13 53-56 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 66.85 63-67 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 72.85 67-71 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.77 12.9-13.7 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.83 11.9-12.7 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,835 2,120 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,368 2,050 2,080 Pork exports 435 531 784 900 Pork imports 740 743 654 650 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,753 4,015 Turkey exports 212 281 349 367 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.4 5.2 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 5.7 7.3 7.8 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,366 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 16.9 17.4 16.5 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.5 3.8 4.4 6.1 Total Meat 50.4 52.1 54.1 54.9 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 681 602 586 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 60 67 61 93 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1995 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,470 5,488 5,545 5,576 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.6 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,602 6,250 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,183 6,326 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,340 Total Meat 17,983 18,604 18,533 18,862 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,540 39,484 39,202 38,900 Net removals 1,046 752 243 96 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.1 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 17.4 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.1 Total Meat 51.4 53.0 52.6 54.2 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.9 60.3 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 32.50 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.43 13.73 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 516 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 399 Pork exports 187 194 199 204 Pork imports 173 167 154 160 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,005 Turkey exports 59 83 90 117 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,613 5,647 5,683 5,716 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 Production, million lb. Beef 6,125 6,425 6,700 6,400 Pork 4,400 4,450 4,525 4,950 Broilers 6,450 6,650 6,750 6,700 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,463 19,089 19,592 19,697 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,800 41,400 39,600 39,200 Commercial use 38,700 40,000 39,500 39,300 Net removals 200 200 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.4 17.0 17.6 16.5 Pork 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.2 Broilers 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.4 Turkeys 3.9 3.9 4.3 6.4 Total Meat 52.2 53.2 54.7 56.4 Eggs, number 59.5 59.1 59.1 61.3 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-67 63-67 60-64 62-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 63-65 63-67 62-68 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 33-35 36-38 34-36 33-35 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 42-44 37-39 38-42 35-37 Broiler,12 City 55-57 53-57 53-57 49-53 Turkeys, Eastern 63-65 62-66 62-68 65-71 Eggs, New York 79-81 63-67 62-68 64-70 Milk, all at plant 13.5-14.0 12.5-13.2 12.2-13.2 13.3-14.4 Milk, M-W 12.3-12.6 11.3-12.1 11.7-12.7 12.4-13.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 500 540 540 500 Pork exports 190 230 225 255 Pork imports 165 165 160 160 Broiler exports 950 990 1,015 1,060 Turkey exports 67 88 92 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1995 END-END-END