LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY November 25, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-35. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock number LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beef Herd Liquidation Continues Cow slaughter remains well above a year earlier and is rising seasonally as this year's calf crop is weaned. Continued weak feeder cattle prices and hay supply concerns, as winter approaches, are likely to encourage even closer culling of the cow herd. Although steer slaughter through the first three quarters of this year was down more than 1 percent from a year earlier, heifer slaughter was up nearly 4 percent, and cow slaughter was up 17 percent. Beef cow slaughter was up 27 percent. Year-to-year increases in cow slaughter are expected to begin to phase down during the fourth quarter. Cow slaughter this fall may rise only about 6 percent from the already large year-earlier level. First-quarter 1997 cow slaughter, although large, is expected to decline 4 to 5 percent from the very large 1996 figure, but remain 6 percent above the 1992-95 average. Total cow slaughter is expected to rise 14 percent from a year earlier in 1996, and may decline 8 to 10 percent in 1997. In addition to seasonally large cow slaughter this fall, fed cattle marketings are likely to begin to rise in response to larger feedlot placements beginning in July. However, the largest cow slaughter will likely be behind before fed cattle marketings show any appreciable increases. The November Cattle on Feed report covering feedlots with over 1,000 head of capacity indicated inventories in the 7 monthly reporting States were up 1 percent from a year earlier. Placements on feed during October were up 11 percent from the very large year-earlier placements. This increase follows year-to-year placement gains of 6, 19, and 4 percent in July, August, and September. Fed cattle marketings in October continued below a year earlier, largely due to lower spring placements. Fed cattle marketings will rise as the larger summer placements are marketed, but greatest pressure will be in December through at least first-quarter 1997. However, weather conditions are already deteriorating and a continuation of wet, cold weather in many feeding areas along with lower feeding costs could spread out the marketing pace. Increased placements since early summer and heavy placement weights are likely to push up slaughter levels even as export demand for higher quality beef remains very sluggish. Prices for fed cattle peaked near $71-$72 per cwt in September-November, and are expected to fall toward the mid-$60's by late fall. However, marketings are likely to rise well above a year earlier through the remainder of the fourth quarter, with marketings for the entire quarter about unchanged from a year earlier. Marketings are expected to rise about 3 percent from a year earlier in first-quarter 1997 as the large late summer-early fall placements are marketed. A more normal placement pattern in 1997 may slightly reduce second-quarter marketings from the large 1996 levels, but marketings in the second half could then rise 5 to 7 percent from the low second-half 1996 levels. Poor wheat grazing could cause increased fall placements and more fed cattle marketings next spring. With relatively low grain stocks, any shock to the crop sector could move grain prices sharply higher. For all of 1997, beef production could be up about 2 percent, the same increase as in 1996, but the slaughter mix will shift to a larger proportion of fed cattle, and consequently, heavier average cattle slaughter weights. Fed cattle prices are expected to average in the mid-$60's in late fall through much of 1997 as fed beef supplies rise. Larger supplies and a very uncertain export market will hold down price gains, as will larger supplies of competing meats at relatively lower prices. Feeder steer prices will return to a premium over fed cattle prices, but not until next year's grain crop is safely in the ground and forage supplies are replenished. After languishing in the upper $50's to low $60's for much of 1996, prices for 750- to 800- pound feeder steers at Oklahoma City are likely to move into the mid- to upper $60's in second-half 1997. Similarly as cow slaughter has risen, Utility cow prices have declined to near $25 per cwt. Prices are likely to strengthen as cow slaughter declines seasonally this fall and winter, moving into the mid- to upper $30's next spring through second-half 1997. If world export demand for beef remains sluggish over the next couple of quarters as supplies increase, more production will have to be absorbed domestically, possibly along with larger beef imports as other countries seek alternative