LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY July 17, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-43. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hog Inventory Increases Improved producer returns this spring and prospects for relatively high hog prices and low feed costs have encouraged producers to increase their herds. The June 1 hogs and pigs inventory totaled 58.2 million head, up 2 percent from a year ago and up 4 percent from March 1. Breeding hog numbers, at 6.95 million head, were up 1 percent from a year ago and up 2 percent from March 1. Despite the small increase in the breeding inventory, producers indicated intentions as of June 1 to have 6 percent more sows farrow during June-November than a year ago. However, this year the relationship between farrowings and the breeding herd is more in line with the historical average than was the case in 1996. With nearly unchanged production, increased exports, and enlarged population, per capita pork consumption is expected to drop about a pound-and-a-half in 1997. However, with expected production growth of nearly 8 percent in 1998, per capita consumption will likely increase about 3 pounds. Hog prices this year are expected to average in the mid-$50s per cwt and decline $2-$3 in 1998. Export demand is expected to remain strong. The relatively high prices, combined with the low feed costs, should give producers favorable returns encouraging continued expansion into 1999. Pork Production To Increase Based on the market hog inventory, pig crops, and farrowing intentions reported in June, pork production in 1997 will likely be about the same as in 1996, and up about 8 percent in 1998. Projected pork production for third-quarter 1997 is up 3 percent from last year. Hog slaughter is expected to be up 1-2 percent, reflecting the 1-percent increase in market hogs weighing 60-179 pounds. The average dressed weight is expected to be up about 3 pounds as hogs have remained heavy instead of lightening seasonally in the spring and early summer. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to be up about 2 percent, reflecting the 2-percent increase in the March-May pig crop and the June 1 market hog inventory weighing less than 60 pounds. Producers reported intentions as of June 1 to have 5 percent more sows farrow in June-August than a year ago, compared with the 2-percent increase reported in March. The larger increase is likely due to improved returns since March and prospects for lower feed costs and relatively high prices over the next 18 months. If the intentions are realized, the June-August pig crop would be up 6-7 percent, given the continued increase in pigs per litter. Based on the historical relationship between the June-August pig crop and first-quarter slaughter, January-March 1998 slaughter would be about 24 million head. First-quarter 1998 production is expected to be about 7 percent above this year. As of June 1, producers reported their intentions to have 6 percent more sows farrow during September-November than actual farrowings a year earlier. The September- November pig crop is expected to be about 8 percent above last year. The expected pig crop implies a second-quarter 1998 slaughter of about 23.9 million head, 9 percent higher than this year. This year, second-quarter slaughter as a percentage of the September-November pig crop was slightly below the 1992-95 average. Given the optimistic scenario for hog producers over the next 18 months, the December 1997-May 1998 pig crop is expected to be 8-9 percent above a year earlier. The expected pig crop implies a pork production increase of about 7 percent in the second half of 1998. The third quarter 1998 average dressed weight may be a little lighter than this year's projected average. Hog Prices To Remain High Despite increasing pork supplies, a sharp increase in exports and moderate economic growth are expected to boost hog prices in the second half above a year earlier. In fact, per capita pork consumption in the third and fourth quarters may be the lowest since 1987 and 1986. Prices are expected to average in the high-$50s per cwt. As production increases seasonally, exports are expected to rise, especially to Japan, helping to stabilize prices. Prices this fall are expected to average in the mid-$50s per cwt. Despite the expected largest production since 1992, hog prices in 1998 are expected to average in the low- to mid-$50s per cwt. The price pressure of the large production will be partially offset by higher exports, declining beef supplies, and continued rising personal income. Retail pork prices in the second half of this year are expected to rise about 1 percent over last year. Although per capita consumption is expected to be below a year ago, the relatively narrow gap between the composite retail pork price and the all-fresh beef price is expected to moderate pork price gains as consumers will likely substitute beef for pork. Late in the year, beef supplies are expected to tighten, providing less competition for pork, and the gap will likely widen leaving more opportunity for pork price increases. Retail pork prices in 1998 are expected to be about unchanged from 1997 and farm-to-retail spreads will likely remain wide. In addition, the gap between the composite retail pork price and the all-fresh beef price is expected to continue widening. Pork Exports To Increase Pork exports are expected to increase sharply in the second half of 1997 as Japan will likely be a strong buyer as their stocks decrease and U.S. prices moderate as supplies increase seasonally. Exports are projected to increase about 17 percent in 1998 over 1997. Export forecasts are based largely on assumptions of growing foreign incomes and populations, stable-to-declining foreign production, and continued World Trade Organization mandated import market liberalization. Increased U.S. pork supplies and the absence of Taiwan in the world market also support expectations for higher 1998 exports. U.S. imports of Canadian hogs are expected to total about 3.2 million head this year and rise to over 3.3 million head in 1998. The relative scarcity of domestic hogs, increased packing capacity in some Corn Belt States, favorable exchange rates, and zero countervailing duties, will pull Canadian hogs into the United States in record numbers. Cattle Herd Liquidation Ends, Inventory Slide Continues Cattle inventories are beginning to stabilize and shift toward expansion. However, this is likely to be a slow shift, not being fully implemented until at least 1999. Returns to cow-calf producers are likely to turn positive this year as calf and yearling prices have risen sharply from year-earlier levels. However, negative returns over the past couple of years have held down the number of heifers likely to have calved and entered the breeding