Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 10, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Sugarcane Production Down 4 Percent from February Estimate 2025 Sugarcane End of Season: Production for sugar and seed is estimated at 34.4 million tons, down 4 percent from last month but up less than 1 percent from last season. Producers harvested 946,000 acres for sugar and seed during the 2025 crop year, down less than 1 percent from last month but up 3 percent from last season. Yields for sugar and seed are estimated to average 36.4 tons per acre, down 1.4 tons from last month and down 1.0 ton from last season. Record high production for sugarcane for sugar and seed is estimated in Louisiana. This report was approved on March 10, 2026. Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Alexander Vaden Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2024 and 2025.................. 4 Utilized Production of Oranges by Type - States and United States: 2024-2025 and Forecasted March 1, 2026.. 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.... 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026...... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026................................ 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.................................. 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map........................................................................ 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map...................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary................................................................................... 13 February Agricultural Summary.............................................................................. 14 Crop Comments.............................................................................................. 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................... 15 Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts........................................................... 15 Information Contacts....................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2024 and 2025 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --- : For sugar : Florida ............: 381.0 399.0 45.1 41.9 17,183 16,718 Louisiana ..........: 498.0 504.0 31.1 31.7 15,488 15,977 : United States ......: 879.0 903.0 37.2 36.2 32,671 32,695 : For seed : Florida ............: 15.7 18.0 53.3 47.5 837 855 Louisiana ..........: 25.3 25.0 34.5 35.8 873 895 : United States ......: 41.0 43.0 41.7 40.7 1,710 1,750 : For sugar and seed : Florida ............: 396.7 417.0 45.4 42.1 18,020 17,573 Louisiana ..........: 523.3 529.0 31.3 31.9 16,361 16,872 : United States ......: 920.0 946.0 37.4 36.4 34,381 34,445 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Utilized Production of Oranges by Type - States and United States: 2024-2025 and Forecasted March 1, 2026 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year.] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent State and type :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2024-2025 : 2025-2026 : 2024-2025 : 2025-2026 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------ ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : California, all ..............: 45,200 46,500 1,808 1,860 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 37,900 38,000 1,516 1,520 Valencia ....................: 7,300 8,500 292 340 : Florida, all 3/ ..............: 12,200 12,000 549 541 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 4,600 4,500 207 203 Valencia 3/ .................: 7,600 7,500 342 338 : Texas, all 3/ ................: 850 900 37 38 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 530 550 23 23 Valencia 3/ .................: 320 350 14 15 : United States, all ...........: 58,250 59,400 2,394 2,439 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 43,030 43,050 1,746 1,746 Valencia ....................: 15,220 16,350 648 693 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,299 1,761 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 98,788 91,258 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,208 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,557 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,676 All other ............................: (NA) 34,881 Oats ...................................: 2,370 944 Proso millet ...........................: 442 397 Rice ...................................: 2,812 2,740 Rye ....................................: 2,229 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,640 6,020 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 448 Wheat, all .............................: 45,328 37,241 Winter ...............................: 33,153 32,990 25,508 Durum ................................: 2,185 2,123 Other spring .........................: 9,990 9,610 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,338.5 2,306.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 248 234 Mustard seed ...........................: 126.2 111.8 Peanuts ................................: 1,953.0 1,906.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 18.6 16.6 Safflower ..............................: 116.5 108.5 Soybeans for beans .....................: 81,215 80,437 Sunflower ..............................: 1,288.2 1,246.2 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 9,282.5 7,804.9 Upland ...............................: 9,141.0 7,666.7 American Pima ........................: 141.5 138.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,079.0 1,059.8 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 946.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 171.3 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 536.0 520.3 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,366.0 1,334.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,173.0 1,063.0 Lentils ................................: 1,072.0 949.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 41.7 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 22.9 Potatoes ...............................: 902.0 896.8 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 11.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 80.0 140,849 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 186.5 17,020,549 Corn for silage ....................tons: 21.8 135,540 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 123,031 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.42 50,213 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,818 Oats ............................bushels: 73.8 69,626 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.9 14,239 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,544 206,707 Rye .............................bushels: 36.5 12,459 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 72.6 436,825 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 16.4 7,325 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 53.3 1,984,537 Winter ........................bushels: 54.9 1,401,554 Durum .........................bushels: 40.6 86,223 Other spring ..................bushels: 51.7 496,760 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 2,017 4,650,910 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,204.