LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY April 16, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ========================================================================== LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-40. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ========================================================================== With feed costs expected to continue to be below 1996 for the rest of 1997 and livestock and poultry prices holding at or slightly below last year's levels, producers' net returns should increase slightly. Feed costs are reflected primarily in the prices of corn and soybean meal. In March, corn prices were about 25 percent lower than in 1996, while soybean meal prices were about 25 percent higher. Since more corn than soybean meal is used in rations, the net effect is lower feed costs. Exports of pork and poultry remain strong, but beef exports are sluggish due to health concerns. The forecast for U.S. foreign trade of red meats and poultry products assumes that there is a continued flow of products to the major markets around the world. Any cut off or partial restriction of trade for health, inspection, or tariff reasons to major markets would greatly affect U.S. red meat and poultry trade and the domestic market. In recent years, exports as a percentage of production has risen, thus, any major changes in trade would have repercussions in the domestic markets. Foot and mouth disease in Taiwan has resulted in a sharp drop in Asian pork supplies and has added another uncertainty to the markets. In addition, due to a negotiation impasse on the issue of inspection equivalency, there is considerable uncertainty about trade between the United States and the European Union (EU). Egg Production Increasing Table egg production in 1997 is expected to be 2-3 percent higher than in 1996. The table egg laying flock is expected to remain nearly 2 percent larger throughout the year, and slight increases in productivity are expected. Growth in egg production have not been uniform across the country. In 1996, California and Ohio each produced about 6.5 billion eggs to lead national production. Indiana and Pennsylvania remained in the top five producing States, ranked third and fourth respectively, and Iowa was fifth after boosting production with new facilities opening to supply the egg products industry. Also, some California egg marketers made investments in Iowa to secure eggs for the California market as a replacement for production there. During the 1990's total egg consumption has fluctuated between 235 and 239 eggs per person, with the lowest consumption in 1991. Slower declines in shell egg consumption and growth in egg product consumption has helped to stabilize egg consumption. Increased generic promotion of eggs, availability of specialty eggs (omega-3 fatty acid enhanced, organic, and other branded eggs), decreased consumer sensitivity to dietary cholesterol, and growth in the fast food breakfast market, are probably factors in changing consumption patterns. Increases in egg production are expected to continue, and egg consumption is projected to be about 240 eggs per person in 1997. Last year shell egg consumption did not decline, it remained at 175 and is projected to hold constant in 1997. Stronger export sales and higher shell egg prices since mid-1995, have slowed the growth in egg product consumption. Stronger growth in consumption is projected for 1997 with 65 eggs expected to be consumed in the product form. Lower egg prices will make eggs more attractive to egg processors. Broiler Production Increases To Accelerate Broiler production during the first quarter of 1997 increased about 1 percent. High feed costs during 1996 resulted in lower net returns to broiler producers, compared with the last 3 years, and probably contributed to slower growth in the hatchery supply flock during 1996. Uncertainty over feed crop production through late 1996 and export market disruptions have continued to keep expansion plans conservative. There have been isolated reports that the parent breeding stock of the heavier breeds of birds that are being produced currently do not have the ability to produce as many eggs as the lighter birds of earlier years. This has not been reflected in the eggs per hen within a given production period and probably is not significantly slowing broiler production growth. The prospect of higher interest rates, uncertain export markets, and fewer investment incentives from State and local governments in production areas are probably more important factors. Increases in chick placements, for the 15 survey States as reported in the Broiler Hatchery report, has increased to over 3 percent for all but 1 week since mid-February. Previous increases during 1997 were in the 1 to 2 percent range. This indicates that meat production should be increasing more rapidly during the second quarter at about 5 percent. Production growth during the second half of the year is expected to increase to 6-7 percent. For the year, meat production is expected to increase about 5 percent, similar to the size of production increases in 1995 and 1996. Turkey Production Increasing Turkey production increased about 1 percent during the first quarter of 1997. Weekly slaughter increases have been higher than 1 percent. With 1 less day in February this year, the quarterly figures do not show as great an increase. Net returns for turkey producers are expected to remain negative for the year in 1997. Positive returns during the fourth quarter will offset some of the earlier losses and provide smaller annual losses than last year. These negative net returns are expected to keep production increases very conservative. The January Turkeys report stated the producer intentions for 2 percent more turkeys raised during 1997. Total meat production is forecast to increase 2-3 percent as slightly heavier weights per bird are expected. Decreases in bird numbers for 1997 were indicated for leading production States North Carolina and California. A disease problem (PEMS or spiking mortality) has been causing production problems in some areas of North Carolina and may result in some production farms ceasing turkey growing. Minnesota is expected to grow the same number of birds as last year, while Arkansas, Missouri, Virginia, and Indiana are expected to increase turkey production. Broiler Export Growth To Slow Broiler export growth is expected to slow to approximately 8 percent in 1997 after 8 years of double digit expansion. Continued growth is forecast for the key markets of Russia and Hong Kong/China. However, relatively slow growth in 1997 U.S. broiler production, lower beef supplies, and strong pork export demand are expected to support U.S. prices. Total broiler export volume is forecast at 4.8 billion pounds, accounting for 17 percent of domestic production. Exports to Japan are expected to grow, especially with the Japanese banning of pork imports from Taiwan. But U.S. broiler products face increasing competition in the Japanese market, especially from Chinese-processed poultry products. The transfer of Hong Kong from British to Chinese rule is not anticipated to have any immediate effect on poultry imports. However, over time direct exports from the United States to China are expected to climb as per capita disposable incomes expand, additional warehouse capacity is added at other Chinese ports, and border controls are tightened. The additional storage and improved inspections will gradually lessen the need and economic incentive to tranship products, especially those going to northern China through Hong Kong. In 1996, exports to Hong Kong fell 1 percent, but direct shipments to China rose over 90 percent. Broiler exports to Russia reached 1.9 billion pounds in 1996, up 27 percent from the previous year. While 1997 exports are expected to again expand, the growth is forecast to be lower as imports begin to level off somewhat after rising 130 percent between 1994 and 1996. Russia has also begun a program to enforce the collection of import duties on poultry products. So far, this program does not seem to have affected broiler imports, as January shipments to Russia totaled 135 million pounds, 42 percent above the previous year. However, February exports to Russia are expected to be considerably below last year's record monthly shipment of 262 million pounds. The forecast of U.S. broiler exports to Russia does not include transhipments through other countries. For example, exports to Latvia totaled 149 million pounds in 1996. Most of this was transhipped to Russia as Lativa's population is only several million people. Turkey Exports To Expand in 1997 Exports