herd in 1997. The mid-year Cattle inventory report will be released July 18 and will provide a closer view as to how much further the cattle numbers are likely to decline. First-half 1997 slaughter statistics provide a fairly solid view of the transition the cattle inventory and industry is undergoing at this time. First-half commercial cattle slaughter was down nearly 2 percent from a year earlier, with the female slaughter changes providing solid evidence of the inventory declines beginning to end; but herd expansion is not likely to begin until at least 1999. Total cow slaughter was down nearly 8 percent, with beef cow slaughter down 12 percent and dairy cow slaughter down 3 percent. These figures, together with the stronger feeder cattle prices and lower grain prices, suggests that herd liquidation has slowed sharply as conditions for cow-calf producers have improved. However, expansion is well in the future as strongly indicated by the 7 percent increase in heifer slaughter in the first half of the year. In addition, the number of heifers on feed continues large, likely insuring tight replacement heifer numbers for the 1997 breeding season. Although heifer slaughter is up, steer slaughter remains well below a year earlier. The July 1 Cattle on Feed report will provide a better view of the steer-heifer mix in second quarter cattle placements. Although second-quarter placements have been large, they are being compared with sharply reduced numbers a year ago as grain prices approached record levels. Fed cattle marketings will remain well above the low 1996 levels until late fall. However, sharply reduced slaughter weights and lower cow slaughter are both holding down beef production. Slaughter weights are rising seasonally and fed marketing will move production above a year ago through early fall. Although second-half placements will decline from a year ago, numbers will be supported by reduced calf slaughter, as more calves are once again shifted into feedlots. Calf slaughter in first-half 1997 was down 8 percent from a year earlier. Broiler Returns Increasing As broiler production increases accelerated in the second quarter, the 12-city wholesale price for whole birds fell below 1996 and is expected to continue below last year this summer. Feed costs are about 15 percent lower than last year and will offset the lower prices and increase returns for the third quarter from both the lowest levels for this year, 4-5 cents per pound in May and June, and from the third quarter of last year. Stronger increases in placements of birds in late May and June indicate stronger production increases are probable this summer. Hot weather in production areas does seem to be moderating increases in bird weights however. The broiler hatchery supply flock was 5 percent larger on June 1, indicating large increases in placements of birds for growout can continue. Prices for breast meat have increased from June and are now about the same as last year. Stronger demand for grilling and increased featuring have aided breast sales volume in recent weeks. Dark meat prices have been about 20 percent lower than a year ago, but are continuing the slow increases seen during late June. Turkey Prices Split Lower turkey meat production in the first half of 1997 brought higher prices for hen turkeys but tom turkey prices have remained below last year. Stocks of turkey meat parts have been well above a year ago (19 percent on May 31), but whole bird stocks have fallen below a year ago in recent months. It appears that there continues to be strong demand for whole birds which are supplied primarily by the hen turkeys because they are smaller in size than the toms and better fit consumer needs. The demand for processing meat from the toms does not appear as strong. Much of the tom meat is used to produce turkey hams and deli meats where sales have been weak so far this year. Turkey meat production is expected to be slightly lower in the third quarter and lower for the year. This would be the first year-over-year decline in ready-to-cook (RTC) meat production since 1982. Net returns to turkey producers continue negative even with considerably lower feed costs than a year ago. Positive net returns are expected when prices are above 70 cents per pound, which should occur in late summer or early fall. Egg Production Increasing The table egg production flock is expected to be about 1 percent larger than a year ago for the last half of 1997 after being nearly 2 percent larger for the first 5 months of the year. Increases in slaughter of spent hens has kept the flock from increasing at a faster pace even with the hatch of replacement pullets up 3 percent for January through May. Increased slaughter and increased placements of pullets will bring a slightly younger and probably more productive flock for the rest of the year resulting in production increases slightly larger than the increase in flock size. Molting rates have also fallen slightly with one percent less of the flock having completed a molt on June 1, compared with last year. Egg prices are expected to stay below year-ago levels as export sales are slightly below a year ago and domestic demand is not increasing as strongly as it did last year. Per capita consumption has increased slightly in the first half of the year but at substantially lower prices at the wholesale level and slightly lower prices at retail. Broiler Exports Fall Over the first 4 months of 1997, broiler exports totaled 1.4 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the same period in 1996. Broiler exports have slowed over the last several months primarily due to lower shipments to Asian countries. Exports to Russia, the largest market for U.S. broiler products, have continued to expand, totaling 647 million pounds over the first 4 months, up 13 percent. Exports were also higher to the Baltic countries and Mexico. However, these increases could not offset falling shipments to Asia and the Middle East. Broiler exports are now expected to total 4.6 billion pounds, 4 percent higher than in 1996, but down about 200 million from previous estimates. The export forecast for 1998 is 4.8 billion pounds, a continuing moderation from the rapid growth in recent years. Turkey Exports To Rise Sharply Exports of turkey and turkey products are now forecast to reach 535 million pounds in 1997, 22 percent higher than 1996. Larger than anticipated exports to Mexico and Hong Kong, the two largest markets for U.S. turkey products, are the driving forces in the increase. The jump in monthly turkey exports seems to have begun in June 1996. Over the first 5 months of 1996, turkey exports averaged 28.7 million pounds, but over the last 7 months of 1996, the average monthly export figure rose to 42 million pounds. The growth in turkey exports has been chiefly in shipments of lower