LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY February 20, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-38. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28 a year. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total red meat and poultry production in 1997 is expected to increase about 2 percent from 1996. Beef and pork production are expected to be about the same as in 1996, while poultry production increases about 5 percent. Cattle and hog prices are expected to be up modestly from 1996, while poultry prices will likely remain about unchanged. Food safety concerns, a weaker yen, and the Safeguard mechanisms in Japan have reduced beef and pork export forecasts below earlier expectations. Broiler export demand remains strong especially to the Newly Independent States (former USSR), Hong Kong/China, and Mexico. Cattle Herd Liquidation Phase Well Underway The situation in the cattle sector deteriorated over the past year as the cattle cycle shifted from expansion to liquidation. The shift generated increased beef production in the past couple of years and will keep output high through first-half 1997. Second-half 1997 will mark the end of heavy herd liquidation, resulting in less beef production and stronger prices. The cattle inventory cycle typically is 7 to 10 years from the low in one cycle to the low in the next. The current cycle began in 1990 from a low of 95.8 million head of cattle and calves on January 1. The cycle peaked in 1996 at 103.5 million head. The 1997 inventory was already down 2 percent from 1996 to 101.2 million head. Herd liquidation actually began in the fall of 1994 with year-to-year increases in cow slaughter that added to already large beef supplies. Prices for feeder cattle, the main output of cow calf producers, declined nearly $10 per cwt. in 1994 as feeder cattle supplies increased cyclically. Similarly, as slaughter increased, the price for cull cows declined to a low in the mid- $20's last fall, down sharply from the mid- to upper $40's in second-half 1993. The liquidation phase of the cattle cycle intensified in 1995/96. High grain prices, large cattle supplies, bad weather conditions, and poor feedlot returns made last year a particularly difficult one for cattle producers. A short grain crop in 1995/96 led to record high grain prices. The farm price of corn averaged above $4 a bushel in the second and third quarters of 1996, and sharply above the $2.50 average in 1995. This, along with a drought in much of the Central Plains and southwestern United States, and unusually wet conditions in much of the northern States, sharply reduced demand for a larger supply of feeder cattle, lowering feeder cattle prices. Prices for yearling feeder cattle averaged about $57 per cwt in the first half of 1996, down from $69 in 1995. The feeder cattle market is beginning to turn around. Corn prices declined this fall to below $3 a bushel while cattle prices, including calves, picked up because of lower output. In turn returns to livestock producers have increased. Prices for 500- to 550-pound feeder calves rose from the upper $50's per cwt in early spring 1996 to the mid- to upper $60's by late fall. Fed cattle prices, supported by marketings well below a year earlier, reached nearly $70 per cwt last fall, but declined to the mid-$60's in January as fed cattle marketings began to rise. Cattle-on-feed inventories continued to rise in January as feedlots remained profitable, but large placements since mid-1996 will have to be worked off before fed cattle prices can strengthen into the upper $60's. In addition, export demand remains sluggish due to food safety concerns in the Japanese food system. Beef exports are forecast to expand, but at a slower pace than was earlier anticipated. Feed Costs Remain Down; Forage Prices Rise The large 1996 U.S. grain harvest and potentially large Southern Hemisphere harvests this spring continue to hold grain prices well below a year earlier. Central Illinois corn prices averaged $3.53 a bushel in January 1996, but only $2.62 a bushel this year. The farm price of corn is expected to average from $2.55 to $2.85 a bushel, down sharply from the $3.25 average in 1995/96, but still above the 1994/95 average of $2.26. Expectations for the 1997 harvest will begin to come together in late March with the release of the Prospective Plantings report, the first indication of what farmers will plant. Producers are entering the spring planting season with favorable moisture conditions in nearly all areas, a sharp contrast with the dry conditions throughout the southern Great Plains and Southwest a year ago. The favorable moisture conditions will provide a good base to rebuild sharply reduced forage supplies. Rebuilding of grazing and hay stocks will be essential to ending the large cow slaughter and beginning to retain more heifers to stem the declining beef cow inventory. The quantity of hay demanded has been large this winter in many areas and hay prices continue on a record pace. The farm price of hay in January averaged $99.70 per ton, up over $20 from a year ago. Alfalfa hay rose $23 a ton, while the price of other hay was up $14. This has been a rough winter for producers, particularly those in the North Central States, where the start of the spring grazing season is still several months away. Forage stocks will remain in very tight supply and hay prices may see additional strength. Beef Herd Expansion Base Eroded A 24-percent increase in beef cow slaughter in 1996, a 4-percent increase in heifer slaughter, and 15 percent more heifers on feed January 1, 1997, have sharply curtailed the beef industry's ability to expand even as prices strengthen and forage supplies improve. The inventory of cows and heifers that had calved, on January 1 was down more than 2 percent, with beef cows down nearly 3 percent. Surprisingly, the number of beef heifers being retained for possible herd expansion was down only 2 percent, but down 6 percent from 2 years ago. Producers were apparently holding heifers at the same time that conditions forced them to cull beef cows. In addition, the number of other heifers was up nearly 3 percent. These numbers suggest that there are still relatively large numbers of beef heifers available to breed this spring and summer as has been the case over the past 4 years. There are also more heifers being held than in 1990-92 when the inventory was expanding. The beef cow herd is certainly going to decline in 1997; the uncertainty is by how much. This decline will further fuel the drop in calf crops over the next couple of years. The 1996 calf crop was 39.6 million head, down from the July estimate and down a little more than 600,000 head from 1995. However, the 1997 calf crop may drop 2 million head below 1996, and hold around 37.5 million head in 1998. Feeder Cattle Supplies Drop Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on January 1 were down 4 percent from a year earlier, representing the first year-to-year decline since 1993. A smaller calf crop, continued large calf slaughter, sharply reduced feeder cattle