Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 12, 2026, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from Last Season The United States all orange forecast for the 2025-2026 season is 2.40 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the 2024-2025 final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 45.5 million boxes (1.82 million tons), up 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 38.0 million boxes (1.52 million tons), up less than 1 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 7.50 million boxes (300,000 tons), up 3 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (541,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.50 million boxes (203,000 tons), down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 7.50 million boxes (338,000 tons), is down 1 percent from last season's utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 900,000 boxes (38,000 tons), is up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on January 12, 2026. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Richard Fordyce Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2024-2025 and Forecasted January 1, 2026.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2024 and 2025...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 14 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts....................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2024-2025 and Forecasted January 1, 2026 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2024-2025 : 2025-2026 : 2024-2025 : 2025-2026 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 45,200 45,500 1,808 1,820 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 37,900 38,000 1,516 1,520 Valencia ..................: 7,300 7,500 292 300 : Florida, all ...............: 12,200 12,000 549 541 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 4,600 4,500 207 203 Valencia ..................: 7,600 7,500 342 338 : Texas, all .................: 850 900 37 38 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 530 550 23 23 Valencia ..................: 320 350 14 15 : United States, all .........: 58,250 58,400 2,394 2,399 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 43,030 43,050 1,746 1,746 Valencia ..................: 15,220 15,350 648 653 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,100 4,300 164 172 Florida ....................: 1,300 1,200 55 51 Texas ......................: 2,000 2,200 80 88 : United States ..............: 7,400 7,700 299 311 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 30,100 27,000 1,204 1,080 Florida ....................: 400 400 19 19 : United States ..............: 30,500 27,400 1,223 1,099 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,120 1,150 45 46 California .................: 25,800 25,000 1,032 1,000 Florida ....................: 670 700 30 32 : United States ..............: 27,590 26,850 1,107 1,078 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons in Arizona-80, California-80, Florida-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2024 and 2025 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2024 : 2025 : 2024 : 2025 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 135 210 1,330 1,300 Arizona .......: 50 30 325 200 Arkansas ......: 260 330 1,650 2,000 California ....: 225 350 1,400 1,600 Colorado ......: 800 650 1,890 1,900 Connecticut ...: 7 8 43 39 Delaware ......: 2 2 9 10 Florida .......: 80 65 420 390 Georgia .......: 230 190 740 700 Idaho .........: 740 440 2,200 1,900 : Illinois ......: 225 290 1,000 1,100 Indiana .......: 190 170 820 1,000 Iowa ..........: 455 750 2,830 2,760 Kansas ........: 1,250 900 3,300 3,600 Kentucky ......: 610 800 3,650 3,450 Louisiana .....: 85 140 700 600 Maine .........: 28 38 106 135 Maryland ......: 67 65 315 300 Massachusetts .: 9 12 43 42 Michigan ......: 290 320 1,100 1,000 : Minnesota .....: 390 960 2,550 2,830 Mississippi ...: 110 180 1,000 920 Missouri ......: 810 1,500 4,800 5,100 Montana .......: 1,590 1,440 3,800 3,550 Nebraska ......: 950 1,750 4,300 3,500 Nevada ........: 160 160 650 645 New Hampshire .: 7 9 34 33 New Jersey ....: 12 11 75 90 New Mexico ....: 110 50 680 290 New York ......: 320 550 1,170 1,190 : North Carolina : 180 175 850 690 North Dakota ..: 1,400 1,130 3,550 4,200 Ohio ..........: 300 160 1,100 1,450 Oklahoma ......: 1,800 1,200 4,800 5,600 Oregon ........: 400 260 1,600 1,400 Pennsylvania ..: 305 355 1,530 1,420 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 4 4 South Carolina : 100 90 330 360 South Dakota ..: 1,900 2,240 5,600 5,400 Tennessee .....: 410 430 2,570 2,720 : Texas .........: 1,500 3,000 7,600 7,800 Utah ..........: 620 630 1,350 1,150 Vermont .......: 37 35 140 148 Virginia ......: 410 280 1,600 1,820 Washington ....: 360 220 1,100 1,100 West Virginia .: 185 85 680 780 Wisconsin .....: 390 1,040 2,900 2,300 Wyoming .......: 515 390 1,300 1,150 : United States .: 21,010 24,091 81,534 81,666 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 2,299 1,761 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 98,788 91,258 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,208 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 49,557 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 14,676 All other ............................: (NA) 34,881 Oats ...................................: 2,370 944 Proso millet ...........................: 442 397 Rice ...................................: 2,812 2,740 Rye ....................................: 2,229 341 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 6,640 6,020 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 448 Wheat, all .............................: 45,328 37,241 Winter ...............................: 33,153 32,990 25,508 Durum ................................: 2,185 2,123 Other spring .........................: 9,990 9,610 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,338.5 2,306.0 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 248 234 Mustard seed ...........................: 126.2 111.8 Peanuts ................................: 1,953.0 1,906.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 18.6 16.6 Safflower ..............................: 116.5 108.5 Soybeans for beans .....................: 81,215 80,437 Sunflower ..............................: 1,288.2 1,246.2 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 9,282.5 7,804.9 Upland ...............................: 9,141.0 7,666.7 American Pima ........................: 141.5 138.2 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,079.0 1,059.8 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 944.0 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 171.3 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 536.0 520.3 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,366.0 1,334.6 Dry edible peas ........................: 1,173.0 1,063.0 Lentils ................................: 1,072.0 949.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 41.7 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 22.9 Potatoes ...............................: 902.0 896.8 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 11.