valued ground or mechanically deboned meat products. These are used primarily for sausage production. The large increase in turkey exports to Hong Kong is likely to be partly responsible for the decrease in exports of broiler products to Hong Kong. Other Chicken Exports Exports of other chicken products continue to expand and now are expected to reach 383 million pounds in 1997, a 45 percent increase from the previous year. A large surge in exports to Hong Kong is the leading cause for the upward revision in the export forecast, but shipments to other major markets have also been strong. Again the increase in exports of other chicken products stems from the growth in the market for low-cost poultry products for use in further processed products. Exports of other chicken products experienced a jump in monthly shipments similar to turkey. During the first 7 months of 1996, monthly exports averaged 14.5 million pounds. However, over the rest of 1996, exports averaged 29.7 million pounds per month. This higher level of exports has continued over the first 4 months of 1997, with shipments averaging over 33 million pounds. Egg Exports To Decline After increasing 35 percent between 1994 and 1996, total U.S. egg exports are expected to decline slightly in 1997. The weakness in the egg export market is primarily confined to exports of shell eggs for consumption. Through April, exports of shell eggs for hatching were up 7 percent, and exports of egg products were up 8 percent, on a shell egg equivalent basis. Hong Kong is the chief source of the decline in shell egg exports. The lower shipments are primarily due to a combination of high U.S. egg prices and competition from the European Union and China. Earlier this year, China reported strong domestic egg production and low prices. Total Poultry Trade to Asia Exports of broiler products to the major Asian markets have fallen during the first 4 months of 1997. However, this decline has been almost completely offset by higher exports of other chicken and turkey products to these countries. Broiler shipments to Hong Kong are down 16 percent to 274 million pounds, but the large gains in shipments of turkey and other chicken have pushed total poultry exports to Hong Kong to 375 million pounds, 10 percent greater than in the same period in 1996. DEIP Exports Projected Steady or Higher Recently announced allocations for the July 1997-June 1998 Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) were reduced from a year earlier because of U. S. export subsidy obligations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. However, active international markets and a larger U.S. exportable surplus are expected to lead to DEIP sales as that are as large or larger than those of a year earlier. Allocations under DEIP for nonfat dry milk total about 92,000 metric tons, down from 100,000 tons a year earlier. The reductions in the regional allocations were roughly the same. The current large supplies of powder probably will lead to sizable DEIP contracts for shipment during the second half of 1997 and early 1998. For the entire 1997/98 DEIP year, nonfat dry milk contracts are expected to be about the same as the 70,000 tons of a year earlier. The allocation for butter and milkfat was reduced about 11 percent, but great leeway remains to increase DEIP sales within the limit. Only about a fourth of the previous year's allocation was actually used. Even so, limited availability of U. S. butter is projected to hold exports near a year earlier. Exports of cheese under DEIP are expected to use most of the new allocation of 3,500 tons. U. S. cheese has established itself in modest niche markets, and the year-earlier allocation was more than 80 percent used. On the other hand, only a relatively small share of the new allocation for dry whole milk may be used, even though the allocation was reduced by 25 percent. Unlike the regional allocations for nonfat dry milk and butter, the cheese and dry whole milk allocations were made global. Contract activity languished during the first 8 months of the past DEIP year, but ended the year with a surge. Almost three-fourths of the tonnage came during the last third of the year. During the second half of 1996 and early 1997, tight domestic markets sharply reduced potential DEIP supplies, while international markets were slightly sluggish. In recent months, an emerging U. S. surplus and more active international markets led to brisk DEIP business. Contract totals for the DEIP year came to 69,895 tons of nonfat dry milk; 2,195 tons of dry whole milk; 3,020 tons of cheese; and the equivalent of 9,314 tons of butter. Principal Contributors - (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,253 8,904 8,484 8,226 Net placements 1,021 1,228 1,560 NA Marketings 1,696 1,648 1,818 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 573,432 583,986 591,820 596,376 Chicks hatched (000)/2 672,168 690,790 720,610 700,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,290 52,112 52,955 53,017 Pullets placed (000) 6,169 6,122 7,056 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,629 4,893 5,314 5,800 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 38,128 37,232 36,536 36,781 Poults placed (000) 27,987 28,180 29,106 28,399 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 434 445 455 440 Table egg layers, (000)/1 240,780 248,290 246,608 244,894 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.3 72.6 71.1 72.2 Chicks hatched (000) 34,076 38,746 38,891 35,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 6,469 11,052 9,998 9,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 56.87 62.43 61.31 61.29 Selling price 64.07 67.36 63.53 63.50 Net margin 7.20 4.93 2.22 2.21 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 45.36 46.87 47.32 47.57 Selling price 59.13 57.55 57.60 60.00 Net margin 13.77 10.68 10.28 12.43 Broiler Wholesale cost 59.18 54.25 54.40 54.53 Wholesale price 64.58 58.53 59.05 63.00 Net margin 5.40 4.28 4.65 8.47 Turkey Wholesale cost 76.38 68.40 70.57 70.86 Wholesale price 67.46 65.90 66.78 67.00 Net margin -8.92 -2.50 -3.79 -3.86 Egg Wholesale cost 83.69 74.38 74.18 71.46 Wholesale price 84.39 72.85 69.16 82.00 Net margin 0.70 -1.53 -5.02 10.54 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 64.07 67.36 63.53 63.50 Nebraska Direct 63.79 67.49 64.07 64.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 34.39 39.13 37.32 39.50 Utility boning 32.89 38.00 35.44 37.40 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lbs. 60.65 89.44 93.54 96.00 600-650 lbs. 61.05 84.21 84.85 89.00 750-800 lbs. 62.38 76.32 78.80 83.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lbs. 52.70 81.91 84.18 88.50 700-750 lbs. 59.28 73.57 75.78 79.50 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 59.20 57.54 57.42 60.