WHEAT OUTLOOK June 13, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. WHS--0695. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Recent Developments HIGHLIGHTS -- Winter wheat production forecast down 30 million bushels from May. -- Spring wheat planting delays drop projected production 33 million bushels. -- Tight supplies and strong demand lower projected 1995/96 ending stocks to the lowest since 1973/74. -- Slow pace of shipments reduce 1994/95 estimated exports. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST DOWN Forecast 1995 winter wheat production at 1.608 billion bushels is down 30 million bushels from May and 53 million from the 1994 crop. Winter wheat production dropped because of lower yields, as forecast harvested area declined by only 100,000 acres in Montana. On June 30, USDA will publish the Acreage report, indicating planted and harvested area for wheat. Compared to the May forecast, most yield changes occurred in soft red winter wheat states. However, the largest reductions were in Oklahoma (HRW) and Washington (White). Unfavorable weather conditions, both excessive moisture and cool temperatures in some states and dryness in others led to decline in prospective yields. SPRING WHEAT PRODUCTION PROJECTED DOWN FROM MAY Total spring wheat (including durum) is projected to reach 652 million bushels, down from 685 in May. The May projection was based on the Prospective Plantings and average yields. Because of slow spring wheat planting progress, the June projections for area are down one million acres. Rainfall in North Dakota and South Dakota was significantly above normal during May. As of June 4, spring wheat plantings were 80 percent complete in North Dakota and 89 percent for the five major spring wheat producing states. TOTAL U.S. SUPPLIES PROJECTED AT 2.87 BILLION BUSHELS, DOWN 1 PERCENT U.S. wheat supplies are projected at 2.872 billion bushels, down from 2.914 billion a month earlier, as higher forecast beginning stocks are more than offset by lower production. Total wheat supplies have not been this low since 1976/77's 2.817 billion bushels. LOWER PROJECTED FOOD USE IN 1995/96, PRICES STEADY TO HIGHER As production and supply prospects are pared, only domestic food consumption was changed from a month earlier. Domestic food consumption is projected to reach 865 million bushels, down 10 million from May. Demand for food use is projected to remain strong and continue long term growth. However, food consumption is expected to slow from the rapid growth of 1993/94's record 872 million bushels. Feed and residual use is unchanged from last month at 250 million bushels. Strong demand and tighter supplies will lower ending stocks to 459 million bushels, 22 million below May's 491 and the lowest since 1973/74. The tighter scenario developing in the U.S. is pushing the season average price higher. The projected price range is up 10 cents to $3.35 to $3.75 per bushel. As the marketing year unfolds, further developments in the size and quality of the U.S. crop and export competitiveness will influence farm prices. WORLD STOCKS CONTINUE TIGHT World wheat ending stocks in 1995/96 are projected to be the tightest since 1977/78, dropping to 112.7 million tons. Projected stocks continue tight in all the major exporting countries despite the overall increase projected for global production to 548 million tons, 5 percent above 1994/95. Global trade prospects continue weak. At a projected 98.6 million tons, exports are expected to be only fractionally above those of last year. Production is projected up in the major exporting countries