Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 9, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up 4 Percent from March Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2025-2026 season is 2.53 million tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from the 2024-2025 revised utilization. The California all orange forecast is 48.5 million boxes (1.94 million tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 10 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), up 5 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), unchanged from previous forecast but up 23 percent from last season's revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 12.2 million boxes (550,000 tons), is up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season's revised utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.70 million boxes (212,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.50 million boxes (338,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but down 2 percent from last season's utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 910,000 boxes (39,000 tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from last season's utilization. This report was approved on April 9, 2026. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Brooke Appleton Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2024-2025 and Forecasted April 1, 2026............................................................................................ 4 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.. 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.... 7 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.............................. 9 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026................................ 10 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 11 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 11 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 12 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 14 Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 14 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 15 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2024-2025 and Forecasted April 1, 2026 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2024-2025 : 2025-2026 : 2024-2025 : 2025-2026 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 44,100 48,500 1,764 1,940 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 37,200 40,000 1,488 1,600 Valencia ..................: 6,900 8,500 276 340 : Florida, all ...............: 12,280 12,200 553 550 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 4,600 4,700 207 212 Valencia ..................: 7,680 7,500 346 338 : Texas, all .................: 850 910 37 39 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 530 560 23 24 Valencia ..................: 320 350 14 15 : United States, all .........: 57,230 61,610 2,354 2,529 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 42,330 45,260 1,718 1,836 Valencia ..................: 14,900 16,350 636 693 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,300 4,300 172 172 Florida ....................: 1,300 1,250 55 53 Texas ......................: 2,000 2,000 80 80 : United States ..............: 7,600 7,550 307 305 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 30,400 30,000 1,216 1,200 Florida ....................: 400 450 19 21 : United States ..............: 30,800 30,450 1,235 1,221 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,120 950 45 38 California .................: 26,400 26,000 1,056 1,040 Florida ....................: 670 900 30 41 : United States ..............: 28,190 27,850 1,131 1,119 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons in Arizona-80, California-80, Florida-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,299 2,352 1,761 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 98,788 95,338 91,258 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,208 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 49,557 50,113 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,676 All other ............................: (NA) 34,881 Oats ...................................: 2,370 2,361 944 Proso millet ...........................: 442 397 Rice ...................................: 2,812 2,319 2,740 Rye ....................................: 2,229 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,640 6,120 6,020 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 448 Wheat, all .............................: 45,328 43,775 37,241 Winter ...............................: 33,153 32,410 25,508 Durum ................................: 2,185 1,950 2,123 Other spring .........................: 9,990 9,415 9,610 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,338.5 2,685.0 2,306.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 248 230 234 Mustard seed ...........................: 126.2 111.8 Peanuts ................................: 1,953.0 1,674.0 1,906.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 18.6 16.6 Safflower ..............................: 116.5 108.5 Soybeans for beans .....................: 81,215 84,700 80,437 Sunflower ..............................: 1,288.2 1,385.5 1,246.2 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 9,282.5 9,640.0 7,804.9 Upland ...............................: 9,141.0 9,510.0 7,666.7 American Pima ........................: 141.5 130.0 138.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,079.0 1,063.0 1,059.8 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 946.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 171.3 171.6 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 536.0 499.0 520.3 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,366.0 1,236.0 1,334.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,173.0 1,174.0 1,063.0 Lentils ................................: 1,072.0 832.0 949.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 41.7 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 22.9 Potatoes ...............................: 902.0 896.8 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 11.