LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY December 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-36. NOTE: In 1997, CATTLE AND SHEEP OUTLOOK, HOG OUTLOOK, AND POULTRY OUTLOOK will no longer be published, but the information typically contained in them will be incorporated into an expanded version of this report. The first issue will be published on January 15. Please note that the release time has been changed to 12:00 noon. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock number LDP-M. MasterCard and Visa accepted. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dairy Sales Slip Sales of dairy products slowed in September-October, evidence that high spring and summer prices had led to a consumer response. However, the mildness of the decline indicates that dairy demand probably remains fairly strong. Since late 1995, economic growth has boosted demand. Actual sales to final users may have slowed relatively little, with much of the slowing in wholesale movement reflecting adjustments to pipeline stocks. September-October commercial use of American cheese and of other varieties was down about 1 percent from a year earlier, compared with 4- and 3-percent increases during the first 8 months of 1996. These decreases can almost be considered a sign of strength. If sales to consumers had slowed substantially, the large increases in July-August disappearance would have caused greatly swollen pipeline holdings. Such pipeline holdings would then be expected to lead to a sharp drop in wholesale movement, not the mild dip observed so far. Commercial disappearance of nonfat dry milk in September was above the weak levels of a year earlier, but much below levels earlier in 1996. Most of the variation appears to be due to fluctuations in the amounts used to produce other dairy products, making it difficult to discern the underlying demand pattern. However, use of nonfat dry milk as a final product appears to have stayed fairly brisk. Butter sales rose sharply in April-May, fell in June-August, and were modestly below a year earlier in September-October. Wholesale movement reportedly has been again heavy since prices quit declining in mid-November. Pipeline stocks last spring were undoubtedly built to large holdings in anticipation of very tight summer markets for milkfat. Pipelines were reduced during the summer but remained large enough, in combination with the September-October production rise, to allow prices to drop. However, wholesale buyers evidently had not fully covered their holiday needs, or at least the expanded volumes needed for the retail specials that lower prices encouraged. Among other products, fluid milk sales in 1996 have risen at an unusually stable rate of just less than 1 percent. September-October sales of cottage cheese posted a relatively rare increase, but use of frozen desserts, except for ice cream, was substantially lower. The season confuses interpretation of recent commercial disappearance data, particularly for cheese and butter. The apparent resilience may be underlying strength in consumer demand, temporary seasonal strength, or merely a reluctance of traders to let pipeline stocks drop too much before they see what holiday sales do. Commercial disappearance data probably will not provide a normal gauge of final sales until conditions stabilize in early winter. Demand should remain generally favorable in 1997, as income growth continues to boost use of some major dairy products. However, sales at retail may be weakened, particularly during the first half of the year, by high prices. Prices will generally be more favorable for wholesale buyers such as food processors or restaurants. However, these buyers did not appear to respond much at all to the high 1996 prices, implying that little boost will occur because of the subsequent fall. Commercial use in 1997 is projected to rise only fractionally on either a milkfat or skim solids basis. Poultry Export Pace Slows in September The pace of growth in most poultry exports slowed somewhat in September. Broiler shipments were 341 million pounds, up 11 percent from a year earlier, after averaging 19 percent higher through August. September turkey exports were 8 percent higher than a year earlier, but had increased 39 percent over the first 8 months of 1996. Exports of shell eggs and egg products were up 17 percent, less than half the rate they had been expanding at through August. In September broiler exports were 33 million pounds higher than the previous year. Continued large sales to FSU countries accounted for most of the increase, up 56 million from a year earlier. The increases helped to offset lower shipments to such major markets as Hong Kong, Japan,and Canada, and no growth in exports to Mexico. In September turkey exports totaled 32 million pounds, up 8 percent from the previous year. Higher shipments to Mexico, Russia, and Hong Kong made up a more than a 