other than the United States--the EU, Canada, Australia, and Argentina. But in the past month, prospects deteriorated for 1995/96 spring wheat production in the U.S. due largely to cool, wet conditions in the Northern Plains. These conditions raised global price expectations sharply. Higher prices, coupled with timely rain increased expected Australian plantings. Projected production estimates for Australia are increased to 16 million tons, 1 million more than last month and nearly 7 million above the 1994 drought-reduced harvest. Australia's prospective exports also are raised, to 10 million tons compared with only 7.2 million in 1994/95. Exports from the U.S. and Canada are projected down 1 and 3 million tons from 1994/95 to 33 million and 18 million tons. EU exports are anticipated to rise to 19 million tons, up nearly 2 million on the strength of the expected larger EU crop and improved EU price competitiveness. China and Morocco are still expected to be the major sources of 1995/96 import gains. Drought is increasing Morocco's import prospects. In China, use continues expanding faster than production, pushed up by burgeoning income growth. Although China's 1995/96 wheat crop is projected 3 million tons above last year to 102 million, strong demand is expected to push up imports to 12 million tons, 1.5 million more than in 1994/95. **************************************************************************** * Information Contacts: * * Edward W. Allen (senior wheat analyst) (202) 219-0831 * * Bryan Just (domestic) (202) 501-8524 * * Sara Schwartz (international, domestic cross commodity) (202) 501-8514 * * Carolyn Whitton (international) (202) 219-0825 * **************************************************************************** PRELIMINARY DATA CHANGE EARLIER 1994/95 FORECASTS The 1994/95 U.S. wheat marketing year ended on May 31, but the final data for much of the supply and demand were not reported by June 12 when USDA released its forecast. Ending stocks will not be published until June 30, May mill grind is released at the beginning of July, and Census data on imports and exports in May will not be available until July 18. However, in June, preliminary data on 10 or 11 months of the marketing year for most parts of the supply and demand resulted in changes for 1994/95 for exports, food use, feed and residual use, and ending stocks. U.S. wheat exports were dropped by 35 million bushels to 1,215 million. Grain exports reported by Census have been lower than reported by the Federal Grain Inspection Service or Export Sales. Of course, in any one month, reporting delays and different paperwork is expected to create differences, but over time the data should track fairly closely. However, in most years, wheat exports according to Census data are less than reported by the other sources. The discrepancy appears unusually large in 1994/95, and it is unlikely that April and May Census data will significantly close the gap. Forecast U.S. food use was also dropped in June to 855 million bushels, as mill grind during the last 4 months has been reported consistently below a year earlier. This is surprising because U.S. food use in recent years has been increasing at a rate faster than population growth, implying increasing per capita food consumption. Preliminary mill grind indicates the dropoff is sharp enough to reduce food use by 2 percent (1994/95 compared to 1993/94). Feed and residual use was increased from 275 million bushels to 300 million. When ending stocks data become available at the end of June, the size of the annual feed and residual will