markets for their beef. Third-quarter U.S. beef exports were down 13 percent from a year ago, the first quarterly year-to-year decline since the fall of 1993. Tight U.S. supplies of higher quality beef and higher prices undoubtedly contributed to the decline. In addition, E. coli problems in Japan remain a concern and the dollar remains strong against Korea's won. Exports to Japan were down 20 percent from third-quarter 1995, while exports to the Republic of Korea were down 35 percent. Third-quarter beef imports were up 3 percent from a year earlier and up 5 percent from the second quarter. Imports from Australia were even with a year earlier, but up 41 percent from the spring quarter. However, imports from New Zealand were down 28 percent from a year earlier and down 35 percent from the spring quarter. Canadian exports to the U.S. of beef and slaughter cattle remained large as U.S. supplies of higher quality beef remain tight and prices were strong. Imports from Southern Hemisphere countries typically decline in the fourth quarter as their spring grazing season begins, and imports from Canada will slow as U.S. supplies rise in late fall through spring. U.S. per capita beef consumption will continue near 1995's 67.5 pounds in 1996 and 1997, and up half a pound from 1994. However, larger supplies of competing meats in second-half 1997 will hold down beef price gains. Retail prices for Choice beef averaged $2.80 a pound this past summer, but may rise to the mid-$2.80's this fall because of reduced Choice beef supplies in late summer-early fall. For the year, prices may average near $2.80 a pound, down about 4 cents from 1995. Prices in 1997 are likely to remain in the lower $2.80's for much of the year with a fairly flat pattern. While Choice and Prime beef supplies have been very tight, supplies of other beef have been sufficiently large to lower the October price for "All fresh beef" at retail to 7 cents below a year earlier. Weekly Hog Slaughter Rates Unchanged Hog slaughter rates in recent weeks have been relatively unchanged instead of the usual pattern of seasonal increases in October and November. As a result, fourth-quarter pork production is below earlier expectations and hog prices are stronger. Weekly hog slaughter in the fourth quarter is averaging about 6 percent below last year during October and November. With hog prices in the mid-$50's per cwt and feed prices down sharply from record highs last summer, producers' returns are favorable. Weekly sow slaughter rates have averaged about 13 percent below last year since late June. The continued low sow slaughter rates suggest that producers have reduced their culling rates and are breeding sows for another litter. U.S. imports of hogs from Canada boomed during the first three quarters of 1996 totaling 2.024 million head, compared with 1.187 a year earlier. Canadian producers are exporting hogs to the U.S. because of higher U.S. hog prices, favorable U.S.-Canadian exchange rates, and lower countervailing duties. Hog prices are relatively lower in Canada in part due to high fixed and labor costs in the Canadian pork processing industry, which force packers to bid prices lower. Also, increased U.S. slaughter capacity in the Corn Belt has increased packer demand at the same time hog inventories are declining in the region. Russian Market Drives Broiler Exports Broiler exports for 1996 are estimated at 4.6 billion pounds, up 18 percent from 1995. Exports are expected to rise to 5.1 billion in 1997. Through September, exports totaled 3.3 billion pounds, up 18 percent from the same period in 1995. The export growth has been caused chiefly by higher shipments to Russia and other FSU (former Soviet Union) countries. Through September, exports to Russia totaled 1.3 billion pounds, up 33 percent from 1995. Exports to other FSU countries totaled 151 million pounds. The FSU countries took 45 percent of all U.S. broiler exports. Shipments to China, South Africa, and Mexico have also shown strong growth. Direct exports to China so far in 1996 are more than double those of 1995. Exports to South Africa have risen over 50 percent through September. After falling in 1995, exports to Mexico are 6 percent higher in 1996 as its economy strengthens. The broiler production in 1997 is expected to total 28 billion pounds, as lower feed cost forecasts and the strength in wholesale broiler prices encourage larger production. Stronger prices relative to last year in the fourth quarter reflect increases in export and domestic demand. Turkey Exports To Increase The turkey exports in 1996 are expected to total 461 million pounds, up 32 percent from 1995. Exports in 1997 are expected to reach 510 million pounds. The pattern of turkey meat exports is beginning to look