50-percent decline in shipments to Korea. The turkey export market continues to change. Exports to Russia have gone from less than 5 million pounds in 1993 to an estimated 165 million in 1996, making it either the first or second largest market. Shipments to Hong Kong were below 7 million pounds in 1993, but have grown steadily to an estimated 25 million in 1996. At that level Hong Kong would likely be the third largest market for U.S. turkey products. Exports of other chicken products have expanded enormously in 1996 and are expected to total 225 million pounds, 127 percent higher than in 1995. This is a larger than turkey exports were in 1993. Again, a surge in exports to Hong Kong has been central to the export increase. Exports to Hong Kong are expected to approach 91 million pounds in 1996, compared to less than 1 million pounds in 1993. While exports of other chicken products are not projected to grow as rapidly in 1997, increasing economic growth is expected to enlarge the world market for inexpensive meat protein. Poultry and Egg Prices Weakening All the major wholesale prices for poultry have been are weakening in recent weeks. After retailers finish buying supplies for the December holidays, demand for turkeys and eggs usually declines. Broiler prices were higher than expected during the fall and are just beginning to show the normal fourth-quarter price weakness that is associated with increased turkey and ham demand for the fall holiday season. Strong Broiler Demand Supporting Prices Broiler production during 1996 is expected to increase 5-6 percent and yet prices at the wholesale and retail level are at record highs. Strong demand was a major contributor to the higher prices, but higher feed costs likely resulted in tougher negotiations by broiler marketers. During December wholesale prices will average about 5 cents per pound above last year while production costs are about 1 cent per pound higher. Feed costs should continue to decline from recent levels during early 1997 and will drop below a year ago in January. Smaller production increases during the first quarter of 1997, 4-5 percent compared to 7.5 percent last year, will support wholesale prices near last year's 56 cents per pound even as costs decline. Smaller supplies of red meat during the first half of 1997 should also support poultry prices. Egg Demand Continues Strong Egg wholesale and retail prices are expected to be record high this year even as production increases 3 percent. Even as December wholesale egg prices have fallen 20 cents per dozen from the Thanksgiving peak, fourth-quarter prices are expected to be 10 percent higher than last year with 4 percent more production. Fourth quarter exports are expected to be 4 percent above last year while stocks increase 7 percent. This leaves 3-4 percent more eggs than last year for consumer use. Consumption is expected to increase by 3 eggs per person. Shell egg consumption is expected to increase for the first time since 1979, by 1-2 egg per person. The rest of the consumption increase will be made up of egg products. Turkey Prices Falling Slowly Wholesale turkey prices in December have fallen very slowly from the Thanksgiving peak. This has allowed prices for eastern region hens to move above a year ago for the first time since July. Demand for turkeys has evidently been quite good because prices are holding fairly well even as 4 percent more birds are expected for slaughter in December and weights are expected to be 2 percent higher than last year. Per capita consumption of turkey is expected to increase to 18.5 pounds in 1996 after holding just below 18 pounds since 1990. Consumption was a little higher each quarter of the year but most of the increase came in the third quarter. Hog Slaughter Declines Weekly hog slaughter in the fourth quarter was relatively flat instead of the usual seasonal increases into early December. Slaughter for the quarter was down about 5 percent from a year ago, but dressed weights averaged about 2 pounds heavier. As a result, pork production was about 4 percent below last year. With hog prices in the mid-$50's per cwt and corn prices down sharply from record highs last summer, producers' returns remain favorable. Weekly sow slaughter continued well below a year ago as it has since late June. The continuing very low sow slaughter suggests that producers have reduced their culling rates and have bred sows for another litter. The Hogs and Pigs report to be released on December 27 will provide information on inventories, pig crops, and farrowing intentions. Fourth-quarter composite retail pork prices are averaging about 15 percent higher than a year earlier. The farm value is up about 28 percent, while the farm-retail spread has increased about 8 percent. For all of 1996, retail prices have averaged about 13 percent higher than in 1995. Beef Prices Pressured Prices for Choice boxed beef have declined sharply as