of turkey and turkey products are forecast to reach 466 million pounds in 1997, about 6 percent above 1996. After rising 38 and 26 percent in the last 2 years, exports to Russia are expected to begin to level off, and the growth in the Mexican market in 1997 is forecast to moderate. Lower grain prices are expected to help the Mexican poultry industry increase production. Monthly turkey exports to Russia ranged from a low of 2.2 million pounds to a high of 23.9 million pounds in 1996. These large swings in month-to-month imports highlight the uncertainty of the 1997 forecast for U.S. turkey exports to Russia. However, with Russia's beef, pork, and poultry production all expected to be lower in 1997, there is still a large potential market for imported turkey products, especially relatively low-priced ground turkey or mechanically deboned turkey meat for sausage production. Other Chicken Exports After growing by over 150 percent in 1996, exports of other chicken products are forecast to expand by an additional 35 percent to 357 million pounds in 1997. While higher exports are expected in most markets, much of the expansion will come from higher shipments to Hong Kong. The growing export market for other chicken products to Hong Kong (up 255 percent in 1996) may have been a contributing factor in the drop in U.S. broiler exports to Hong Kong in 1996. Exports of other chicken products to Mexico are forecast to continue expanding in 1997, even after a large increase in 1996, as there is a strong market for low cost poultry meat either for direct consumption or for use in sausages or other prepared products. Other markets such as Japan and Russia are forecast to increase in 1997. Egg Exports Projected Higher in 1997 Total egg exports are expected to increase in 1997 as continued growth in exports of egg products offsets a possible decline in shipments of shell eggs. Larger shipments of egg products are expected to go to Japan, Mexico, and Canada. With a number of food scares involving raw foods buffeting the Japanese consumer, demand is expected to increase for egg products use in prepared foods. As the Mexican economy continues to show improvements, use of egg products is forecast to expand. Shell egg exports are likely to be lower as growth in shipments to Hong Kong is offset by falling exports to the Middle East. The forecast for eggs and egg products assumes a resolution to the conflict with the EU over inspection equivalency. While the EU represents only a relatively small portion of broiler and turkey exports, shipments to the EU accounted for 7 percent of shell egg and 10 percent of egg product exports in 1996. Trade Issues Cloud Pork Picture The recent outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Taiwan, which resulted in several countries banning imports of Taiwanese pork, and the dispute between the United States and the EU over inspection harmonization issues cloud the outlook for pork trade and prices for the remainder of the year. The trade issues overshadowed the March Hogs and Pigs report released on March 27. Based on the inventories, pig crops, and farrowing intentions reported, 1997 slaughter projections remain virtually unchanged. However, production projections were updated to reflect changes from the December report. With the September-November pig crop unchanged, projected slaughter in the second quarter remains unchanged at about 22 million head, but the average dressed weight was increased by a pound as hog slaughter weights this year have exceeded expectations. As a result, second-quarter pork production is projected to be up slightly from a year ago. In December, producers indicated intentions to have 1 percent more sows farrow in December-February than a year ago, but actual farrowings were down 2 percent. However, the December-February pig crop was about the same as last year as pigs per litter rose 3 percent. Slaughter in the third quarter is projected to be around 23 million head, up 1 percent from a year ago. In 1996, slaughter as a percentage of the December-February pig crop was below the historical average. With dressed weights a pound heavier, pork production for the quarter is expected to rise about 3 percent. In December, producers indicated intentions to reduce March-May farrowings 2 percent from actual farrowings a year earlier, but in March reported no change. The March-May pig crop is expected to be up about 2 percent, if pigs per litter continue on their upward trend. The March-May pig crop provides most of the fourth quarter slaughter, which is expected to be about 24.4 million head, up 2 percent from a year ago. Pork production for all 1997 is projected to be up fractionally from 1996 due to slightly heavier weights despite the slight drop in commercial hog slaughter. Although first-quarter production was 4 percent below a year ago, production is expected to be above a year ago for the remainder of the year. Hog prices are expected to average in the mid-$50s per hundredweight in 1997, up about $2 from 1996 as growth in population and net exports reduce retail per capita consumption 3-4 percent. The greatest strength is expected during the summer with prices rising above $60 per cwt. Reduced imports and increased exports are expected to reduce summer retail per capita consumption to the lowest since 1986. Retail composite pork prices are expected to rise 5-7 percent this year, following a 13-percent increase in 1996. The gap between the all fresh retail beef and the composite retail pork price is very narrow and is expected to moderate pork price gains as consumers will likely substitute beef for pork. In 1994 and 1995, the average gap between the all fresh retail beef price and the composite retail pork price was 67 and 64 cents, respectively. As pork prices rose and beef prices declined, the average gap narrowed to 31 cents in 1996. In first-quarter 1997, the gap between the two prices averaged 23 cents. Late in the year, beef supplies are expected to tighten providing less competition for pork, and the price gap will likely widen. Pork Exports To Increase The FMD outbreak in Taiwan and the veterinary equivalence dispute with the EU will likely significantly increase U.S. net pork exports. Total pork exports in 1997 are expected to increase almost 23 percent above the March 1997 forecast, with U.S. exports to Japan increasing about 270 million pounds (carcass weight). The largest increases in shipments of U.S. pork to Japan are likely to occur as the Japanese (annual) Safeguard expires on June 30. Taiwan's suspension on March 20, 1997 of all exports of pork and breeding pigs following confirmation of FMD in the Taiwanese herd created considerable uncertainty in domestic and international pork markets. Taiwan has effectively disappeared as a major U.S. competitor in the Japanese pork market, which accounts for over half of U.S. pork exports. Almost 30 percent of Taiwan's 2.8 billion pound pork production in 1996 was exported; virtually all to Japan. Taiwanese pork exports provided 17 percent of Japan's total pork consumption in 1996. The absence of Taiwan in the Japanese market creates opportunities for the U.S. pork industry. But the tastes and preferences of Japanese consumers, and their willingness to purchase pork at higher prices, are a source of uncertainty in this market. The Japanese import response to the FMD situation will thus largely be determined by Japanese consumer sensitivity to higher pork prices, food safety concerns, and to perceived differences between U.S. and Taiwanese fresh pork. Japanese consumers appear to be very conscious of food safety. Frequent incidents of E-Coli-0157 poisonings, together with the 1996 European outbreak of BSE, recent reports of anthrax in the Australian beef herd, and hog cholera in the European pig herd, have together generated considerable consumer anxiety about meat consumption in Japan. Although no evidence exists that consumption of FMD-infected meat is harmful to humans, tighter pork supplies at higher prices may encourage many Japanese consumers to substitute chicken, fish, and tofu for pork, at least in the short run. Questions have been raised about the substitutability between Taiwanese and U.S. fresh pork. Some Japanese consumers have demonstrated a preference for Taiwanese pork, which tends to be darker in color, and a sweeter tasting meat than U.S. pork. Hog varieties and processing procedures account for these differences. Perceived appearance and taste differences could thus be a factor limiting Japanese consumer demand for U.S. fresh pork. Earlier this year, Taiwan was expected to export 794 million pounds (carcass weight) of pork in 1997. Having exported 88 million pounds prior to March 