become clearer. Through the first three quarters, June-March, the feed and residual has totaled 373 million bushels. When stocks are tight, feed and residual use in the fourth quarter often is negative, and that is expected to occur in 1994/95. However, instead of expecting a record negative fourth-quarter residual, as implied by an annual 275 million bushel feed and residual, the 300 million forecast implies a fourth-quarter feed and residual similar to that of 1992/93. Reduced exports and food use were partly offset by increased feed and residual, but ending stocks were boosted about 20 million bushels to 511 million. FUNDAMENTALS OF WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 1994/95 Reduced production and imports more than offset increased beginning stocks. Total U.S. wheat supplies for 1994/95 are forecast below 3 billion bushels for the third time in 15 years. Although up from a year earlier, beginning stocks of 568 million bushels were the fourth lowest in 15 years. Imports are projected down because the large U.S. corn crop is reducing incentives to ship feed wheat south and a Memorandum of Understanding with Canada sets tariff rate quotas on wheat imports. U.S. production in 1994 was 2.32 billion bushels, down 3 percent from a year earlier but the fifth largest in the last 10 years. Despite a 0-percent ARP for the second year in a row, planted area continued to decline. Wheat prices before and during the early planting of winter wheat (August-September 1993) were much lower than prices affecting the planting of spring wheat (March-April 1994). Moreover, excess moisture and flooding prevented some winter wheat from being planted. Average yields declined 2 percent as below trend HRW yields more than offset record SRW yields. Total use of wheat was nearly unchanged from the year before as a small increase in feed and residual offset a small decline in exports. U.S. wheat exports are estimated at 1.215 billion bushels (33 million tons), down slightly from 1993/94. The U.S. share of global trade is estimated to expand in 1994/95 because of reduced competitor exports. Drought in Australia has greatly lowered that country's supplies, so U.S. wheat exports to Egypt and several Asian and Middle Eastern countries are increasing. Global 1994/95 ending stocks will be the lowest since 1977/78 and the world stocks-to-use ratio will be the lowest since the USDA database began in 1960/61. Exporter supplies are very tight, so export prices are above a year ago. Reduced foreign production and tight U.S. and competing exporters' supplies supported U.S. and world prices. As competition has receded, EEP bonuses were well below a year earlier. Global trade was reduced by larger production in some importing countries (especially Morocco and in Eastern Europe), imports of wheat for feeding, and reduced imports by the former Soviet Union due to lower feed consumption. However, China expanded its imports more than 140 percent from a year ago to 10.5 million tons. Table 1 -- Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance Item |1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95E 1995/96P -------------------|------------------------------------------------------ Area (mil. ac.) | ARP (%) | 5.0 15.