supplies increased and as concerns about export demand have increased. Choice boxed prices peaked just before Thanksgiving near $120 per cwt, before falling to about $105 in December. The spread between Choice and Select boxed beef prices was over $21 per cwt in November, but narrowed to less than $10 in mid-December. Supplies of Choice beef are rising following large summer placements as domestic demand weakens seasonally. However, the fairly sharp price declines suggest weak export demand as health concerns in Japan continue to hold down food demand. Although the U.S. has worked closely with Japan to isolate and alleviate the E. coli problem in Japan's food system, it likely will be late winter and the end of the cold-flu season before Japanese consumers become more confident and U.S. exports begin to rise from the present low levels. Prospects of continued larger fed beef supplies through spring 1997 reduced incentives to accumulate stocks, further eroding price support, although concerns over winter weather supply shocks have heightened considerably in recent weeks. Cattle on feed inventories continue to rise as more lighter weight stocker-feeder cattle are forced into feedlots. As weather conditions deteriorate, already reduced forage supplies will become increasingly tight with increased supplemental feeding forcing more cattle into feedlots. Monthly steer and heifer slaughter, while rising, remains somewhat below a year earlier due in part to the holidays occurring in mid-week this year. Reduced export demand puts less of a premium on higher grading cattle, so slaughter weights are likely to remain below a year earlier. Cow slaughter, while declining seasonally is likely to remain near to above large year-earlier levels until late winter as the new grazing season approaches. Any increased supplemental feed needs will result in additional cow slaughter. Retail prices for Choice beef have risen to $2.86 a pound, near year- earlier levels. Prices are likely to average in the lower $2.80's per pound through first-half 1997 even as fed beef supplies increase, but increased export demand beginning in late winter will be a key to retail price strength. Prices for the All fresh beef series will remain under pressure as long as cow slaughter remains large and beef imports remain above a year earlier due to health concerns and slack world demand. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller(Dairy),LaVerne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,420 6,612 7,486 8,534 Net placements 1,743 2,206 2,479 1,877 Marketings 1,478 1,332 1,431 1,438 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 525,505 563,188 538,040 526,525 Chicks hatched (000)/2 627,767 656,696 651,791 631,292 Hatching egg layers/1 49,445 49,664 48,782 48,394 Pullets placed (000) 6,656 6,166 6,221 6,508 Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,029 5,753 6,386 4,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 31,962 31,929 32,332 31,668 Poults placed (000) 24,619 24,208 25,354 23,750 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 442 442 462 455 Table egg layers, (000)/1 242,405 245,290 247,487 248,791 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.7 71.8 71.7 72.2 Chicks hatched (000) 29,130 31,956 33,176 31,495 Lt.-type hen slaughter 6,943 6,803 8,131 6,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 60.18 66.31 68.74 66.97 Selling price 66.14 70.95 70.70 66.05 Net margin 5.96 4.64 1.96 -0.92 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 38.44 49.90 48.94 49.77 Selling price 44.04 55.10 54.33 55.00 Net margin 5.60 5.20 5.39 5.23 Broiler Wholesale cost 51.67 57.49 55.01 52.61 Wholesale price 58.87 62.64 64.60 64.00 Net margin 7.20 5.15 9.59 11.39 Turkey Wholesale cost 63.82 77.27 75.50 71.72 Wholesale price 68.50 69.52 71.13 68.00 Net margin 4.68 -7.75 -4.37 -3.72 Egg Wholesale cost 72.69 75.86 71.96 71.16 Wholesale price 94.08 89.21 103.32 105.00 Net margin 21.39 13.35 31.36 33.84 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 66.14 70.95 70.70 66.05 Nebraska Direct 66.34 71.09 72.61 66.60 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 33.83 32.79 29.07 28.30 Utility boning 30.40 29.13 25.17 25.45 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 65.13 64.69 68.00 69.25 600-650 lb. 63.58 63.63 64.44 66.75 750-800 lb. 68.33 64.19 67.19 67.75 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 56.00 56.72 57.25 56.55 700-750 lb. 62.71 58.84 61.16 61.50 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 43.73 55.03 54.75 55.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 44.04 55.10 54.33 55.00 Sows 6 Markets 33.24 50.76 54.36 49.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 28.75 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 70.50 82.58 80.00 85.25 Ewes, Good 34.83 38.36 42.08 45.75 Feeder lambs, Choice 83.83 88.79 92.33 108.50 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.39 2.81 2.63 2.62 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.51 4.71 4.73 4.73 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 223.60 248.61 251.48 253.