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 22.2 5,202 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 636 71,120 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,767 7,179,850 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,126 35,290 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,319 143,160 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 53.0 4,261,858 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,863 2,321,852 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 856 13,918.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 847 13,530.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,348 388.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 33.2 35,140 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.4 34,445 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,093 358,570 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 6,844 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,012 26,855 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,738 18,480 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,112 10,557 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,996 83,143.4 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,771 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 669,930 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 108 2,471 Potatoes ............................cwt: 460 412,860 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 139 1,609 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 930,380 712,660 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 39,978,520 36,931,200 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,512,320 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,055,220 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,939,230 All other ....................: (NA) 14,115,990 Oats ...........................: 959,120 382,030 Proso millet ...................: 178,870 160,660 Rice ...........................: 1,137,990 1,108,850 Rye ............................: 902,050 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,687,140 2,436,230 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 181,300 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,343,790 15,071,060 Winter .......................: 13,416,690 13,350,720 10,322,830 Durum ........................: 884,250 859,160 Other spring .................: 4,042,850 3,889,070 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 946,370 933,220 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 100,360 94,700 Mustard seed ...................: 51,070 45,240 Peanuts ........................: 790,360 771,340 Rapeseed .......................: 7,530 6,720 Safflower ......................: 47,150 43,910 Soybeans for beans .............: 32,866,900 32,552,050 Sunflower ......................: 521,320 504,320 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 3,756,530 3,158,560 Upland .......................: 3,699,270 3,102,640 American Pima ................: 57,260 55,930 Sugarbeets .....................: 436,660 428,890 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 382,840 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 69,320 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 216,910 210,560 Dry edible beans ...............: 552,810 540,100 Dry edible peas ................: 474,700 430,190 Lentils ........................: 433,830 384,050 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 16,860 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,270 Potatoes .......................: 365,030 362,930 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,690 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.30 3,066,620 Corn for grain .........................: 11.71 432,341,860 Corn for silage ........................: 48.94 122,959,820 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.57 111,611,850 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.67 45,552,470 All other ............................: 4.68 66,059,380 Oats ...................................: 2.65 1,010,620 Proso millet ...........................: 2.01 322,930 Rice ...................................: 8.46 9,376,070 Rye ....................................: 2.29 316,470 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.55 11,095,870 Sorghum for silage .....................: 36.65 6,645,130 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.58 54,010,250 Winter ...............................: 3.70 38,144,050 Durum ................................: 2.73 2,346,610 Other spring .........................: 3.48 13,519,590 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.26 2,109,620 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,813,800 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.40 132,140 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.71 32,260 Peanuts ................................: 4.22 3,256,730 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.38 16,010 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 64,940 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.56 115,988,770 Sunflower ..............................: 2.09 1,053,170 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.96 3,030,290 Upland ...............................: 0.95 2,945,810 American Pima ........................: 1.51 84,480 Sugarbeets .............................: 74.33 31,878,470 Sugarcane ..............................: 81.62 31,247,980 Tobacco ................................: 2.35 162,640 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 310,440 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.26 1,218,120 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.95 838,240 Lentils ................................: 1.25 478,860 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.24 37,710 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 28,860 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 303,870 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,120 Potatoes ...............................: 51.60 18,727,020 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.16 730 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 299 311 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,107 1,078 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,394 2,439 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,223 1,099 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,470.