similar to broilers. Through September 1996, turkey exports to FSU countries and Poland accounted for 42 percent of the total. Also, Hong Kong is expected to pass Korea in 1996 to become our third largest turkey market. About 2 percent more turkeys are likely to be consumed in the fourth quarter of 1996 than a year ago. A 4-percent rise in fourth-quarter production will supply the expected increases in consumption and exports as well as build stocks. Per capita consumption is expected to be up slightly from a year ago in the fourth quarter and half a pound higher for the year. Early November retail special prices for turkeys look very similar to last year. Retail prices are expected to be nearly unchanged, despite wholesale prices that are expected to be 5 cents per pound lower. Retailers will likely be absorbing smaller losses on turkeys this year. Near record retail prices for pork may be supporting higher ham prices, contributing to the relative strength of retail turkey prices. Egg Exports Forecast at 260 Million Dozen The estimate for shell egg and egg product exports for 1996 is 260 million dozen, 24 percent higher than 1995. The forecast for 1997 is 280 million dozen. Increases in egg exports have come from higher shell egg and egg product shipments. Through September 1996, shipments of shell eggs totaled 84 million dozen, up 14 percent from the previous year, and egg product shipments were 95 million dozen, 61 percent higher. Strong egg prices and lower feed cost expectations are encouraging increased table egg production, which in 1997 is expected to total 5,575 million dozen. Wholesale egg prices have increased more than expected recently, with a rise of 20 cents per dozen leading up to Thanksgiving. Part of the strength in prices is certainly due to strong exports and strong breaker demand for producing egg products. Shell egg movement through retail outlets has also been strong and shell egg consumption is expected to increase in 1996 for the first time since 1979. Some of the increase in both egg product and shell egg consumption is probably due to the rising trend in eating breakfast out. Studies have indicated that takeout breakfasts increased 24 percent between 1989 and 1993 and the egg content of breakfasts eaten away from home is much higher than breakfasts eaten at home. Also, the American Egg Board reports that a 1995 survey showed 12 percent of food service operators increasing egg use at lunch and 6 percent increasing use at dinner. Dairy Product Prices Drop Early autumn declines in wholesale dairy prices were expected, as recovery in milk production began to overtake slowing sales. However, the October-November plunges in cheese and butter prices were considerably larger than expected. The most recent data show production and sales both responding to the summers record prices. However, these shifts were fairly modest and gradual--not the shocks normally associated with precipitous price changes. October milk production was only 0.6 percent below a year earlier, following dips of 0.8 percent in September and 1.0 percent in August. Milk per cow has struggled back to post fractional gains following its late spring collapse, while 1-percent declines in milk cow numbers persist. The recovery in milk per cow may have had market impacts beyond simply increased product availability. One of the factors leading to the very high summer prices probably was the fear that the weather and forage problems that created spring weakness might not allow milk per cow to recover as expected. Commercial use of American cheese slipped 1 percent in September, following a 6-percent jump in June-August. Sales of other varieties also were 1 percent lower, compared with 4-percent growth in June-August. Fluid milk sales in August and September probably were affected by an earlier Labor Day this year than last, but the August-September total was up almost 1 percent, very close to the increases posted throughout 1996. Disappearance of nonfat dry milk fell 13 percent in September, similar to the June-August drop. In recent months, nonfat dry milk prices have been too high to use much nonfat dry milk to produce cheese. In general, dairy product movement appeared to gradually slow in September, probably the result of slower consumer use and of decisions to start reducing pipeline holdings. Pipeline stocks probably swelled considerably in spring and summer as users and merchandisers sought to protect themselves from availability problems. Product movement in October probably dropped substantially, as buyers worked down pipeline holdings and minimized purchases on a falling market. Patterns in the butter market were considerably different because of the peculiar characteristics of milkfat production and use. Summer