imports, and an 8-percent rise in feedlot placements in second-half 1996 led to a sharp turnaround in feeder cattle supplies for future beef production. Feeder cattle supplies will continue to tighten over the next couple of years. Even as stocker-feeder cattle prices rise and bid veal calves into feedlots, only an additional 500,000 to 600,000 calves would be available. Some additional feeder calves likely would be bid into the U.S. market from Mexico and Canada, but Mexican and Canadian cattle numbers are already down or are also declining. With the loss of grain transportation subsidies in Canada, the Canadian feedlot industry may be expanding to meet the growing demand from Canadas expanded slaughter capacity and the strong demand from the U.S. to maintain fed cattle slaughter. Bidding more calves out of veal slaughter, and importing additional feeder cattle will bring less than an additional million calves into feedlots. Feedlot inventories can also be enhanced in second-half 1997 by placing lighter-weight cattle on feed as long as feed costs remain down. However, in 1998 and most of 1999 feeder cattle supplies will be very tight and prices will remain strong. Large Fed Cattle Marketings Until Late Fall Shockingly large January placements more than offset lower than expected December placements and assured that fed cattle marketings will remain very large through early fall. Already large on-feed inventories will be further enhanced as the last of the wheat grazing cattle are removed from pasture in February through March. Placements in first-half 1997 will remain well above low year-earlier levels, but second-half placements will fall 7 to 10 percent below a year earlier. The largest year-over-year marketings will occur this winter and summer with marketings up 3 to 4 percent from a year earlier. Spring and fall quarter marketings are likely to be unchanged to up about 1 percent from 1996. However, strong marketings and rapidly declining placements in second-half 1997 will reduce cattle on feed inventories from a year-earlier in late fall through much of the next couple of years. Cow Beef Supplies Decline Beef cow slaughter is expected to drop below a year earlier in late winter and remain down sharply through the next couple of years. The sharp drop will dampen the impact of larger fed cattle marketings in the last three quarters of this year. Last years large cow slaughter, high grain costs, and increased heifers in the slaughter mix caused average dressed slaughter weights to drop 10 pounds from 1995, to 695 pounds. These were the lightest weights since 1993 when a series of storms and a wet spring sharply reduced feedlot performance and slaughter weights. This year, much reduced cow slaughter, a more normal steer-heifer slaughter mix, and lower-cost gains will raise commercial dressed carcass weights 10 to 15 pounds from 1996. For the year, total beef production will be about unchanged from 1996. Fed Prices To Be Held Down Until Fall Larger fed cattle inventories will hold prices near the mid-$60's per cwt in the first half of this year. Prices could begin to rise in late summer as future supply tightness becomes more apparent. By late fall fed cattle prices are likely to increase into the low-$70's, held down only by prospects for large supplies of competing meats at relatively lower prices. A resumption of first-half 1996 beef export demand would add even more strength and competition for declining supplies of high quality beef. Prices for yearling feeder cattle have already strengthened to the upper- $60's, the strongest since early 1995. However, yearling feeder cattle prices likely will be held down until late summer, as fed cattle prices remain under pressure of larger supplies. Tighter feeder cattle supplies should push prices well into the $70's per cwt by late 1997 and even higher into 1998. Feeder cattle prices are expected to rise over $10 per cwt this year, with prices moving toward $80 in 1998. A good forage year and low feed costs will lead to very strong demand for feeder calves both from feeders and grazers. Lower cattle inventories and good moisture conditions likely will encourage cow-calf operators to use excess forage capacities to carry calves to heavier weights before selling them. Similarly, cull boning Utility cow prices rose $6 to $8 per cwt since early January's mid-$20's. As cow slaughter moves well below a year earlier in late winter-early spring as the new grazing season begins, prices are likely to move into the upper $30's before moving into the low-$40's in the second half of the year. Cow slaughter is expected to remain down for the next couple of years as the beef sector sets the stage for yet another cattle cycle beginning about the turn of the century. With lower cow slaughter, beef imports of lower quality processing beef will begin to rise over the next couple of years, and the U.S. will remain a net importer until beef production begins to rise again early in the next century. Beef Trade to Increase in 1997 Beef exports rose over 20 percent in first-half 1996, with very strong demand from Japan. However, the outbreak of bovine Spongiform encephalitis (BSE) in Europe and E-coli problems in the Japanese food system caused beef exports to drop more than 12 percent from a year earlier in second-half 1996. E-coli problems in Japan appear to be abating and with beef tariff declines effective April 1, beef exports are likely to begin to strengthen, with strength similar to first-half 1996 resuming in the second half of this year. A very strong U.S. dollar relative to the yen could also slow the export pace. However, in late fall tightening fed beef supplies and higher prices may once again begin to slow export growth, not only in late 1997, but for the next couple of years. Following 4 years of declining beef imports, reduced cow slaughter is likely to generate rising demand for processing beef imports to meet domestic demand for hamburger at more favorable prices. Continued concerns in a number of countries over BSE in Europe may slow world demand for beef. Beef imports were up over 5 percent from a year earlier in second-half 1996, even with continued large U.S. cow slaughter, as alternative markets for processing beef were difficult to find. Moderating cow slaughter in early 1997 has already caused 90 percent lean beef trimmings to exceed $90, up sharply from last fall. Prices are likely to remain strong for the next couple of years. Retail Beef Prices To Begin Rise The retail price of Choice beef in 1996 averaged $2.80 a pound, down from $2.84 in 1995 as beef consumption rose to 67.7 pounds per person, the largest since 1990. Per capita beef supplies are expected to decline1 to 2 pounds in 1997, with retail prices for Choice beef averaging $2.85 a pound. The farm-to-retail price spread was already wide last fall with retail prices rising since September, and with live cattle prices declining sharply since November. Retail prices for Choice beef are likely to average in the low- to-mid-$2.80 range in first-half 1997 before rising toward the upper $2.80's