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 85.70 97.60 98.20 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 81.30 93.70 95.10 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 106.08 109.10 117.53 107.70 Choice 1-3 700-850# 104.01 107.36 115.57 106.20 Select 1-3 700-850# 94.39 99.64 97.15 94.30 Cutter Cow 58.82 57.29 53.90 53.60 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 84.73 82.81 78.38 79.80 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 94.25 87.40 85.44 83.25 Hide & offal value 8.37 9.69 9.34 9.55 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 164.52 174.23 161.85 171.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 62.46 75.03 75.86 74.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 110.39 115.40 115.39 119.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 51.45 63.07 65.27 70.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 55.99 79.00 74.83 65.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 43.33 67.97 64.49 62.25 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 165.25 169.93 165.25 169.50 55-65 lb., Choice 160.25 169.83 165.25 169.50 Broilers 12 City Avg. 58.87 62.64 64.60 64.00 Georgia dock 57.78 64.42 64.83 64.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 153.49 169.43 170.38 155.00 Breast, Ribs on 73.71 82.16 84.57 75.00 Legs, whole 58.61 59.22 60.22 57.00 Leg quarters 42.74 45.29 45.57 37.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 68.41 71.43 70.63 65.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 70.35 69.09 73.58 71.00 Drumsticks 28.61 35.44 34.73 35.00 Wings, full cut 30.90 41.13 43.55 46.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 94.08 89.21 103.32 105.00 New York 91.80 86.68 102.25 102.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 286.4 280.7 281.9 285.9 Beef - All Fresh 258.7 250.0 249.9 249.0 Ground Beef 136.8 136.0 137.1 140.3 Rib roast 510.0 504.2 509.5 522.2 T-bone steak 606.6 580.1 565.0 574.3 Pork 200.8 234.2 233.0 231.6 Bacon 215.5 280.9 272.1 265.6 Chops 326.5 350.5 347.4 342.1 Picnic 117.5 127.4 126.4 131.4 Chicken - Composite 150.2 158.0 152.9 151.5 Whole, fresh 94.8 100.6 102.1 100.3 Breast - bone in 206.7 213.5 201.4 204.9 Leg quarter 120.9 129.9 128.5 123.5 Turkey; whole frozen 97.1 106.5 107.4 98.1 Eggs, Grade A, Large 103.7 115.0 112.9 113.9 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 153.6 157.8 158.3 158.6 All food 149.4 154.6 155.4 155.9 All meat 137.7 143.0 143.6 144.6 Beef & veal 135.2 134.7 136.0 137.3 Pork 139.7 156.3 156.0 156.0 Poultry 146.3 155.8 157.1 157.3 Dairy Products 133.7 146.7 149.3 149.1 Fluid milk & cream 133.1 145.6 149.0 150.5 Manufactured products 134.9 148.5 150.2 148.8 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 25.6 18.1 20.5 28.9 Wholesale to retail 119.4 118.9 114.9 105.9 Farmers share (%) 49.0 51.0 52.0 53.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 38.0 34.9 34.4 37.1 Wholesale to retail 100.0 113.4 111.3 107.7 Farmers share (%) 31.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 85.6 88.4 87.2 84.6 Retail to consumer Turkey 10.6 30.3 28.9 18.0 Eggs 12.6 21.7 24.7 12.4 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Dec-95 Dec-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 25,115 25,472 2,179 1,955 2,003 Veal 308 364 34 30 28 Pork 17,811 17,077 1,591 1,429 1,425 Lamb 281 263 23 21 21 Total red meat 43,515 43,176 3,827 3,435 3,477 Broilers 25,021 26,422 2,389 2,025 2,200 Other chicken 495 489 47 33 35 Turkeys 5,129 5,472 519 460 430 Total poultry 30,644 32,383 2,955 2,518 2,665 Total meat & poultry 74,159 75,559 6,782 5,953 6,142 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 35,639 36,643 3,151 2,872 2,942 Steers 18,274 17,901 1,391 1,299 1,365 Heifers 10,399 10,726 971 831 859 Beef Cows 3,355 4,482 422 410 697 Dairy Cows 2,926 3,100 295 273 265 Bulls and stags 686 734 72 59 56 Calves 1,430 1,750 165 145 136 Sheep 4,560 4,179 377 336 342 Hogs 96,326 92,376 8,591 7,621 7,600 Barrows & gilts 91,683 88,173 8,251 7,322 7,270 Sows 3,760 3,526 285 250 285 Broilers 7,371,429 7,566,030 679,706 575,000 620,000 Turkeys 281,032 294,029 27,937 25,500 23,000 Dec-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 714 708 699 687 688 Calves 208 208 208 209 210 Sheep 63 61 63 63 64 Hogs 188 184 186 189 188 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 381.4 305.1 312.2 295.5 290.5 Pork 347.1 320.0 340.3 330.3 316.7 Bellies 37.1 19.0 12.7 16.2 30.9 Hams 60.9 83.4 94.2 80.4 48.8 Total chicken 512.6 616.1 587.5 592.0 573.4 Turkey 270.1 723.2 721.0 659.2 347.6 Frozen eggs 12.5 15.0 14.9 12.7 10.3 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Sep-96 Oct-96 Jan - Jan - Oct-95 Oct-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 49,761 49,465 578,156 453,552 