normally is the tightest season for milkfat because of low milkfat production, relatively little residual cream from fluid sales, and high ice cream use. Some easing normally occurs in September as production increases, ice cream sales drop, and fluid sales release much more cream. Markets then tighten again as the holiday season boosts demand for butter, fluid cream, and eggnog. The distinctive features of milkfat markets in 1996 were the large spring buildup (and subsequent drawdown) of pipeline stocks and the extraordinarily high fat content of milk. During the first 10 months of 1996, milkfat production was only 0.3 percent below a year earlier (compared with 1.3 percent for milk production) and was unchanged during July-October. The high fat test and strong fluid sales released very large amounts of cream during September. Changes in pipeline stocks were the dominant factor in the 13-percent increase in April-May butter sales and the 12 percent drop during June-August. Septembers 1-percent decline was rather indeterminant. How long current prices persist will depend on whether the current slower movement reflects a significant decline in final sales or a temporary response to falling prices. Economic growth is expected to continue to support demand, and the feed situation probably will limit growth in milk output. This implies that buyers will re-enter the market significantly and prices may recover modestly by early 1997. However, price increases may not occur until spring or summer if final sales have dropped more than the most recent data imply. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller(Dairy),LaVerne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,722 6,337 6,612 7,486 Net placements 2,227 1,928 2,216 2,474 Marketings 1,529 1,653 1,342 1,416 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 541,946 566,490 563,188 538,040 Chicks hatched (000)/2 654,221 688,591 656,696 651,791 Hatching egg layers/1 49,319 48,707 49,664 48,782 Pullets placed (000) 6,013 6,518 6,166 6,221 Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,864 4,527 5,753 6,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 32,035 36,141 31,929 32,332 Poults placed (000) 24,868 27,733 24,208 25,354 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 442 456 442 462 Table egg layers, (000)/1 238,839 244,923 245,290 247,668 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.3 72.2 71.8 71.7 Chicks hatched (000) 33,384 32,474 31,956 33,176 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,477 6,649 6,796 8,000 ........................... ESTIMATED RETURNS Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 59.72 61.69 66.31 68.74 Selling price 67.94 71.12 70.95 70.75 Net margin 8.22 9.43 4.64 2.01 Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 38.45 49.22 49.90 48.94 Selling price 39.93 54.53 55.10 54.25 Net margin 1.48 5.31 5.20 5.31 Broiler Wholesale cost 50.33 58.66 57.49 55.01 Wholesale price 61.08 64.01 62.64 64.50 Net margin 10.75 5.35 5.15 9.49 Turkey Wholesale cost 62.53 77.04 77.27 75.50 Wholesale price 77.50 67.18 69.52 70.00 Net margin 14.97 -9.86 -7.75 -5.50 Egg Wholesale cost 71.54 81.03 75.86 71.96 Wholesale price 92.09 94.32 89.21 102.00 Net margin 20.55 13.29 13.35 30.04 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 67.94 71.12 70.95 70.75 Nebraska Direct 67.51 70.77 70.85 71.95 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 29.85 31.91 32.79 28.50 Utility boning 29.18 30.19 29.13 25.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 63.88 65.72 64.69 67.75 600-650 lb. 64.06 62.50 63.63 65.25 750-800 lb. 67.63 63.70 64.19 67.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 55.78 57.50 56.72 57.00 700-750 lb. 63.78 59.48 58.84 62.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 39.69 54.87 55.50 54.40 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 39.93 54.53 55.10 54.25 Sows 6 Markets 33.16 48.95 50.00 53.80 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 28.03 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 72.00 84.40 82.58 80.00 Ewes, Good 30.83 41.45 38.36 41.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 81.33 91.80 88.79 88.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.20 3.39 2.81 2.62 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.34 4.66 4.71 4.75 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 204.10 276.36 248.61 253.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 85.10 95.70 97.60 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 80.10 92.10 93.00 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 108.88 105.93 109.10 117.50 Choice 1-3 700-850# 107.14 104.47 107.36 115.75 Select 1-3 700-850# 94.76 99.32 99.64 97.00 Cutter Cow 58.94 57.64 57.29 53.