in late 1997. Retail beef prices will be strongest in second-half 1997 and the strength will carry through 1998. Per capita supplies of poultry will rise about 4 percent in 1997, raising total red meat and poultry consumption about a half pound. Pork consumption will continue to decline this year. However, in 1998 and 1999, as beef supplies are certain to drop in unison with the declining cattle inventories, both pork and poultry supplies are likely to rise fairly substantially. Even though larger supplies of competing meats will hold down the beef price rise, prices for Choice beef in 1998 are likely to challenge the 1993 record of $2.93 cents a pound. Strong export demand could produce even more competition for a tight supply of high quality beef in the world market. Sheep Inventory Decline Continues Lamb and mutton production will decline again in 1997, assuring producers another year of attractive prices. However, producers must become increasingly concerned that along with the eroding production base and very strong prices in 1997 may come even more erosion in the demand base for lamb. Sheep and lamb inventories on January 1 were down 6 percent from a year earlier and down 11 percent from 1995. Both the breeding sheep inventory and lamb crop set historical lows. The 1996 lambing rate was 103 lambs per 100 ewes, down from 106 in 1995. Operations with sheep totaled 77,000 in 1996, down 5 percent from 1995 and down 12 percent from 1994. Nearly 92 percent of the operations had fewer than 100 sheep, and represented nearly 26 percent of the total sheep inventory. Large operations, those with over 5,000 head, represent only 0.1 percent of the operations, but 14 percent of the sheep. Lamb and mutton production declined nearly 7 percent in 1996 and likely will decline another 7 percent in 1997. Production is expected to decline only 3 to 4 percent in the first half of the year as production is aimed as much as possible toward the important spring religious holidays, beginning in late March. Sharper declines are likely in the second half with production likely to be down 8 to 12 percent. Sharp breeding flock reductions occurred in the Southwest, particularly Texas, in 1996 due to severe drought. Some additional ewe lambs are likely to be retained following the very strong prices in late 1996 through winter 1997 and much improved grazing prospects in 1997. Prices for Choice slaughter lambs in San Angelo averaged $85 per cwt in 1996 and likely will remain near this figure in 1997. Strongest prices, near $100 per cwt will occur in the first quarter but will likely erode somewhat through the year despite production declines after the peak demand period ends. Prices for large, muscular carcasses are likely to remain strong and premiums may increase for the more desirable lambs. Lamb imports are also expected to remain strong as high prices attract more loin and leg of lamb trade. These are by far the most desirable cuts, and alleviate the need to market the less desirable cuts at sometimes very large price discounts. Strong prices have reduced lamb and mutton exports to 6 million pounds in 1995 and 1996, down from 8 to 10 million pounds per year in the early 1990's. Hog Prices Weaken Although weekly hog slaughter in February has declined from late January levels, hog prices have weakened in contrast to the usual strengthening. The weaker export market, especially in Japan, and increased competition from beef and turkey are pressuring prices downward. However, hog prices in February are expected to average about $5 per cwt above last year. The U.S. exported 83 million pounds of pork in December, up 10 percent from the previous month. Important markets in December were Japan, which accounted for 34 percent of U.S. exports, and Russia, with a 25 percent share. Monthly exports to Japan since imposition of the Safeguard (SG) in July were about 10 percent behind 1995 levels, although total 1996 exports to Japan were 37 percent ahead of 1995. Trade in 1997 could be off, due to the SG, which will remain in place until July 1997, and the high yen/dollar exchange rate. The number of yen required to purchase dollars is expected to be significantly above 1996 levels, making U.S. pork products more expensive to Japanese buyers. Broiler Production Increasing Slowly Broiler production continues to increase slowly, showing little response to lower grain prices. Production increases during fourth-quarter 1996 and January 1997 were about 2 percent, substantially below the 5- percent growth level for annual production in 1996. Production is likely to be below a year ago for the first 2 weeks of February and with one less slaughter day, production may decline for the month. Production increases are expected to return in March as chick placements during January were 1-2 percent above a year ago, compared with increases of 0-1 percent seen in November and December. Increases in chick placements and production are expected to strengthen as the year progresses. Slower increases in production have helped keep prices stronger than a year ago for whole birds and breast meat. Prices are expected to be 5- 10 percent higher than a year ago in February as they also were in January. Prices for leg quarters have not held up as well due to changes in the export market. Wholesale leg quarter prices during January were more than 20 percent lower than a year ago and in the first half of February have strengthened relative to January and are about 10 percent below a year ago. Turkey Prices Lower In Early 1997 Wholesale whole turkey prices were about 8 percent below a year ago during January and have continued at lower levels in early February. Large stocks left over from last year are keeping prices relatively weak. Stocks at the end of 1996 were 21 percent higher for total turkey, with whole bird stocks 8 percent higher and other turkey stocks 34 percent higher. Lower prices have encouraged retailers to consider additional featuring of turkeys for Easter. Early trade reports are that whole frozen birds could be featured at 59-69 cents per pound. Turkey production in January appears to have been nearly unchanged from a year ago. A full year of negative net returns for whole birds in 1996 has probably moderated production growth. Egg Prices Weakening February egg prices are expected to be about 3 percent below a year ago but lower than in January when prices were 5 percent below a year ago. Prices are expected to strengthen in March with increased purchases for Easter, but prices are not expected to average above 90 cents per dozen as they did last year, because of larger production. Table egg production is expected to increase 3-4 percent with a 2- to 3- percent larger production flock and increased productivity per hen. High net returns during 1996 and decreasing feed costs in 1997 are expected to keep the table egg laying flock above 250 million hens throughout the year. Broiler Exports Top 4.4 Billion Pounds Exports of broilers and broiler products totaled 310 million pounds in December, 26 percent lower than the previous year. In 1996, exports