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 59.13 57.55 57.60 60.00 Sows 6 Markets 48.25 51.02 47.96 52.50 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lbs. (per hd.) 28.87 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 92.67 83.17 83.25 80.00 Ewes, Good 39.83 43.69 31.94 48.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 93.17 104.75 101.00 98.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 4.70 2.84 2.59 2.40 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.29 4.52 4.00 3.40 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 252.48 306.39 287.90 265.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 92.90 127.00 115.00 92.90 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 89.40 118.00 108.00 89.60 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 101.53 105.97 101.83 100.25 Choice 1-3 700-850# 101.01 105.72 101.63 100.00 Select 1-3 700-850# 94.47 99.00 95.65 94.50 Cutter Cow 58.96 70.16 66.76 68.85 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 82.84 93.86 90.79 97.75 Imported bnls beef, 90% frz 81.70 89.31 86.88 88.50 Hide & offal value 9.05 8.72 8.41 8.13 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 166.61 165.96 166.71 167.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 79.08 76.83 75.94 79.25 Loins, 14-18 lbs. 126.16 125.68 116.28 121.50 Bellies, 12-14 lbs. 89.49 82.58 80.68 88.00 Hams, 20-26 lbs. 77.27 63.25 66.36 68.25 Trimmings, 72% fresh 68.45 66.75 65.50 73.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 Lbs. down, Choice 199.25 194.75 186.16 179.00 55-65 lbs., Choice 199.25 189.75 181.16 173.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 64.58 58.53 59.05 63.00 Georgia dock 64.83 59.68 59.99 61.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 204.43 164.46 184.27 61.00 Breast, Ribs on 103.71 84.88 95.31 100.00 Legs, whole 59.59 48.08 48.03 49.00 Leg quarters 41.95 30.26 29.17 34.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 Lbs. 70.50 66.08 66.35 66.00 Hens, 8-16 Lbs. 65.66 66.64 68.60 69.00 Drumsticks 24.40 29.20 24.28 28.00 Wings, full cut 31.02 31.37 29.12 36.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 84.39 72.85 69.16 82.00 New York 80.95 72.30 68.40 80.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 276.3 279.0 280.3 277.6 Beef - All Fresh 248.3 253.0 254.0 253.2 Ground Beef 132.4 138.1 138.2 140.8 Rib roast 488.0 505.0 499.4 503.7 T-bone steak 581.9 583.1 593.2 586.2 Pork 222.5 226.5 229.0 233.7 Bacon 249.3 266.0 262.7 269.4 Chops 353.3 344.5 345.4 357.3 Picnic 118.0 124.2 128.3 124.7 Chicken - Composite 151.1 148.8 151.9 151.9 Whole, fresh 96.8 100.2 100.7 99.3 Breast - bone in 208.9 200.4 207.5 205.2 Leg quarter 120.5 121.5 122.1 124.3 Turkey; whole frozen 104.1 103.2 104.5 107.8 Eggs, Grade A, Large 94.5 108.1 100.2 95.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 156.7 160.2 160.1 160.3 All food 152.6 156.6 156.6 156.6 All meat 138.8 143.4 143.9 144.5 Beef & veal 131.9 136.2 136.9 136.4 Pork 148.8 153.6 154.3 157.4 Poultry 151.3 155.4 156.6 156.7 Dairy Products 139.8 145.7 145.4 144.1 Fluid milk & cream 140.7 144.7 144.9 143.6 Manufactured products 139.5 147.2 146.6 145.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 26.7 18.9 21.8 22.9 Wholesale to retail 121.7 119.2 117.8 121.5 Farmers share (%) 46.0 51.0 50.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 28.0 34.0 33.1 31.8 Wholesale to retail 105.6 105.7 104.4 110.7 Farmers share (%) 40.0 38.0 40.0 39.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 79.9 87.3 91.3 88.5 Retail to consumer Turkey 28.0 32.0 29.6 32.0 Eggs 13.1 29.9 28.4 27.0 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jul-96 Jul-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 15,139 14,680 2,190 2,144 2,138 Veal 209 193 26 26 27 Pork 9,833 9,646 1,333 1,320 1,355 Lamb 158 151 22 20 20 Total red meat 25,339 24,670 3,571 3,510 3,540 Broilers 15,414 15,869 2,314 2,275 2,350 Other chicken 298 306 46 48 45 Turkeys 3,137 3,109 463 475 485 Total poultry 18,849 19,284 2,822 2,798 2,880 Total meat & poultry 44,188 43,954 6,393 6,308 6,420 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 21,709 21,308 3,184 3,083 3,074 Steers 10,957 10,477 1,651 1,554 1,577 Heifers 6,291 6,787 974 1,008 999 Beef Cows 2,289 1,975 274 255 246 Dairy Cows 1,761 1,666 223 204 191 Bulls and stags 411 403 62 62 61 Calves 997 894 116 119 126 Sheep 2,466 2,278 317 305 290 Hogs 53,193 51,496 7,104 7,001 7,350 Barrows & gilts 50,628 49,395 6,806 6,695 7,040 Sows 2,149 1,746 249 258 260 Broilers 4,424,947 4,513,261 659,567 650,000 685,000 Turkeys 166,310 163,403 23,850 25,000 26,000 Jul-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 704 691 694 704 706 Calves 204 218 223 227 227 Sheep 63 67 70 70 70 Hogs 184 188 189 189 188 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 306.7 290.4 285.4 280.7 NA Pork 351.8 404.7 440.2 410.1 NA Bellies 56.8 54.8 54.0 55.3 NA Hams 79.8 55.8 85.8 98.0 NA Total chicken 665.2 715.1 744.3 738.6 NA Turkey 679.7 496.5 543.3 612.0 NA Frozen eggs 11.7 8.5 8.5 8.4 NA /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Mar-97 Apr-97 Jan - Jan - Apr-96 Apr-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lbs. Australia 39,538 67,168 161,075 179,344 New Zealand 62,474 51,820 210,441 196,018 Canada 59,252 64,265 178,049 239,236 Brazil 9,260 7,414 26,213 32,059 Argentina 10,552 11,441 53,596 42,025 Central America 7,726 7,093 43,371 31,895 Other 9,577 6,587 18,967 31,410 Total 198,378 215,788 691,712 751,987 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 82,765 97,352 387,075 331,141 Canada 21,330 19,941 97,632 83,386 Mexico 15,815 20,577 41,703 73,579 Korea, Rep. 12,141 21,033 76,681 83,566 Caribbean 1,285 1,206 3,852 4,581 Other 12,982 15,584 52,038 54,598 Total 146,317 175,692 658,980 630,850 Cattle Imports Mexico 42,826 61,134 192,870 223,954 Canada 126,649 144,819 580,982 476,629 Over 700 lbs. 105,122 116,645 510,707 404,936 500-700 lbs. 16,123 21,298 49,296 52,951 Total 169,481 205,953 773,885 700,590 Cattle Exports Mexico 13,550 17,785 19,331 69,505 Canada 3,932 2,255 12,478 12,597 Total 18,234 20,709 44,635 83,926 Lamb Imports Australia 3,524 3,272 9,435 11,790 New Zealand 3,581 2,548 7,768 10,888 Total 7,250 5,882 17,407 22,919 Mutton Imports 2,524 2,633 7,378 10,254 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 7/14/96 7/06/97 % Chg Canada 250,722 299,169 1932.3% TRQ Countries 478,690 529,858 1068.9% Australia 188,066 216,148 1493.2% New Zealand 232,427 252,827 877.