WHEAT OUTLOOK November 12, 1997 November 1997, WHS-1197 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. This report is only available electronically, except for the annual Yearbook edition, which is available in published copies or on diskette. Call 1-800-999-6779 to order. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS --Wheat prices follow corn and soybeans --Food use revised up this month --Record world wheat production expected --U.S. winter wheat planting nearly complete --SRW outlook: larger crop, higher exports than in 1996/97 --Special report--Rail Problems Disrupt Marketing Flows --Special article--The Economics of Wheat Biotechnology Research The wheat futures market indicates rising wheat prices for the remainder of the 1997/98 marketing year (June-May). The price differential between the Kansas City March 1998 contract and December 1997 contract is about 12 cents per bushel, while the May-March differential is 8 cents. However, if foreign competition is larger and/or demand is weaker than the market expects, prices could sag. For much of October and early November, lively prices for soybeans and corn have been supporting and even lifting the wheat market. However, prospects for U.S. wheat prices will eventually depend largely on export demand and prospects for the next year's crop. Export Forecast Is Unchanged From Last Month; Food Use Up U.S. exports are forecast unchanged from the October forecast at 1,075 million bushels in 1997/98, compared with 1,001 million last year. Although the weekly export pace since June has advanced relative to a year earlier, U.S. exports are 9 percent behind last year's level as of October 30, according to U.S. Export Sales. But outstanding sales are up, so commitments (exports plus outstanding sales) are down only about 4 percent. Year-over-year increases are expected in the third and fourth quarters, making up for lost ground in the first two. Export Inspections data indicated heavy shipments in September. However, the pace slowed considerably in October, dampening second quarter (September-November) export prospects. Food use for 1997/98 is revised up 10 million bushels to 910 million due to higher-than-expected millgrind so far this season. Food use was 892 million bushels in 1996/97. Forecast ending stocks have been reduced to reflect the higher use. The forecast range of season-average farm price is narrowed to $3.40-$3.70 per bushel, up 10 cents on the low end, based on relatively strong farm prices to date. The season-average farm price was $4.30 in 1996/97. The USDA estimate for 1997 U.S. production is 2.53 billion bushels, up 11 percent from last year and the fifth largest on record. The U.S. average yield for all wheat hit a record high 39.7 bushels per acre due to generally favorable conditions in the southern and central Plains (despite the April freeze) and across the soft red belt. Output in Kansas topped 500 million bushels for the first time. World Wheat Production and Trade Revised Up World wheat production is forecast at a record 603 million tons, up 2.4 million from last month. However, the year-to-year decline in major foreign competitor production is still large, with combined production in the European Union (EU), Canada, Australia and Argentina down more than 19 million tons from a year ago. This underpins the projected year-over-year increase in U.S. exports. This month's forecasts of larger production in Russia, Australia, and Ethiopia more than offset a decline in Kazakstan. Harvest reports from Russia indicate a larger crop, including a significant increase in private sector production, boosting the wheat production forecast 2 million tons this month to 44 million. With increased production, Russia is expected to import less from Kazakstan, where dryness dropped its production forecast 1 million tons. Russia's forecast exports increased as well, leaving Russia a net exporter of wheat for the first time since the breakup of the USSR. World wheat trade in 1997/98, at 97.1 million tons, is forecast up 1.15 million from last month and is slightly larger than last year. Increased imports by the EU and South Korea boosted the forecast. The European Union has purchased more high quality spring wheat and durum from the United States and Canada than expected because the EU durum crop was reduced by dryness in Spain and Southern France. In addition, rain at harvest across most of Northern Europe increased the amount of wheat with marginal bread baking characteristics. Italy and Spain have purchased more than