20, the export ban creates a "gap" of approximately 705 million pounds in Japanese pork imports, or roughly 235 million pounds of fresh, and 470 million pounds of frozen pork, based on recent Taiwanese export shares. USDA estimates that higher pork prices in Japan, food safety concerns, and substitutability questions will likely reduce the fresh component of the "gap" by approximately 10 percent, and the frozen component by approximately 30 percent. Thus, total Japanese imports for 1997 could reach 1.8 billion pounds, down 8 percent from almost 2 billion pounds forecast earlier this year. Expectations are that the U.S. will gain up to 90 percent of the 1997 post-FMD fresh pork market in Japan, or up to 557 million pounds. Canada and Korea will account for most of the balance. The United States is expected to take a 20-percent share of the frozen market, or about 241 million pounds, with Denmark taking almost 50 percent, and Canada and Korea accounting for most of the balance. The likelihood of Safeguard (SG) imposition is another source of uncertainty in the 1997 Japanese import market. In the first quarter of the April-March Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY), it is likely that imports will remain below the SG "trigger level," as the annual SG remains in place until June 30, 1997, thus effectively restricting imports. Safeguard imposition in the second quarter of JFY97-98 will depend on how importers respond to the lifting of the annual SG on July 1. If import surges are avoided, likelihood of SG imposition decreases. Possibility of average-to-below average imports in the July-September quarter are good because of uncertain consumer preferences for meat, higher domestic pork prices, very large stocks, high U.S. dollar exchange rates, and the fact Denmark will play such an important role in the Japanese market, in the absence of Taiwan. Denmark will likely moderate frozen pork shipments to Japan to avoid triggering the SG. It is clearly in their interests to do so because frozen pork, which tends to take the biggest "hit" when the SG is imposed, is the only pork product Denmark exports to Japan. The annual SG, in place until June 30, forces a "back loading" of U.S. 1997 exports to Japan. Projections are that 67 percent of 1997 total pork exports will be shipped in the second half of the year, compared with 44 percent last year. The United States is expected to export 1.365 billion pounds of pork in 1997, with nearly 60 percent going to Japan. Upward revisions in expected U.S. exports to Japan had little effect on expected U.S. exports to other countries because of the rapid development of an international pork "cuts" market. This means that increases in the quantities of loins and tenderloins exported to Japan will not necessarily decrease the quantities of shoulder cuts and trim available for export to other important U.S. export customers such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. Price effects of increased loins and tenderloins to Japan are expected to be moderated by the willingness of U.S. consumers to substitute towards relatively attractively priced beef cuts. Both U.S. and Canadian processors will have to pay higher prices for hogs in 1997, particularly since the Taiwan/FMD situation developed. The U.S. hog processing industry remains well below capacity, particularly in the North Central States. The Canadian processing industry has a significantly higher cost structure than in the United States. Higher costs--particularly labor--constrains the amount that Canadian processors can pay for hogs. Thus, the prospect of higher profits from higher U.S. hog prices, very attractive exchange rates, and the elimination of the U.S. Countervailing Duty on Canadian hogs, will likely bring over 3 million Canadian hogs to the United States for slaughter in 1997. U.S. pork imports could fall by almost 7 percent, if the veterinary equivalency dispute with the EU continues. Import decreases from Denmark would likely impact the domestic U.S. market in the second and third quarters of 1997. During the second and third quarters, a large proportion of Danish shipments are ribs for the U.S. barbecue season. However, Denmark is expected to increase shipments of single rib bellies (bellies with ribs still attached) to Japan during that period. Beef Prices Firming Domestic beef demand is strengthening as the barbeque season begins, and pork prices and security of supplies have become less attractive. However, the international beef market continues to operate in a lackluster atmosphere. Beef exports to Japan weakened in the second half of 1996 and remain sluggish in early 1997 for all the major exporters. Exports to Japan are well below a year earlier, while exports to Mexico and Korea remain strong. Despite expectations for improved export markets as the Japanese tariff on beef imports declined on April 1, from the snapback level of 50 percent to 44.3 percent, sales through the second half will likely remain disappointing. The international meat market continues to come under a barrage of negative news that began a year ago. Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), E-Coli, Anthrax, hog Cholera, and now FMD have all heightened food safety concerns and disrupted meat markets. Japanese consumers have exhibited nervousness in food purchases, and this behavior could intensify with continued disease outbreaks and food safety concerns. Beef production in January through April was down 3 percent from a year earlier, but 4 to 6 percent above 1994-95 levels. With the export market very uncertain, the domestic market will likely have to absorb a larger share of production at least in first-half 1997. Cattle on feed inventories remain well above a year earlier, and although feedlot marketings remain very current, fed cattle slaughter levels will be increasing through at least midsummer. Second-quarter exports in 1996 were very strong. So second-quarter 1997 exports will have to strengthen considerably just to hold even with 1996. Cow slaughter continues to move below a year earlier, and as spring finally arrives in the northern areas of the country, should drop fairly sharply from the large year-earlier levels. Much of the price strength over the past couple of months, in addition to the reduced beef supplies, has been due to promotional activity by the fast food industry. However, this market has softened as the weak international market increases foreign processing beef supplies looking for alternative markets. The United States remains a very attractive market. Fed cattle prices are expected to remain in the mid-$60's through summer, but could be under pressure if slaughter weights pick up more than seasonally this summer. Choice boxed beef prices rose to near $109 per cwt in early March, but have moved back toward $100 to $105 in April, still $4-$5 above a year earlier. Beef remains a very attractive alternative to pork in the retail market, particularly with purchases for retail sales as the barbeque season begins. Retail beef prices are near to slightly below a year earlier, while pork prices remain well above a year earlier and continue on a record setting path. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller(Dairy), LaVerne Williams (Statistics). TABLES SELECTED PRICE STATISTICS FOR POULTRY AND EGGS --------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 79.80 76.50 80.30 77.00 69.70 Cents per pound Broiler 37.40 35.30 33.70 34.60 37.10 Turkey 40.90 42.40 41.80 41.90 43.10 Wholesale Broilers 12-city avg, RTC 59.00 55.31 54.31 56.01 61.71 U.S. composite ave 63.46 61.48 59.24 60.62 71.41 Georgia dock 57.62 55.59 54.07 54.90 58.82 Northeast Breast, boneless 157.29 152.48 159.64 164.86 197.53 Breast, Ribs on 77.44 77.74 80.39 83.09 105.14 Legs, whole 59.08 56.69 50.15 50.81 53.67 Leg quarters 43.26 38.98 32.59 34.45 38.10 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 64.33 64.70 65.00 65.63 67.99 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.60 64.65 65.07 64.81 65.36 Breast 4-8 lb. 102.33 101.57 98.07 98.19 99.16 Drumsticks 26.95 25.90 26.46 27.50 25.06 Wings, full cut 31.45 32.40 33.13 36.36 35.07 Eggs, grade A, large, dozen Cents per dozen 12 city metro 91.76 89.18 94.91 89.63 80.15 New York 91.26 85.70 91.79 85.59 76.50 Price to retailer U.S. average Cents per dozen Eggs 90.76 88.18 93.91 88.63 79.15 Cents per pound Broiler 67.00 63.31 62.31 64.01 69.71 Turkey 73.11 74.04 73.26 73.37 75.00 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Cents per pound Composite 146.80 149.80 144.60 146.90 149.60 Whole, fresh 94.10 94.00 93.30 94.70 94.90 Breast, bone-in 196.70 202.80 191.40 197.60 201.80 Legs, bone-in 121.80 123.20 121.70 121.20 123.40 Whole