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nat'l total base | 90.8 89.6 89.6 89.6 88.9 88.5 CRP base retired | 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8 Effective base | 80.5 79.2 78.9 78.4 78.1 78.0 0,50/92/85 | 5.3 5.8 4.0 5.7 5.2 5.2 Planted | 77.0 69.9 72.2 72.2 70.4 70.9 Harvested | 69.1 57.8 62.8 62.7 61.8 61.4 Yield (bu/ac) | 39.5 34.3 39.3 38.2 37.6 36.8 | Supply (mil. bu.) | Beg. Stocks | 536.5 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 511.1 Production | 2,729.8 1,980.1 2,466.8 2,396.4 2,320.6 2,260.5 Imports 1/ | 36.4 40.7 70.0 108.8 90.0 100.0 TOTAL | 3,302.6 2,889.0 3,011.8 3,035.9 2,979.1 2,871.6 | Use | Food | 789.8 789.5 834.8 871.7 855.0 865.0 Seed | 92.9 97.7 99.1 96.3 98.0 98.0 Feed & Residual | 482.4 244.5 193.6 271.6 300.0 250.0 Exports 1/ | 1,069.5 1,282.3 1,353.6 1,227.8 1,215.0 1,200.0 TOTAL | 2,434.5 2,413.9 2,481.2 2,467.4 2,468.0 2,413.0 | Ending stocks | 868.1 475.0 530.7 568.5 511.1 458.6 Farmer-owned | reserve | 14.0 50.0 28.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory 2/ | 163.0 152.0 150.0 150.0 142.0 142.0 Free stocks | 691.1 273.0 352.7 412.5 369.1 316.6 | Stocks-to-use | 35.7 19.7 21.4 23.0 20.7 19.0 | Prices ($/bu.) | Season average | 2.61 3.00 3.24 3.26 3.45 3.35-3.75 Target price | 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Loan rate | 1.95 2.04 2.21 2.45 2.58 2.58 deficiency | payment rate | 1.28 1.35 0.81 1.03 0.61 3/ | Deficiency pmts. | (mil. dollars) | 2,420 2,246 1,371 1,904 1,146 | Market value | of production | (mil. dollars) | 7,184 5,957 7,984 7,812 8,006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ From 1981 on, includes Food Security Reserve. 3/ Based on 5-month price + 10 cents. Table 2 -- Wheat supply and disappearance by class 1/ 1993/94E |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 36.3 17.5 10.7 5.4 2.2 72.2 Harvested | 30.1 16.0 9.3 5.2 2.1 62.7 Yield (bu/ac) | 35.4 31.9 43.1 67.3 33.6 38.2 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 1,066 512 401 347 70 2,396 Beg. stocks | 204 171 43 64 49 531 Imports 2/ | 4 66 0 9 31 109 TOTAL | 1,273 749 444 420 150 3,036 | Use: | Food | 385 195 147 65 80 872 Seed | 39 27 19 7 5 96 Residual | 136 60 60 32 (16) 272 Total domestic | 560 282 226 104 68 1,240 Exports 2/ | 486 266 173 249 54 1,228 TOTAL | 1,046 548 399 353 122 2,467 | Ending stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 1994/95P |HRW HRS SRW White Durum All Wheat ------------------|-------------------------------------------------- | Area: (mil. ac.) | Planted | 35.0 17.5 9.8 5.2 2.9 70.4 Harvested | 28.7 16.9 8.4 5.0 2.7 61.8 Yield (bu/ac) | 33.9 30.4 51.3 61.0 35.5 37.6 | | Supply: (mil. bu.)| Production | 971 515 433 303 97 2,321 Beg. stocks | 227 201 45 67 28 568 Imports 2/ | 4 49 0 15 22 90 TOTAL | 1,202 765 479 386 147 2,979 | Use: | Total domestic | 559 280 225 109 80 1,253 Exports 2/ | 439 305 210 225 36 1,215 TOTAL | 998 585 435 334 116 2,468 | Ending stocks | 205 180 44 52 31 511 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use. Table 3 -- Wheat: Quarterly supply and disappearance (1,000 bu.) ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- Market |Produc- Year | tion Imports Supply Food Seed Feed Exports E.stocks | 1/ 1/ ----------|---------------------------------------------------------------- | 1992/93: | Jun-Aug | 2,467 20 2,962 211 1 346 283 2,121 Sep-Nov | 0 16 2,137 219 63 (82) 345 1,592 Dec-Feb | 0 17 1,609 197 3 5 356 1,048 Mar-May | 0 16 1,064 208 32 (75) 370 531 Mkt. year| 2,467 70 3,012 835 99 194 1,354 531 | 1993/94E | Jun-Aug | 2,396 15 2,942 211 1 296 301 2,133 Sep-Nov | 0 30 2,163 225 61 (38) 329 1,586 Dec-Feb | 0 27 1,613 211 2 39 332 1,028 Mar-May | 0 37 1,065 224 32 (25) 266 568 Mkt. year| 2,396 109 3,036 872 96 272 1,228 568 | 1994/95P | Jun-Aug | 2,321 31 2,920 213 2 376 260 2,069 Sep-Nov | 0 21 2,091 229 62 (29) 338 1,491 Dec-Feb | 0 18 1,509 201 2 27 310 968 Mar-May 2/| 0 20 988 211 32 (73) 307 511 Mkt. year| 2,321 90 2,979 855 98 300 1,215 511 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Totals may not add due to rounding. E--Estimated, P--Projected. 