FRUIT AND TREE NUTS -- SUMMARY August 26, 1998 August 1998, FTS-283 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of FRUIT AND TREE NUTS will be available within a week following release of this summary. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Many Noncitrus Fruit Prices Expected Higher in 1998 The grower price index for fruit and nuts will likely average slightly higher during the second half of 1998 than the same period a year ago, reflecting higher grower prices, mostly for noncitrus fruit. Due to weather problems, harvest of many noncitrus fruit crops in California, a major fruit production region in the United States, is expected to be smaller than a year ago. Reduced production of stone fruit this summer and pears this fall will help to boost overall retail fresh fruit prices during the second half of 1998. Increased apple production in the fall will likely counter some of the strength in prices. USDA forecasts the 1998 U.S. apple crop to be up 9 percent from a year ago. Larger expected crops in the Western region, except in California, will offset production declines in the Central and Eastern regions. Washington's crop is expected to reach a record, likely increasing fresh use in 1998. U.S. grape production in 1998 is forecast to decline 14 percent from last year's record. California's crop, about 90 percent of the U.S. total, despite being down 15 percent, will be the second largest crop on record. Reduced grape production and expected smaller crops of many noncitrus fruits, especially in California, are going to help boost fresh-market grower prices during the 1998/99 marketing season. The 1998 U.S. pear crop is forecast 12 percent smaller than last year's near record production. The Pacific Coast production of Bartlett pears is expected to be down 15 percent from 1997, while U.S. output of other varieties will likely decline 9 percent. Increased inventories from last year's record fresh use and the expected larger apple crop this fall could keep fresh pear prices from rising sharply. U.S. peach production in 1998 is forecast down 9 percent from a year earlier, primarily due to smaller expected crops in California, South Carolina, and Georgia. Reduced production and less competition from other summer stone fruit has put some upward pressure on grower prices so far in 1998. The 1998 U.S. apricot crop is forecast 6 percent smaller than the large production in 1997, putting upward pressure on grower prices. Production is expected to decline in California and Washington. U.S. sweet cherry production is forecast down 12 percent from a year ago, but continues above average. Weather problems in California reduced its crop 70 percent and has already put a strain on U.S. fresh cherry exports in 1998. Production in Washington is forecast down only 1 percent, still above average and its third largest. In Oregon, output is forecast unchanged. U.S. tart cherry production in 1998 is forecast up 1 percent from a year ago and is the largest crop since 1995. This, along with large beginning stocks of frozen tart cherries, will put some downward pressure on grower prices. Commercial strawberry production in the six major producing States (CA, FL, OR, WA, MI, NJ) is forecast down 7 percent from a year ago. Over 80 percent of U.S. strawberries are produced in California where the crop is forecast down 6 percent due primarily to the winter rains that adversely affected production through most of the first half of the year. However, sharply higher shipments in June and July, resulting from improved weather, led to lower than year-earlier prices. The North American Blueberry Council estimated the 1998 U.S. cultivated blueberry crop to be down 8 percent from last year. However, more blueberries are expected for fresh use, likely driving fresh-market grower prices down. Meanwhile, large stocks of frozen blueberries will likely keep grower prices for processing use from advancing over last year. The California Kiwifruit Commission indicated that California's kiwifruit crop will likely match last year's average production. While fruit set was not adversely affected by weather problems in the State so far this year, crop development is about 2 weeks behind due to a late bloom and slow sizing of the fruit. U.S. cranberry production is forecast up 2 percent from 1997's record crop. Beginning inventories for the 1998/99 season will likely remain large given last year's bumper crop and large 1997/98 beginning inventories. Increased production, large inventories, and an expected good crop in Canada, could put downward pressure on cranberry grower prices during 1998/99. Most of the tropical fruit supplies in the United States are imported. Lower imports were largely responsible for the decline in U.S. fresh banana and papaya consumption in 1997. In the same year, increased imports helped raise consumption of fresh mangoes and pineapples. The 1997/98 U.S. citrus crop increased 5 percent over the previous year, mainly because of a record orange crop, estimated up 9 percent. Production increased in all the major producing States. Florida produced another record orange crop in 1997/98, estimated up 8 percent from a year ago. Higher juice yields contributed to a 6-percent increase in orange juice production in 1997/98 from a year earlier. This is the fourth year of increased production. Strong processor demand for Valencia oranges resulted in improved grower prices for the second half of the season. Grapefruit production fell 9 percent in 1997/98 to the lowest since 1991/92. Production is up in California but down in Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Grower prices for fresh grapefruit continued to decline in 1997/98 as they have over the last several years. Production of almond, walnut, and pistachio crops in California, hazelnuts in the Pacific Northwest, and U.S. pecans will be significantly lower this season due to "off-year production" of nut trees and weather-related problems. Therefore, average grower prices are likely to be higher than a year earlier. For more information,contact Agnes Perez 202-694-5255. Printed copies of the Fruit and Tree Nuts Situation and Outlook report will be available in about a week. END_OF_FILE