LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY MARCH 25, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-27. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Red meat and poultry production is running above earlier expectations in first-quarter 1996. Cattle slaughter, primarily from feedlots, is higher than expected, while hog and broiler slaughter is in line with expectations. Dressed weights of hogs and broilers are above forecasts. Fed cattle prices are a little weaker, while hogs are higher than previously expected. Milk prices also are exceeding expectations. Higher Milk Prices To Keep Output Growing Strong dairy product movement at higher prices is expected to keep milk production growing slowly in 1996. Milk prices are expected to average about 50 to 70 cents above 1995's $12.78 per cwt, about offsetting the projected rise in concentrate costs. Expanded milk production and flat fluid sales are expected to generate slightly larger supplies of milk for manufacturing. Commercial use is expected to grow 1 to 2 percent, although retail prices are expected to rise 3 to 4 percent. Commercial stocks were fairly lean in early 1996, so stock building will be an important factor strengthening spring milk prices. Milk per cow is projected to rise about 2 percent in 1996. Low milk-feed price ratios will keep producers cautious about increases in concentrate feeding, and the number of cows injected with bovine somatotropin (bST) probably will not increase as much as earlier expected. In addition, recently revised data imply that 1995 milk per cow was not damaged by weather as much as thought earlier, correspondingly lowering the expected 1996 recovery. In 1996, cow numbers are projected to average about 1 percent below 1995. Milk cow numbers declined only fractionally in 1995, as higher feed costs did not significantly delay entry of new operations into production. Such expansion momentum is expected to persist in 1996, although the pace may slow. Similarly, the number of exiting farms is expected to remain relatively few. Lower cull cow prices and a large replacement herd will also help buttress milk cow numbers. Growth in cheese sales probably will absorb most of the rise in manufacturing supplies. Butter and nonfat dry milk output may not return to year-earlier levels until late 1996. Commercial stocks of milkfat and skim solids were fairly lean on February 1, even though market uncertainties may have made merchandisers relatively comfortable carrying larger winter stocks. Commercial stocks are projected to move above a year earlier by midyear. Pipeline holdings also may be larger this spring. Expected tightness in second-half markets will create a need for larger inventories. Stock building will be an important factor strengthening spring milk prices. However, the anticipated midyear holdings will help to limit second-half seasonal price rises, particularly if milk production recovers as expected. The influence of the export market and the possibility of large swings in pipeline holdings of milkfat might make butter stocks particularly volatile during the second half. First-Quarter Beef Production Near Record Large Beef production in first-quarter 1996 was up over 7 percent from a year earlier, and second only to the 1976 record of 6.492 billion pounds. The near record production occurred with 18 percent less slaughter than in 1976, as average dressed carcass weights have gained 110 pounds during the past 2 decades. Choice steer prices in the first quarter averaged about $8 under last year's $73.11 per cwt. Lower fed cattle prices and sharply higher feed grain prices caused prices for 750- to 800-pound feeder cattle prices to average more than $14 below last year's $72.62 per cwt. Utility cow prices also declined, but averaged only about $7 per cwt under a year earlier. First-half price lows likely are over, but these lows may be tested again in late summer as production increases seasonally. Normal crop and pasture development this spring and summer will be critical and the major determinants of production levels later this summer and fall. Favorable forage conditions and lower grain prices could hold the herd to near last years level, while poor weather conditions would lead to increased cow slaughter and herd liquidation. Large slaughter cattle imports from Canada and feeder cattle imports from Mexico contributed to the 3.4 percent increase in U.S. beef production in 1995 compared to a year earlier. Imports from Canada are expected to remain large in 1996 due to Canadas expanding cattle inventory, but increased