1/ Imports and exports include flour and other products expressed in wheat equivalent. 2/ Based on market year forecast. Table 4 -- Wheat: Food disappearance (1,000 bu.) Jun-Mar Jun-Mar 1994 | Jan Feb Mar Apr 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Mill grind +| 68,963 65,143 76,820 66,591 730,126 735,056 Food exports -| 2,835 7,213 7,682 -- 49,639 40,990 Food imports +| 4,109 3,344 4,487 -- 17,466 13,945 Non-flour | food use +| 1,950 1,950 1,950 1,950 19,150 18,150 Food use | 72,186 63,224 75,575 717,104 726,161 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Non-flour food use is ERS estimate. Table 5 -- Wheat: Farm prices and prices at selected markets ($/bu.) --------------------- Farm Prices ---------------------- All wheat Winter wheat Durum Other spring Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 2.84 3.21 | 2.72 3.09 | 3.18 4.59 | 3.21 3.51 Jul | 2.85 3.04 | 2.76 2.99 | 3.26 4.32 | 3.50 3.28 Aug | 2.96 3.25 | 2.83 3.23 | 3.43 4.30 | 3.51 3.19 Sep | 3.10 3.57 | 2.88 3.57 | 3.92 4.51 | 3.37 3.38 Oct | 3.25 3.76 | 3.00 3.79 | 4.23 4.89 | 3.49 3.52 Nov | 3.47 3.75 | 3.21 3.76 | 4.91 4.88 | 3.66 3.51 Dec | 3.63 3.74 | 3.43 3.75 | 4.92 4.67 | 3.74 3.56 Jan | 3.58 3.69 | 3.41 3.67 | 4.97 4.58 | 3.69 3.51 Feb | 3.60 3.61 | 3.36 3.61 | 5.41 4.68 | 3.67 3.40 Mar | 3.70 3.53 | 3.26 3.47 | 5.75 4.61 | 3.66 3.38 Apr | 3.56 3.48 | 3.24 3.45 | 5.73 4.48 | 3.68 3.34 May 1/| 3.43 3.70 | 3.17 3.63 | 5.06 4.61 | 3.63 3.65 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ KC HRW #1 KC HRW #1 St. Louis Portland ordinary 13% prot. #2 SRW #1 soft white Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.33 3.60 | 3.60 3.85 | 2.83 3.22 | 3.46 3.64 Jul | 3.38 3.48 | 3.89 3.63 | 2.94 3.11 | 3.57 3.52 Aug | 3.34 3.70 | 3.88 3.78 | 2.98 3.31 | 3.44 3.71 Sep | 3.37 4.05 | 4.23 4.12 | 2.75 3.69 | 3.42 4.32 Oct | 3.52 4.31 | 4.58 4.37 | 2.93 3.89 | 3.42 4.61 Nov | 3.39 4.24 | 4.98 4.31 | 3.33 3.84 | 3.47 4.54 Dec | 4.15 4.27 | 5.11 4.32 | 3.62 4.00 | 3.61 4.49 Jan | 4.00 4.06 | 4.69 4.07 | 3.83 3.83 | 3.63 4.33 Feb | 3.80 3.98 | 4.54 4.01 | 3.61 3.74 | 3.52 4.23 Mar | 3.64 3.87 | 4.39 3.91 | 3.36 3.59 | 3.46 3.98 Apr | 3.63 3.86 | 4.42 3.95 | 3.29 3.55 | 3.58 4.08 May | 3.65 | 4.46 | 3.24 | 3.74 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Minn. Minn. FOB Gulf Average EEP DNS 14% durum $/ton (HRW) bonus $/ton 2/ Month | 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 93/94 94/95 ------|----------------------------------------------------------------- Jun | 3.96 4.20 | 3.84 5.76 | 122 139 | 20.11 43.28 Jul | 4.80 4.14 | 4.05 5.19 | 129 138 | 42.44 42.18 Aug | 4.88 4.00 | 4.41 5.30 | 131 148 | 41.98 36.39 Sep | 4.90 4.27 | 5.06 6.16 | 132 159 | 50.36 37.61 Oct | 5.17 4.40 | 5.73 6.64 | 137 167 | 52.65 26.82 Nov | 5.50 4.41 | 6.38 6.61 | 147 162 | 53.61 22.44 Dec | 5.45 4.37 | 6.57 5.99 | 159 165 | 52.19 18.65 Jan | 5.32 4.21 | 6.56 6.23 | 155 156 | 59.65 15.26 Feb | 5.29 4.09 | 6.78 5.91 | 147 154 | 40.72 9.91 Mar | 4.94 4.11 | 7.06 5.87 | 141 150 | 52.30 15.20 Apr | 4.99 4.30 | 6.45 5.64 | 141 149 | 46.49 20.52 May | 5.05 | 6.17 | 140 159 | 47.40 23.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Source: NASS & AMS, USDA. 1/ Mid-month. 