New Zealand 19,753 21,043 521,763 450,954 Canada 50,342 57,183 365,764 487,708 Brazil 5,491 9,416 56,693 75,064 Argentina 18,834 12,884 147,778 132,342 Central America 10,230 9,413 121,406 90,315 Other 7,630 5,844 19,390 63,761 Total 162,041 165,248 1,810,949 1,753,698 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 67,354 79,001 828,898 885,548 Canada 21,757 23,137 256,089 245,650 Mexico 16,607 16,514 78,583 135,344 Korea, Rep. 16,052 15,689 211,467 167,840 Caribbean 654 1,337 9,785 9,963 Other 14,399 16,379 101,531 140,708 Total 136,823 152,058 1,486,353 1,585,053 Cattle Imports Mexico 3,594 12,349 1,368,877 246,459 Canada 123,436 122,741 973,471 1,352,930 Over 700 lbs. 115,526 111,234 917,906 1,235,241 500-700 lbs. 2,878 5,329 7,749 65,159 Total 127,034 135,090 2,342,403 1,599,430 Cattle Exports Mexico 11,610 14,264 12,030 90,387 Canada 2,264 3,846 56,340 30,116 Total 14,421 18,406 78,088 137,865 Lamb Imports Australia 1,718 2,389 15,610 21,448 New Zealand 1,884 1,676 18,761 20,805 Total 3,611 4,067 34,841 42,560 Mutton Imports 1,246 1,352 16,932 17,800 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 12/31/95 12/15/96 % Chg Canada 370,005 479,255 2952.7% TRQ Countries 995,515 854,018 -1421.3% Australia 478,233 386,077 -1927.0% New Zealand 414,919 351,805 -1521.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sep-96 Oct-96 Jan - Jan - Oct-95 Oct-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 34,161 43,387 381,533 359,682 Denmark 10,621 8,729 118,605 102,925 Poland 971 930 9,578 8,493 Hungary 133 649 9,627 7,286 Netherlands 657 457 8,600 7,450 Other 2,218 3,697 27,730 25,581 Total 48,761 57,849 555,674 511,418 Pork Exports Japan 30,496 40,588 313,728 442,322 Canada 7,369 6,925 44,121 78,448 Mexico 4,856 4,688 48,389 40,247 Caribbean 791 1,515 8,615 8,859 Other 18,355 24,513 234,510 223,021 Total 61,866 78,229 649,364 792,896 Hog Imports Head Canada 244,463 280,915 1,404,230 2,305,406 Under 110 lb 66,375 71,096 557,964 655,981 Total 244,463 280,985 1,406,599 2,305,640 Hog Exports Total 1,076 1,212 10,207 44,663 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 23,651 27,005 212,887 213,922 Mexico 19,414 20,987 169,726 179,331 Hong Kong 73,941 74,286 816,002 814,739 Singapore 4,604 4,943 40,894 43,447 Canada 6,195 5,703 63,914 60,783 Former USSR 137,486 192,978 1,150,058 1,514,706 Total 341,158 418,849 3,139,024 3,671,976 Turkey Exports Mexico 13,497 18,821 105,380 125,165 S. Korea 1,213 1,437 31,353 19,080 Hong Kong 3,406 3,260 16,970 20,968 Total 32,248 42,514 274,578 355,290 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,343 11,167 86,939 95,402 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,616 10,640 10,977 10,634 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,043 7,957 7,953 7,939 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,320 1,337 1,380 1,339 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,297 12,273 12,715 12,318 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 14.00 16.30 16.10 15.20 Milk for fluid use 14.00 16.40 16.20 15.30 Manuf. grade milk 13.10 15.30 14.70 13.10 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.87 15.37 14.13 11.61 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 103.5 145.5 128.6 74.1 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 145.8 173.9 162.3 133.9 Barrels 138.8 168.1 148.2 121.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 113.4 131.9 131.6 126.6 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,615 1,713 1,550 1,513 Nonfat dry milk 2,272 1,850 1,918 1,930 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 18.4 26.4 20.9 20.3 Commercial American cheese 312.3 368.5 363.7 370.1 Other cheese 106.3 121.6 122.0 115.1 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 70.1 66.1 50.2 47.2 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,292 5,036 4,847 4,806 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,175 5,774 5,520 5,444 All Government (mf. basis) 122 24 17 10 All Government (ss. basis) 242 11 10 9 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 Nonfat dry milk 4.6 1.2 3.2 3.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 19.6 4.4 5.8 5.5 All products (ss basis 2/) 69.9 18.0 42.9 45.6 Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 93.5 73.2 81.0 94.3 American cheese 252.8 262.3 260.2 265.2 Other-than-American cheese 341.2 318.0 324.9 340.5 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 92.5 118.3 98.7 90.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 7566.8 7582.2 7469.4 7630.7 Nonfat dry milk 75.7 61.7 56.2 65.9 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 99.2 77.7 86.8 95.0 American cheese 261.0 283.7 268.4 262.3 Other-than-American cheese 373.8 365.6 354.6 380.0 Nonfat dry milk 55.0 69.2 71.3 66.1 All products (mf. basis) 13085.0 13236.0 12639.0 12950.