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 80.0 140,849 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 186.5 17,020,549 Corn for silage ....................tons: 21.8 135,540 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 123,031 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.42 50,213 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,818 Oats ............................bushels: 73.8 69,626 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.9 14,239 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,544 206,707 Rye .............................bushels: 36.5 12,459 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 72.6 436,825 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 16.4 7,325 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 53.3 1,984,537 Winter ........................bushels: 54.9 1,401,554 Durum .........................bushels: 40.6 86,223 Other spring ..................bushels: 51.7 496,760 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 2,017 4,650,910 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,204.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 22.2 5,202 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 636 71,120 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,767 7,179,850 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,126 35,290 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,319 143,160 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 53.0 4,261,858 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,863 2,321,852 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 856 13,918.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 847 13,530.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,348 388.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 33.2 35,140 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.4 34,445 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,093 358,570 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 6,844 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,012 26,855 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,738 18,480 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,112 10,557 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,996 83,143.4 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,771 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 669,930 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 108 2,471 Potatoes ............................cwt: 460 412,860 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 139 1,609 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 930,380 951,830 712,660 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 39,978,520 38,582,340 36,931,200 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,512,320 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 20,055,220 20,280,230 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,939,230 All other ....................: (NA) 14,115,990 Oats ...........................: 959,120 955,470 382,030 Proso millet ...................: 178,870 160,660 Rice ...........................: 1,137,990 938,480 1,108,850 Rye ............................: 902,050 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,687,140 2,476,700 2,436,230 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 181,300 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,343,790 17,715,300 15,071,060 Winter .......................: 13,416,690 13,116,000 10,322,830 Durum ........................: 884,250 789,150 859,160 Other spring .................: 4,042,850 3,810,160 3,889,070 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 946,370 1,086,590 933,220 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 100,360 93,080 94,700 Mustard seed ...................: 51,070 45,240 Peanuts ........................: 790,360 677,450 771,340 Rapeseed .......................: 7,530 6,720 Safflower ......................: 47,150 43,910 Soybeans for beans .............: 32,866,900 34,277,240 32,552,050 Sunflower ......................: 521,320 560,700 504,320 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 3,756,530 3,901,210 3,158,560 Upland .......................: 3,699,270 3,848,600 3,102,640 American Pima ................: 57,260 52,610 55,930 Sugarbeets .....................: 436,660 430,190 428,890 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 382,840 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 69,320 69,440 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 216,910 201,940 210,560 Dry edible beans ...............: 552,810 500,200 540,100 Dry edible peas ................: 474,700 475,110 430,190 Lentils ........................: 433,830 336,700 384,050 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 16,860 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,270 Potatoes .......................: 365,030 362,930 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,690 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.30 3,066,620 Corn for grain .........................: 11.71 432,341,860 Corn for silage ........................: 48.94 122,959,820 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.57 111,611,850 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.67 45,552,470 All other ............................: 4.68 66,059,380 Oats ...................................: 2.65 1,010,620 Proso millet ...........................: 2.01 322,930 Rice ...................................: 8.46 9,376,070 Rye ....................................: 2.29 316,470 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.55 11,095,870 Sorghum for silage .....................: 36.65 6,645,130 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.58 54,010,250 Winter ...............................: 3.70 38,144,050 Durum ................................: 2.73 2,346,610 Other spring .........................: 3.48 13,519,590 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.26 2,109,620 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,813,800 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.40 132,140 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.71 32,260 Peanuts ................................: 4.22 3,256,730 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.38 16,010 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 64,940 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.56 115,988,770 Sunflower ..............................: 2.09 1,053,170 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.96 3,030,290 Upland ...............................: 0.95 2,945,810 American Pima ........................: 1.51 84,480 Sugarbeets .............................: 74.33 31,878,470 Sugarcane ..............................: 81.62 31,247,980 Tobacco ................................: 2.35 162,640 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 310,440 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.26 1,218,120 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.95 838,240 Lentils ................................: 1.25 478,860 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.24 37,710 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 28,860 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 303,870 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,120 Potatoes ...............................: 51.60 18,727,020 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.16 730 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 307 305 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,131 1,119 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,354 2,529 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,235 1,221 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,470.