Canadian slaughter capacity may lead to a modest decline in U.S. imports. Sharply reduced cattle inventories in Mexico and modest improvement in Mexicos economy and pasture conditions are sharply lowering feeder cattle exports. Fourth-quarter 1995 exports began to move below a year earlier, and APHIS data through mid-March suggest exports to the U.S. may be down more than 60 percent from a year earlier. Apparently Mexico is importing larger numbers of cattle from the U.S. for immediate slaughter. The swing in trade with Mexico should help slow supply increases in the U.S. later this year and in 1997, particularly if beef exports to Mexico are also increasing. Beef exports in 1995 were record large and up 13 percent from a year earlier, while beef imports fell 11 percent. In 1996, exports are expected to rise about 16 percent as supplies of high quality grain fed beef in competing countries tighten. U.S. supplies are projected to reach record levels and wholesale prices could be the lowest in nearly a decade. Beef already is attractively priced in Japan, and a decline in the tariff on imported beef from 50 percent to 46.2 percent on April 1 should increase beef movement. Larger U.S. supplies of leaner processing beef are expected to hold beef imports near to slightly below the low levels of 1995. However, world supplies of lower quality processing beef are already becoming burdensome and prices have fallen. If prices move even lower, additional product could be priced into the domestic market. Hog Price Gains May Be Linked to Trade Live hog prices and pork cutout values moved several dollars higher during March at the same time weekly slaughter volume moved closer to a year earlier. Stronger export sales may be fueling packer demand for hogs and driving the current price rally. Trade statistics will be available in about 2 months to verify this situation. First-quarter pork supplies are projected down about 1.5 percent from 1995, but cash hog prices will average nearly 15 percent above a year earlier. The price increase is difficult to explain given estimated per capita supplies for the quarter of 12.8 pounds ( retail weight). This number is based on projected production, freezer stock changes and net trade. Using historical supply-price relationships to forecast first-quarter 1996 prices, current price levels are more closely associated with per capita supplies, which are nearly half a pound lower. USDA currently projects first-quarter 1996 pork exports at 175 million pounds, carcass weight basis. Included in this projection are higher exports to Japan than a year earlier. However, export projections still may be too low if Japanese traders are frontloading shipments to take advantage of lower import prices after April 1( the beginning of the Japans fiscal year) when the Safeguard mechanism expires and the gate price drops 24 percent. The Safeguard mechanism was imposed on November 1, 1995, because April-September 1995 pork imports were 125 percent of average pork imports for the same period in Japan fiscal years 1993 through 1995. Under the terms of the Uruguay Agreement, the gate price may be raised to protect Japanese pork producers when cumulative import quantities during a quarter exceed 119 percent of the average import quantities for the same period in the previous three years. This action may be taken any time during the first 3 quarters of the Japanese fiscal year. Japanese traders are expected to import the majority of their frozen pork needs for the Japanese fiscal year 1996 by the end of the April-June quarter. These large import volumes could cause the Safeguard mechanism to be re-imposed by late summer. The prospect of facing higher minimum import prices during the last three quarters of JFY 1996 could generate another Safeguard situation, and limit U.S. export growth in Japan. Pork exports to Japan are projected to decline about 2 percent from 1995. The composite retail pork price advanced 8 cents per pound in February, primarily because of a 32-cent increase in the price of bone-in hams. February surveys of retail stores evidently picked up a larger proportion of spiral-cut hams in the meat case which, because of their higher processing cost, caused the price index to increase. If ham prices continue at the higher level, first-quarter retail pork prices may average around $2.05 per pound. The farm-retail price spread for pork was unchanged in February in spite of the higher ham prices. Gains in the wholesale-retail spread were offset by stronger live hog prices, which forced the live-wholesale spread to