expected U.S. and Canadian wheat for blending. Large feed wheat supplies in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Russia are expected to exceed local demand and move into export channels, especially in Eastern Europe and Russia where reduced animal numbers limit the demand for feed wheat. Recent competitive freight rates have helped wheat sourced from the Black Sea win a larger than expected share of the feed grain market in South Korea, displacing U.S. corn. South Korea's wheat imports are forecast up over 1.0 million tons this month because of feed wheat purchases. Also boosting 1997/98 world wheat trade prospects is an increase this month in Australia's crop, as timely rains increased production and export forecasts by 0.5 million tons. Although up from a month ago, Australia's 1997/98 production is still down over 6 million tons from last year's record. U.S. Winter Wheat Planting Nearly Complete Fall planting and plant emergence conditions for U.S. winter wheat have been good in most growing areas. Soils in most areas are favorably moist for both short and long term needs. The only exceptions are portions of western North Dakota and eastern Montana, as well as a swath through the mid-section of Texas. As of November 2, three-quarters of the crop was in good or excellent condition, the same share as last year. Temperatures have been below normal in recent weeks, slowing early-season plant growth. As of November 2, the 1998 winter wheat crop was 91 percent planted, compared with 93 percent last year and the same as the 1992-96 average. Emergence of the newly planted winter wheat crop was 80 percent, just below last year's 83 percent and 2 points above the 1992-96 average. Emergence is ahead of normal in several soft red wheat States. Generally good planting conditions and relatively attractive new-crop (1998) futures prices at $3.80-$4.00 per bushel throughout the planting period bode well for wheat seeding this fall. The first forecast of winter wheat seedings will be released on January 13, 1998. On the same day, USDA's estimate of December 1 wheat stocks will be released in the Grain Stocks report. The report will provide the first indication of second-quarter (September-November) use. Final production estimates for 1997 (in contrast to the preliminary estimates released on September 30) will also be released for all wheat classes in USDA's Crop Production-Annual. SRW Outlook: Larger Crop, Higher Exports Than in 1996/97 Soft red winter (SRW) production is estimated at 484 million bushels in 1997, up 15 percent from 1996. Higher yields offset lower harvested acreage. Yields were excellent in most SRW producing States, hitting records in Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, New Jersey, Michigan, Maryland, and Delaware. Incidences of scab and other diseases were reportedly much lower than last year, so quality is better. Total SRW use in 1997 is forecast at 465 million bushels, up 13 percent from 1996. Higher exports account for the increase as higher quality supplies are bid away from feed buyers in the domestic market. As a result of the overall improved quality of SRW supplies, feed and residual use in 1997 is forecast to decline slightly, despite lower prices. With supplies outpacing use in 1997/98, ending stocks are expected to build to the highest level in 4 years. Shipments to Egypt have been strong since the start of the marketing year. Egypt has emerged as the top U.S. SRW buyer in 1997/98, accounting for 61 percent of total SRW year-to-date exports and outstanding sales as of October 30. (SRW is used as a cheap bread wheat in countries like Egypt.) Exports to China and Mexico are sharply lower than a year ago. China is awash in its own record crop. Mexico also has a larger crop and is importing more hard red winter (HRW) instead of SRW. Monthly SRW farm prices are running only about 10 cents per bushel below HRW prices, which is reasonable given the relative size and quality of the two crops. In 1995/96 and 1996/97, average discounts were 70-80 cents per bushel due to sharply smaller HRW crops. In those years, poor SRW quality also contributed to lower SRW prices. Rail Problems Disrupt Marketing Flows by Jerry Norton, Agricultural Marketing Service/USDA; (202) 720-4211 Rail shippers in many parts of the Nation have been experiencing serious shipment delays and service disruptions since late summer. The impact of the current problems varies substantially from region to region and market to market. Grain shippers in the lower Plains and western Corn