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 272.6 302.1 298.0 321.4 Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,900 7,058 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,485 25,375 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,132 17,500 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,453 28,000 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,463 5,575 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,549 77,395 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,411 5,575 Milk 153,626 155,643 154,600 156,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 155,700 156,600 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 200 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.6 65.7 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.2 49.5 Broilers 69.4 68.8 70.8 73.5 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.6 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.0 210.3 209.6 210.3 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.6 242.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 65.0 64-69 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 60.7 65-70 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 30.0 35-37 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53.6 51-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 61.3 55-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66.4 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 88.1 81-86 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.8-14.8 13.3-14.2 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.4-13.4 12.4-13.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,857 2,185 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,089 2,050 Pork exports 531 770 904 1,064 Pork imports 743 664 620 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,553 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 451 510 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.2 17.9 17.0 16.7 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.3 52.8 52.4 53.8 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 6,966 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,391 6,150 Pork 4,388 4,103 4,141 4,500 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,587 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,411 1,400 Total Meat 18,848 18,973 18,764 18,964 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,323 1,354 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 39,111 39,706 37,778 37,900 Commercial use 37,856 39,934 39,000 38,900 Net removals 20 29 22 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 13.0 Broilers 17.6 18.1 17.9 17.2 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.6 6.3 Total Meat 51.8 52.1 52.3 53.4 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 59.3 61.1 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 ERR Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 ERR Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 ERR Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 ERR Broiler,12 City 56.20 61.10 64.20 ERR Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 ERR Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 ERR Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.70 14.9-15.1 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 15.20 12.8-12.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 425 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 500 Pork exports 221 313 180 190 Pork imports 144 155 154 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,300 Turkey exports 96 93 124 138 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,008 7,044 7,079 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.2 5.2 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 6.4 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,300 6,500 6,500 Pork 4,200 4,250 4,325 Broilers 6,900 7,050 7,050 Turkeys 1,300 1,400 1,450 Total Meat 18,966 19,431 19,539 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 1,375 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 38,800 40,300 38,400 Commercial use 37,900 39,800 39,300 Net removals 200 200 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.7 16.8 16.8 Pork 11.9 11.8 12.4 Broilers 18.5 18.7 18.5 Turkeys 4.0 4.0 4.5 Total Meat 52.0 52.0 52.8 Eggs, number 60.0 59.7 61.1 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 64-66 63-67 63-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 63-65 65-69 65-71 Brk Cows,S. Falls 29-31 35-37 36-40 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 53-55 53-57 53-57 Broiler,12 City 55-57 56-60 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 61-65 64-70 Eggs, New York 83-87 79-85 79-85 Milk, all at plant 13.0-13.6 12.9-13.9 13.0-14.0 Milk, M-W 12.2-12.7 12.0-12.9 12.2-13.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 575 560 Beef/veal imports 525 525 500 Pork exports 242 350 245 Pork imports 154 154 142 Broiler exports 1,150 1,225 1,275 Turkey exports 117 123 129 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 END_OF_FILE