narrow. Broiler Exports To Russia in Question After growing rapidly from 32 million pounds in 1992 to 1.5 billion pounds in 1995, broiler exports to Russia may suffer a setback in 1996. Late in 1995, the Russian government began voicing concerns about a number of health-related issues involving imported U.S. broiler products. Although discussions are continuing, the Russian government stopped issuing import licenses in mid-February and has stated that import licenses on shipments arriving after March 16 will not be honored. Broiler exports to Russia consist primarily of frozen leg quarters. Growing demand for leg quarters in Russia has caused domestic leg quarter prices to increase substantially. In 1992, leg quarter prices averaged 24.5 cents a pound, but by 1995 they had risen to 36.5 cents. Leg quarter prices remained strong through January 1996, averaging 43.2 cents a pound. However, with indications that the Russian government would stop issuing import licenses, leg quarter prices began to fall. During the first half of March prices had declined to an average 32.3 cents a pound. Broiler exports to Russia accounted for 38 percent of total U.S. broiler exports in 1995, and have been a primary factor in the recent growth in broiler shipments. As recently as 1992, broiler exports to Russia were only 2 percent of total exports. By 1995, exports to Russia represented about 6 percent of U.S. production. Direct export figures likely understate total shipments to the Russian market. Russia also may be taking product shipped to nearby countries like Estonia, which imported almost 125 million pounds in 1995. Other markets are expected to absorb some of the lost sales to Russia, but large volume buyers may be hard to find if exports are stopped for an extended period. However, the recent price decline for leg quarters has made this product more competitive on world markets. Likely candidates for increased exports include countries in the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Asia. Leg quarter prices likely would be even weaker if large quantities were not moving into storage for what is probably being viewed as short-term holding until it can be exported. First-quarter stocks are estimated to be 30-40 percent above last year. Additional sales to other export markets may also be supporting prices. Wholesale whole broiler prices and breast meat prices are expected to be above 1995 in March. Broiler production expansion continues strong, although net returns are weaker than in recent months. Pullet chick hatch for placement in broiler-type hatchery supply flocks was down in December and January, suggesting potentially smaller increases in the hatchery supply flock this fall. However, strong production increases still are possible this year due to the larger hatchery supply flock for broiler-type eggs. March production will increase, on a weekly basis, based on about 4 percent more chicks placed in January and weight increases of about 2 percent per bird. Whole Turkey Prices Remain Strong Whole turkey prices are holding above last year, although movement is light. Dark meat prices are weaker than a year ago, indicating continued slow growth in the export market. With feed costs 39 percent above a year ago, producers' returns are being squeezed. Continued production increases are expected through early summer as poult placements during January and February were higher than 1995. March production is increasing compared to a year earlier, on a weekly basis, with 1-2 percent fewer birds expected to be available for slaughter. However, weight per bird is 2-3 percent greater. Egg Prices Strong Approaching Easter New York large wholesale egg prices were about 40 percent higher in March than a year earlier. Additional price gains are not expected leading up to Easter, but higher prices have allowed producers to remain profitable while facing 45 percent higher feed costs. Higher prices also are limiting the number of eggs that are being processed by breakers. Only 1 percent more eggs were broken during January, which had one additional processing day in 1996. February showed a continuation of lower quantities of eggs broken on a weekly basis. Cold storage stocks of frozen eggs were about 20 percent below last year on February 1. Breakers probably will buy eggs aggressively later in the year when egg production is expected to increase and wholesale prices decline. Weekly trade reports between the U.S. and Canada indicate that egg product marketers are importing product from Canada to make up for the lower production by domestic breakers during the first 2 months of 1996. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,119 8,685 8,667 8,304 Net placements 1,480 1,394 1,323 1,389 Marketings 1,372 1,412 1,686 1,541 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 536,954 571,143 570,863 566,333 Chicks hatched (000)/2 598,962 689,596 686,359 646,085 Hatching egg layers/1 49,645 50,487 50,538 50,847 Pullets placed (000) 5,481 6,023 5,538 5,916 Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,995 4,155 5,684 5,200 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 35,095 31,697 35,760 36,668 Poults placed (000) 25,943 25,130 27,550 27,863 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 405 463 453 421 Table egg layers, (000)/1 245,778 245,301 246,703 245,714 Table eggs/100 layers/1 70.0 73.6 72.2 70.1 Chicks hatched (000) 31,693 30,012 31,547 34,652 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,290 7,840 8,456 8,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 66.96 61.70 63.00 64.12 Selling price 70.64 64.63 63.00 62.25 Net margin 3.68 2.93 -1.87 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.35 39.18 39.90 40.76 Selling price 38.13 43.10 46.51 48.10 Net margin 1.78 3.92 6.61 7.34 Broiler Wholesale cost 47.67 52.48 53.58 54.41 Wholesale price 52.32 59.00 55.31 54.50 Net margin 4.65 6.52 1.73 0.09 Turkey Wholesale cost 59.16 66.00 67.21 69.17 Wholesale price 59.47 64.11 64.45 65.00 Net margin 0.31 -1.89 -2.76 -4.17 Egg Wholesale cost 64.90 74.46 75.85 76.68 Wholesale price 72.64 91.76 89.18 95.00 Net margin 7.74 17.30 13.33 18.32 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 70.64 64.63 63.00 62.25 Nebraska Direct 70.23 63.90 62.81 62.50 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 41.35 36.44 37.56 36.00 Utility boning 39.32 31.94 33.06 32.75 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 84.88 61.81 62.31 63.10 600-650 lb. 76.31 59.75 58.94 58.60 750-800 lb. 68.84 60.13 58.41 56.35 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 77.94 53.91 54.19 53.45 700-750 lb. 65.44 55.78 54.09 52.45 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 37.86 41.67 45.57 46.82 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 38.13 43.10 46.51 48.10 Sows 6 Markets 33.02 32.26 34.55 30.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 39.60 30.25 35.80 41.30 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 73.75 74.44 85.63 83.75 Ewes, Good 31.25 40.50 41.88 40.80 Feeder lambs, Choice 80.06 87.69 95.63 84.25 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES ERR Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.36 3.41 3.71 3.89 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.87 5.40 5.59 5.45 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 156.90 232.00 228.29 225.50 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 89.00 87.80 88.20 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 83.40 81.70 81.20 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Mar-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 107.87 101.71 98.86 96.40 Choice 1-3 700-850# 107.35 99.40 97.87 95.65 Select 1-3 700-850# 105.40 95.77 93.90 93.95 Cutter Cow 74.94 61.72 61.48 60.25 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 101.37 89.23 83.75 80.48 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 100.45 90.42 87.13 83.00 Hide & offal value 9.42 8.17 8.05 8.00 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 165.35 163.26 160.88 185.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 54.55 60.05 64.39 68.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 95.30 110.00 116.43 119.75 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 36.30 52.33 56.33 63.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 51.60 52.18 56.84 61.25 Trimmings, 72% fresh 35.41 40.86 41.05 44.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 156.25 165.65 175.00 176.25 55-65 lb., Choice 154.25 157.25 171.25 176.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 52.32 59.00 55.31 54.50 Georgia dock 51.20 57.62 55.59 54.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 155.64 157.29 152.90 161.00 Breast, Ribs on 78.22 77.44 77.93 81.00 Legs, whole 50.77 59.08 56.79 50.00 Leg quarters 32.88 43.26 38.97 33.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 60.09 64.33 64.70 65.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 60.04 64.60 64.65 65.00 Drumsticks 28.69 26.95 26.00 26.00 Wings, full cut 32.52 31.45 32.43 32.50 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 72.64 91.76 89.18 95.00 New York 66.20 91.26 85.70 92.