Belt have been especially hard hit by these problems. Western livestock and poultry feeders that depend on rail shipments of feed grains from these areas have also had to struggle to secure sufficient feed supplies to maintain their herds and flocks. As the fall harvest enters its last weeks, additional grain moving in from the fields could mean that any significant improvement in the current situation is still weeks away. The service problems now plaguing many grain shippers in the western United States began in July on the Union Pacific (UP) in and around the Houston market. The initial problems appear to have stemmed from stronger than anticipated intermodal and petrochemical demand combined with UP's efforts to consolidate its operations with those of the Southern Pacific Railroad (SP). These problems were further exacerbated by the unexpected large winter wheat harvest in the southern Plains. The 1997 U.S. winter wheat crop was up 27 percent from last year. Among the factors contributing to the UP-SP consolidation problems were incompatibility of computer systems between the railroads, unsettled labor agreements that restricted crewing flexibility, and lack of adequate locomotive power to move trains. To some extent the shortages of locomotive power reflect long-term operating problems inherited from the cash-strapped SP which UP acquired last year. With the fall harvest and increased demand for grain transportation, the UP's troubles have quickly spread to other areas and other railroads, especially the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF). The current rail service problems are substantially different in nature than the types of equipment shortages and service delays that shippers have routinely experienced following many recent harvests. Since early September, grain car loadings on the major railroads have averaged 23,250 cars per week (3,200-3,400 bushels per car). This is down nearly 20 percent from the average weekly loadings during the same period in 1995 when many shippers in the western Corn Belt and upper Plains experienced serious equipment shortages and service disruptions. Grain traffic on the three major western U.S. railroads--the Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Kansas City Southern (KCS), and UP--is also down this fall as compared with 1995 traffic. Since September, only the KCS has had average weekly grain loadings higher than their 1995 level. Increased grain traffic on the KCS, part of which is the result of rerouting from the UP, has done little to increase the overall level of loadings on the western railroads. Weekly loadings on these carriers are averaging 16,300 cars per week, down 17 percent or nearly 3,500 car loads per week from the same weeks in 1995. Average weekly grain loadings since September on the four major eastern U.S. railroads--Conrail, CSX Transportation, Illinois Central (IC), and Norfolk Southern--are also down from 1995. Since the first of September, the eastern railroads' weekly grain car loadings have averaged 6,800 cars per week, down 11 percent from their levels in 1995 but up 12 percent from 1996. This increase over 1996 has been driven by increases on the IC. Since the fall harvest season began, the IC has experienced a 45-percent increase in average weekly grain loadings. Some of this increase in grain traffic on the IC reflects shifts in shipments away from the troubled western railroads. Since early September, rail shipments of grain to export elevator facilities have averaged 6,000 cars per week. This is up more than 50 percent from last year when the U.S. corn crop was smaller, but down 34 percent from their levels in 1995. Despite rail congestion problems in the lower plains which have nearly tripled shipment times for grain railed from Kansas to the Gulf, moderately strong export demand has kept wheat shipments moving to Gulf Coast ports. Since the beginning of the wheat marketing year on June 1, Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat export inspections are up 6 percent. Since July, when the current rail problems began, HRW wheat inspections at Texas Gulf export houses are up 17 percent from their 1994-96 average. At Texas Gulf facilities, rail car shipments of grain have averaged 2,100 car per week since September--up 41 percent from last year and 2 percent from 1995. With outstanding export sales of wheat running 20 percent ahead of last year (as of October 30), strong demand for transportation to move HRW wheat to the Gulf export houses should continue for some time. Inland river facilities in Oklahoma along the Arkansas River and at Kansas City on the Missouri River are reporting substantial increases in barge shipments of HRW wheat to export facilities in Louisiana along the lower Mississippi River. HRW wheat export inspections at the Louisiana export houses are more than double their average for the 1994-96 years. Hardest hit by the present rail service problems have been grain shippers in the lower Plains and western Corn Belt, particularly country elevator shippers. Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have experienced the worst of the problems so far. Good corn and sorghum harvests in this region have followed an excellent winter wheat crop. The large wheat crop and strong market signals to store grain left many grain elevators filled to capacity with little or no room for the large feed grain harvest. Reports from Kansas indicate that as much as 30 million bushels of grain may be piled on the ground. Even though nearly all of this is feed grains, quality deterioration is a growing concern with the recent early snows that fell across the region. The western Corn Belt and corn producing areas of the upper Plains are also experiencing service problems, particularly in Minnesota, Nebraska, and the corn producing areas of North and South Dakota. The inability to move harvested feed grains, particularly corn, has forced many country elevator shippers to pile grain outside as they wait for long-delayed rail equipment to arrive at there facilities. With this region experiencing its third largest corn crop ever, elevators are scrambling to find adequate storage. The Nebraska Public Service Commission has issued elevators in that State temporary licenses to store as much as 50 million bushels of corn on the ground. The current rail service delays have forced many livestock and poultry feeders in areas outside of the traditional grain belt to rely extensively on truck shipments to meet their feeding needs. Arkansas poultry feeders have been forced to fill in between delayed rail shipments with trucked grain coming off the river or from feed grain producing areas to the north. Western Plains hog feeders and California feedlot operators have faced similar problems as they have had to scramble to secure steady supplies of feed grains and feed ingredients that are normally delivered by rail. Southeastern poultry and hog feeders have not been as directly impacted by the rail problems in the Western States. Normally in the first part of the season, grain supplies for these feeders are originated by rail out of the eastern Corn Belt in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. The eastern railroads serving this market have, however, experienced high levels of demand for covered hopper rail cars. This has slowed transit times for some grain movements, but not to the extent that would drastically delay shipments. Late summer fertilizer demand on the eastern railroads was stronger than usual and has lasted into the early part of the eastern grain harvest. Many of the covered hopper rail cars that were in fertilizer service are gradually being shifted back into grain service as they return from receivers throughout the Midwest. The return of some of these cars has been delayed by service problems in the Western States. Grain moving in from the fields as the fall harvest continues will add to existing rail demand in the coming weeks. As of the first week in November, 18 percent of the corn crop and 24 percent of the sorghum crop were still in the field in the western United States. This amounts to more than 1 billion bushels of feed grains or nearly 10 percent of the U.S. feed grain crop. The eastern U.S. corn crop is substantially farther behind, with more than one-third of the corn still in the field. This amounts to more than 1.2 billion bushels of corn. Thus, substantial improvement in the current rail transportation situation could still be weeks away. The Economics of Biotechnology Research Investments by James N. Barnes For many years, traditional plant breeding programs have modified the genetic make-up of wheat plants to produce better varieties. But unlike traditional breeding programs, the use of biotechnology--one of the newest tools in the evolution of agricultural technology--can improve plants by affecting only specific attributes. Genetic transformation can reduce or eliminate the expression of undesirable traits, as well as allow researchers to introduce a trait in a single generation. Enhanced food quality, reduced environmental