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 80.0 140,849 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 186.5 17,020,549 Corn for silage ....................tons: 21.8 135,540 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.48 123,031 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.42 50,213 All other ........................tons: 2.09 72,818 Oats ............................bushels: 73.8 69,626 Proso millet ....................bushels: 35.9 14,239 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,544 206,707 Rye .............................bushels: 36.5 12,459 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 72.6 436,825 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 16.4 7,325 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 53.3 1,984,537 Winter ........................bushels: 54.9 1,401,554 Durum .........................bushels: 40.6 86,223 Other spring ..................bushels: 51.7 496,760 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 2,017 4,650,910 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,204.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 22.2 5,202 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 636 71,120 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,767 7,179,850 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,126 35,290 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,319 143,160 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 53.0 4,261,858 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,863 2,321,852 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 856 13,918.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 847 13,530.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,348 388.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 33.2 35,140 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.5 35,361 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,093 358,570 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 6,844 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,012 26,855 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,738 18,480 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,112 10,557 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,996 83,143.4 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 5,771 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 669,930 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 108 2,471 Potatoes ............................cwt: 460 412,860 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 139 1,609 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 930,380 712,660 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 39,978,520 36,931,200 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,512,320 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 20,055,220 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 5,939,230 All other ....................: (NA) 14,115,990 Oats ...........................: 959,120 382,030 Proso millet ...................: 178,870 160,660 Rice ...........................: 1,137,990 1,108,850 Rye ............................: 902,050 138,000 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,687,140 2,436,230 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 181,300 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,343,790 15,071,060 Winter .......................: 13,416,690 13,350,720 10,322,830 Durum ........................: 884,250 859,160 Other spring .................: 4,042,850 3,889,070 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 946,370 933,220 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 100,360 94,700 Mustard seed ...................: 51,070 45,240 Peanuts ........................: 790,360 771,340 Rapeseed .......................: 7,530 6,720 Safflower ......................: 47,150 43,910 Soybeans for beans .............: 32,866,900 32,552,050 Sunflower ......................: 521,320 504,320 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 3,756,530 3,158,560 Upland .......................: 3,699,270 3,102,640 American Pima ................: 57,260 55,930 Sugarbeets .....................: 436,660 428,890 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 382,030 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 69,320 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 216,910 210,560 Dry edible beans ...............: 552,810 540,100 Dry edible peas ................: 474,700 430,190 Lentils ........................: 433,830 384,050 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 16,860 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 9,270 Potatoes .......................: 365,030 362,930 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,690 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 4.30 3,066,620 Corn for grain .........................: 11.71 432,341,860 Corn for silage ........................: 48.94 122,959,820 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.57 111,611,850 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.67 45,552,470 All other ............................: 4.68 66,059,380 Oats ...................................: 2.65 1,010,620 Proso millet ...........................: 2.01 322,930 Rice ...................................: 8.46 9,376,070 Rye ....................................: 2.29 316,470 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.55 11,095,870 Sorghum for silage .....................: 36.65 6,645,130 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.58 54,010,250 Winter ...............................: 3.70 38,144,050 Durum ................................: 2.73 2,346,610 Other spring .........................: 3.48 13,519,590 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.26 2,109,620 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,813,800 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.40 132,140 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.71 32,260 Peanuts ................................: 4.22 3,256,730 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.38 16,010 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 64,940 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.56 115,988,770 Sunflower ..............................: 2.09 1,053,170 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.96 3,030,290 Upland ...............................: 0.95 2,945,810 American Pima ........................: 1.51 84,480 Sugarbeets .............................: 74.33 31,878,470 Sugarcane ..............................: 83.97 32,078,960 Tobacco ................................: 2.35 162,640 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 310,440 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.26 1,218,120 Dry edible peas ........................: 1.95 838,240 Lentils ................................: 1.25 478,860 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.24 37,710 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 28,860 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 303,870 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.12 1,120 Potatoes ...............................: 51.60 18,727,020 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.16 730 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 299 311 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,107 1,078 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,394 2,399 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 1,223 1,099 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 11,470.