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 284.3 284.1 281.5 278.8 Beef - All Fresh 261.7 260.0 258.7 256.4 Ground Beef 142.6 140.3 135.0 140.3 Rib roast 499.1 480.5 503.9 504.0 T-bone steak 583.8 591.8 567.9 556.1 Pork 189.9 202.2 201.1 208.2 Bacon 193.0 216.6 213.8 220.3 Chops 314.4 329.2 334.7 326.8 Picnic 110.2 117.4 118.8 117.5 Chicken - Composite 141.2 144.9 146.3 149.3 Whole, fresh 89.3 93.9 94.1 94.0 Breast - bone in 194.3 195.3 196.7 202.8 Leg quarter 114.6 120.1 121.8 123.2 Turkey; whole frozen 99.1 98.7 103.5 104.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 86.3 116.0 115.5 109.1 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 150.9 153.5 154.4 154.9 All food 147.4 149.9 151.0 150.8 All meat 134.9 137.2 137.6 137.5 Beef & veal 136.6 134.6 135.0 134.8 Pork 131.8 139.6 139.4 140.0 Poultry 141.4 146.3 148.0 149.4 Dairy Products 132.1 135.0 136.3 137.2 Fluid milk & cream 131.9 134.5 136.8 137.3 Manufactured products 132.9 136.2 136.5 137.7 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 19.1 24.3 22.8 21.1 Wholesale to retail 113.9 121.3 125.3 126.6 Farmers share (%) 53.0 49.0 47.0 47.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 31.1 34.7 35.0 31.6 Wholesale to retail 96.9 97.8 99.0 102.5 Farmers share (%) 33.0 34.0 33.0 36.0 Poultry and eggs Retail to consumer Broilers 82.4 82.9 82.9 87.9 Turkey 32.0 21.2 30.4 31.3 Eggs 16.5 22.9 24.7 20.9 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Mar-95 Mar-96 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 5,888 6,335 2,220 2,048 2,067 Veal 78 89 30 30 29 Pork 4,488 4,417 1,550 1,417 1,450 Lamb 78 77 23 24 30 Total red meat 10,532 10,918 3,823 3,519 3,576 Broilers 6,147 6,531 2,281 2,150 2,100 Other chicken 128 124 44 42 38 Turkeys 1,196 1,231 416 415 400 Total poultry 7,470 7,886 2,741 2,607 2,538 Total meat & poultry 18,002 18,804 6,564 6,126 6,114 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 8,418 8,988 3,140 2,926 2,922 Steers 4,218 4,442 1,547 1,429 1,464 Heifers 2,444 2,666 916 877 871 Beef Cows 779 919 339 298 281 Dairy Cows 797 804 283 270 252 Bulls and stags 163 163 54 52 56 Calves 351 426 144 143 140 Sheep 1,229 1,177 363 364 450 Hogs 24,224 23,737 8,291 7,661 7,785 Barrows & gilts 23,041 22,636 7,921 7,305 7,410 Sows 946 922 311 298 313 Broilers 1,819,013 1,882,457 642,457 625,000 615,000 Turkeys 63,867 63,557 21,557 21,000 21,000 Mar-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 704 714 715 707 715 Calves 227 208 214 212 216 Sheep 65 63 63 66 66 Hogs 186 188 188 186 187 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 407.7 381.4 389.6 333.9 328.6 Pork 395.1 347.1 334.8 382.2 383.9 Bellies 64.2 37.1 47.6 46.5 46.1 Hams 52.4 60.9 38.3 59.5 54.3 Total chicken 465.2 512.6 567.3 668.5 652.4 Turkey 359.5 270.1 271.3 339.2 423.4 Frozen eggs 18.3 12.5 13.8 15.6 16.4 /* Estimates ------------------------------------------------------------------- January 1996 trade will be released on March 29, 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan - Jan - Dec-94 Dec-95 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 44,362 47,922 876,360 670,440 New Zealand 21,628 35,944 527,877 579,335 Canada 41,984 37,866 460,224 445,614 Brazil 5,733 5,084 125,782 67,509 Argentina 12,405 12,037 141,145 172,220 Central America 9,531 13,574 206,375 144,511 Other 1,969 2,485 30,608 23,843 Total 137,611 154,912 2,368,372 2,103,472 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 101,070 74,485 832,429 1,004,452 Canada 29,165 26,727 285,716 311,982 Mexico 5,428 8,292 223,022 92,302 Korea, Rep. 28,720 31,989 177,286 272,176 Caribbean 1,300 1,275 11,400 12,360 Other 12,583 13,428 80,946 127,541 Total 178,264 156,196 1,610,800 1,820,813 Cattle Imports Mexico 171,375 113,156 1,072,126 1,653,408 Canada 91,823 67,397 1,010,299 1,132,691 Over 700 lbs. 85,793 60,021 943,579 1,063,720 500-700 lbs. 3,001 3,891 13,649 14,641 Total 263,289 180,553 2,082,504 2,786,245 Cattle Exports Mexico 790 1,821 128,636 14,641 Canada 5,422 5,680 92,365 67,442 Total 7,994 8,466 230,791 94,548 Lamb Imports Australia 2,961 2,997 22,762 21,568 New Zealand 1,142 1,203 15,911 21,106 Total 4,179 4,264 38,683 43,284 Mutton Imports 1,307 2,017 10,723 20,257 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 3/19/95 3/17/96 % Chg Canada 65,574 94,058 14343.8% TRQ Countries /* 112,406 179,228 15944.7% Australia 75,653 NA New Zealand 77,209 NA /* 1996 Includes Uruguay ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan - Jan - Dec-94 Dec-95 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 36,587 35,805 421,768 453,925 Denmark 13,653 12,258 244,545 144,516 Poland 