were 4.4 billion pounds, 16 percent above a year earlier. Shipments to Latvia in 1996 totaled 150 million pounds, making it the fifth largest market for U.S. broilers. Broiler exports are forecast to increase an additional 12 percent in 1997 to 5.1 billion pounds, with most of the growth concentrated in the Newly Independent States, Hong Kong/China, and Mexico. Turkey Exports Slow Exports of turkey products slowed somewhat in the fourth quarter as shipments to Russia have been lighter than anticipated. Even with the fourth-quarter slowdown, shipments to Russia were up 54 percent in 1996. Somewhat offsetting the slowdown were strong exports to Mexico. For 1996, exports to Mexico were 168 million pounds, 5 percent lower than in 1994, but 23 percent higher than in 1995, when shipments were reduced by the peso devaluation. Turkey exports are forecast to increase to 495 million pounds in 1997. Other Chicken Exports Total 265 Million Pounds Shipments of other chicken products to Hong Kong, Japan, and Canada all continue to show strong gains over the previous year. Exports in December totaled 29 million pounds and were boosted by large shipments to Germany, Hong Kong, and Japan. Exports in 1997 are forecast to total 295 million pounds. Egg Product Exports Grow In December shipments of egg products totaled 8.8 million dozen, on a shell egg equivalent basis. In 1996, egg product exports totaled 139 million dozen, 35 percent higher than a year ago. Exports of shell eggs also rose with 1996 shipments 4 percent higher than the previous year. Smaller exports of shell eggs to the Middle East were more than offset by strong export growth to Hong Kong and Mexico. With increasing production and falling prices forecast for 1997, total egg exports are projected to rise to 280 million dozen. Milk Production Revised Downward Recent revisions to 1995-96 milk production data show output in both years to have been 0.2 billion pounds less than earlier thought. The revisions of the levels and patterns of monthly milk cow numbers and milk per cow were similarly small. The implications for the 1997 outlook are minor. The spring collapse in 1996 milk per cow began a little sooner than believed. The recovery was slightly stronger, with autumn milk per cow up substantially from the weak levels of a year earlier. However, the recovery does not imply more first-half 1997 output per cow because the January data showed that problems in a number of States had already eroded that strength. Autumn milk cow numbers fell more than thought. The drop, after a year of relatively high returns, may indicate somewhat larger first-half declines in cow numbers, as evidenced by January's sharper decline from a year earlier. However, the change in projected milk cow numbers is small. Starting with the January data, monthly data for Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee are no longer available, while Arizona has been added as a monthly State. Year-to-year changes in milk production for the 22 States generally were close to the U. S. changes. This also appears to be the case for the 20-State milk per cow figure. However, declines in milk cow numbers were 0.4 to 0.5 percent larger for the U.S. as a whole than in the 20 States during each quarter of 1996. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller(Dairy),LaVerne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,667 8,534 9,003 8,943 Net placements 1,263 1,887 1,355 1,578 Marketings 1,626 1,418 1,415 1,738 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 570,863 526,525 573,500 582,618 Chicks hatched (000)/2 686,359 631,292 694,811 700,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,538 48,394 50,070 50,935 Pullets placed (000) 5,538 6,508 5,947 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,684 3,856 4,129 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 35,618 31,668 34,424 34,055 Poults placed (000) 27,391 23,830 27,119 27,130 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 452 456 474 470 Table egg layers, (000)/1 246,166 248,972 250,645 250,473 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.2 72.2 73.6 72.9 Chicks hatched (000) 31,547 31,495 33,161 33,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,456 5,871 8,072 9,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 63.00 66.97 62.84 60.07 Selling price 63.00 66.30 65.07 64.25 Net margin -0.67 2.23 4.18 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 39.90 49.77 52.73 49.50 Selling price 46.51 54.83 53.42 51.00 Net margin 6.61 5.06 0.69 1.50 Broiler Wholesale cost 53.58 52.61 52.24 52.08 Wholesale price 55.31 63.50 61.99 60.00 Net margin 1.73 10.89 9.75 7.92 Turkey Wholesale cost 67.21 71.72 67.82 67.25 Wholesale price 65.04 66.38 59.00 58.50 Net margin -2.17 -5.34 -8.82 -8.75 Egg Wholesale cost 75.85 71.16 70.88 70.95 Wholesale price 89.18 106.38 89.62 88.00 Net margin 13.33 35.22 18.74 17.05 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 63.00 66.30 65.07 64.25 Nebraska Direct 62.76 67.46 65.51 64.90 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 37.56 27.50 28.15 33.30 Utility boning 33.06 25.74 27.77 32.25 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 62.31 69.79 75.08 80.75 600-650 lb. 58.94 66.04 70.92 71.85 750-800 lb. 58.41 67.08 69.72 69.65 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 54.19 58.67 64.68 69.35 700-750 lb. 54.09 61.21 65.50 64.30 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 46.54 55.31 53.09 51.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 46.51 54.83 53.42 51.00 Sows 6 Markets 34.55 49.82 48.29 46.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 34.46 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 85.63 88.88 94.63 100.75 Ewes, Good 41.88 46.31 50.06 50.65 Feeder lambs, Choice 95.63 106.25 109.00 113.65 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.71 2.62 2.62 2.66 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.59 4.65 4.52 4.44 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 228.29 250.64 249.22 261.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 84.60 102.00 106.00 88.20 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 79.20 95.90 99.70 81.20 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 98.86 108.03 101.90 97.00 Choice 1-3 700-850# 97.87 106.55 100.79 96.00 Select 1-3 700-850# 93.90 94.81 95.47 92.60 Cutter Cow 61.48 52.54 53.73 56.85 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 83.75 81.81 84.86 88.70 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 87.13 83.81 84.85 91.25 Hide & offal value 8.05 9.57 9.56 9.49 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 160.88 152.13 153.58 167.85 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 64.39 74.51 71.33 69.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 116.43 120.45 112.50 108.75 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 56.33 70.07 72.04 66.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 56.84 65.90 66.49 63.25 Trimmings, 72% fresh 41.05 63.75 58.95 53.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 175.00 168.97 182.10 189.00 55-65 lb., Choice 171.25 168.97 182.10 189.