2/ Weighted avg., all classes. Table 6 -- Wheat: Exports and Imports U.S. wheat exports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Mar Jun-Mar | Dec Jan Feb Mar 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 104,139 93,735 97,478 98,876 964,400 1,023,645 Wheat flour | 4,734 2,805 7,085 7,617 48,857 40,405 Products | 147 112 136 137 1,595 1,318 Total | 109,020 96,652 104,699 106,631 1,014,852 1,065,369 U.S. wheat imports, 1994/95: (1,000 bu.) Jun-Mar Jun-Mar | Dec Jan Feb Mar 1994/95 1993/94 --------------|------------------------------------------------------------ Wheat grain | 4,327 4,109 3,344 4,487 58,395 67,708 Wheat flour | 697 776 735 920 6,763 5,012 Products | 1,685 1,014 964 1,124 11,170 8,943 Total | 6,709 5,899 5,043 6,531 76,328 81,663 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. Wheat flour and products converted to wheat grain equivalent. Table 7 -- Wheat: U.S. exports (1,000 metric tons) 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |1993/94 1993/94 |1994/95 1994/95 | 1995/96 -----------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------- | | | as of | | Year | Year | 6/1/95 | | Final End | End | Out- Total | | Census Ship- |USDA Ship- |Ship- standingcommit- |USDA Country | total ments |estimatements |ments sales ments 2/|forecast -----------|---------------------------------|------------------------|-------- | | | Algeria | 1,301 1,323 | 547 | 0 0 0 | China | 1,887 1,933 | 3,347 | 10 1,608 1,618 | Egypt | 2,975 2,787 | 5,427 | 0 723 723 | FSU | 2,659 1,394 | 928 | 0 20 20 | Japan | 3,266 3,014 | 3,544 | 0 734 734 | S. Korea | 1,544 1,459 | 1,557 | 0 96 96 | Morocco | 1,348 1,304 | 116 | 21 5 26 | Nigeria | 1,076 1,050 | 631 | 16 34 50 | Pakistan | 1,834 1,447 | 1,414 | 0 0 0 | Philippines| 1,883 1,739 | 1,852 | 0 700 700 | | | | | Total grain| 32,038 27,561 | 30,027 | 68 5,645 5,714 | | | | | Total (incl| | | | products)3/| 33,414 28,268 | 33,067 30,817 | 68 5,861 5,930 | 32,659 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ June - May. 2/ U.S. Export Sales Report. 3/ Grain equivalent basis. Table 8 -- Winter Wheat Production --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *********** 1995 *********** 1994 1995 Percent Planting Harvested Yield Production Production Change Intentions Area (bu/ac) (1,000 bu) (1,000 bu) from 1994 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Major hard red winter states KS 11,700 10,700 35 433,200 374,500 -13.6 OK 7,000 5,200 27 143,100 140,400 -1.9 CO 2,800 2,500 34 76,500 85,000 11.1 TX 6,200 3,000 28 75,400 84,000 11.4 NE 2,150 2,000 39 71,400 78,000 9.2 MT 1,700 1,500 35 64,750 52,500 -18.9 SD 1,600 1,400 36 43,200 50,400 16.7 CA 580 440 70 38,760 30,800 -20.5 NM 460 200 27 5,520 5,400 -2.2 UT 145 135 39 6,000 5,265 -12.3 WY 200 180 25 4,320 4,500 4.2 AZ 25 23 95 2,632 2,185 -17.0 Major soft red winter states IL 1,500 1,400 53 50,400 74,200 47.2 OH 1,230 1,210 59 68,440 71,390 4.3 MO 1,300 1,200 43 49,500 51,600 4.2 AR 1,100 1,000 45 40,480 45,000 11.2 IN 700 660 63 38,430 41,580 8.2 NC 720 680 42 30,380 28,560 -6.0 KY 650 460 53 25,200 24,380 -3.3 VA 300 275 55 14,000 15,125 8.0 TN 540 330 45 15,000 14,850 -1.0 GA 400 340 38 20,400 12,920 -36.7 MD 220 210 57 12,100 11,970 -1.1 SC 300 290 35 18,000 10,150 -43.6 PA 190 185 52 7,920 9,620 21.5 MS 200 175 37 6,400 6,475 1.2 WI 145 135 51 7,670 6,885 -10.2 Major white states WA 2,200 2,100 52 124,200 109,200 -12.1 OR 900 800 63 55,680 50,400 -9.5 ID 830 770 71 56,880 54,670 -3.9 MI 620 600 55 30,740 33,000 7.4 NY 125 115 53 6,095 6,095 0.0 U.S. 49,252 40,623 40 1,661,043 1,608,396 -3.2 HRW 34,497 27,370 34 971,134 919,817 -5.3 SRW 10,530 9,269 49 433,335 452,852 4.5 White 1/ 4,225 4,083 58 256,574 235,727 -8.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter white production only. 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