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mar-97 Apr-97 Jan - Jan - Apr-96 Apr-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lbs. Canada 32,327 32,428 133,620 135,918 Denmark 14,004 14,593 40,353 52,628 Poland 1,536 783 3,229 4,331 Hungary 688 820 2,430 2,884 Netherlands 440 919 3,355 2,928 Other 2,841 4,573 9,415 13,505 Total 51,836 54,117 192,402 212,194 Pork Exports Japan 33,318 45,769 198,044 129,517 Canada 9,889 9,923 33,617 37,093 Mexico 5,148 5,872 18,332 20,261 Caribbean 756 696 3,182 3,025 Other 19,993 32,414 96,951 96,947 Total 69,103 94,673 350,126 286,843 Hog Imports Head Canada 252,343 230,568 842,386 993,540 Under 110 Lbs. 80,964 73,667 256,496 300,854 Total 252,343 230,749 842,537 993,804 Hog Exports Total 2,730 8,490 34,279 18,193 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lbs. Japan 12,825 15,274 72,450 51,989 Mexico 18,907 22,321 68,176 77,918 Hong Kong 78,275 66,170 324,829 273,680 Singapore 2,864 2,834 16,911 12,390 Canada 9,500 9,473 24,296 32,989 Former USSR 179,018 122,830 572,377 647,318 Total 365,988 301,974 1,417,765 1,391,735 Turkey Exports Mexico 14,353 14,935 46,031 56,721 S. Korea 2,248 2,137 9,323 7,023 Hong Kong 11,190 11,858 2,814 40,320 Total 48,454 47,104 115,713 174,750 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,395 6,246 37,107 30,839 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lbs. 10,926 11,452 11,847 11,357 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thousand 7,818 7,731 7,733 7,736 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lbs. 1,398 1,481 1,532 1,468 Production - U.S., Mil. lbs. 12,812 13,413 13,871 13,292 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 14.80 13.40 13.00 12.60 Milk for fluid use 14.90 13.40 13.10 12.70 Manuf. grade milk 13.60 11.70 10.90 10.90 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 13.92 11.44 10.70 10.74 Wholesale prices: Cents/lb. Grade A butter 129.3 95.6 86.1 105.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 151.5 125.6 116.5 117.9 Barrels 145.8 121.3 114.3 112.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 129.8 114.4 109.8 107.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,726 1,630 1,725 1,725 Nonfat dry milk 1,921 1,749 1,725 1,720 Beginning stocks: Mil. lbs. Commercial butter 33.0 26.3 42.4 41.4 Commercial American cheese 389.6 392.4 430.1 451.3 Other cheese 152.2 124.5 127.1 140.5 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 86.5 81.3 121.3 151.2 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,653 5,243 5,962 6,276 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,575 6,180 7,037 7,765 All Government (mf. basis) 25 17 43 53 All Government (ss. basis) 20 12 13 13 USDA net removals: Mil. lbs. Butter 2.0 3.2 3.8 Cheese 0.5 0.5 1.3 2.1 Nonfat dry milk 7.1 20.4 22.0 29.8 All products (mf basis 2/) 7.5 54.8 91.2 113.2 All products (ss basis 2/) 89.3 244.5 274.1 371.6 May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Dairy product output: Mil. Lbs. Butter 100.9 104.1 117.5 103.1 American cheese 302.2 284.9 279.2 298.8 Other-than-American cheese 334.4 353.2 322.5 350.0 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 121.3 108.4 110.5 117.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 8606.8 8342.1 8492.8 8727.4 Nonfat dry milk 114.4 109.0 127.3 132.3 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lbs. Butter 105.3 100.9 99.4 NA American cheese 289.1 272.6 242.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 354.1 368.1 339.3 NA Nonfat dry milk 125.1 81.6 67.0 NA All products (mf. basis) 13588.0 13461.0 12694.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 199.6 229.3 178.6 NA Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,743 6,911 7,155 7,307 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.6 Production, million lbs. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,137 24,800 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,119 18,475 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,528 29,200 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,435 5,725 Total Red Meat & Poultry 74,070 75,303 76,152 79,063 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,499 5,625 Milk 155,425 154,331 155,396 156,200 Commercial use (mf basis) 154,859 155,057 156,394 157,700 Net removals (mf basis) 2,109 92 800 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.5 67.7 66.6 64.8 Pork 52.5 49.1 47.6 50.7 Broilers 68.8 70.8 73.5 77.6 Turkeys 17.9 18.5 17.9 18.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 210.3 209.2 208.3 214.4 Eggs, number 235.7 237.1 240.2 243.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.24 65.2 65-70 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 68.03 61.1 73-78 74-79 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 35.58 30.3 36-39 41-44 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 42.35 53.4 54-58 51-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lbs. 56.38 61.2 58-62 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 66.35 66.5 65-70 62-66 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.85 88.2 77-83 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.74 14.74 12.7-13.5 12.9-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 11.2-12.0 11.8-12.7 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef & veal exports 1,821 1,877 1,915 2,140 Beef & veal imports 2,103 2,073 2,376 2,440 Pork exports 771 951 1,250 1,465 Pork imports 664 618 593 605 Broiler exports 3,894 4,420 4,580 4,750 Turkey exports 348 438 535 565 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million lbs. Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,671 39,833 38,749 38,804 Net removals 19 29 19 25 Consumption, Retail Lbs. Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million Lbs.s. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,089 7,133 7,177 7,218 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 Production, million Lbs.s. Beef 6,112 6,425 6,525 6,075 Pork 4,194 4,100 4,275 4,550 Broilers 6,628 6,950 7,000 6,950 Turkeys 1,235 1,375 1,400 1,425 Total Meat 18,424 19,083 19,413 19,231 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,340 1,390 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,896 40,300 38,200 38,000 Commercial use 38,494 39,500 39,200 39,200 Net removals 100 300 300 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 17.2 17.3 16.0 Pork 11.8 11.5 11.9 12.4 Broilers 17.6 19.2 18.8 17.9 Turkeys 3.5 3.9 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 49.7 52.4 53.0 53.2 Eggs, number 58.8 58.7 60.7 62.0 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.4 64-69 62-68 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.4 73-79 75-81 74-80 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.0 36-38 38-42 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.1 55-58 57-61 54-58 Broiler,12 City 60.0 57-61 60-64 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern 58.9 64-68 67-73 72-78 Eggs, New York 84.9 70-75 77-83 80-86 Milk, all at plant 13.5 12.7-13.4 11.8-12.8 13.0-14.0 Milk, M-W 12.3 10.6-11.3 10.5-11.5 11.8-12.8 U.S. Trade, million Lbs. Beef/veal exports 455.0 455 510 495 Beef/veal imports 536.0 610 640 590 Pork exports 192.0 260 368 430 Pork imports 158.0 140 135 160 Broiler exports 1089.8 1,000 1,170 1,320 Turkey exports 127.6 137 135 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 QI'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,256 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 Unemployment rate, % 5.2 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 Production, million Lbs. Beef 6,025 Pork 4,500 Broilers 7,100 Turkeys 1,300 Total Meat 19,157 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,000 Commercial use 38,600 Net removals 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.1 Pork 12.5 Broilers 19.1 Turkeys 4.0 Total Meat 52.4 Eggs, number 59.