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 30,700 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 383,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 138.5 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 18,200 Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,130,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 5,590,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 682,500 Pears .................................tons: 625,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,000,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 710,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 271,250 282,130 Lemons ....................................: 1,004,250 977,950 Oranges ...................................: 2,171,800 2,212,620 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,109,490 997,000 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,202,700 Apricots ..................................: 27,850 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 347,450 Cherries, Tart ............................: 62,820 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 8,260 Cranberries ...............................: 368,770 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,071,160 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 619,150 Pears .....................................: 566,990 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,360,780 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 644,100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. February Weather Summary Highlights: A damaging cold outbreak affected Florida's peninsula from February 1-3, with variable impacts on citrus, blueberries, strawberries, sugarcane, winter vegetables, ornamentals, and nurseries. Traditional freeze-protection measures, such as creating ice caps (delivered by sprinklers) on fruits and flying helicopters over vegetable fields, were complicated or rendered impossible by high winds during the first 2 days of the event. Full assessment of Florida's freeze impacts will not be known for weeks or months, depending on the crop. The last time Florida's peninsula experienced a freeze of similar magnitude was January 2010, with that event generally peaking on the 10th. Previously, a more severe Florida freeze occurred in December 1989. Following that freeze, Florida's orange production fell to 110.2 million boxes in 1990, down 25 percent from the previous year. Orange production in Florida fell to 133.7 million boxes in 2010, down 18 percent from the previous year, with any freeze-related losses exacerbated by citrus greening disease. Meanwhile, meager snowpack remained a prominent feature in the West, despite a mid-February stormy spell. By March 1, snow-water equivalency values were less than 50 percent of average nearly statewide in Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, as well as portions of neighboring states. In fact, only portions the northern Rockies had a relatively robust snowpack as March began, with near-normal water equivalency largely limited to western Wyoming and environs. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the Sierra Nevada snowpack contained an average of 15 inches of water equivalency (less than two-thirds of normal) at the end of February, up from 10 inches as the month began. Most of the snowpack gains in Sierra Nevada occurred from February 15-19, when numerous high-elevation sites received at least 4 to 8 feet of snow. Despite the lack of sustained storminess over the last 2 months, California's 154 primary intrastate reservoirs were mostly brimming with water, containing 123 percent of average storage as February began. February warmth dominated the western and central United States, while below-normal temperatures gripped the East, despite a late-month warming trend. For dozens of communities, from the Desert Southwest to the High Plains, it was the warmest February on record, with temperatures averaging 6 to 12 degrees F above normal. The list of cities affected by record-setting February warmth included Phoenix, Arizona; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland, Texas; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; Colorado Springs, Colorado; and Laramie and Lander, Wyoming. Many of the previous records had been set in February 1930, 1954, 2000, 2015, or 2017. Farther east, colder-than-normal February conditions stretched from Florida's peninsula into the Northeast, with monthly temperatures averaging as much as 6 degrees F below normal in the latter region. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought coverage across the Lower 48 States increased sharply, from 43 to 55 percent, during the 5-week period ending March 3. Additionally, national coverage of Extreme to Exceptional Drought (D3 to D4) more than doubled, from 3 to 7 percent, between January 27 and March 3. Worsening drought was especially notable across the Plains, South, and parts of the Midwest, while improvement was limited to a few areas, including portions of the middle Atlantic States. By February 24, national drought coverage rose above 50 percent for the first time since November 5, 2024. A week later, on March 3, drought coverage (54.88 percent) was the greatest since December 6, 2022, more than 3 years ago. By March 3, double-digit coverage of D3 to D4 was observed in ten states, led by Florida (71 percent), Georgia (37 percent), and Arkansas (35 percent). End-of-February reporting from USDA/NASS indicated that declining winter wheat conditions were a concern in Nebraska and adjacent areas. Nebraska's wheat had been rated 54 percent good to excellent on November 23, 2025-a number that declined to 18 percent by the end of February. Adverse impacts on wheat in Nebraska have included drought, along with long stretches of dry, windy weather, interrupted by a sharp, mid-winter cold snap that occurred without the benefit of a widespread, protective snow cover. In top wheat wheat-producer Kansas, however, where the soil held more moisture and winter weather was less extreme, the decline in winter wheat rated good to excellent was subtle, decreasing from 62 to 58 percent between November 23 and February 28. By the end of February, statewide topsoil moisture in agricultural regions was rated 70 to 80 percent very short to short in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, and Wyoming. On the same date, topsoil moisture was rated at least 50 percent short in several Southern States, including Louisiana (59 percent) and Arkansas (53 percent). Despite patchy drought across the lower Midwest, 60 to 65 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition as March began