turkey, froz 103.50 104.70 106.90 101.40 104.30 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 115.50 109.10 113.80 108.60 102.10 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 148.00 149.40 148.00 147.60 149.60 Chicken, whole fresh 146.30 146.60 146.40 147.00 148.80 Parts, fresh and froze 151.70 153.80 150.20 150.60 152.50 Other poultry 146.10 147.20 149.00 145.30 147.80 Eggs 145.70 141.20 145.90 141.80 132.30 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 83.34 88.32 85.36 86.28 78.19 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 27.10 30.69 30.99 30.69 25.19 Turkey, whole 30.39 30.66 33.64 28.03 29.30 Cents per dozen Eggs 24.74 20.92 19.89 19.97 22.95 --------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary SELECTED HATCH, SLAUGHTER, AND PRODUCTION STATISTICS FOR POULTRY AND EGGS -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousand Broiler 573,529 569,074 573,951 561,736 570,660 Turkey 35,618 36,343 36,180 39,218 37,915 Egg-type 28,171 31,353 34,339 33,919 33,706 Hatch Broiler chicks 689,994 645,590 692,287 668,378 700,556 Egg-type chicks 31,523 34,627 37,474 35,628 38,607 Placements Turkey poults 27,391 27,596 27,932 29,725 29,668 Broiler breeders 5,487 5,916 6,093 6,746 6,776 Egg-type breeders 219 238 317 252 291 Layers: In production Thousand Table egg 245,523 244,708 244,703 243,578 241,542 Hatching egg 53,291 53,649 53,506 53,027 52,916 All 298,814 298,357 298,209 296,605 294,458 Percent Being molted, first of 3.7 5.4 3.5 2.0 5.5 Molt complete 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.9 22.2 Thousand Light hen slaughter 8,457 8,208 7,313 8,601 8,431 Heavy hen slaughter 5,697 5,141 5,930 5,535 5,266 Eggs per 100 layers, first of the month Number Table egg 72.2 70.1 71.8 73.2 71.3 Hatching egg 59.3 59.0 59.1 60.1 60.3 All 69.9 68.1 69.5 70.9 69.4 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 452 420 459 440 445 Hatching egg 82 77 83 80 83 All 533 496 541 520 528 Eggs for breaking 118 108 116 127 138 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 77,600 81,806 91,143 92,271 98,737 Frozen 32,339 28,126 30,529 31,430 36,661 Dried 9,690 9,915 9,692 11,468 12,981 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousand Broiler 644,121 618,637 617,555 626,220 663,234 Turkey 21,557 22,820 22,615 23,036 25,469 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.84 4.80 4.79 4.82 4.75 Turkey 24.56 23.82 23.74 24.07 24.10 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,117 2,969 2,956 3,015 3,149 Turkey 530 544 537 554 614 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,286 2,168 2,155 2,202 2,299 Turkey 416 429 425 437 485 Mature chicken 44 41 43 44 43 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 567 668 668 700 706 Total turkey 271 339 423 445 515 Eggs, frozen 14 16 16 12 12 --------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary SELECTED PRICE STATISTICS FOR POULTRY AND EGGS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 71.50 70.90 74.40 76.80 74.60 Cents per pound Broiler 40.50 41.00 41.50 41.40 40.60 Turkey 44.70 45.00 44.40 43.80 45.10 Wholesale Broilers 12-city average, R 65.52 64.58 64.07 64.01 62.64 U.S. composite ave 71.20 70.02 70.76 69.60 65.70 Georgia dock 63.47 64.83 65.07 65.21 64.42 Northeast Breast, boneless 193.90 204.43 201.43 189.50 169.43 Breast, Ribs on 97.86 103.71 98.10 92.11 82.16 Legs, whole 59.47 59.59 57.48 59.14 59.22 Leg quarters 41.88 41.95 42.31 44.53 45.29 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 70.04 70.50 71.24 70.83 71.43 Hens, 8-16 lb. 65.85 65.66 64.94 64.16 69.09 Breast 4-8 lb. 99.85 102.00 103.20 106.40 107.25 Drumsticks 24.62 24.40 31.55 33.91 35.44 Wings, full cut 30.57 31.02 37.14 39.57 41.13 Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen 12 city metro 82.37 84.39 92.11 94.32 89.21 New York 79.40 80.95 86.86 89.95 86.68 Price to retailer U.S. average Cents per dozen Eggs 81.37 83.39 91.11 93.32 88.21 Cents per pound Broiler 73.52 72.58 72.07 72.01 70.64 Turkey 76.10 76.46 76.54 76.18 78.52 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Cents per pound Composite 151.10 150.40 152.30 158.00 152.90 Whole, fresh 96.80 97.20 99.00 100.60 102.10 Breast, bone-in 208.90 202.40 205.30 213.50 201.40 Legs, bone-in 120.50 123.90 125.20 129.90 128.50 Whole turkey, froz 104.10 104.40 108.60 106.50 107.40 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 94.50 104.20 107.20 115.00 112.90 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 151.30 152.70 154.50 155.80 157.10 Chicken, whole fresh 151.80 154.40 156.70 157.20 159.00 Parts, fresh and froze 153.40 153.90 155.40 157.50 158.50 Other poultry 149.20 150.90 152.60 153.30 154.40 Eggs 132.70 133.20 138.10 143.50 142.60 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 79.90 80.38 81.58 88.40 87.20 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 23.28 24.62 26.93 28.59 31.46 Turkey, whole 28.00 27.94 32.06 30.32 28.88 Cents per dozen Eggs 13.13 20.81 16.09 21.68 24.69 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary SELECTED HATCH, SLAUGHTER, AND PRODUCTION STATISTICS FOR POULTRY AND EGGS ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousand Broiler 573,432 564,351 570,953 567,598 539,425 Turkey 38,128 37,685 36,157 32,048 32,333 Egg-type 31,963 30,281 28,879 27,792 30,634 Hatch Broiler chicks 672,168 679,766 690,838 658,976 652,232 Egg-type chicks 34,076 33,331 32,393 32,070 33,065 Placements Turkey poults 27,987 28,913 27,496 24,154 25,354 Broiler breeders 6,169 6,029 6,510 6,166 6,221 Egg-type breeders 282 266 186 231 233 Layers: In production Thousand Table egg 241,303 243,171 244,647 245,961 248,071 Hatching egg 52,612 52,178 52,138 51,735 51,125 All 293,915 295,349 296,785 297,696 299,196 Percent Being molted, first of 4.7 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.8 Molt complete 22.3 22.9 22.0 22.4 23.0 Thousand Light hen slaughter 6,469 7,114 6,649 6,803 8,141 Heavy hen slaughter 5,629 5,630 4,527 5,753 6,386 Eggs per 100 layers, f Number Table egg 71.3 72.5 72.2 71.8 71.7 Hatching egg 61.0 60.5 60.9 61.0 60.2 All 69.5 70.3 70.2 69.9 69.7 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 434 455 455 441 462 Hatching egg 80 82 82 78 80 All 514 537 537 520 541 Eggs for breaking 126 136 129 125 143 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 86,107 90,742 98,683 91,313 113,038 Frozen 31,440 33,768 34,119 32,570 35,211 Dried 11,309 11,112 9,885 9,913 12,395 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousand Broiler 599,799 655,381 660,370 606,694 686,141 Turkey 24,315 26,498 26,774 24,267 28,051 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.72 4.66 4.71 4.77 4.81 Turkey 23.82 23.36 22.85 23.28 23.74 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 2,830 3,054 3,111 2,896 3,303 Turkey 579 619 612 565 666 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,070 2,233 2,278 2,117 2,414 Turkey 456 489 482 444 523 Mature chicken 40 42 35 41 47 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 655 665 624 616 587 Total turkey 587 680 718 723 721 Eggs, frozen 11 12 13 15 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary SELECTED PRICE STATISTICS FOR POULTRY AND EGGS ----------------------------------------------- Item Nov-96 Dec-96 ----------------------------------------------- Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 82.70 87.70 Cents per pound Broiler 40.90 41.60 Turkey 45.40 43.60 Wholesale Broilers 12-city average, R 64.37 63.50 U.S. composite ave 66.95 62.07 Georgia dock 64.83 64.29 Northeast Breast, boneless 169.92 156.40 Breast, Ribs on 84.95 75.58 Legs, whole 60.17 57.28 Leg quarters 45.60 37.74 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 70.63 63.36 Hens, 8-16 lb. 73.58 70.05 Breast 4-8 lb. 105.78 101.67 Drumsticks 34.78 35.30 Wings, full cut 43.22 46.00 Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen 12 city metro 103.32 106.38 New York 102.50 100.90 Price to retailer U.S. average Cents per dozen Eggs 101.50 105.38 Cents per pound Broiler 72.60 71.50 Turkey 80.13 75.38 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Cents per pound Composite 151.50 154.20 Whole, fresh 100.30 100.20 Breast, bone-in 204.90 209.30 Legs, bone-in 123.50 125.60 Whole turkey, froz 98.10 102.00 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lg. 113.90 130.80 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 157.30 157.80 Chicken, whole fresh 158.30 158.20 Parts, fresh and froze 161.40 161.50 Other poultry 150.10 152.30 Eggs 145.60 162.90 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 84.55 92.13 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 27.70 28.70 Turkey, whole 17.97 26.62 Cents per dozen Eggs 12.40 25.42 ------------------------------------------ /* Preliminary SELECTED HATCH, SLAUGHTER, AND PRODUCTION STATISTICS FOR POULTRY AND EGGS -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Nov-96 Dec-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousand Broiler 527,789 573,495 Turkey 31,668 33,667 Egg-type 28,787 30,770 Hatch Broiler chicks 631,142 695,011 Egg-type chicks 31,437 33,017 Placements Turkey poults 23,830 27,119 Broiler breeders 6,508 5,947 Egg-type breeders 210 215 Layers: In production Thousand Table egg 249,823 249,000 Hatching egg 51,781 51,500 All 301,604 300,500 Percent Being molted, first of 3.0 2.1 Molt complete 23.9 23.5 Thousand Light hen slaughter 5,871 8,072 Heavy hen slaughter 3,856 4,129 Eggs per 100 layers, fresh Number Table egg 72.2 73.6 Hatching egg 60.5 60.3 All 70.2 71.3 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 456 475 Hatching egg 78 82 All 534 557 Eggs for breaking 119 126 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 91,350 91,523 Frozen 28,851 32,886 Dried 10,048 10,916 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousand Broiler 573,057 595,041 Turkey 25,884 22,005 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.81 4.84 Turkey 22.87 23.87 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 2,757 2,877 Turkey 592 525 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,013 2,100 Turkey 468 411 Mature chicken 31 35 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 591 574 Total turkey 658 348 Eggs, frozen 13 10 ------------------------------------------ /* Preliminary EGG SUPPLY 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Production Beginning Breaking Imports Total Year stocks egg use supply --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Total egg 1995 I 1,548.9 14.9 --- 1.1 1,564.9 II 1,545.2 14.9 --- 1.2 1,561.3 III 1,532.9 17.9 --- 1.0 1,551.8 IV 1,588.6 13.0 --- 0.8 1,602.4 Year 6,215.6 14.9 --- 4.1 6,234.6 1996 I 1,570.6 11.2 --- 1.5 1,583.4 II 1,562.7 9.8 --- 1.6 1,574.1 III 1,593.5 9.6 --- 1.2 1,604.3 IV 1,631.8 11.9 --- 1.0 1,644.7 Year 6,358.6 11.2 --- 5.4 6,375.2 1997 I 3/ 1,595.0 8.5 --- 1.0 1,604.5 II 3/ 1,620.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,631.0 III 3/ 1,660.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,673.0 IV 3/ 1,680.0 12.0 --- 1.0 1,693.0 Year 3 6,555.0 8.5 --- 4.0 6,567.5 Shell eggs: 1995 I 1,548.9 0.1 355.8 0.7 1,193.9 II 1,545.2 0.8 362.5 1.0 1,184.6 III 1,532.9 0.5 358.9 0.8 1,175.3 IV 1,588.6 0.7 350.4 0.6 1,239.4 Year 6,215.6 0.1 1,427.7 3.1 4,791.1 1996 I 1,570.6 0.8 342.5 0.8 1,229.6 II 1,562.7 0.5 390.1 1.3 1,174.4 III 1,593.5 0.7 389.7 0.9 1,205.3 IV 1,631.8 0.6 388.4 0.5 1,244.5 Year 6,358.6 0.8 1,510.8 3.5 4,852.1 1997 Year / 6,555.0 0.8 1,650.0 3.0 4,908.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products. 3/ Forecast. EGG UTILIZATION 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports Hatching Ending Consumption Year 2/ egg use stocks Total Per capita --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Number Total eggs: 1995 I 45.5 207.1 14.9 1,297.4 59.4 II 50.1 214.1 17.9 1,279.1 58.4 III 47.0 213.0 13.0 1,278.8 58.3 IV 66.4 212.9 11.2 1,311.9 59.6 Year 208.9 847.2 11.2 5,167.3 235.7 1996 I 59.3 217.4 9.8 1,296.7 58.8 II 65.6 217.2 9.6 1,281.7 58.2 III 66.0 215.8 11.9 1,310.6 59.3 IV 62.2 214.3 8.5 1,359.7 61.1 Year 253.1 864.7 8.5 5,248.8 237.1 1997 I 3/ 58.0 220.0 10.0 1,316.5 59.1 II 3/ 64.0 230.0 12.0 1,325.0 59.4 III 3/ 67.0 225.0 12.0 1,369.0 61.2 IV 3/ 69.0 225.0 12.0 1,387.0 61.9 Year 3 258.0 900.0 12.0 5,397.5 241.7 Shell eggs: 1995 I 23.9 207.1 0.8 962.1 44.0 II 25.4 214.1 0.5 944.5 43.1 III 24.7 213.0 0.7 936.8 42.7 IV 35.0 212.9 0.8 990.8 45.0 Year 109.0 847.2 0.8 3,834.1 174.9 1996 I 29.6 217.4 0.5 982.2 44.5 II 26.3 217.2 0.7 930.1 42.1 III 28.4 215.8 0.6 960.6 43.4 IV 29.6 214.1 0.8 999.9 45.0 Year 113.8 864.7 0.8 3,872.7 175.0 1997 Year / 100.0 900.0 0.0 3,908.8 175.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. EGG EXPORTS TO MAJOR IMPORTERS 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------- Country January 1996 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 dozen Japan 5,729 4,582 5,729 Mexico 3,255 4,563 3,255 Canada 2,556 1,098 2,556 Hong Kong 2,533 2,206 2,533 Netherlands 840 161 840 Germany 531 143 531 Jamaica 269 279 269 Malaysia 249 0 249 United Arab Emirates 187 3,378 187 Spain 134 3 134 Korea 132 218 132 Trinidad 129 105 129 Czech. Republic 123 69 123 United Kingdom 107 83 107 Brazil 99 553 99 Russia 91 102 91 Norway 71 0 71 Nicaragua 70 179 70 Denmark 67 0 67 Colombia 65 110 65 Other 517 1,037 517 Total 17,755 18,868 17,755 --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Shell and shell equivalent of egg products. U.S. MATURE CHICKEN EXPORTS TO MAJOR IMPORTERS -------------------------------------------------------------- Country January 1996 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 lbs. Hong Kong 14,814 1,331 14,814 Japan 4,001 1,034 4,001 Canada 2,178 2,875 2,178 South Africa 2,071 0 2,071 Poland 1,960 78 1,960 Haiti 1,322 291 1,322 Mexico 1,233 420 1,233 Singapore 880 0 880 Korea 739 0 739 China 721 0 721 Azerbaijan 434 0 434 New Caledonia 356 209 356 Surinam 310 50 310 St. Lucia 231 74 231 Albania 208 0 208 Spain 150 0 150 Kiribati 150 0 150 Germany 133 0 133 Jamaica 125 0 125 Cayman Is. 116 83 116 Other 956 8,869 956 Total 33,088 15,313 33,088 ------------------------------------------------------------- POULTRY SUPPLY, CARCASS WEIGHT 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production ---------------------- Net RTC Begin- Year Federal Other produc- ning Total Inspected tion stocks supply ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Broilers: 1995 I 6,147 10 6,099 458 6,557 II 6,356 10 6,307 487 6,794 III 6,182 10 6,134 528 6,662 IV 6,336 10 6,287 491 6,778 Year 25,021 39 24,827 458 25,286 1996 I 6,610 9 6,557 560 7,117 II 6,571 9 6,518 688 7,206 III 6,628 9 6,575 651 7,226 IV 6,527 9 6,475 573 7,048 Year 26,336 38 26,124 560 26,684 , 1997 I 2/ 6,700 10 6,645 641 7,286 II 2/ 6,950 10 6,893 725 7,618 III 2/ 7,000 10 6,942 700 7,642 IV 2/ 6,950 10 6,893 650 7,543 Year 2/ 27,600 39 27,372 641 28,013 Other chicken: 1995 I 128 1 128 14 142 II 133 1 133 6 139 III 115 1 115 10 125 IV 119 1 120 9 128 Year 494 3 496 14 510 1996 I 129 1 130 7 137 II 127 1 128 12 140 III 119 1 120 14 134 IV 113 1 114 14 128 Year 487 5 491 7 498 1997 I 2/ 125 1 126 6 132 II 2/ 135 1 136 6 142 III 2/ 130 1 131 10 141 IV 2/ 125 1 126 10 136 Year 2/ 515 5 520 6 525 Turkey: 1995 I 1,196 1 1,182 254 1,437 II 1,297 1 1,282 432 1,714 III 1,289 1 1,274 599 1,873 IV 1,347 1 1,331 686 2,017 Year 5,129 4 5,069 254 5,324 1996 I 1,270 1 1,255 271 1,526 II 1,378 1 1,362 445 1,807 III 1,415 1 1,398 680 2,078 IV 1,403 1 1,386 721 2,107 Year 5,466 3 5,401 271 5,672 1997 I 2/ 1,275 1 1,260 328 1,588 II 2/ 1,425 1 1,408 450 1,858 III 2/ 1,450 1 1,433 650 2,083 IV 2/ 1,450 1 1,433 750 2,183 Year 2/ 5,600 3 5,533 328 5,861 Total poultry: 1995 I 7,470 11 7,409 727 8,136 II 7,786 12 7,723 925 8,647 III 7,585 11 7,523 1,136 8,659 IV 7,802 12 7,738 1,186 8,924 Year 30,644 46 30,393 727 31,119 1996 I 8,008 11 7,941 839 8,780 II 8,075 12 8,007 1,145 9,152 III 8,162 11 8,092 1,345 9,437 IV 8,043 11 7,975 1,309 9,283 Year 32,289 46 32,015 839 32,854 1997 I 2/ 8,100 12 8,030 975 9,005 II 2/ 8,510 12 8,436 1,181 9,617 III 2/ 8,580 12 8,506 1,360 9,791 IV 2/ 8,525 12 8,451 1,410 9,791 Year 2/ 33,715 48 33,424 975 34,399 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast POULTRY UTILIZATION, CARCASS AND RETAIL WEIGHT 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Per capita Total Consumption Year Ending disap- Carcass Retail Exports stocks pearance weight weight ---------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Million pounds ----- ----- Pounds ------ Broilers: 1995 I 873 487 5,198 19.8 17.2 II 856 528 5,410 20.6 17.9 III 1,019 491 5,152 19.6 17.0 IV 1,147 560 5,072 19.2 16.7 Year 3,894 560 20,831 79.2 68.8 1996 I 1,075 688 5,355 20.2 17.6 II 1,057 651 5,497 20.7 18.0 III 1,121 573 5,531 20.8 18.1 IV 1,167 641 5,240 19.7 17.1 Year 4,420 641 21,622 81.4 70.7 1997 I 2/ 1,035 725 5,526 20.7 18.0 II 2/ 1,125 700 5,793 21.6 18.8 III 2/ 1,275 650 5,717 21.3 18.5 IV 2/ 1,350 700 5,493 20.4 17.7 Year 2/ 4,785 700 22,528 84.1 73.0 Other chicken: 1995 I 20 6 116 0.4 0.4 II 23 10 107 0.4 0.4 III 26 9 90 0.3 0.3 IV 30 7 91 0.3 0.3 Year 99 7 403 1.5 1.5 1996 I 39 12 86 0.3 0.3 II 47 14 79 0.3 0.3 III 78 14 41 0.2 0.2 IV 100 6 23 0.1 0.1 Year 265 6 228 0.9 0.9 1997 I 2/ 86 6 40 0.1 0.1 II 2/ 81 10 51 0.2 0.2 III 2/ 90 10 41 0.2 0.2 IV 2/ 100 10 26 0.1 0.1 Year 2/ 357 10 158 0.6 0.6 Turkey: 1995 I 59 432 946 3.6 3.6 II 83 599 1,033 3.9 3.9 III 90 686 1,096 4.2 4.2 IV 116 271 1,630 6.2 6.2 Year 348 271 4,705 17.9 17.9 1996 I 96 445 985 3.7 3.7 II 93 680 1,034 3.9 3.9 III 124 721 1,233 4.6 4.6 IV 125 328 1,654 6.2 6.2 Year 438 328 4,906 18.5 18.5 1997 I 2/ 100 450 1,038 3.9 3.9 II 2/ 113 650 1,095 4.1 4.1 III 2/ 119 750 1,214 4.5 4.5 IV 2/ 135 350 1,698 6.3 6.3 Year 2/ 467 350 5,044 18.8 18.8 Total poultry: 1995 I 952 925 6,259 23.9 21.2 II 961 1,136 6,550 24.9 22.2 III 1,135 1,186 6,338 24.1 21.5 IV 1,293 839 6,792 25.7 23.2 Year 4,342 839 25,939 98.6 88.2 1996 I 1,210 1,145 6,426 24.3 21.6 II 1,198 1,345 6,610 24.9 22.2 III 1,323 1,309 6,805 25.6 22.9 IV 1,392 975 6,916 25.9 23.4 Year 5,123 975 26,756 100.8 90.1 1997 I 2/ 1,221 1,181 6,603 24.7 22.0 II 2/ 1,319 1,360 6,938 25.9 23.1 III 2/ 1,484 1,410 6,976 26.0 23.2 IV 2/ 1,585 1,060 6,976 26.8 24.2 Year 2/ 5,609 1,060 27,730 103.5 92.