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71-73 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 74-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 41-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-52 Broiler,12 City 57-59 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 Eggs, New York 74-77 Milk, all at plant 13.4-14.0 Milk, M-W 12.0-12.5 U.S. Trade, million Lbs. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 630 Pork exports 315 Pork imports 150 Broiler exports 1,100 Turkey exports 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 Hogs on farms, farrowings, and pig crops, U.S. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head March 1 inventory 56,545 57,350 58,465 56,340 55,900 Breeding 7,040 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,800 Market 49,505 50,140 51,467 49,575 49,100 Under 60 lbs. 18,480 18,780 19,251 18,790 18,660 60-119 lbs. 12,107 12,190 12,498 11,980 11,760 120-179 lbs. 10,372 10,430 10,594 10,095 10,040 180 + lbs. 8,546 8,740 9,124 8,710 8,640 June 1 inventory 58,395 60,715 59,560 57,200 58,150 Breeding 7,320 7,565 7,180 6,870 6,950 Market 51,075 53,150 52,380 50,330 51,200 Under 60 lbs. 20,770 22,125 21,270 20,265 20,605 60-119 lbs. 12,865 13,145 13,060 12,700 12,890 120-179 lbs. 9,590 9,825 9,865 9,800 9,930 180 + lbs. 7,850 8,055 8,185 7,565 7,775 Sept. 1 inventory 59,030 62,320 60,540 58,200 Breeding 7,130 7,415 6,898 6,770 Market 51,900 54,905 53,642 51,430 Under 60 lbs. 19,675 20,790 20,235 19,330 60-119 lbs. 13,175 13,960 13,532 12,800 120-179 lbs. 10,545 11,170 10,985 10,600 180 + lbs. 8,505 8,985 8,890 8,700 Dec. 1 inventory 58,202 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,171 Breeding 7,109 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,655 Market 51,093 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,516 Under 60 lbs. 19,122 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,414 60-119 lbs. 12,846 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,239 120-179 lbs. 10,420 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,315 180 + lbs. 8,705 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,548 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,808 2,885 2,886 2,745 2,677 March-May 3,220 3,390 3,170 2,964 2,952 Dec.-May 1/ 6,028 6,275 6,056 5,709 5,629 June-August 2,972 3,107 2,976 2,761 2,910 Sept.-Nov. 2,982 2,997 2,815 2,717 2,888 June-Nov. 5,954 6,104 5,791 5,478 5,798 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 22,871 23,368 23,851 23,054 23,069 March-May 26,135 27,984 26,373 25,092 25,548 Dec.-May 1/ 49,006 51,352 50,224 48,146 48,617 June-August 24,041 25,547 24,813 23,667 Sept.-Nov. 24,003 24,517 23,479 23,159 June-Nov. 48,044 50,064 48,292 46,826 Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.15 8.10 8.27 8.40 8.62 March-May 8.12 8.26 8.32 8.47 8.65 Dec.-May 1/ 8.13 8.18 8.29 8.43 8.64 June-August 8.09 8.22 8.34 8.57 Sept.-Nov. 8.05 8.18 8.34 8.52 June-Nov. 8.07 8.20 8.34 8.55 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions Hog breeding herd changes, United States ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory change: December 1 breeding 1/ 7,229 7,109 7,165 7,060 6,845 December-February Sow slaughter 983 939 919 1,010 904 Stag/boar slaughter 197 213 205 233 179 Gilts/boars added 1,106 1,083 1,169 1,181 1,003 % of inventory 15.3% 15.2% 16.3% 16.7% 14.7% March 1 breeding 7,155 7,040 7,210 6,998 6,765 March-May Sow slaughter 934 896 914 907 955 Stag/boar slaughter 220 235 243 235 188 Gilts/boars added 1,519 1,411 1,512 1,324 1,248 % of inventory 21.2% 20.0% 21.0% 18.9% 18.4% June 1 breeding 7,520 7,320 7,565 7,180 6,870 June-August Sow slaughter 1,096 1,002 1,030 1,015 Stag/boar slaughter 228 225 242 232 Gilts/boars added 1,094 1,037 1,122 965 % of inventory 14.5% 14.2% 14.8% 13.4% September 1 breeding 7,290 7,130 7,415 6,898 September-November Sow slaughter 1,019 976 1,093 924 Stag/boar slaughter 216 217 225 204 Gilts/boars added 1,054 1,228 963 1,075 % of inventory 14.5% 17.2% 13.0% 15.6% Sows entering breeding herd: December-February 1/ Sows farrowing 2,892 2,808 2,885 2,886 2,745 Sow slaughter 983 939 919 1,010 904 % of inventory 34.0% 33.4% 31.9% 35.0% 32.9% Sows added 1,459 1,351 1,424 1,294 1,123 % of inventory 43.3% 42.0% 42.0% 40.8% 37.9% March-May Sows farrowing 3,368 3,220 3,390 3,170 2,964 Sow slaughter 934 896 914 907 955 % of inventory 27.7% 27.8% 27.0% 28.6% 32.2% Sows added 586 648 631 713 751 % of inventory 19.4% 21.8% 20.3% 24.0% 27.2% June-August Sows farrowing 3,020 2,972 3,107 2,976 2,760 Sow slaughter 1,096 1,002 1,030 1,015 875 % of inventory 36.3% 33.7% 33.2% 34.1% Sows added 1,068 1,012 920 854 % of inventory 35.7% 33.9% 30.7% 30.3% September-November Sows farrowing 2,992 2,982 2,997 2,815 Sow slaughter 1,019 976 1,093 924 % of inventory 34.1% 32.7% 36.5% 32.8% Sows added 835 879 982 854 % of inventory 29.7% 30.5% 34.0% 31.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ December preceding year 2/ Estimate Farrow-to-finish hog production costs and returns, 1,600 head annual sales, North Central Region 1/ Item Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Cash receipts: 2/ 55.91 56.71 51.80 52.80 51.26 52.56 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.05 3.22 3.08 3.19 3.31 3.12 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 58.96 59.93 54.88 55.99 54.57 55.68 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 19.04 19.18 20.97 22.92 23.22 24.42 Corn (345.6 lb) 8.94 9.81 9.83 10.02 10.55 10.78 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.16 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.16 3.17 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 31.14 32.17 33.98 36.12 36.93 38.37 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.49 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.47 1.41 Mach. and building repairs 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.48 Hired labor 4/ 2.77 2.77 2.77 2.78 2.79 2.71 Miscellaneous 2.33 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.38 2.38 Total variable expenses 40.50 41.61 43.42 45.58 46.34 47.65 General farm overhead 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.47 1.47 Taxes and insurance 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.82 