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 82.75 80.42 82.81 77.75 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 96.05 86.19 87.40 79.50 Hide & offal value 8.58 9.92 9.69 9.32 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 170.83 178.07 174.23 167.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 60.67 74.54 75.03 76.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 93.94 112.28 115.40 115.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 47.28 68.12 63.07 64.75 Hams, 20-26 lb. 64.55 82.65 79.00 73.75 Trimmings, 72% fresh 43.19 68.85 67.97 64.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 160.25 173.75 169.93 165.00 55-65 lb., Choice 160.25 177.25 169.83 165.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 61.08 64.01 62.64 64.50 Georgia dock 59.01 65.21 64.42 64.50 Northeast Breast, boneless 165.47 189.50 170.55 170.00 Breast, Ribs on 81.39 92.11 82.58 85.00 Legs, whole 57.89 59.14 59.25 60.00 Leg quarters 43.42 44.53 45.23 46.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 78.07 70.83 71.43 71.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 80.31 64.16 69.09 73.00 Drumsticks 27.45 33.91 35.71 35.00 Wings, full cut 31.10 39.37 41.02 44.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 92.09 94.32 89.21 102.00 New York 91.10 89.95 86.68 103.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 285.3 281.1 280.7 281.9 Beef - All Fresh 257.1 250.6 250.3 249.9 Ground Beef 137.1 139.1 136.0 137.1 Rib roast 491.2 492.5 504.2 509.5 T-bone steak 602.9 597.1 580.1 565.0 Pork 202.4 231.4 234.2 233.0 Bacon 211.7 268.2 280.9 272.1 Chops 328.7 350.2 350.5 347.4 Picnic 114.1 126.6 127.4 126.4 Chicken - Composite 145.9 152.3 158.0 152.9 Whole, fresh 93.0 99.0 100.6 102.1 Breast - bone in 200.1 205.3 213.5 201.4 Leg quarter 117.6 125.2 129.9 128.5 Turkey; whole frozen 105.0 108.6 106.5 107.4 Eggs, Grade A, Large 98.1 107.2 115.0 112.9 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 153.7 157.3 157.8 158.3 All food 149.4 153.7 154.6 155.4 All meat 137.0 141.8 143.0 143.6 Beef & veal 134.3 134.4 134.7 136.0 Pork 139.1 153.5 156.3 156.0 Poultry 146.1 154.5 155.8 157.1 Dairy Products 133.2 144.6 146.7 149.3 Fluid milk & cream 132.3 144.4 145.6 149.0 Manufactured products 134.7 145.5 148.5 150.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 31.2 22.7 18.1 20.5 Wholesale to retail 119.8 121.2 118.9 114.9 Farmers share (%) 47.0 49.0 51.0 52.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 35.7 32.2 34.9 34.4 Wholesale to retail 94.5 104.8 113.4 111.3 Farmers share (%) 36.0 41.0 37.0 37.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 81.8 81.6 88.4 87.2 Retail to consumer Turkey 20.1 32.1 30.3 28.9 Eggs 20.3 16.1 21.7 24.7 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Nov-95 Nov-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 23,117 23,441 1,935 2,179 1,927 Veal 282 335 31 34 29 Pork 16,304 15,643 1,408 1,591 1,420 Lamb 258 241 20 23 20 Total red meat 39,961 39,660 3,394 3,827 3,396 Broilers 23,002 24,254 2,089 2,400 2,050 Other chicken 458 455 41 45 35 Turkeys 4,732 5,053 440 530 460 Total poultry 28,193 29,762 2,571 2,975 2,545 Total meat & poultry 68,154 69,422 5,965 6,802 5,941 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 32,812 33,637 2,762 3,151 2,808 Steers 16,865 16,472 1,301 1,391 1,235 Heifers 9,607 9,879 829 971 843 Beef Cows 3,035 3,782 320 422 407 Dairy Cows 2,669 2,829 246 295 267 Bulls and stags 637 675 66 72 56 Calves 1,302 1,610 151 165 141 Sheep 4,188 3,828 327 377 327 Hogs 88,258 84,754 7,701 8,591 7,600 Barrows & gilts 83,972 80,871 7,380 8,251 7,290 Sows 3,465 3,241 267 285 250 Broilers 6,794,190 6,945,033 600,288 675,000 585,000 Turkeys 259,755 270,316 23,991 28,000 25,000 Nov-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 710 711 708 699 698 Calves 208 206 208 208 210 Sheep 62 61 61 63 63 Hogs 188 183 184 186 187 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 381.6 291.1 305.1 312.2 292.4 Pork 321.6 322.7 320.0 340.3 330.7 Bellies 13.5 28.5 19.0 12.7 16.2 Hams 94.6 78.9 83.4 94.2 80.2 Total chicken 520.5 623.5 616.1 587.5 595.4 Turkey 644.2 705.9 723.2 721.0 660.6 Frozen eggs 14.4 13.5 15.0 14.9 12.4 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Aug-96 Sep-96 Jan - Jan - Sep-95 Sep-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 59,808 49,761 518,916 404,087 New Zealand 40,585 19,753 499,714 429,911 Canada 55,568 50,342 322,714 430,526 Brazil 10,874 5,491 51,358 65,648 Argentina 12,491 18,834 127,448 119,459 Central America 9,624 10,230 112,357 80,902 Other 8,600 7,630 17,768 57,918 Total 197,550 162,041 1,650,275 1,588,450 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 78,167 67,354 735,386 806,548 Canada 21,895 21,757 227,629 222,514 Mexico 16,862 16,607 71,474 118,829 Korea, Rep. 