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 55.31 63.50 61.99 60.00 Georgia dock 55.59 64.29 63.05 61.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 152.48 156.40 169.20 168.00 Breast, Ribs on 77.74 75.58 84.68 87.00 Legs, whole 56.69 57.28 52.29 51.00 Leg quarters 38.97 37.74 33.01 34.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 64.70 63.36 58.76 57.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.65 70.05 59.71 58.00 Drumsticks 25.90 35.30 34.82 35.00 Wings, full cut 32.04 46.00 42.34 39.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 89.18 106.38 89.62 88.00 New York 85.70 100.90 86.30 82.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 281.5 285.9 287.3 281.7 Beef - All Fresh 257.7 251.2 255.7 256.2 Ground Beef 135.0 140.3 142.4 140.9 Rib roast 503.9 522.2 509.1 529.6 T-bone steak 567.9 574.3 587.4 598.1 Pork 201.1 231.6 231.2 232.7 Bacon 213.8 265.6 264.2 266.4 Chops 334.7 342.1 344.1 346.5 Picnic 118.8 131.4 131.3 133.9 Chicken - Composite 146.8 151.5 154.2 152.4 Whole, fresh 94.1 100.3 100.2 101.6 Breast - bone in 196.7 204.9 209.3 202.8 Leg quarter 121.8 123.5 125.6 126.5 Turkey; whole frozen 103.5 98.1 102.0 106.3 Eggs, Grade A, Large 115.5 113.9 130.8 114.8 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 154.4 158.6 158.6 159.1 All food 151.0 155.9 156.3 156.5 All meat 137.6 144.6 144.4 144.5 Beef & veal 135.0 137.3 137.8 137.5 Pork 139.4 156.0 155.4 155.7 Poultry 148.0 157.3 157.8 158.2 Dairy Products 136.3 149.3 148.6 147.8 Fluid milk & cream 136.8 150.5 149.9 148.9 Manufactured products 136.5 148.8 147.9 147.4 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 22.8 28.9 26.6 21.7 Wholesale to retail 125.3 105.9 122.0 125.8 Farmers share (%) 47.0 53.0 48.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 35.0 37.1 39.1 35.2 Wholesale to retail 99.0 107.7 105.0 113.1 Farmers share (%) 33.0 37.0 38.0 36.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 83.3 84.6 92.1 88.8 Retail to consumer Turkey 30.4 18.0 26.6 38.3 Eggs 24.7 12.4 25.4 26.2 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Feb'96 Feb'97 Dec'96 Jan'97/* Feb'97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 4,268 4,172 1,950 2,226 1,946 Veal 60 58 31 30 28 Pork 2,967 2,810 1,428 1,490 1,320 Lamb 47 41 22 20 21 Total red meat 7,342 7,081 3,431 3,766 3,315 Broilers 4,455 4,400 2,071 2,300 2,100 Other chicken 86 84 35 44 40 Turkeys 845 830 409 420 410 Total poultry 5,386 5,314 2,515 2,764 2,550 Total meat & poultry 12,728 12,395 5,946 6,530 5,865 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 6,066 6,094 2,875 3,253 2,841 Steers 2,976 2,848 1,284 1,501 1,347 Heifers 1,794 1,958 887 1,037 921 Beef Cows 637 625 379 364 261 Dairy Cows 553 561 275 300 261 Bulls and stags 106 102 50 51 51 Calves 286 282 153 147 135 Sheep 727 629 348 306 323 Hogs 15,952 14,925 7,621 7,925 7,000 Barrows & gilts 15,225 14,325 7,318 7,610 6,715 Sows 609 510 256 270 240 Broilers 1,262,200 1,835,000 587,028 625,000 590,000 Turkeys 44,377 66,500 21,864 22,000 21,500 Feb'96 Nov'96 Dec'96 Jan'97/* Feb'97/* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 707 687 685 689 693 Calves 212 209 207 210 211 Sheep 66 63 65 65 66 Hogs 186 189 189 188 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 367.9 295.5 288.1 284.4 NA Pork 382.2 330.3 316.3 312.1 NA Bellies 46.5 16.2 30.9 38.0 NA Hams 59.5 80.4 48.7 33.3 NA Total chicken 668.5 592.0 574.6 643.0 NA Turkey 339.2 659.2 347.8 328.3 NA Frozen eggs 15.6 12.7 10.4 10.2 NA /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan - Jan - Dec-95 Dec-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 47,308 44,136 670,440 544,996 New Zealand 19,235 33,468 579,335 503,657 Canada 48,391 49,652 445,614 585,751 Brazil 6,640 5,198 67,509 86,901 Argentina 9,764 11,292 172,220 153,398 Central America 8,931 11,861 144,511 111,107 Other 10,661 11,941 23,843 86,363 Total 150,929 167,546 2,103,472 2,072,173 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 71,297 58,933 1,004,452 1,015,778 Canada 25,944 23,830 311,982 295,424 Mexico 15,561 21,341 92,302 172,246 Korea, Rep. 16,924 19,031 272,176 203,796 Caribbean 1,300 1,661 12,360 12,924 Other 20,598 16,743 127,542 178,049 Total 151,625 141,539 1,820,813 1,878,217 Cattle Imports Mexico 116,058 93,729 1,653,408 456,246 Canada 71,539 84,667 1,132,691 1,509,136 Over 700 lbs. 61,829 77,513 1,063,720 1,374,583 500-700 lbs. 4,937 4,197 14,641 74,293 Total 187,597 178,421 2,786,245 1,965,448 Cattle Exports Mexico 11,883 12,979 14,641 115,249 Canada 5,537 5,069 67,442 40,722 Total 18,099 18,343 94,548 174,307 Lamb Imports Australia 2,504 2,471 21,568 26,423 New Zealand 1,421 1,744 21,106 23,970 Total 3,925 4,215 43,284 50,701 Mutton Imports 2,200 1,751 20,257 21,751 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 2/18/96 2/09/97 % Chg Canada 56,153 59,927 672.1% TRQ Countries 112,276 93,014 -1715.6% Australia 57,990 42,906 -2601.1% New Zealand 38,160 38,260 26.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan - Jan - Dec-95 Dec-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 39,484 38,231 453,925 437,397 Denmark 9,050 10,236 144,516 122,211 Poland 1,239 793 11,984 10,525 Hungary 745 730 10,608 8,761 Netherlands 352 677 10,671 8,479 Other 3,324 2,606 32,258 31,511 Total 54,194 53,272 663,963 618,884 Pork Exports Japan 29,726 28,271 364,676 500,319 Canada 6,339 9,587 57,771 94,374 Mexico 5,066 10,555 59,855 55,868 Caribbean 1,204 1,769 11,120 11,831 Other 33,225 32,996 277,286 289,242 Total 75,560 83,178 770,707 951,635 Hog Imports Head Canada 225,884 247,451 1,747,160 2,778,741 Under 110 lb 50,064 60,929 651,096 766,974 Total 225,940 247,595 1,750,138 2,779,175 Hog Exports Total 5,737 5,483 16,059 55,883 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 18,894 10,199 252,573 243,015 Mexico 16,718 22,154 203,634 218,203 Hong Kong 77,506 70,637 973,128 962,882 Singapore 3,393 2,816 52,362 49,655 Canada 6,573 7,457 75,988 74,813 Former USSR 223,059 143,508 1,484,190 1,881,273 Total 438,121 310,047 3,894,072 4,420,144 Turkey Exports Mexico 17,458 25,070 136,365 167,694 S. Korea 1,998 1,587 35,153 22,665 Hong Kong 2,137 2,382 19,321 25,487 Total 37,185 45,319 348,012 437,793 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 10,142 8,293 109,004 113,837 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,100 10,493 11,006 11,055 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 7,846 7,775 7,765 7,755 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,415 1,350 1,417 1,426 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,082 12,318 12,921 13,029 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 14.00 15.00 14.10 13.60 Milk for fluid use 14.00 15.10 14.20 13.70 Manuf. grade milk 12.70 12.50 11.90 12.00 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.73 11.61 11.34 11.94 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 75.4 74.1 71.8 81.9 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 139.3 133.9 126.0 127.9 Barrels 133.5 121.5 115.6 123.7 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 114.8 126.6 120.5 113.