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast. POULTRY AND EGG COSTS AND RETURNS 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------- Production costs Total Wholesale Net Year Feed Total costs 2/ Price /3 returns -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market Eggs (Cents/dozen) 1995: I 26.0 44.2 64.7 72.4 7.7 II 27.5 45.7 66.2 66.7 0.5 III 29.4 47.6 68.1 77.7 9.6 IV 32.5 50.7 71.2 88.7 17.5 Year 28.9 47.1 67.6 76.5 8.9 1996: I 37.0 55.2 75.7 92.0 16.4 II 43.0 61.2 81.7 84.0 2.4 III 44.1 62.3 82.8 90.2 7.5 IV 34.3 52.5 73.0 99.4 26.4 Year 39.5 57.7 78.2 90.5 13.3 1997: I 32.7 50.9 71.4 88.1 16.7 Broilers Cents/lb. 1995: I 15.0 25.3 47.4 51.7 4.3 II 15.5 25.9 48.1 53.5 5.4 III 16.3 26.7 49.2 60.7 11.5 IV 17.3 27.7 50.5 59.6 9.1 Year 16.0 26.4 48.8 56.4 7.6 1996: I 19.6 29.9 53.5 56.3 2.8 II 21.5 31.9 56.0 61.0 5.0 III 23.6 34.0 58.8 64.2 5.4 IV 20.9 31.2 55.2 63.5 8.3 Year 21.4 31.7 55.9 61.2 5.4 1997: I 18.6 28.9 52.1 60.0 7.9 Turkeys Cents/lb. 1995: I 20.4 34.1 59.0 59.4 0.4 II 21.1 34.8 59.8 61.6 1.8 III 22.3 36.0 61.3 68.9 7.6 IV 23.8 37.5 63.1 74.3 11.2 Year 21.9 35.6 60.8 66.2 5.4 1996: I 27.2 40.9 67.5 64.5 -3.0 II 30.2 43.9 71.2 65.8 -5.3 III 35.0 48.7 77.1 67.4 -9.8 IV 33.3 47.0 75.1 69.1 -5.9 Year 31.6 45.3 72.9 66.8 -6.1 1997: I 27.1 40.8 67.4 58.1 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated costs and prices are weighted by monthly production. 2/ Based on farm cost converted to wholesale market value. 3/ Wholesale prices used are the 12-metro egg price, 12-city weighted average broiler price, and a weighted average of 8 to 16- pound young hens and 14 to 22-pound toms in Central, Western and Eastern Regions. U.S. BROILER EXPORTS TO MAJOR IMPORTERS ------------------------------------------------- January Total January Country 1996 1996 1997 ------------------------------------------------- 1,000 lbs. Russia 184,674 130,375 184,674 Hong Kong 54,422 44,731 54,422 Mexico 17,322 17,126 17,322 Poland 12,191 27,632 12,191 Japan 12,073 20,543 12,073 China 10,410 16,225 10,410 Latvia 9,382 45 9,382 Canada 6,192 5,297 6,192 South Afric 5,204 6,234 5,204 Jamaica 3,262 3,705 3,262 Azerbaijan 3,039 100 3,039 Singapore 2,706 4,638 2,706 N. Antilles 1,785 972 1,785 Colombia 1,783 2,408 1,783 Aruba 1,443 829 1,443 Antigua 1,409 574 1,409 Haiti 1,240 877 1,240 Fr. Polynes 1,223 1,020 1,223 United King 1,004 0 1,004 St. Lucia 971 698 972 Other 26,958 31,626 26,958 Total 349,620 309,250 349,620 ------------------------------------------------- U.S. TURKEY EXPORTS TO MAJOR IMPORTERS ------------------------------------------------- January Total January Country 1996 1996 1997 ------------------------------------------------- 1,000 lbs. Mexico 12,487 11,690 12,487 Hong Kong 5,233 1,094 5,233 Russia 1,824 6,980 1,824 South Africa 1,638 0 1,638 Korea 1,592 1,432 1,592 Germany 583 140 583 Poland 576 3,217 576 Colombia 482 95 482 United King 379 341 379 Greece 377 0 377 Canada 345 257 345 Haiti 339 47 339 Taiwan 307 281 307 W. Samoa 302 34 302 French Polynesia 250 0 250 Singapore 209 98 209 Jamaica 205 86 205 Ghana 158 301 158 Panama 157 33 157 Japan 138 82 138 Other 1,057 1,750 1,057 Total 28,639 27,958 28,639 ------------------------------------------------- HOG BREEDING HERD CHANGES, UNITED STATES ------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory change: December 1 breeding 1/ 7,109 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,655 December-February Sow slaughter 939 919 1,010 904 737 Stag/boar slaughter 213 205 233 179 149 Gilts/boars added 1,083 1,169 1,181 1009 1031 % of inventory 15.2% 16.3% 16.7% 14.8% 15.5% March 1 breeding 7,040 7,210 6,998 6765 6800 March-May Sow slaughter 896 914 907 955 Stag/boar slaughter 235 243 235 188 Gilts/boars added 1,411 1,512 1,324 1248 % of inventory 20.0% 21.0% 18.9% 18.4% June 1 breeding 7,320 7,565 7,180 6870 June-August Sow slaughter 1,002 1,030 1,015 875 Stag/boar slaughter 225 242 232 168 Gilts/boars added 1,037 1,122 965 943 % of inventory 14.2% 14.8% 13.4% 13.7% September 1 breeding 7,130 7,415 6,898 6770 September-November Sow slaughter 976 1,093 924 802 Stag/boar slaughter 217 225 204 158 Gilts/boars added 1,228 963 1,069 845 % of inventory 17.2% 13.0% 15.5% 12.5% Sows entering breeding December-February 1/ Sows farrowing 2,808 2,885 2,886 2,745 2,677 2/ Sow slaughter 939 919 1,010 904 737 % of inventory 33.4% 31.9% 35.0% 32.9% 27.5% Sows added 1,351 1,424 1,294 1123 1022 % of inventory 42.0% 42.0% 40.8% 37.9% 34.5% March-May Sows farrowing 3,220 3,390 3,170 2964 2962 2/ Sow slaughter 896 914 907 955 % of inventory 27.8% 27.0% 28.6% 32.2% Sows added 648 631 713 752 % of inventory 21.8% 20.3% 24.0% 27.2% June-August Sows farrowing 2,972 3,107 2,976 2761 2816 Sow slaughter 1,002 1,030 1,015 875 % of inventory 33.7% 33.2% 34.1% 31.7% Sows added 1,012 920 854 831 % of inventory 33.9% 30.7% 30.3% 30.6% September-November Sows farrowing 2,982 2,997 2,815 2717 Sow slaughter 976 1,093 924 802 % of inventory 32.7% 36.5% 32.8% 29.5% Sows added 879 982 854 762 % of inventory 30.5% 34.0% 31.1% 28.5% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year 2/ Estimate HOGS ON FARMS, FARROWINGS, AND PIG CROPS, UNITED STATES ------------------------------------------------------------ Inventory 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 head March 1 inventory 56,545 57,350 58,465 56,340 55,900 Breeding 7,040 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,800 Market 49,505 50,140 51,467 49,575 49,100 Under 60 lb 18,480 18,780 19,251 18,790 18,660 60-119 lb 12,107 12,190 12,498 11,980 11,730 120-179 lb 10,372 10,430 10,594 10,095 10,070 180 + lb 8,546 8,740 9,124 8,710 8,640 June 1 inventory 58,395 60,715 59,560 57,200 Breeding 7,320 7,565 7,180 6,870 Market 51,075 53,150 52,380 50,330 Under 60 lb 20,770 22,125 21,270 20,265 60-119 lb 12,865 13,145 13,060 12,700 120-179 lb 9,590 9,825 9,865 9,800 180 + lb 7,850 8,055 8,185 7,565 Sept. 1 inventory 59,030 62,320 60,540 58,200 Breeding 7,130 7,415 6,898 6,770 Market 51,900 54,905 53,642 51,430 Under 60 lb 19,675 20,790 20,235 19,330 60-119 lb 13,175 13,960 13,532 12,800 120-179 lb 10,545 11,170 10,985 10,600 180 + lb 8,505 8,985 8,890 8,700 Dec. 1 inventory 58,202 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,171 Breeding 7,109 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,655 Market 51,093 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,516 Under 60 lb 19,122 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,414 60-119 lb 12,846 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,239 120-179 lb 10,420 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,315 180 + lb 8,705 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,548 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,808 2,885 2,886 2,745 2,677 March-May 3,220 3,390 3,170 2,964 2,962 Dec.-May 1/ 6,028 6,275 6,056 5,709 5,639 June-August 2,972 3,107 2,976 2,761 2,816 Sept.-Nov. 2,982 2,997 2,815 2,717 June-Nov. 5,954 6,104 5,791 5,478 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 22,871 23,368 23,851 23,054 23,069 March-May 26,135 27,984 26,373 25,092 Dec.-May 1/ 49,006 51,352 50,224 48,146 June-August 24,041 25,547 24,813 23,667 Sept.-Nov. 24,003 24,517 23,479 23,159 June-Nov. 48,044 50,064 48,292 46,826 Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.15 8.10 8.27 8.40 8.62 March-May 8.12 8.26 8.32 8.47 Dec.-May 1/ 8.13 8.18 8.29 8.43 June-August 8.09 8.22 8.34 8.57 Sept.