14,229 16,052 187,707 152,151 Caribbean 835 654 8,661 8,625 Other 19,729 14,399 88,401 124,329 Total 151,717 136,823 1,319,258 1,432,995 Cattle Imports Mexico 4,783 3,594 1,283,135 234,110 Canada 136,421 123,436 878,711 1,230,189 Over 700 lbs. 129,892 115,526 829,275 1,124,007 500-700 lbs. 1,605 2,878 5,426 59,830 Total 141,204 127,034 2,161,895 1,464,340 Cattle Exports Mexico 12,052 11,610 10,005 76,123 Canada 2,203 2,264 48,153 26,270 Total 14,324 14,421 64,832 119,459 Lamb Imports Australia 1,903 1,718 13,142 19,059 New Zealand 2,865 1,884 16,959 19,129 Total 4,768 3,611 30,498 38,493 Mutton Imports 2,121 1,246 15,712 16,448 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 11/18/95 11/17/96 % Chg Canada 319,379 441,166 38.1 TRQ Countries 905,081 792,693 -12.4 Australia 433,679 352,283 -18.8 New Zealand 381,402 338,626 -11.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Aug-96 Sep-96 Jan - Jan - Sep-95 Sep-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 37,363 34,161 337,918 316,296 Denmark 10,582 10,621 105,882 94,196 Poland 786 971 8,354 7,563 Hungary 875 133 8,999 6,637 Netherlands 306 657 7,540 6,993 Other 2,478 2,218 25,054 21,884 Total 52,389 48,761 493,747 453,569 Pork Exports Japan 31,688 30,496 273,135 401,733 Canada 6,873 7,369 39,088 71,523 Mexico 2,794 4,856 43,113 35,559 Caribbean 810 791 7,749 7,344 Other 19,439 18,355 217,248 198,507 Total 61,605 61,866 580,333 714,667 Hog Imports Head Canada 270,760 244,463 1,187,890 2,024,491 Under 110 lb 77,967 66,375 498,546 584,885 Total 270,760 244,463 1,190,236 2,024,655 Hog Exports Total 1,808 1,076 9,571 43,451 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 23,718 23,651 187,264 186,917 Mexico 17,707 19,414 149,155 158,345 Hong Kong 92,095 73,941 732,849 740,453 Singapore 4,193 4,604 36,428 38,504 Canada 6,293 6,195 55,861 55,080 Former USSR 177,057 137,486 996,162 1,321,729 Total 428,142 341,158 2,747,445 3,253,127 Turkey Exports Mexico 11,485 13,497 92,235 106,344 S. Korea 3,057 1,213 28,241 17,643 Hong Kong 3,423 3,406 14,526 17,707 Total 50,744 32,248 232,023 312,775 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,661 9,343 74,050 84,235 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,978 10,970 10,640 10,915 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,050 7,969 7,957 7,952 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,364 1,377 1,337 1,373 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,716 12,653 12,273 12,643 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.40 15.80 16.30 16.00 Milk for fluid use 13.40 15.80 16.40 16.00 Manuf. grade milk 12.80 14.60 15.30 14.50 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.61 14.94 15.37 14.13 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 95.4 145.5 145.5 128.6 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 145.0 167.6 173.9 162.3 Barrels 138.7 160.5 168.1 148.2 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 108.6 130.9 131.9 131.6 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,563 1,744 1,713 1,550 Nonfat dry milk 2,317 1,863 1,850 1,918 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 24.7 30.9 26.4 20.9 Commercial American cheese 319.8 386.7 368.5 363.7 Other cheese 108.5 139.1 121.6 122.0 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 78.3 76.8 66.1 50.2 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,559 5,445 5,036 4,756 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,408 6,266 5,774 5,409 All Government (mf. basis) 184 21 24 17 All Government (ss. basis) 228 9 11 10 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 Nonfat dry milk 29.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 38.3 6.8 3.8 3.3 All products (ss basis 2/) 354.2 53.3 15.6 27.0 Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 80.2 72.1 73.2 80.9 American cheese 251.4 267.7 262.3 260.2 Other-than-American cheese 326.3 303.9 317.7 321.5 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 97.7 130.0 118.3 98.7 All products (mf basis 2/) 7428.7 7699.7 7580.4 7446.1 Nonfat dry milk 72.0 80.7 61.7 56.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb Butter 88.0 70.1 77.7 86.9 American cheese 271.2 268.7 283.7 270.8 Other-than-American cheese 362.9 341.4 365.3 360.0 Nonfat dry milk 78.1 82.7 69.2 71.7 All products (mf. basis) 12938.0 13038.0 13236.0 12731.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 240.4 257.9 302.1 298.0 Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,899 7,050 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.6 Production, million lbs. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,585 26,100 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,157 17,500 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,460 28,000 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,463 5,575 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,679 78,120 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,411 5,575 Milk 153,626 155,643 154,600 156,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 155,700 156,900 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 200 200 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.8 67.5 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.2 49.5 Broilers 69.8 69.7 71.7 74.3 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.4 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 210.7 213.2 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.6 242.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 64.6 62-67 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 60.5 62-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 31.2 33-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53.4 51-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 60.4 54-59 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66.3 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 85.8 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.6-14.7 13.3-14.2 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.4-13.5 12.3-13.3 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,921 2,225 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,134 2,050 Pork exports 531 770 909 1,064 Pork imports 743 664 614 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,607 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 461 510 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,929 6,969 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.7 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,391 6,250 Pork 4,388 4,103 4,141 4,525 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,594 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,411 1,400 Total Meat 18,848 18,973 18,770 19,088 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,323 1,354 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 39,111 39,706 37,778 37,900 Commercial use 37,856 39,934 39,000 38,900 Net removals 20 29 22 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.5 17.0 16.4 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 13.0 Broilers 17.8 18.4 18.0 17.5 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.5 6.2 Total Meat 52.0 52.3 52.4 54.0 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 59.3 61.1 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 67-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 63-65 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 30-30 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54-56 Broiler,12 City 56.20 61.10 64.20 59-61 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 69-71 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 86-88 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.70 14.6-14.9 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 15.20 12.7-12.9 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 452 544 450 475 Beef/veal imports 508 526 575 525 Pork exports 221 313 175 200 Pork imports 144 155 148 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,175 1,300 Turkey exports 96 93 134 138 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,005 7,038 7,069 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.4 5.5 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 5.3 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.7 6.6 6.5 Production, million lbs. Beef 6,300 6,500 6,800 Pork 4,200 4,250 4,325 Broilers 6,900 7,050 7,050 Turkeys 1,300 1,400 1,450 Total Meat 18,966 19,431 19,839 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 1,375 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 38,800 40,300 38,400 Commercial use 38,000 40,000 39,300 Net removals 100 100 100 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 16.7 16.8 17.5 Pork 11.9 11.8 12.4 Broilers 18.7 18.9 18.7 Turkeys 4.0 4.0 4.5 Total Meat 52.3 52.3 53.8 Eggs, number 60.0 59.7 61.1 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63-67 62-68 61-67 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 60-64 61-67 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 33-35 35-37 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 53-55 53-57 53-57 Broiler,12 City 55-57 56-60 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern 59-62 60-66 64-70 Eggs, New York 73-77 67-73 72-78 Milk, all at plant 13.1-13.8 12.9-13.9 13.0-14.0 Milk, M-W 12.2-12.8 11.9-12.9 12.2-13.2 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 450 575 580 Beef/veal imports 525 525 500 Pork exports 242 350 245 Pork imports 154 154 142 Broiler exports 1,150 1,225 1,275 Turkey exports 117 123 129 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 END_OF_FILE