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,372 1,513 1,533 1,676 Nonfat dry milk 2,222 1,930 1,937 1,963 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 15.8 20.3 17.4 13.8 Commercial American cheese 306.6 370.1 369.5 378.9 Other cheese 105.3 115.1 110.5 100.3 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 70.6 47.2 49.2 71.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,099 4,806 4,684 4,646 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,037 5,444 5,394 5,669 All Government (mf. basis) 69 10 9 10 All Government (ss. basis) 172 9 9 7 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 Nonfat dry milk 2.5 3.5 1.9 2.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 3.6 5.5 2.7 2.0 All products (ss basis 2/) 32.0 45.6 24.1 31.3 Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 112.4 95.5 95.1 110.1 American cheese 279.9 265.3 260.8 284.3 Other-than-American cheese 338.5 342.9 326.1 337.9 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 69.6 90.9 73.7 76.1 All products (mf basis 2/) 7795.8 7676.0 7235.0 7868.4 Nonfat dry milk 101.8 65.8 75.4 100.6 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 108.2 96.2 98.2 NA American cheese 272.1 262.4 274.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 367.3 382.4 366.9 NA Nonfat dry milk 74.8 66.1 69.7 NA All products (mf. basis) 12790.0 12933.0 12792.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 342.6 308.0 333.8 NA Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,900 7,058 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,419 25,375 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,080 17,050 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,294 28,000 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,464 5,625 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,265 76,985 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,396 5,575 Milk 153,626 155,425 154,268 155,500 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 154,857 155,118 156,800 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,102 81 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.6 66.2 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.2 47.9 Broilers 69.4 68.8 70.3 73.5 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.5 19.0 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.0 210.3 208.8 209.4 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 236.7 242.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 65.2 65-69 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 61.1 69-73 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 30.3 36-39 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53.4 54-57 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 61.2 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66.5 65-70 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 88.2 81-86 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.40 13.3-14.1 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.39 12.4-13.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,872 2,045 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,079 2,125 Pork exports 531 770 924 1,110 Pork imports 743 664 620 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,523 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 437 495 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.2 17.9 17.0 16.7 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.3 52.8 52.4 53.8 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 6,966 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,391 6,084 Pork 4,388 4,103 4,141 4,448 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,592 6,486 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,411 1,401 Total Meat 18,848 18,973 18,767 18,677 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,323 1,354 1,385 Milk (mf basis) 39,042 39,621 37,658 37,947 Commercial use 37,743 39,829 38,771 38,775 Net removals 19 29 19 14 Consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.9 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 13.0 Broilers 17.6 18.1 18.0 16.6 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 52.1 52.3 52.6 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 59.3 60.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 440 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 490 Pork exports 221 313 180 210 Pork imports 144 155 154 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,270 Turkey exports 96 93 124 124 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,008 7,044 7,079 7,119 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,300 6,500 6,500 6,075 Pork 4,200 4,100 4,350 4,400 Broilers 6,900 7,050 7,050 7,000 Turkeys 1,300 1,425 1,450 1,450 Total Meat 18,962 19,301 19,564 19,158 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 1,375 1,400 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,600 40,300 38,300 38,300 Commercial use 38,100 39,800 39,400 39,500 Net removals 100 200 200 100 Consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.7 17.0 16.9 15.6 Pork 12.0 11.6 12.0 12.3 Broilers 18.6 18.7 18.5 17.7 Turkeys 4.1 4.1 4.5 6.3 Total Meat 52.2 52.1 52.5 52.6 Eggs, number 60.0 59.7 61.1 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 64-66 63-67 64-70 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69-71 68-72 67-73 71-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 29-31 36-38 40-44 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 53-55 54-58 54-58 54-58 Broiler,12 City 58-60 58-62 60-64 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 62-66 66-72 74-80 Eggs, New York 83-87 79-85 79-85 82-88 Milk, all at plant 12.8-13.3 13.0-13.7 13.2-14.2 14.2-15.2 Milk, M-W 11.9-12.4 12.1-12.8 12.4-13.4 13.2-14.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 420 525 530 570 Beef/veal imports 525 525 550 525 Pork exports 215 260 355 280 Pork imports 154 154 142 155 Broiler exports 1,150 1,225 1,275 1,425 Turkey exports 115 120 125 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Total heifers entering cow herd January-June and July-December Jan 1 Intended Total 1/ July 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd ing tory Jan 1 Jan-Jun Jan-Jun -------------------- 1,000 head --------------------- --- Percent --- 1986 44,869 9,874 4,340 45,000 4,471 45.3 1987 44,412 9,519 3,699 44,400 3,687 38.7 1988 43,494 9,371 3,468 43,900 3,874 41.3 1989 42,625 9,442 3,517 43,000 3,892 41.2 1990 42,469 9,454 3,347 42,900 3,778 40.0 1991 42,485 9,536 3,229 43,200 3,944 41.4 1992 42,735 9,774 3,271 43,600 4,136 42.3 1993 43,023 10,268 3,395 44,600 4,972 48.4 1994 44,178 10,509 3,294 45,100 4,216 40.1 1995 44,643 10,616 3,460 45,600 4,417 41.6 1996 44,644 10,283 3,912 45,000 4,268 41.5 1997 43,561 10,088 Intended Total 2/ Entering Heifers Percent herd re- disap- cow in- entering entering Year placements pearance ventory the herd July 1 Jul-Dec following Jul-Dec year ------------------------- 1,000 head --------------- Percent 1986 9,500 4,294 44,412 3,706 39 1987 9,400 3,577 43,494 2,671 28 1988 9,200 3,522 42,625 2,247 24 1989 9,200 3,438 42,469 2,907 32 1990 9,100 3,210 42,485 2,795 31 1991 9,300 3,031 42,735 2,566 28 1992 9,700 3,216 43,023 2,639 27 1993 9,700 3,336 44,178 2,914 30 1994 9,900 3,310 44,643 2,853 29 1995 9,600 3,490 44,644 2,534 26 1996 9,200 4,031 43,561 2,592 28 1997 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commercial cow slaughter. 