degradation, and improved competitiveness of U.S. agriculture in world markets are potential benefits of biotechnology in wheat production. USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) grants field research permits, which allows genetically engineered products to be released in controlled field testing. From 1994 to July 1997, APHIS issued wheat biotechnology permits for field testing to four entities (two public and two private) (see table A). The private firms dominated the share of the total biotechnology permits at 64 percent, with Monsanto holding 62 percent of all permits. The University of Idaho held 26 percent of all permits followed by the USDA's Agricultural Research Service (ARS) at 10 percent. Permits are classified into five categories: herbicide tolerant (HT), fungal resistant (FR), viral resistant (VR), marker gene (MG), and product quality (PQ). Herbicide tolerance protects a plant from chemicals that would otherwise have an adverse affect on it (e.g., Roundup-Ready corn and soybeans). Fungal and viral resistance are desired traits because they reduce the amount of pesticides used on the crop while protecting the plants from harmful fungi and viruses. Market gene research enables scientists to detect plants possessing preferred traits. Product quality characteristics refer to changes made to enhance kernel traits (e.g., altering taste or texture). The VR category had the highest number of wheat biotech permits, at 18, followed by FR at 15. The private sector (particularly Monsanto) is interested primarily in FR, MG, and HT, while the University of Idaho does the majority of VR research and ARS does the majority of PQ research. The cumulative number of permits for wheat biotechnology increased from nine permits in 1994 to 62 in 1997 (as of July) (see table B). Although the number of permits has increased, the total volume is relatively small compared with other crops such as corn. During the same period, the cumulative number of corn permits increased from 262 to 1,204 or 360 percent. Based on APHIS field testing permit data, biotechnology research is conducted more extensively for corn than for wheat. Why? First, wheat has a more complex genotype that is more difficult for researchers to manipulate. Another explanation could be the relative returns to investments (which is somewhat related to the first). When entities decide where to invest their money, performance measures such as internal rates of return (IRR) are often used to select one investment over another. USDA's Economic Research Service is undertaking an empirical analysis of the relative returns to biotechnology research for wheat and corn. It is hypothesized that the IRR's for corn are much higher than for wheat. A special article in the forthcoming Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook (available in Spring 1998) will present the findings. *************************************************************************** Information Contacts: * Dennis A. Shields (domestic) dshields@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5311 * * James N. Barnes (domestic) jbarnes@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5291 * * Edward W. Allen (international) ewallen@econ.ag.gov (202) 694-5288 * * * * Copies available at: * * World Wide Web Site www.econ.ag.gov * ERS Autofax system (202)694-5700 * * Document Number 12105 * * * * The next Wheat Outlook Report will be released on December 12, 1997. * * * * The 1997 Wheat Yearbook is available at: * * 1) ERS autofax: Call (202)694-5700 and select document 12100 for a * * complete directory of the historical tables and special articles. * * 2) ERS homepage: www.econ.ag.gov/, select Products and Services, then * * Publications, Field Crops, and Wheat. * *************************************************************************** Table A--Wheat biotechnology field testing permits issued by USDA, 1994-July 1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Type of Permit ------------------------------------------------ HT MG FR VR PQ Total ------------------------------------------------ Monsanto 8 12 15 2 2 39 AgrEvo 1 0 0 0 0 1 Univ. of Idaho 0 0 0 16 0 16 ARS/USDA 0 0 0 0 6 6 Total 9 12 15 18 8 62 ----------------------------------------------------------------- HT=herbicide tolerance, MG=marker gene, FR--fungal resistant, VR=viral resistant, PQ--product quality characteristics Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, PPQ, Biotechnology Evaluations, 1997. Table B--APHIS field testing permits issued for wheat and corn, 1994-1997 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Year Permits Issued Percentage Change ------------------------------------------- Wheat 1994 9 1995 12 33 1996 33 175 1997* 8 -76 Total 62 Corn 1994 262 1995 348 33 1996 279 -20 1997* 315 13 Total 1,204 ----------------------------------------------------------------- *As of July. Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, PPQ, Biotechnology Evaluations, 1997. Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97E 1997/98P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------- Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. N.A. Nat'l total base | 89.6 89.6 88.9 88.5 87.9 77.3 CRP base retired | 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 Eff.base/ctr.acres| 78.9 78.4 78.1 77.7 76.4 76.6 0,50/92/85 | 4.0 5.7 5.2 6.1 N.A. N.A. Planted | 72.2 72.2 70.3 69.1 75.6 71.0 Harvested | 62.8 62.7 61.8 60.9 62.9 63.6 Yield (bu/ac) | 39.3 38.2 37.6 35.8 36.3 39.7 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 475.0 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 443.6 Production | 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,321.0 2,182.6 2,281.8 2,526.6 Imports 1/ | 70.0 108.8 91.9 67.9 92.0 95.0 TOTAL | 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,981.4 2,757.1 2,749.8 3,065.2 | Use | Food | 834.8 871.7 852.9 883.0 892.0 910.0 Seed | 99.1 96.3 89.2 104.1 103.0 100.0 Feed & Residual | 193.6 271.7 344.4 151.9 310.0 325.0 Exports 1/ | 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,188.3 1,241.1 1,001.0 1,075.0 TOTAL | 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,474.8 2,381.1 2,306.0 2,410.0 | Ending stocks | 530.7 568.5 506.6 376.0 444.0 655.2 Farmer-owned | reserve | 28.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 N.A. 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 150.0 150.0 142.0 118.0 93.0 93.0 Free stocks | 352.7 412.5 364.6 258.0 351.2 562.2 Stocks-to-use | 21.4 23.0 20.5 15.8 19.3 27.2 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 3.24 3.26 3.45 4.55 4.30 3.40-3.70 Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 N.A. N.A. Loan rate | 2.21 2.45 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 Contract rate 3/ | 0.81 1.03 0.61 0 0.874 0.620 | Contract pmts. | (mil. dollars)3/ | 1,371 1,900 1,146 100 1,976 1,401 Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,984 7,812 8,007 9,931 9,826 8,969 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected, N.A.--not applicable. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Deficiency payment rate prior to 1996/97. Table 2--Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1996/97E | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.8 19.1 11.8 5.3 3.6 75.6 Harvested | 25.8 18.7 9.7 5.2 3.5 62.9 Yield (bu/ac) | 29.6 33.6 43.4 68.9 32.7 36.3 Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Beg. stocks | 154 106 35 55 26 376 Imports | .3 53.0 0 15 24 92 TOTAL | 916 787.6 457 424 163 2,750 | Use: | Total domestic | 487 327 272 130 93 1,304 Food | 320 260 150 85 76 891 Seed | 38 32 19 7 7 103 Feed and residual| 128 28 103 37 13 310 | Exports 2/ | 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 TOTAL | 774 620 412 366 134 2,306 | Ending stocks | 143 166 45 59 32 444 | | 1997/98P | HRW HRS SRW White Durum All wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 34.2 18.5 10.0 5.0 3.3 71.0 Harvested | 28.9 17.8 8.9 4.8 3.1 63.6 Yield (bu/ac) | 38.7 28.1 54.4 69.9 27.7 39.7 Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Beg. stocks | 143 166 45 59 31 444 Imports 2/ | 1 54 0 10 30 95 TOTAL | 1,265 721 529 404 147 3,065 Use: | Total domestic | 584 287 270 112 82 1,335 Exports 2/ | 385 230 195 225 40 1,075 TOTAL | 959 517 465 337 122 2,410 | Ending stocks | 296 204 64 67 25 655 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. 2/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 3--Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Ending Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports stocks | 1/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- 1995/96 | Jun-Aug | 2,183 23 2,712 215 8 305 303 1,881 Sep-Nov | 0 16 1,897 232 65 (99) 361 1,338 Dec-Feb | 0 12 1,350 216 3 13 294 823 Mar-May | 0 17 841 220 28 (67) 283 376 Mkt. year| 2,183 68 2,757 883 104 152 1,241 376 1996/97E | Jun-Aug | 2,282 15 2,673 224 9 382 334 1,724 Sep-Nov | 0 21 1,745 234 60 (76) 308 1,219 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,246 214 2 29 179 822 Mar-May | 0 30 849 220 32 (24) 180 444 Mkt. year| 2,282 92 2,748 892 103 310 1,001 444 1997/98P Jun-Aug | 2,526 95 3,065 228 3.2 400 288 2,073 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and selected products expressed in wheat equivalent. Table 4--Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.) 