1,666 740 11,581 11,984 Hungary 504 478 18,210 10,608 Netherlands 910 1,161 16,769 10,671 Other 2,188 2,340 30,896 32,258 Total 55,507 52,782 743,769 663,963 Pork Exports Japan 28,067 22,881 239,876 364,676 Canada 7,574 6,077 52,902 57,771 Mexico 5,106 6,360 150,252 59,855 Caribbean 1,223 1,281 8,351 11,120 Other 18,963 23,813 80,607 277,286 Total 60,933 60,411 531,988 770,707 Hog Imports Head Canada 162,509 180,421 914,755 1,747,160 Under 110 lb 50,879 42,253 401,981 651,096 Total 162,510 181,029 921,274 1,750,138 Hog Exports Total 2,635 3,217 136,148 16,059 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 21,137 18,550 254,490 252,573 Mexico 16,595 17,312 220,937 203,634 Hong Kong 82,123 75,003 714,378 973,128 Singapore 4,226 7,242 64,568 52,362 Canada 6,269 5,805 78,935 75,988 Former USSR 132,033 202,099 818,489 1,484,190 Total 335,584 419,464 2,875,509 3,894,072 Turkey Exports Mexico 15,486 15,499 164,098 131,381 S. Korea 2,065 1,736 24,054 35,101 Hong Kong 1,701 649 6,913 19,320 Total 34,813 38,620 280,424 348,012 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 12,907 9,158 110,415 109,004 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Feb-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,423 11,088 11,285 10,762 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,050 8,034 8,026 8,012 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,295 1,380 1,406 1,343 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,142 12,844 13,146 12,537 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.60 13.90 14.00 13.80 Milk for fluid use 12.60 14.00 14.00 13.90 Manuf. grade milk 11.60 13.00 12.70 12.60 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.79 12.91 12.73 12.59 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 65.5 74.4 75.4 66.4 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 130.4 144.6 139.3 139.3 Barrels 126.9 135.4 133.5 134.0 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 107.1 117.6 114.9 110.8 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,850 2,563 2,404 2,113 Nonfat dry milk 1,957 2,238 2,229 2,138 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 25.4 11.3 15.8 21.8 Commercial American cheese 317.7 297.6 306.6 318.2 Other cheese 131.5 95.7 105.3 119.2 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 114.8 50.3 70.6 71.7 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,708 3,859 4,116 4,449 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,021 4,631 5,055 5,313 All Government (mf. basis) 1,458 105 69 83 All Government (ss. basis) 321 189 172 165 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nonfat dry milk 45.8 6.2 2.2 1.7 All products (mf basis 2/) 125.6 2.6 1.3 1.2 All products (ss basis 2/) 585.0 74.1 26.6 20.4 Jan-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 132.0 91.5 111.2 125.4 American cheese 262.0 248.8 278.2 275.4 Other-than-American cheese 303.6 337.7 331.4 312.6 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 81.6 81.5 68.3 77.7 All products (mf basis 2/) 8015.8 7181.0 7683.4 7949.3 Nonfat dry milk 106.7 71.6 99.4 98.9 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 96.5 97.7 107.0 NA American cheese 253.7 264.5 270.7 NA Other-than-American cheese 319.4 383.7 357.1 NA Nonfat dry milk 65.9 84.6 73.2 NA All products (mf. basis) 12202.0 12869.0 12782.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 222.5 316.6 342.6 NA 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert 2/ Milk equivalent Annual Forecasts 1993 1994 1995 1996 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 5,135 5,344 5,520 5,919 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 6.8 5.8 5.6 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 3.0 5.1 5.5 4.8 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.7 Production, million lb. Beef 22,942 24,278 25,041 25,850 Pork 17,030 17,658 17,812 18,350 Broilers 22,178 23,847 25,022 26,650 Turkeys 4,848 4,992 5,128 5,350 Total Red Meat & Poultry 68,107 71,796 73,999 77,172 Eggs, mil doz. 5,156 5,266 5,244 5,350 Milk 150,582 153,626 155,643 160,000 Commercial use (mf basis) 144,976 150,196 155,126 157,500 Net removals (mf basis) 6,654 4,812 2,137 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 65.1 67.0 67.3 68.0 Pork 52.3 53.1 52.4 53.1 Broilers 68.4 69.8 69.7 73.