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 30,700 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 383,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 138.5 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 18,200 Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,130,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 5,590,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 682,500 Pears .................................tons: 625,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,000,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 710,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 278,510 276,690 Lemons ....................................: 1,026,030 1,015,140 Oranges ...................................: 2,135,510 2,294,270 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,120,370 1,107,670 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,202,700 Apricots ..................................: 27,850 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 347,450 Cherries, Tart ............................: 62,820 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 8,260 Cranberries ...............................: 368,770 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,071,160 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 619,150 Pears .....................................: 566,990 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,360,780 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 644,100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. March Weather Summary Highlights: Historic and unprecedented warmth gripped the western and central United States for much of March, prematurely melting Western mountain snowpack and contributing to conditions conducive to spring wildfires on the Plains. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the Sierra Nevada lost about two-thirds of its snow-water equivalency during March, from 15 inches at the beginning of the month to around 5 inches by April 1. At the beginning of April, mountain snowpack had been completely eliminated, or nearly so, in many Southwestern watersheds, portending a summer of sharply reduced streamflow and surface-water reserves. Very warm, mostly dry weather, particularly across the Nation's southwestern quadrant, also sharply reduced topsoil moisture availability for rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. In drier areas of the Deep South, drought adversely affected some emerging summer crops. Ironically, several sharp cold snaps, the worst of which struck around mid-March, threatened a variety of Southeastern fruit crops, including blueberries and peaches. Monthly average temperature records were broken by more than 5°F in some Southwestern locations. In Phoenix, Arizona, for example, the monthly average temperature of 78.8°F was 12.5°F above normal, eclipsing the March 2004 record of 72.3°F. Record-shattering March warmth extended as far north as the northern Intermountain West and as far east as the High Plains. In fact, monthly temperatures averaged at least 6 to 12°F above normal along and south of a line from northwestern California to southern Montana, then extending southeastward into the central Appalachians, excluding areas along and near the Gulf Coast. Near- or slightly below-normal March temperatures were restricted to portions of the Nation's northern tier, including western Washington, northern Maine, and areas near Lake Superior. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage across the Lower 48 States was above 50 percent each week starting February 24, peaking at 59.91 percent on March 31. The last time National drought coverage topped 60 percent was November 8, 2022, along with 4 weeks earlier that year. Previously, the only instances of National drought coverage exceeding 60 percent were 25 non-consecutive weeks in 2012-13, starting on July 10 and ending on January 8. At the end of March 2026, Extreme to Exceptional Drought (D3 to D4) was observed in portions of twenty-four States, led by Florida (nearly 80 percent). Double-digit coverage of D3 to D4 was observed on March 31 in a dozen States, including Georgia (63 percent), Arkansas (61 percent), Utah (59 percent), Colorado (48 percent), Nebraska (43 percent), and Oklahoma (35 percent). During the first 3 months of 2026, wildfires scorched more than 1.6 million acres of vegetation, more than twice the 10-year January-March average of approximately 0.7 million acres. The largest blaze of the month (and the year to date) was the Morrill Fire, which was ignited on March 12 and quickly charred more than 642,000 acres of cured vegetation north and northwest of Lake McConaughy, Nebraska, in becoming the largest wildfire in modern State history. Elsewhere in Nebraska, other incidents that began around the same time included the 129,000-acre Cottonwood Fire, southeast of North Platte, and the 36,000-acre Road 203 Fire, mostly in the Nebraska National Forest. About 2 weeks later, on March 26, additional wildfires flaring across the western half of Nebraska included the 36,000-acre Ashby Fire and the 14,000-acre Minor Fire. Conversely, wetter-than-normal March weather affected much of the Midwest, extending across portions of the northern Plains and Northeast. Although much of the Corn Belt benefited from a boost in soil moisture in advance of spring planting, flooding developed early in the month across southern Indiana, especially along the White River and its tributaries. Additionally, a mid-month storm system from the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes region increased livestock stress-especially for animals progressing through lambing and calving-amid heavy snow, high winds, and falling temperatures. On March 15-16, as much as 24 to 36 inches of snow blanketed northern sections of Wisconsin and Michigan. Toward the end of March, Midwestern winter wheat was mostly faring well, with the portion of the crop rated in good to excellent condition ranging from 53 percent in Missouri to 69 percent in Michigan. Conversely, at least one-half of the winter wheat was rated very poor to poor on March 29 in