in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio. Other February agricultural highlights included a mid-month rash of wildfires across the central and southern High Plains and a late-month winter storm that resulted in blizzard conditions and scattered power outages from the middle Atlantic Coast into southern New England. The wildfire activity peaked on February 17, when the Ranger Road Fire scorched more than 283,000 acres of vegetation and resulted in some cattle and property losses across northwestern Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas, after being sparked in Beaver County, Oklahoma. On February 22-23, a late-winter coastal storm produced more than a foot of wind-driven snow in major East Coast cities from Philadelphia to Boston, but also resulted in some farm infrastructural damage from Maryland's eastern shore into southern New England. February Agricultural Summary Much of the central and western United States experienced above-normal temperatures with portions of the Great Plains recording monthly averages 9 F or more above normal. In contrast, much of the eastern United States saw below-normal monthly temperatures, with parts of the Southeast recording temperatures 6 F below normal. The colder-than-average conditions increased the potential for damage to strawberries, citrus, blueberries, and winter grains, particularly across Florida. Meanwhile, most agricultural regions across the United States experienced unusual dryness, with precipitation totals finishing the month less than half of normal across large parts of the Great Plains, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley. In contrast, portions of North Dakota and northern Minnesota received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Some localized areas of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest also recorded above-normal precipitation. Crop Comments The United States all orange forecast for the 2025-2026 season is 2.44 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 2 percent from the 2024-2025 final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 46.5 million boxes (1.86 million tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 3 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), up 13 percent from the previous forecast and up 16 percent from the previous season. The forecast for California Navel oranges, Florida, and Texas are carried forward from the previous forecast. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The sugarcane inquiry survey for the March 1 estimate was conducted in Florida and Louisiana. The survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and internet. This is a census of all known sugarcane mills in Florida and Louisiana. The Valencia orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in California. Florida conducts objective measurement surveys while California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges. Estimating procedures: State level sugarcane mill reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) uses the survey data to prepare the published March 1 estimate. State level objective yield estimates for California Valencia oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The California Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the California survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: End-of season estimates for sugarcane are published in the March Crop Production report. Revisions if needed will be published in the Annual Crop Production report. The estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including administrative data from Farm Service Agency and Risk Management Agency as well as processor mill records. The March 1 orange production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made in April and July. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 orange production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.2 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 184,000 tons, ranging from 7,000 tons to 733,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. This does not imply that the March 1 forecast for oranges this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : : Average : Smallest : Largest : final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ------- thousands ------ number : Oranges ..................tons: 4.8 8.2 184 7 733 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Anthony Prillaman, Acting Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section................................................. (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables, and Special Crops Section....................... (202) 236-2428 Joshua Bates - Asparagus, Hemp, Maple Syrup, Soybeans................................ (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings, Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Plums, Prunes..... (202) 690-1042 Noemi Guindin - Crop Progress and Condition, Kiwifruit............................... (202) 720-7324 Michelle Harder - Hay, Kale, Peanuts, Raspberries.................................... (202) 690-8533 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions Proso Millet, Rye, Tobacco...................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Barley, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Tomatoes............................................................ (202) 720-7235 James Johanson - Dry Edible Beans, Lettuce, Macadamias, Wheat........................ (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Beets, Corn, Flaxseed, Pears, Rice, Sweet Corn........................ (202) 720-9526 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Mandarins and Tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios.................................... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes................................... (202) 720-4285 Becky Sommer - Cabbage, Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum, Walnuts, Strawberries...... (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Blueberries, Canola, Mustard Seed, Rapeseed, Safflower, Spinach, Sunflower.............................................................. (202) 720-7369 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Oats, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Watermelons............ (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans........................................................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. The national specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Economics, Statistics, and Market Information (ESMIS) - National Agricultural Library (NAL) website houses NASS's and other agency archived reports at https://esmis.nal.usda.gov. 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