0.82 Interest 2.35 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.35 Total fixed expenses 4.70 4.73 4.73 4.73 4.64 4.64 Total cash expenses 5/ 45.20 46.34 48.15 50.31 50.98 52.29 Receipts less cash expenses 13.76 13.59 6.73 5.68 3.59 3.39 Capital replacement 10.73 10.73 10.73 10.73 10.83 10.83 Receipts less cash expenses 55.93 57.07 58.88 61.04 61.81 63.12 and replacement 3.03 2.86 -4.00 -5.05 -7.24 -7.44 1/The feed rations and expense items do not not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hogs marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. Item Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Cash receipts: 2/ 50.88 50.11 45.50 51.11 55.31 54.72 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.01 3.05 2.91 2.93 3.17 3.01 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 53.89 53.16 48.41 54.04 58.48 57.73 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 24.33 21.41 18.47 18.25 18.33 18.81 Corn (345.6 lb) 11.20 10.73 10.76 10.65 10.91 10.83 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.18 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.19 3.19 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 38.71 35.35 32.44 32.11 32.43 32.83 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.52 1.61 1.68 1.69 1.66 1.60 Mach. and building repairs 1.47 1.48 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.50 Hired labor 4/ 2.71 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.83 2.85 Miscellaneous 2.37 2.38 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.41 Total variable expenses 48.09 44.98 42.15 41.82 42.15 42.51 General farm overhead 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 Taxes and insurance 0.82 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.88 0.90 Interest 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.42 Total fixed expenses 4.64 4.75 4.75 4.76 4.72 4.81 Total cash expenses 5/ 52.73 49.73 46.90 46.58 46.87 47.32 Receipts less cash expenses 1.16 3.43 1.51 7.46 11.61 10.41 Capital replacement 10.83 10.83 10.83 10.83 10.89 10.96 Receipts less cash expenses 63.56 60.56 57.73 57.41 57.76 58.28 and replacement -9.67 -7.40 -9.32 -3.37 0.72 -0.55 1/The feed rations and expense items do not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lbs. of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hogs marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. Pork: Retail, wholesale, and farm values, spreads, and farmers' share Gross Year Retail Wholesale farm By-product Net farm price 1/ value 2/ value 3/ allowance value 5/ --------------------------- Cents per pound 1992 198.0 98.9 72.0 4.2 67.8 1993 197.6 102.9 77.3 4.8 72.5 1994 198.1 98.9 67.4 4.5 62.9 1995 195.4 99.7 72.2 4.9 67.3 1996 220.3 116.4 90.1 6.1 84.0 I 208.2 105.7 79.0 4.9 74.1 II 209.7 108.3 82.9 5.2 77.7 III 208.6 111.1 85.6 5.3 80.3 IV 206.3 105.4 77.9 5.0 73.0 1997 Jan. 232.7 119.6 90.6 6.2 84.4 Feb. 231.3 80.6 61.3 4.3 57.0 Mar. 228.9 66.7 50.6 3.5 47.1 I 231.0 89.0 67.5 4.7 62.8 Apr. 226.5 120.8 92.7 5.9 86.8 May 229.0 124.6 97.7 6.2 91.5 June 233.7 123.0 97.5 6.3 91.2 II 229.7 122.8 96.0 6.2 89.8 July Aug. Sept. III Oct. Nov. Dec. Farm retail spread Year Wholesale Farm- Farmers' Total retail Wholesale share 6/ --------------------------- Percent 1992 130.2 99.1 31.1 34 1993 125.1 94.7 30.4 37 1994 135.2 99.2 36.0 32 1995 128.1 95.7 32.4 34 1996 136.3 103.9 32.4 38 I 134.1 102.5 31.6 36 II 132.0 101.4 30.6 37 III 128.3 97.5 30.8 38 IV 133.4 101.0 32.4 35 1997 Jan. 148.3 113.1 35.2 36 Feb. 98.2 74.6 23.6 25 Mar. 82.2 62.6 19.6 21 I 109.6 83.4 26.1 27 Apr. 139.7 105.7 34.0 38 May 137.5 104.4 33.1 40 June 142.5 110.7 31.8 39 II 139.9 106.9 33.0 39 July Aug. Sept. III Oct. Nov. Dec. 1/ Estimated weighted-average of BLS prices of retail cuts from pork carcus. 2/ Value of wholesale quantity equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. 3/ A wholesale-carcass equivalent of 1.06 is used. 3/ Market values to producer for 1.7 lb of live animal equivalent to 1 lb. of retail cuts. 4/ Portion of gross farm value attributable to edible and inedible by-products. 5/ Gross farm value minus by-product allowance. 6/ Percent net farm value is of retail price. Commercial hog slaughter, production, and prices 1/ Slt'r hog Barrows Boars & Dress- Comm'l Iowa/ Year & gilts Sows Stags Total wt. prod. S. Minn --------- 1,000 hd. --------- Lbs. 1,000 lbs. $/cwt 1992 I 22635 959 208 23802 182 4321 39.55 II 20988 991 223 22202 183 4033 45.70 III 22437 1082 227 23746 182 4263 44.39 IV 23904 1019 215 25138 185 4567 42.48 Year 89964 4051 873 94888 183 17184 43.03 1993 I 21935 903 219 23057 182 4204 44.83 II 21516 910 235 22661 183 4151 47.59 III 21535 1017 225 22777 182 4140 48.05 IV 23401 966 207 24574 185 4535 43.93 Year 88387 3796 886 93069 183 17030 46.10 1994 I 21600 916 226 22742 184 4181 45.70 II 21806 920 240 22966 185 4239 42.90 III 22407 1035 232 23674 183 4326 40.50 IV 24945 1140 230 26315 187 4912 34.97 Year 90758 4011 928 95697 185 17658 41.02 1995 I 23038 946 241 24225 185 4488 38.56 II 22498 922 223 23643 186 4393 38.91 III 22058 981 222 23261 182 4241 48.75 IV 24089 911 197 25197 186 4689 43.19 Year 91683 3760 883 96326 185 17811 42.35 1996 I 22561 912 178 23651 186 4389 46.23 II 21087 933 181 22201 185 4104 54.82 III 21682 860 169 22711 182 4143 57.75 IV 22891 791 151 23833 187 4449 54.75 Year 88221 3496 679 92396 185 17085 53.39 1997 I 21440 722 152 22314 188 4192 51.06 II 2/ 20915 764 153 21832 188 4100 56.41 III 3/ 23700 184 4350 54-58 IV 3/ 23700 186 4400 54-58 Year 3/ 91546 186 17042 53-59 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Classes estimated. 2/Preliminary. 3/Forecast. U.S. Hog & Pork Trade 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Pork Imports Canada 485257 545586 508773 453182 437058 403938 Denmark 368484 345292 326509 198391 273244 245956 Poland 121851 125342 128619 112789 66614 21640 Hungary 48486 50011 44195 26159 33117 39028 Netherlands 12289 17350 22591 15259 15650 17697 Other 85221 111546 106545 89870 72198 46505 Total 1121588 1195126 1137231 895650 897882 774765 Pork Exports Japan 39562 61731 121209 147752 125487 122886 Canada 10099 9436 8844 12990 22796 27024 Mexico 2262 7098 34897 60161 38282 81495 Caribbean 14297 12334 10800 14996 14958 13332 Other 19445 18714 19481 26521 36893 37537 Total 85665 109312 195231 262419 238416 282275 Hog Imports Canada 503728 446056 835125 1073164 886277 1054236 Under 110 lb 169738 204184 226303 Total 503728 446056 835949 1073646 890252 1057685 Hog Exports Total 12993 7409 91292 93343 56652 267853 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Pork Imports Canada 391233 402275 421768 453925 437397 Denmark 168908 233772 244545 144516 122211 Poland 13192 13834 11581 11984 10525 Hungary 21323 29933 18210 10608 8761 Netherlands 16894 22771 16769 10671 8479 Other 33955 37613 