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commmercial cow slaughter Beef heifers entering cow herd January-June and July-December Jan 1 Intended Total 1/ July 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering entering Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd tory Jan 1 Jan-Jun Jan-Jun - - 1,000 head- - Percent 1992 33,007 5,643 1,695 33,900 2,588 45.9 1993 33,365 6,092 1,767 34,900 3,302 54.2 1994 34,650 6,365 1,744 35,600 2,694 42.3 1995 35,156 6,475 1,907 36,100 2,851 44.0 1996 35,228 6,179 2,302 35,600 2,674 43.3 1997 34,280 6,051 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commercial cow slaughter. 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commmercial cow slaughter Jan 1 Heifers Intended Total 2/ entering entering Percent herd re- disap- cow in- the herd entering Year placements pearance ventory Jul-Dec July 1 Jul-Dec following year --------------------- 1,000 head ------------------ Percent 1992 5,600 1,681 33,365 1,146 20.5 1993 5,700 1,759 34,650 1,509 26.5 1994 5,900 1,797 35,156 1,353 22.9 1995 5,700 1,976 35,228 1,104 19.4 1996 5,500 2,390 34,280 1,070 19.5 1997 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commercial cow slaughter. 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commmercial cow slaughter. January 1 cattle inventory Class Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1,000 head Cattle and calves 96,740 95,816 96,393 97,556 99,176 Cows and heifers that have calved 42,625 42,469 42,485 42,735 43,023 Beef cows 32,488 32,454 32,520 33,007 33,365 Milk cows 10,138 10,015 9,966 9,728 9,658 Heifers 500 lb+ 17,073 17,257 17,638 17,822 18,818 For beef cow replacement 5,325 5,283 5,443 5,643 6,092 For milk cow replacement 4,117 4,171 4,093 4,131 4,176 Other heifers 7,631 7,803 8,102 8,048 8,550 Steers 500 lb+ 15,431 15,512 15,967 16,424 16,940 Bulls 500 lb+ 2,150 2,160 2,196 2,239 2,278 Calves under 500 lbs 19,461 18,418 18,107 18,336 18,117 Calf crop: Jan-June 28,300 28,200 28,400 28,500 28,800 Jul-Dec 10,517 10,413 10,183 10,433 10,648 Class 1994 1995 1996 1997 Cattle and calves 100,988 102,755 103,487 101,209 Cows and heifers that have calved 44,178 44,643 44,644 43,561 Beef cows 34,650 35,156 35,228 34,280 Milk cows 9,528 9,487 9,416 9,281 Heifers 500 lb+ 19,577 19,891 20,232 20,306 For beef cow replacement 6,365 6,475 6,179 6,051 For milk cow replacement 4,144 4,141 4,104 4,037 Other heifers 9,068 9,275 9,949 10,219 Steers 500 lb+ 17,042 17,463 17,732 17,315 Bulls 500 lb+ 2,307 2,390 2,392 2,339 Calves under 500 lbs 17,884 18,369 18,488 17,688 Calf crop: Jan-June 29,300 29,500 29,200 Jul-Dec 10,759 10,711 10,386 Feeder cattle supply outside feedlots -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from Item 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Prev. Yr. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head Percent On farms Jan 1: Calves < 500 lbs 18117 17884 18369 18488 17688 -4.3 Steers over 500 l 16940 17042 17463 17732 17315 -2.4 Heifers over 500 8550 9068 9275 9949 10219 2.7 Total 43607 43994 45107 46169 45222 -2.1 On feed Jan 1 1/: 12698.1 12931.55 12364.19 12863 13102 1.9 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on Jan 1 30908.9 31062.45 32742.81 33306 32120 -3.6 Slaughter Jan-Mar Calves 321.2 311.9 350.5 431.4 23.1 Steers & heife 6221 6495 6662 7082 6.3 Total 6542.2 6806.9 7012.5 7513.4 7.1 On feed Apr 1 1/: 12206.3 12441.44 12467.33 12291.1 -1.4 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on April 24858.5 24745.66 25627.17 26364.5 2.9 On farms July 1: Calves < 500 lbs 30300 31300 32000 31700 -0.9 Steers over 500 l 14900 15200 15400 15100 -1.9 Heifers over 500 7300 7500 8000 8100 1.3 Total 52500 54000 55400 54900 -0.9 On feed July 1 1/11038.58 10577.61 11141.72 11200 0.5 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on July 41461.42 43422.39 44258.28 43700 -1.3 Slaughter Jul-Sep Calves 288.8 312.4 360.9 468.7 29.9 Steers & heife 7017 7269 7657 7170 -6.4 Total 7305.8 7581.4 8017.9 7638.7 -4.7 On feed Oct 1 1/:11239.03 10728.95 10962.39 10882 -0.7 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on Oct 133955.17 35689.65 36419.71 36379.3 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated U.S. steers and heifers. 2/ Not including heifers for cow replacement. Commercial calf slaughter and production ------------------------------------------------ Year Dressed Slaughter weight Production ------------------------------------------------ 1,000 Million head Pounds pounds 1992 I 367 218 80 II 325 231 75 III 329 216 71 IV 351 208 73 Year 1372 218 299 1993 I 322 214 69 II 277 227 63 III 288 229 66 IV 308 224 69 Year 1195 223 267 1994 I 312 228 71 II 288 236 68 III 312 218 68 IV 357 213 76 Year 1269 223 283 1995 I 350 223 78 II 333 222 74 III 361 211 76 IV 386 207 80 Year 1430 215 308 1996 I 432 208 90 II 404 215 87 III 469 203 95 IV 463 205 95 ----------------------------------------------- Calf slaughter by class under Federal inspection ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bob veal Fed Other Year 150 lb & 150 to 400 lb over Total below Formula Nonformula 400 lb ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head 1990 657 851 99 135 1743 1991 466 790 66 86 1408 1992 423 760 62 82 1328 1993 324 725 45 66 1159 1994 416 730 37 54 1237 1995 564 740 35 54 1393 1996 865 748 32 72 1718 I 203 194 9 13 420 II 185 188 8 16 397 III 252 172 8 21 454 IV 226 193 7 21 447 1996 Jan. 67 65 3 5 140 Feb. 68 64 3 4 139 Mar. 69 65 3 4 141 Apr. 57 63 3 5 128 May 61 66 3 5 134 Jun. 67 60 2 7 136 Jul. 90 55 3 7 156 Aug. 87 56 3 8 153 Sep. 75 62 2 6 145 Oct. 76 73 2 7 159 Nov. 74 56 2 8 139 Dec. 75 64 2 7 149 7-State cattle on feed, net placements, marketings, and other disappearance in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year On Other dis-e feed Placement Marketing appearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % head Chg head Chg head Chg head Chg 1994 Jan. 8,256 2.2 1,416 2.8 1,481 5.9 52 -52.7 Feb. 8,139 2.4 1,256 16.7 1,357 7.6 57 -37.4 Mar. 7,981 4.0 1,518 5.3 1,467 2.2 72 -17.2 1st Q 4,190 4,305 181 Apr. 7,960 4.9 1,310 8.1 1,430 1.3 68 -31.3 May 7,772 6.6 1,359 -21.0 1,542 0.8 78 -32.2 June 7,511 2.0 1,113 -15.2 1,632 3.4 82 -1.2 2nd Q 3,782 4,604 228 July 6,910 -1.5 1,520 7.4 1,550 -0.3 39 -41.8 Aug. 6,841 0.5 1,761 0.5 1,602 5.6 51 -20.3 Sept. 6,949 -0.5 1,915 -4.3 1,525 2.3 44 -20.0 3rd Q 5,196 4,677 134 Oct. 7,295 -1.9 2,244 0.0 1,504 7.9 47 -29.9 Nov. 7,988 -2.8 1,642 2.0 1,370 3.6 62 -30.3 Dec. 8,198 -2.6 1,345 10.7 1,432 9.7 80 11.1 4th Q 5,231 4,306 189 Annua 18,399 17,892 732 1995 Jan. 8,031 -2.7 1,631 15.2 1,484 0.2 59 13.5 Feb. 8,119 -0.2 1,532 22.0 1,372 1.1 52 -8.8 Mar. 8,227 3.1 1,681 10.7 1,513 3.1 67 -6.9 1st Q 4,844 4,369 178 Apr. 8,328 4.6 1,403 7.1 1,437 0.5 61 -10.3 May 8,233 5.9 1,673 23.1 