-Nov. 8.05 8.18 8.34 8.52 June-Nov. 8.07 8.20 8.34 8.55 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions PRODUCTION INDICATORS --------------------------------------------------------------------- Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,152 8,943 8,783 8,769 Net placements 1,610 1,578 1,485 NA Marketings 1,476 1,738 1,529 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 573,951 582,618 575,711 591,898 Chicks hatched (000)/2 692,287 700,467 631,259 715,000 Hatching egg layers/1 51,078 50,935 51,287 51,453 Pullets placed (000) 6,093 6,393 5,913 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,930 5,173 4,875 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 36,180 34,055 35,802 35,040 Poults placed (000) 27,932 27,130 27,152 27,607 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 459 464 415 465 Table egg layers, (000)/1 244,539 250,442 248,515 249,511 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.8 72.9 70.9 71.9 Chicks hatched (000) 37,474 33,331 35,318 36,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,313 9,787 7,533 9,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Apr-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 65.20 60.07 61.46 61.04 Selling price 59.85 65.35 67.44 68.00 Net margin -5.35 5.28 5.98 6.96 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 42.30 49.50 46.90 46.58 Selling price 50.27 51.44 48.32 52.75 Net margin 7.97 1.94 1.42 6.17 Broiler Wholesale cost 54.80 52.08 52.09 52.93 Wholesale price 56.01 59.53 58.41 60.00 Net margin 1.21 7.45 6.32 7.07 Turkey Wholesale cost 70.51 67.25 67.00 67.01 Wholesale price 64.37 57.00 58.25 61.00 Net margin -6.14 -10.25 -8.75 -6.01 Egg Wholesale cost 77.78 70.95 72.22 74.30 Wholesale price 89.63 87.26 87.27 80.00 Net margin 11.85 16.31 15.05 5.70 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* Estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apr-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 59.85 65.35 67.44 68.00 Nebraska Direct 59.49 65.48 68.21 68.60 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 34.44 34.06 37.44 39.00 Utility boning 29.58 32.50 35.79 38.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 59.30 81.46 87.29 91.00 600-650 lb. 56.90 74.02 77.64 82.65 750-800 lb. 53.10 69.46 69.14 71.85 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 49.33 70.43 76.81 79.70 700-750 lb. 49.08 64.59 65.60 68.70 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 50.47 51.49 48.44 53.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 50.27 51.44 48.32 52.75 Sows 6 Markets 37.86 48.68 46.56 47.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 33.92 NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 83.10 100.81 97.50 96.40 Ewes, Good 35.80 38.50 54.06 53.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 98.65 115.00 122.75 117.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Apr-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* ---------------------------------------------------------------------- $/bushel Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 4.47 2.71 2.90 2.87 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 6.50 4.46 4.53 4.75 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 249.33 262.42 280.53 286.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 93.40 115.00 116.00 94.50 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 88.90 105.00 108.00 90.30 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apr-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 96.01 98.98 104.87 103.25 Choice 1-3 700-850# 95.42 98.17 104.33 102.60 Select 1-3 700-850# 92.86 94.55 99.22 97.75 Cutter Cow 56.95 59.73 68.96 70.25 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 74.21 89.84 102.98 102.00 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 80.25 93.19 101.31 99.50 Hide & offal value 8.23 9.52 9.64 9.32 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 169.97 171.13 181.01 184.50 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 67.50 70.00 68.85 71.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 119.70 109.50 106.58 117.75 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 69.86 68.42 59.05 77.25 Hams, 20-26 lb. 55.95 64.30 57.26 61.75 Trimmings, 72% fresh 46.63 56.00 57.66 61.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 176.25 188.75 189.75 187.00 55-65 lb., Choice 176.25 188.75 189.75 187.00 Broilers 12-city avg. 56.01 59.53 58.41 60.00 Georgia dock 54.90 61.13 60.60 61.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 164.86 168.45 166.21 180.00 Breast, ribs on 83.09 87.58 85.42 95.00 Legs, whole 50.81 50.80 50.60 49.00 Leg quarters 34.45 34.36 33.05 33.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 65.63 57.28 58.33 61.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.81 57.84 59.26 62.00 Drumsticks 27.50 35.81 38.21 35.00 Wings, full cut 36.36 39.13 39.06 38.00 Eggs, grd. A, lg., dozen 12-city Metro 89.63 87.26 87.27 80.00 New York 85.59 82.03 86.31 76.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 275.8 281.7 278.6 276.1 Beef - All Fresh 256.2 256.1 254.4 252.8 Ground Beef 137.5 140.9 139.8 135.6 Rib roast 505.0 529.6 512.1 513.5 T-bone steak 566.1 598.1 587.9 564.0 Pork 209.7 232.7 231.3 228.9 Bacon 220.2 266.4 265.1 265.7 Chops 331.7 346.5 348.5 342.2 Picnic 119.3 133.9 130.6 125.1 Chicken - Composite 144.6 152.4 152.8 149.3 Whole, fresh 93.3 101.6 100.8 100.9 Breast - bone in 191.4 202.8 207.6 199.4 Leg quarter 121.7 126.5 123.9 123.1 Turkey; whole frozen 106.9 106.3 106.7 104.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 113.8 114.8 113.2 105.6 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 155.7 159.1 159.6 160.0 All food 151.6 156.5 156.5 156.6 All meat 137.6 144.5 144.0 143.1 Beef & veal 134.4 137.5 136.6 135.8 Pork 140.7 155.7 155.2 153.6 Poultry 148.0 158.2 157.9 156.3 Dairy Products 136.7 147.8 146.2 146.1 Fluid milk & cream 137.4 148.9 146.1 145.8 Manufactured products 136.7 147.4 147.0 147.0 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 18.4 21.7 18.6 20.5 Wholesale to retail 127.4 125.8 127.1 115.6 Farmers share (%) 47.0 48.0 48.0 51.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 30.6 35.2 36.3 39.4 Wholesale to retail 101.4 113.1 113.7 113.2 Farmers share (%) 37.0 36.0 35.0 33.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 85.4 88.8 88.8 87.0 Retail to consumer Turkey 33.6 38.3 40.7 37.5 Eggs 19.9 26.2 26.9 19.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEAT STATISTICS -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan. - Jan. - Apr-96 Apr-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commercial production Million pounds Beef 8,457 8,159 1,921 1,970 2,045 Veal 118 114 27 28 28 Pork 5,874 5,680 1,309 1,435 1,475 Lamb 99 87 21 26 20 Total red meat 14,548 14,040 3,278 3,459 3,568 Broilers 8,812 8,921 2,069 2,200 2,300 Other chicken 172 167 38 40 45 Turkeys 1,706 1,704 392 420 450 Total poultry 10,691 10,791 2,498 2,660 2,795 Total meat & poultry 25,239 24,831 5,776 6,119 6,363 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 12,085 11,894 2,797 2,873 2,976 Steers 6,000 5,626 1,317 1,373 1,440 Heifers 3,551 3,790 913 908 937 Beef Cows 1,255 1,212 266 282 298 Dairy Cows 1,055 1,049 252 254 241 Bulls and stags 221 218 49 57 60 Calves 563 540 126 133 135 Sheep 1,532 1,340 327 400 308 Hogs 31,686 30,205 6,972 7,650 7,825 Barrows & gilts 30,197 29,002 6,696 7,350 7,505 Sows 1,244 996 226 250 265 Broilers 2,506,533 2,516,471 584,540 620,000 650,000 Turkeys 90,028 89,062 20,645 22,000 23,500 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apr-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* --------------------------------------------------------------------------- F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 699 692 694 694 696 Calves 219 210 214 215 214 Sheep 66 65 66 67 68 Hogs 186 189 189 189 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 347.3 284.9 290.3 260.8 NA Pork 352.9 313.8 344.5 387.0 NA Bellies 47.7 37.9 38.0 43.9 NA Hams 35.7 33.5 49.8 55.8 NA Total chicken 699.9 647.0 676.2 698.9 NA Turkey 445.4 328.0 401.0 446.4 NA Frozen eggs 12.4 10.2 11.0 11.5 NA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS (Note: February trade data will be available on April 18.) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-97 Feb-97 Jan - Jan - Jan '96 Jan '97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lbs. Australia 49,503 51,515 49,503 New Zealand 43,849 40,447 43,849 Canada 57,569 46,055 57,569 Brazil 8,252 5,793 8,252 Argentina 10,146 16,468 10,146 Central America 8,578 12,598 8,578 Other 8,183 3,886 8,183 Total 186,081 176,761 186,081 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 73,325 80,579 73,325 Canada 19,891 25,862 19,891 Mexico 17,318 10,333 17,318 Korea, Rep. 28,848 20,072 28,848 Caribbean 788 856 788 Other 9,619 10,661 9,619 Total 149,789 148,364 149,789 Cattle Imports Mexico 54,192 50,008 54,192 Canada 104,863 114,578 104,863 Over 700 lbs. 95,472 103,302 95,472 500-700 lbs. 6,290 7,191 6,290 Total 159,056 164,597 159,056 Cattle Exports Mexico 19,008 3,454 19,008 Canada 3,612 3,220 3,612 Total 22,687 16,832 22,687 Lamb Imports Australia 2,656 2,245 2,656 New Zealand 2,393 1,203 2,393 Total 5,050 3,449 5,050 Mutton Imports 3,073 1,521 3,073 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service: YTD imports under WTO --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4/14/96 4/06/97 % Change --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canada 129,696 155,348 1977.9% TRQ Countries 250,289 213,367 -1475.2% Australia 99,903 83,771 -1614.8% New Zealand 115,623 98,847 -1450.9% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-97 Feb-97 Jan - Jan - Jan '96 Jan '97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lbs. Canada 39,003 34,028 39,003 Denmark 9,969 8,443 9,969 Poland 487 249 487 Hungary 741 305 741 Netherlands 970 831 970 Other 2,926 1,823 2,926 Total 54,097 45,678 54,097 Pork Exports Japan 23,599 27,478 23,599 Canada 7,989 7,378 7,989 Mexico 4,211 5,912 4,211 Caribbean 602 473 602 Other 18,280 23,951 18,280 Total 54,681 65,193 54,681 Hog Imports Head Canada 266,610 219,454 266,610 Under 110 lb 71,748 50,791 71,748 Total 266,693 219,520 266,693 Hog Exports Total 4,714 13,770 4,714 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lbs. Japan 375 20,543 375 Mexico 4,918 17,126 4,918 Hong Kong 60 44,731 60 Singapore 5 4,638 5 Canada 4,051 5,297 4,051 Former USSR 2,384 130,375 2,384 Total 18,691 309,250 18,691 Turkey Exports Mexico 2,473 11,690 2,473 S. Korea 240 1,432 240 Hong Kong 940 1,094 940 Total 5,804 27,958 5,804 Shell Thousand dozen Egg Exports 6,963 9,072 6,963 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,487 11,163 10,309 11,527 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 7,822 7,757 7,743 7,732 Milk per cow - 21 States, lbs. 1,469 1,439 1,331 1,491 Production - U.S., Mil. lbs. 13,530 13,134 12,125 13,552 Milk prices: $/cwt All milk 13.70 13.40 13.50 13.60 Milk for fluid use 13.70 13.40 13.50 13.60 Manuf. grade milk 12.60 12.10 12.40 12.40 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.70 11.94 12.46 12.49 Wholesale prices: Cents/lb. Grade A butter 65.5 81.9 98.4 106.3 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 140.9 127.9 132.3 133.9 Barrels 135.2 123.7 127.5 126.5 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 110.1 113.9 114.9 115.8 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,063 1,676 1,641 1,738 Nonfat dry milk 2,074 1,963 1,903 1,888 Beginning stocks: Mil. lbs. Commercial butter 30.2 13.4 21.0 23.9 Commercial American cheese 354.5 379.6 381.4 380.4 Other cheese 128.5 107.3 117.3 115.4 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 80.0 71.1 74.8 71.2 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,055 4,704 4,975 4,995 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,882 5,753 5,929 5,836 All Government (mf. basis) 82 10 8 13 All Government (ss. basis) 122 7 8 8 USDA net removals: Mil. lbs. Butter 0.8 0.8 0.1 Cheese 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 Nonfat dry milk 7.9 10.0 15.0 16.4 All products (mf basis 2/) 10.7 29.4 32.8 14.9 All products (ss basis 2/) 102.1 127.0 187.0 200.2 --------------------------------------- Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Dairy product output: Mil. lbs. --------------------------------------- Butter 118.1 111.1 124.0 105.9 American cheese 270.8 284.0 278.9 269.6 Other-than-American cheese 305.9 344.3 317.2 306.4 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 85.7 74.9 85.2 90.3 All products (mf basis 2/) 7848.9 7928.3 8098.9 7669.9 Nonfat dry milk 93.0 101.3 97.3 91.3 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lbs. Butter 110.2 115.2 117.0 NA American cheese 262.7 277.2 279.8 NA Other-than-American cheese 318.0 386.0 322.5 NA Nonfat dry milk 80.6 73.3 78.1 NA All products (mf. basis) 12153.0 13050.0 12862.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 149.5 363.4 172.4 NA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL FORECASTS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 1996 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,900 7,058 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 Production, Million lbs. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,419 25,235 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,085 17,160 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,336 27,600 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,466 5,600 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,302 76,520 Eggs, mil. doz. 5,267 5,269 5,393 5,540 Milk 153,626 155,425 154,331 155,212 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 154,857 155,118 156,700 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,102 92 500 Per capita consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 67.0 67.4 67.7 66.7 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.1 47.3 Broilers 69.4 68.8 70.8 73.0 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.4 18.8 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.0 210.3 209.2 208.6 Eggs, number 238.7 235.8 237.2 241.6 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 65.2 65-70 Feeder steers, Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 61.1 68-73 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 30.3 37-39 Barrows & gilts, Iowa/Minn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53.4 55-58 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 61.2 59-63 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66.5 64-68 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 88.2 81-86 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.74 13.3-14.1 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.39 12.3-13.1 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,877 1,900 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,073 2,330 Pork exports 531 770 951 1,365 Pork imports 743 664 618 564 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,420 4,785 Turkey exports 281 348 438 467 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QUARTERLY 1994/95 FORECASTS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lbs. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,318 1,306 1,296 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.2 17.9 17.0 16.7 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.3 52.8 52.4 53.8 Eggs, number 59.4 58.4 58.3 59.7 Market Prices Ch. steers, Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer, Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Iowa/Minn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, Million lbs. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996. ------------------------------------------ QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 ------------------------------------------ Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, Million lbs. Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,687 39,848 38,764 38,819 Net removals 19 29 19 25 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.2 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers, Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer, Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows, S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Iowa/Minn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, Million lbs. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996. ------------------------------------------ QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 ------------------------------------------ Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,048 7,089 7,125 7,167 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 Production, Million lbs. Beef 6,110 6,550 6,500 6,075 Pork 4,210 4,125 4,275 4,550 Broilers 6,700 6,950 7,000 6,950 Turkeys 1,275 1,425 1,450 1,450 Total Meat 18,551 19,276 19,438 19,255 Eggs, mil doz. 1,350 1,365 1,400 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,812 40,300 38,100 38,000 Commercial use 38,200 39,900 39,300 39,300 Net removals 100 200 100 100 Consumption, Retail lbs. Beef 16.3 17.4 17.1 15.9 Pork 12.0 11.6 11.6 12.1 Broilers 18.0 18.8 18.5 17.7 Turkeys 3.9 4.1 4.5 6.3 Total Meat 50.9 52.6 52.4 52.7 Eggs, number 59.1 59.4 61.2 61.9 Market Prices Ch. steers, Nebr. 65-68 63-67 64-70 68-74 Fdr. steers, Ok Cty 68-71 68-72 67-73 71-77 Brk. Cows, S. Falls 31-33 36-38 40-44 39-43 Bar/gilt, Iowa/Minn. 50-52 54-58 59-63 56-60 Broiler, 12 City 59-61 58-62 60-66 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern 58-60 60-64 65-71 72-78 Eggs, New York 83-87 79-85 79-85 82-88 Milk, all at plants 13.2-13.7 12.9-13.6 13.0-14.0 14.2-15.2 Milk, M-W 12.1-12.5 11.8-12.5 12.2-13.2 13.1-14.1 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 440 455 510 495 Beef/veal imports 530 580 640 580 Pork exports 200 260 400 505 Pork imports 154 130 125 155 Broiler exports 1,035 1,125 1,275 1,350 Turkey exports 100 113 119 135 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996. END_OF_FILE