1997 | April May June July August September --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 72,285 72,425 72,245 75,570 75,561 78,350 Food exports -| 1,410 2,233 1,858 2,977 1,841 Food imports +| 1,630 1,807 1,558 1,602 1,746 Non-flour | food use +| 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 Food use | 74,505 73,998 73,946 76,195 77,465 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5--Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) --------------------- Farm Prices ---------------------- All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 5.26 3.52 | 5.14 3.42 | 5.58 4.21 | 5.48 3.74 Jul | 4.73 3.23 | 4.67 3.16 | 5.13 4.61 | 5.30 3.66 Aug | 4.58 3.56 | 4.52 3.39 | 5.03 5.23 | 4.63 3.75 Sep | 4.37 3.67 | 4.28 3.47 | 4.67 5.35 | 4.41 3.64 Oct 1/| 4.18 3.55 | 4.07 3.42 | 4.78 5.39 | 4.23 3.51 Nov | 4.14 | 4.05 | 4.56 | 4.11 Dec | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.59 | 4.01 Jan | 4.03 | 4.02 | 4.47 | 3.95 Feb | 3.88 | 3.90 | 4.31 | 3.80 Mar | 3.93 | 3.98 | 4.32 | 3.83 Apr | 4.11 | 4.14 | 4.40 | 4.04 May | 4.09 | 4.14 | 4.50 | 3.94 KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.12 4.08 | 6.20 4.19| 4.84 3.46| 5.55 4.20 Jul | 5.34 3.57 | 5.35 3.80| 4.72 3.34| 4.96 3.85 Aug | 5.01 3.84 | 5.04 4.11| 4.62 3.64| 5.02 4.10 Sep | 4.70 3.86 | 4.71 4.07| 4.38 3.62| 4.79 4.12 Oct | 4.76 | 4.75 | 4.02 3.57| 4.28 3.98 Nov | 4.78 | 4.78 | 3.85 | 4.10 Dec | 4.70 | 4.72 | 3.90 | 4.06 Jan | 4.61 | 4.63 | 3.78 | 4.10 Feb | 4.52 | 4.57 | 3.55 | 4.13 Mar | 4.58 | 4.67 | 3.71 | 4.25 Apr | 4.78 | 4.85 | 3.99 | 4.54 May | 4.61 | 4.76 | 3.80 | 4.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% #1 durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 96/97 97/98 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 6.73 4.44 | 6.57 5.38 | 227 148 | 0.00 0.00 Jul | 6.04 4.36 | 6.18 5.93 | 203 140 | 0.00 0.00 Aug | 5.29 4.49 | 5.77 6.39 | 192 152 | 0.00 0.00 Sep | 4.63 4.36 | 5.47 6.69 | 179 150 | 0.00 0.00 Oct | 4.69 4.36 | 5.41 6.49 | 178 153 | 0.00 0.00 Nov | 4.64 | 5.56 | 176 | 0.00 Dec | 4.51 | 5.57 | 176 | 0.00 Jan | 4.62 | 5.42 | 176 | 0.00 Feb | 4.45 | 5.25 | 172 | 0.00 Mar | 4.62 | 5.18 | 177 | 0.00 Apr | 4.78 | 5.35 | 183 | 0.00 May | 4.58 | 5.38 | 173 | 0.00 Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month for 1997/98. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6--Wheat: Exports and imports U.S. wheat exports, (1,000 bu.) 1997 | March April May June July August --------------|----------------------------------------------------------- Wheat grain | 55,936 69,821 47,640 65,654 92,465 123,141 Wheat flour | 2,490 1,253 2,086 1,731 2,849 1,621 Products | 168 166 192 207 180 265 Total | 58,594 71,240 49,917 67,592 95,494 125,028 U.S. wheat imports, (1,000 bu.) 1997 | March April May June July August --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 8,703 6,587 8,963 6,623 5,217 5,887 Wheat flour | 373 453 447 467 517 498 Products | 222 1,570 1,361 1,095 1,163 1,248 Total | 9,298 8,610 10,772 8,184 6,897 7,633 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and Export Sales comparison --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | 1997/98 (as of 10/30/97) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |Ship- |Outstanding| Total | Shipments |ments | sales | -------------|------------------------------------------------------------- Data| | Export | | Export | Export Source | Census| Sales | Census | Sales | Sales -------------|------------------------------------------------------------- Country | --1,000 metric tons-- Algeria | 444 452| 350 | 350 | 146 0 146 China | 3,057 2,979| 1,003 | 1,065 | 137 11 148 Egypt | 5,069 5,072| 2,684 | 2,825 | 2,734 374 3,108 FSU | 929 651| 408 | 288 | 103 89 191 Japan | 3,094 3,468| 3,325 | 3,264 | 1,276 469 1,745 S. Korea | 1,413 1,406| 1,544 | 1,646 | 618 316 933 Morocco | 674 693| 443 | 421 | 500 30 530 Nigeria | 820 880| 590 | 698 | 390 83 473 Pakistan | 1,652 1,672| 2,027 | 1,973 | 1,188 250 1,438 Philippines | 1,856 2,059| 1,772 | 1,876 | 724 308 1,032 Total grain |32,823 32,778| 26,516 | 25,964 | 13,289 4,238 17,526 Total(incl) | | | | products)1/ |35,842 33,055| 27,254 | 26,127 | 13,356 4,263 17,619 USDA forecast| of Census | | | | 29,257 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Grain equivalent basis. END_OF_FILE