Nebraska (51 percent) and Colorado (50 percent), according to USDA/NASS. Serious topsoil moisture shortages existed across large sections of the Plains and Rockies, led by New Mexico (100 percent very short to short), Colorado (96 percent), and Nebraska (93 percent). Due to March warmth, fast-developing wheat as far north as the central Plains needed moisture for sustenance, with 23 percent of the crop already jointed by March 29 in Kansas, along with 8 percent in Colorado. Winter wheat in top-producer Kansas was rated 40 percent good to excellent near the end of March, down from 62 percent on November 23, 2025. Locations on the High Plains reporting no measurable precipitation during March included Dalhart and Midland, Texas; Guymon, Oklahoma; Burlington, La Junta, Lamar, and Trinidad, Colorado; and Dodge City, Garden City, and Goodland, Kansas. There were several March outbreaks of severe weather, mainly along and east of a line from western Texas to Lake Michigan, resulting in more than 200 tornadoes, based on preliminary reports from the National Weather Service. The Nation's first tornado-related fatalities of the year occurred on March 5 and 6, with four deaths apiece in Michigan and Oklahoma. Three additional tornado-related fatalities occurred on March 10 from a supercell storm that traveled from Illinois into Indiana-part of the same system that produced monstrous hail, up to 6 inches in diameter, near Kankakee, Illinois. Soon after, high winds-unrelated to thunderstorm activity-raked the northern Plains, with peak gusts on March 12 ranging from 70 to 90 mph or higher in many communities. March Agricultural Summary March weather patterns across most of the United States' agricultural regions were marked by widespread warmth, with many areas reporting monthly temperatures 3 to 9°F above normal. Parts of the Southwest and Rocky Mountains experienced anomalies of up to 12°F above normal. Meanwhile, March precipitation varied widely, with many States experiencing significant dryness while others saw periods of rain or snow. Much of the Southeast, High Plains, and West recorded below-average precipitation, delaying planting in several areas and increasing concerns about early-season soil moisture. In contrast, portions of the Midwest, Northeast, and Northern Rockies received above-normal precipitation, helping to recharge soil profiles despite creating periodic delays in field operations in some locations. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2025-2026 grapefruit crop is forecast at 305,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 1 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California forecast, at 4.30 million boxes (172,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast and from last season's revised total. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.22 million tons, up 11 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 30.0 million boxes (1.20 million tons), is up 11 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season's revised total. Lemons: The 2025-2026 United States lemon crop is forecast at 1.12 million tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California forecast, at 26.0 million boxes (1.04 million tons), is up 4 percent from previous forecast but down 2 percent from the 2024-2025 season's revised total. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August, September, December, and March, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.8 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the differences between the April 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes for oranges between the April 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 145,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times, above 13 times, and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :------------------------------------------ : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :------------------------------------------ :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average :Smallest:Largest : final : final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- percent --- ----- thousands ----- number : Oranges ..................tons: 3.9 6.8 145 0 502 6 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Anthony Prillaman, Acting Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section................................................. (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables, and Special Crops Section....................... (202) 236-2428 Joshua Bates - Asparagus, Hemp, Maple Syrup, Soybeans................................ (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings, Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Plums, Prunes..... (202) 690-1042 Noemi Guindin - Crop Progress and Condition, Kiwifruit............................... (202) 720-7324 Michelle Harder - Hay, Kale, Peanuts, Raspberries.................................... (202) 690-8533 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions Proso Millet, Rye, Tobacco...................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Barley, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Tomatoes............................................................ (202) 720-7235 James Johanson - Dry Edible Beans, Lettuce, Macadamias, Wheat........................ (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Beets, Corn, Flaxseed, Pears, Rice, Sweet Corn........................ (202) 720-9526 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Mandarins and Tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios.................................... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes................................... (202) 720-4285 Becky Sommer - Cabbage, Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum, Walnuts, Strawberries...... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Blueberries, Canola, Mustard Seed, Rapeseed, Safflower, Spinach, Sunflower.............................................................. (202) 720-7369 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Oats, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Watermelons............ (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans........................................................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. The national specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Economics, Statistics, and Market Information (ESMIS) - National Agricultural Library (NAL) website houses NASS's and other agency archived reports at https://esmis.nal.usda.gov. 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