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.4 Total Red Meat & Poultry 207.6 211.5 211.1 217.0 Eggs, number 236.2 238.7 234.7 238.5 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 76.36 68.84 66.74 62-66 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 86.46 77.72 68.03 62-66 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 47.52 42.50 36.05 33-35 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 46.10 40.06 42.85 39-41 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.20 55.69 57.13 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62.60 65.65 66.85 63-67 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.50 67.25 72.85 70-75 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.80 13.03 12.77 12.9-13.7 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.80 12.01 11.83 11.9-12.7 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,275 1,611 1,821 2,120 Beef & veal imports 2,401 2,368 2,104 2,080 Pork exports 435 531 770 850 Pork imports 740 743 664 665 Broiler exports 1,966 2,875 3,895 4,070 Turkey exports 212 281 348 367 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'94 QII'94 QIII'94 QIV'94 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,261 5,314 5,367 5,434 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.4 5.2 4.5 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 5,745 6,042 6,377 6,114 Pork 4,181 4,239 4,326 4,912 Broilers 5,667 5,984 6,167 6,029 Turkeys 1,091 1,254 1,337 1,310 Total Meat 16,964 17,770 18,433 18,629 Eggs, mil doz. 1,289 1,293 1,319 1,366 Milk (mf basis) 37,560 39,916 38,217 37,933 Commercial use 35,235 37,652 39,483 37,826 Net removals 2,360 1,855 (242) 839 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 16.9 17.4 16.5 Pork 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.5 Broilers 17.1 17.6 18.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.5 3.8 4.4 6.1 Total Meat 50.4 52.1 54.1 54.9 Eggs, number 58.8 58.6 59.6 61.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 73.10 68.79 65.83 67.63 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 82.14 77.63 76.37 74.74 Brk Cows,S. Falls 44.40 46.16 42.77 36.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45.80 42.90 40.50 31.03 Broiler,12 City 55.05 60.00 55.90 51.80 Turkeys, Eastern 60.10 63.10 66.90 72.50 Eggs, New York 71.50 63.30 67.00 67.20 Milk, all at plant 13.57 13.03 12.50 13.03 Milk, M-W 12.53 11.92 11.73 11.84 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 359 391 416 445 Beef/veal imports 681 602 586 499 Pork exports 104 115 131 181 Pork imports 205 206 168 164 Broiler exports 571 698 694 912 Turkey exports 60 67 61 93 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996 QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,470 5,488 5,545 5,576 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,877 6,312 6,602 6,250 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,183 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,346 Total Meat 17,983 18,604 18,533 18,879 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,540 39,484 39,202 38,900 Net removals 1,046 752 243 96 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.3 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.0 52.6 54.0 Eggs, number 59.2 58.1 57.9 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 32.50 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.63 12.30 12.43 13.73 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 5,716 5,847 5,982 6,131 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,325 6,425 6,700 6,400 Pork 4,425 4,450 4,525 4,950 Broilers 6,550 6,650 6,750 6,700 Turkeys 1,225 1,325 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,794 19,089 19,592 19,697 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,800 41,400 39,600 39,200 Commercial use 38,700 40,000 39,500 39,300 Net removals 200 200 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.8 17.1 17.6 16.5 Pork 12.8 12.7 13.2 14.4 Broilers 17.9 18.8 18.9 18.3 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.5 6.4 Total Meat 52.1 53.3 55.1 56.5 Eggs, number 59.3 59.1 59.1 61.0 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63-64 62-66 60-64 62-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 59-60 63-67 62-68 62-68 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32-33 35-37 34-36 33-35 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 44-45 39-41 38-42 35-37 Broiler,12 City 55-56 53-57 53-57 49-53 Turkeys, Eastern 64-65 62-66 62-68 65-71 Eggs, New York 87-90 68-72 62-68 64-70 Milk, all at plant 13.5-14.0 12.5-13.2 12.2-13.2 13.3-14.4 Milk, M-W 12.3-12.6 11.3-12.1 11.7-12.7 12.4-13.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 475 555 550 500 Pork exports 175 250 225 200 Pork imports 170 167 158 170 Broiler exports 1,040 900 1,035 1,095 Turkey exports 71 84 92 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, March 1996 END-END-END