1,667 8.1 57 -26.9 June 8,182 8.9 1,356 21.8 1,754 7.5 50 -39.0 2nd Q 4,432 4,858 168 July 7,734 11.9 1,404 -7.6 1,698 9.5 49 25.6 Aug. 7,391 8.0 1,653 -6.1 1,815 13.3 40 -21.6 Sept. 7,189 3.5 2,173 13.5 1,594 4.5 46 4.5 3rd Q 5,230 5,107 135 Oct. 7,722 5.9 2,278 1.5 1,529 1.7 51 8.5 Nov. 8,420 5.4 1,804 9.9 1,478 7.9 61 -1.6 Dec. 8,685 5.9 1,446 7.5 1,412 -1.4 52 -35.0 4th Q 5,528 4,419 164 Annua 20,034 18,753 645 1996 Jan. 8,667 7.9 1,312 -19.6 1,626 9.6 49 -16.9 Feb. 8,304 2.3 1,441 -5.9 1,541 12.3 52 Mar. 8,152 -0.9 1,666 -0.9 1,476 -2.4 56 -16.4 1st Q 4,419 4,643 157 Apr. 8,286 -0.5 1,150 -18.0 1,613 12.2 65 6.6 May 7,758 -5.8 1,300 -22.3 1,747 4.8 58 1.8 June 7,253 -11.4 1,068 -21.2 1,696 -3.3 47 -6.0 2nd Q 3,518 5,056 170 July 6,578 -14.9 1,483 5.6 1,678 -1.2 46 -6.1 Aug. 6,337 -14.3 1,965 18.9 1,653 -8.9 37 -7.5 Sept. 6,612 -8.0 2,267 4.3 1,342 -15.8 51 10.9 3rd Q 5,715 4,673 134 Oct. 7,486 -3.1 2,536 11.3 1,431 -6.4 57 11.8 Nov. 8,534 1.4 1,953 8.3 1,418 -4.1 66 8.2 Dec. 9,003 3.7 1,423 -1.6 1,415 0.2 68 30.8 4th Q 5,912 4,264 191 1997 Jan. 8,943 3.2 1,643 25.2 1,738 6.9 65 32.7 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Document No. 11505 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australi 51515 24413 38590 46557 42904 31018 59520 New Zeal 40447 51538 57532 60923 55746 53486 49900 Canada 46055 44008 45609 42376 44263 51201 51103 Brazil 5793 4471 8014 7936 8232 5515 9323 Argentin 16468 9718 14944 12466 13330 10419 10789 Central A 12598 12516 11038 7219 6673 5124 5880 Other 3886 3511 4879 6691 6363 7283 9074 Total 176761 150175 180607 184169 177512 164047 195589 Beef & Veal Export Japan 80579 94516 90923 121057 105779 88239 79934 Canada 25862 21735 24034 26001 26432 27647 27151 Mexico 10333 10160 9560 11650 13254 14321 16082 Korea, R 20072 13641 13105 29863 21641 11423 12125 Caribbean 856 941 1229 825 1286 1022 977 Other 10661 13898 10365 17114 15203 11349 11611 Total 148364 154891 149215 206510 183596 154000 147880 Cattle Imports Mexico 50008 50438 58555 33869 18612 8382 5869 Canada 114578 182168 149868 134368 152867 118961 117522 Ove 103302 156126 127688 123591 143022 112791 112069 440 7191 22070 16459 3576 2996 2049 1006 Total 164597 232628 208423 168237 171479 127343 123395 Cattle Exports Mexico 3454 4522 4656 6699 10834 11454 10842 Canada 3220 2573 2993 3692 3433 3160 2732 Total 16832 9222 7852 10729 15838 16229 14012 Lamb Imports Australi 2245 2079 3154 1957 2006 2155 1844 New Zeal 1203 1779 2627 2159 2599 1896 2116 Total 3449 4020 5820 4117 4696 4052 3960 Mutton Imports Total 1521 1629 2182 2047 1768 1458 2477 Lamb and mutton exports Total 494 561 477 575 468 226 518 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Beef & Veal Imports Australi 59808 49761 49465 47308 44136 New Zeal 40585 19753 21043 19235 33468 Canada 55568 50342 57183 48391 49652 Brazil 10874 5491 9416 6640 5198 Argentin 12491 18834 12884 9764 11292 Central A 9624 10230 9413 8931 11861 Other 8600 7630 5844 10661 11941 Total 197550 162041 165248 150929 167546 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 78167 67354 79001 71297 58933 Canada 21895 21757 23137 25944 23830 Mexico 16862 16607 16514 15561 21341 Korea, R 14229 16052 15689 16924 19031 Caribbean 835 654 1337 1300 1661 Other 19729 14399 16379 20598 16743 Total 151717 136823 152058 151625 141539 Cattle Imports Mexico 4783 3594 12349 116058 93729 Canada 136421 123436 122741 71539 84667 Ove 129892 115526 111234 61829 77513 440 1605 2878 5329 4937 4197 Total 141204 127034 135090 187597 178421 Cattle Exports Mexico 12052 11610 14264 11883 12979 Canada 2203 2264 3846 5537 5069 Total 14324 14421 18406 18099 18343 Lamb Imports Australi 1903 1718 2389 2504 2471 New Zeal 2865 1884 1676 1421 1744 Total 4768 3611 4067 3925 4215 Mutton Imports Total 2121 1246 1352 2200 1751 Lamb and mutton exports Total 432 378 543 327 679 Sheep and lamb slaughter 1/ and production -------------------------------------------------------- Commercial Dressed Produc- Year Lambs Sheep Total weight tion -------------------------------------------------------- Million ------ 1,000 head ---- lb. lb. 1992 I 1344 73 1417 64.22018 91 II 1264 86 1350 62.96296 85 III 1270 82 1352 60.65089 82 IV 1300 78 1378 61.6836 85 Year 5178 319 5497 62.39767 343 1993 I 1215 62 1277 64.213 82 II 1294 78 1372 64.13994 88 III 1187 81 1268 63.09148 80 IV 1182 85 1267 62.35201 79 Year 4878 306 5184 63.46451 329 1994 I 1279 64 1343 64.03574 86 II 1167 80 1247 63.35204 79 III 1039 79 1118 59.03399 66 IV 1150 81 1231 59.30138 73 Year 4635 304 4939 61.55092 304 1995 I 1162 67 1229 63.46623 78 II 1095 76 1171 61.48591 72 III 968 72 1040 60.57692 63 IV 1047 72 1119 60.76854 68 Year 4272 287 4559 61.63632 281 1996 I 1075 66 1141 64.85539 74 II 924 76 1000 64 64 III 911 72 983 61.03764 60 IV 995 66 1061 62.20547 66 Year 3905 280 4185 63.08244 264 1/ Commercial slaughter by class estimated 2/ Forecast Sheep and lamb prices at San Angelo ------------------------------------ Slaughter Feeder Stock Year lamb lamb ewe ------------------------------------ - $/cwt 1992 I 60.93 66.20 40.79 II 69.34 66.18 32.02 III 54.72 55.18 33.75 IV 59.00 61.29 34.41 Year 61.00 62.21 35.24 1993 I 72.92 77.94 43.39 II 63.83 64.58 35.41 III 60.68 63.50 36.17 IV 65.96 71.26 34.86 Year 65.85 69.32 37.46 1994 I 60.06 71.78 41.49 II 59.70 64.16 40.48 III 75.71 69.59 38.98 IV 70.35 73.25 40.91 Year 66.45 69.70 40.47 1995 I 71.40 79.45 36.20 II 75.80 82.13 34.34 III 83.57 80.77 33.27 IV 72.67 81.98 31.82 Year 75.86 81.08 33.91 1996 I 81.38 93.13 41.17 II 88.92 99.77 32.91 III 86.94 90.82 39.88 IV 83.82 95.79 42.25 Year 85.27 94.88 39.05 ------------------------------------ 1/ Commercial slaughter by class estimated 2/ Forecast Sheep and lamb inventory, supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sheep in-Sheep in- ventory ventory Replace- Year without with Stock ment Lamb Total Total new crop new crop Ewes Ewes Crop Supply Disapp lambs lambs ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1970 20423 13923 2422 13465 33888 19850 1971 19731 13609 2280 12998 32729 18628 1972 18739 12909 1974 12599 31338 17770 1973 17641 12049 1883 11500 29141 16320 1974 16310 11058 1804 10509 26819 14808 1975 14515 10083 1510 9857 24372 13642 1976 13311 9314 1345 8888 22199 12919 1977 12722 8850 1401 8573 21295 12529 1978 12421 8571 1508 7927 20348 12712 1979 12365 8366 1684 7974 20339 13104 1980 12699 8533 1810 8257 20956 13191 1981 12947 8780 1790 8820 21767 13503 1982 12997 8811 1810 8580 21577 12788 1983 12140 8343 1420 8209 20349 11736 1984 11559 12445.4 7874 1237 7788 20233.4 11308.4 1985 10716 11518.8 7233 1016 7412 18930.8 10907.8 1986 10145 11028.9 6817 1048 7356 18384.9 11253.9 1987 10572 11416.6 6847 1296 7190 18606.6 12084.6 1988 10945 11798.8 7348 1323 7205 19003.8 12268.1 1989 10853 11674 7186 1341 7721 19395 12412.1 1990 11358 12132 7608 1322 7685 19817 12290.4 1991 11174 11930.3 7409 1340 7651 19581.3 11763.4 1992 10797 11507 7129 1166 7225 18732 11173 1993 10201 10905.8 6537 1127 6379 17284.8 10158.71 1994 9079 9714 5804 878 5897 15611 8898.6 1995 8886 5300 878 1996 8461 5128 863 1997 */ 7937 4836 794 END_OF_FILE