30896 32258 31511 Total 645505 740197 743769 663963 618884 Pork Exports Japan 212591 220933 239876 364676 500319 Canada 31430 36364 52902 57771 94374 Mexico 107747 92986 150252 59855 55868 Caribbean 9523 8669 8351 11120 11831 Other 45042 76169 80607 277286 289242 Total 406332 435121 531988 770707 951635 Hog Imports Canada 669769 837832 914755 1747160 2778741 Under 110 lbs. 226896 280813 401981 651096 766974 Total 674469 840050 921274 1750138 2779175 Hog Exports Total 105631 40636 136148 16059 55883 Selected price and slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 5/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hog prices: Barrows and gilts 230-250 lb Iowa/S. Minn. No. 1-3 53.42 51.44 48.32 54.07 57.55 57.6 Sioux City 52.96 51.36 48.52 54.41 57.84 57.43 6 markets 1/ 53.09 51.49 48.44 54.32 57.54 57.42 Sows: 6 markets 1/ 48.29 48.68 46.56 46.23 51.02 47.96 Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 lbs. Nebraska direct 65.51 65.48 68.21 68.32 67.49 64.07 Farm prices: Hogs 53.8 52.8 49.4 53.8 58.2 57.2 Beef cattle 61.4 61.9 64.8 64.8 65.1 61.9 Meat prices: Wholesale Central U.S. markets Pork cut-out, #2 2/ 71.33 70 68.85 72.64 76.83 75.94 Pork loins 14-18 lb. 112.5 109.5 106.58 117.16 125.68 116.28 Pork bellies 12-14 lb. 72.04 68.42 69.05 80.54 82.58 80.68 Hams, skinned 17-20 lb. 69.64 71.95 66.26 63.43 66.19 70.43 20-26 lb. 66.49 64.3 57.26 59.62 63.25 66.36 Boxed beef cut-out Choice, 1-3 700-850 lb. 100.79 98.17 104.33 103.56 105.72 101.63 Retail prices Pork 232.7 231.3 228.9 226.5 229 233.7 Bacon, sliced 264 264 264 264 264 264 Chops, center cut 344 344 344 344 344 344 Ham, rump or shank 196 196 196 196 196 196 Sirloin roast 262 262 262 262 262 262 Picnic, smoked 131 131 131 131 131 131 Sausage, fresh 215 215 215 215 215 215 Beef, Choice 281.7 278.6 276.1 279 280.3 277.6 Composite broiler 152.4 152.8 149.3 148.8 151.9 151.9 Price indexes: (BLS) All meats 144.5 144 143.1 143.4 143.9 144.5 Beef and veal 137.5 136.6 135.8 136.2 136.9 136.4 Pork 155.7 155.2 153.6 153.6 154.3 157.4 Poultry 158.2 157.9 156.3 155.4 156.6 156.7 Commercial: 4/ Slaughter Hogs 7,758 6,972 7,584 7,727 7,104 7,001 Barrows and gilts 7,451 6,696 7,293 7,414 6,806 6,695 Sows 255 226 241 257 249 258 Stags and boars 52 50 50 56 49 48 Cattle 3,248 2,797 2,862 3,060 3,184 3,083 Production Pork 1,461 1,309 1,422 1,446 1,333 1,320 Beef 2,223 1,921 1,968 2,096 2,190 2,144 Veal 31 27 28 28 26 26 Lamb and mutton 20 21 26 22 22 20 Cold storage stocks: 5/ Total pork 313.823 344.483 386.617 404.715 440.248 410.134 Hams 33.506 49.782 55.705 55.795 85.753 98.027 Pork belly 37.93 38.03 44.277 54.767 54.015 55.274 Ribs 71.234 72.938 70.438 68.526 62.646 45.665 Trim & other 103.69 113.685 139.655 145.393 148.823 128.203 Federal inspected: Hog weights live wt 257 256 256 256 256 256 dressed wt 189 189 188 188 189 189 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Omaha, Sioux City, Sioux Falls, So. St. Joseph, and So. St. Paul. 2/ 175 lb. carcass. 3/ Classes esimated. 4/ End of month. 5/ Preliminary. Meat supply, carcass weight 1/ ------------------------------------------------------ Production ------------------Begin- Year Commer- Total ning Im- Total cial stocks ports supply ------------------------------------------------------ Million pounds Beef: 1993 22,942 23,049 360 2,401 25,810 1994 24,278 24,386 529 2,368 27,283 1995 25,115 25,222 548 2,104 27,874 1996 I 6,303 6,340 519 508 7,367 II 6,642 6,658 461 526 7,645 III 6,390 6,406 406 555 7,367 IV 6,084 6,121 414 484 7,019 Year 25,419 25,525 519 2,073 28,117 1997 I 6,112 6,149 377 536 7,062 II 6,425 6,441 387 610 7,438 III 2/ 6,525 6,541 365 640 7,546 IV 2/ 6,075 6,112 375 590 7,077 Year 25,137 25,243 1,504 2,376 29,123 1998 I 2/ 6,025 6,062 375 630 7,067 Year 24,800 24,906 1,400 2,440 28,746 Pork: 1993 17,030 17,088 385 740 18,213 1994 17,658 17,696 359 743 18,798 1995 17,085 17,117 438 618 18,173 1996 I 4,389 4,397 396 144 4,937 II 4,104 4,112 413 155 4,680 III 4,143 4,151 404 154 4,709 IV 4,449 4,457 401 165 5,023 Year 17,085 17,117 396 618 18,131 1997 I 4,194 4,202 366 158 4,726 II 4,100 4,108 477 140 4,725 III 2/ 4,275 4,283 500 135 4,918 IV 2/ 4,550 4,558 425 160 5,143 Year 17,119 17,151 366 593 18,110 1998 I 2/ 4,500 4,508 400 150 5,058 Year 18,475 18,507 1,600 605 20,712 Veal: 1993 267 285 5 290 1994 283 293 4 297 1995 1996 I 90 94 7 101 II 87 89 7 96 III 95 97 5 102 IV 95 98 6 104 Year 367 378 7 385 1997 I 85 89 7 96 II 80 82 6 88 III 2/ 75 77 6 83 IV 2/ 72 75 6 81 Year 312 323 7 330 1998 I 2/ 65 69 7 76 Year 260 271 25 296 Lamb: 1993 329 337 8 53 398 1994 304 308 8 49 365 1995 264 268 11 73 352 1996 I 74 75 8 19 102 II 64 65 12 18 95 III 60 61 14 18 93 IV 66 67 11 18 96 Year 264 268 8 73 349 1997 I 66 67 9 25 101 II 64 65 11 20 96 III 2/ 55 56 14 20 90 IV 2/ 58 59 9 20 88 Year 243 247 9 85 341 1998 I 2/ 62 63 9 23 95 Year 227 231 41 85 357 1/ Total 2/ Forecast Meat utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------- Per capita consumption Total ---------------------- Year Exports Ending disap- Carcass Retail stocks pearance weight weight ------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Pounds Beef: 1993 1,275 529 24,006 93.0 65.1 1994 1,611 548 25,124 96.4 67.0 1995 1,821 519 25,534 97.0 67.4 1996 I 452 461 6,454 24.4 17.0 II 544 406 6,695 25.2 17.5 III 436 414 6,517 24.5 17.0 IV 445 377 6,197 23.2 16.2 Year 1,877 377 25,863 97.4 67.7 1997 I 455 387 6,220 23.3 16.2 II 455 365 6,618 24.7 17.2 III 2/ 510 375 6,661 24.8 17.3 IV 2/ 495 375 6,207 23.1 16.0 Year 1,915 1,502 25,706 95.9 66.6 1998 I 2/ 475 350 6,242 23.2 16.1 Year 2,140 1,375 25,231 93.3 64.8 Pork: 1993 435 359 17,419 67.5 52.4 1994 531 438 17,829 68.4 53.1 1995 951 396 16,826 63.3 49.1 1996 I 221 413 4,303 16.3 12.6 II 313 404 3,963 14.9 11.6 III 180 401 4,128 15.5 12.0 IV 237 366 4,420 16.6 12.9 Year 951 366 16,814 63.3 49.1 1997 I 192 477 4,057 15.2 11.8 II 260 500 3,965 14.8 11.5 III 2/ 368 425 4,125 15.4 11.9 IV 2/ 430 400 4,313 16.0 12.4 Year 1,250 400 16,460 61.4 47.6 1998 I 2/ 315 400 4,343 16.1 12.5 Year 1,465 1,580 17,667 65.3 50.7 Veal: 1993 4 286 1.1 0.9 1994 7 290 1.2 0.8 1995 1996 I 7 94 0.4 0.3 II 5 91 0.3 0.3 III 6 96 0.4 0.3 IV 7 97 0.4 0.3 Year 7 378 1.4 1.2 1997 I 6 90 0.3 0.3 II 5 83 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 6 76 0.3 0.2 IV 2/ 7 74 0.3 0.2 Year 7 323 1.2 1.0 1998 I 2/ 6 70 0.3 0.2 Year 24 272 1.0 0.8 Lamb: 1993 8 8 381 1.5 1.3 1994 9 11 345 1.3 1.2 1995 6 8 338 1.3 1.1 1996 I 2 12 88 0.3 0.3 II 1 14 80 0.3 0.3 III 1 11 81 0.3 0.3 IV 2 9 85 0.3 0.3 Year 6 9 334 1.3 1.1 1997 I 2 11 88 0.3 0.3 II 2 14 80 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 2 9 79 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 2 9 77 0.3 0.3 Year 8 9 324 1.2 1.1 1998 I 2/ 2 11 82 0.3 0.3 Year 8 43 306 1.1 1.0 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding 2/ Forecast END_OF_FILE