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 30,700 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 383,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 138.5 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,130,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 5,590,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 682,500 Pears .................................tons: 625,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,000,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 710,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2025 and 2026 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2026 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2025-2026 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2025 : 2026 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 271,250 282,130 Lemons ....................................: 1,004,250 977,950 Oranges ...................................: 2,171,800 2,176,340 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 1,109,490 997,000 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 5,202,700 Apricots ..................................: 27,850 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 347,450 Cherries, Tart ............................: 62,820 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 368,770 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,071,160 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 619,150 Pears .....................................: 566,990 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,360,780 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 644,100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. December Weather Summary Highlights: Across the continental United States, December featured an ongoing battle between frigid air arriving from northwestern North America and seemingly endless Pacific warmth and storminess. Temperature patterns exhibited the struggle, with significantly colder-than-normal conditions in the Great Lakes and Northeastern States contrasting with record-setting warmth extending from parts of the West to the High Plains. In fact, monthly temperatures averaged at least 10°F above normal in numerous locations from the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin to the central High Plains. Conversely, readings broadly averaged at least 5°F below normal from the upper Great Lakes region into the Northeast. The mean dividing line between cold and warm air generally stretched from northeastern Montana to the southern Appalachians. Starting on December 9 and intermittently continuing for the remainder of the month, dozens of towns and cities set or tied monthly temperature records. Among them were Yakima, Washington (72°F on the 10th); Alamosa, Colorado (63°F on the 19th); Valentine, Nebraska (76°F on the 22nd); Tucson, Arizona (85°F on the 22nd); Lubbock, Texas (86°F on the 25th); Shreveport, Louisiana (85°F on the 26th); Tulsa, Oklahoma (86°F on the 27th); Fort Smith, Arkansas (84°F on the 27th); and St. Louis, Missouri (78°F on the 28th). Due to consistently cold Midwestern conditions early in the month, snow that had fallen in late November was slow to melt. In fact, snow coverage across the Lower 48 States topped 40 percent each day from December 3-6, as fresh snow briefly expanded coverage into portions of the central and southern Plains, mid-South, and mid-Atlantic. However, as milder air gradually spread northeastward, national snow coverage fell below 30 percent by December 16 and below 20 percent by December 21, according to the National Weather Service. On Christmas morning, national snow coverage stood at just under 19 percent; during the last 20 years, only 2023 featured less snow on the ground, nationally, on December 25. Given the overarching December warmth across the western United States, high-elevation snow accumulations were largely inadequate, leaving only the northern Rockies with near- or above-average snowpack as 2026 began. In the Sierra Nevada, the average snow-water equivalency increased from around an inch in mid-December to 6.5 inches (about two-thirds of normal for the date) at the end of the month, according to the California Department of Water Resources, courtesy of holiday-week storms that delivered valley downpours and less-than-optimal amounts of mountain snow. Western precipitation-albeit widespread and frequently heavy-generally shifted southward as the month progressed. Consequently, flooding initially struck western Washington-peaking on or about December 10-before extending as far south as southern California just prior to the holidays. Christmas Eve featured more than 4 inches of rain in southern California communities such as Sandberg and Santa Barbara, with the latter location experiencing its wettest December day on record. However, there was a sharp divide between December storminess across the northern Plains and much of the West, and very dry conditions from the Four Corners region to the central and southern Plains and the mid-South. Aside from heavy precipitation in southern sections of California and the Great Basin, the December precipitation distribution was loosely consistent with weak La Niña conditions, which have been present since early autumn. During the 4-week period ending December 30, drought coverage across the Lower 48 States was nearly steady, ranging from 40 to 43 percent, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The year ended with 16 consecutive weeks featuring national drought coverage of 40 percent or greater, with a peak of 46.12 percent occurring on November 18. During December, general decreases in coverage across the Pacific Coast States, northern Rockies, and southern Great Basin contrasted with worsening drought from portions of the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians. Other areas, including the Midwest and East, experienced a mix of December drought improvement and deterioration. In drought-affected areas of the country, agricultural impacts included poor rangeland and pasture conditions, as well as low streamflow and reduced surface water supplies. In the Southeast, a late-month cold snap resulted in additional pasture concerns, as hard freezes may have burned back any recent grass growth related to record-setting warmth. Despite the late-month cool spell, freezes did not reach into key winter agricultural regions of peninsular Florida and Deep South Texas. However, by the morning of January 1, 2026, frost and light freezes were briefly reported as far south as Florida's Lake Okeechobee. Farther west, the Plains' winter wheat lacked a protective snow cover, although the absence of extreme cold in most production areas prevented major crop concerns. Amid December wetness, winter wheat-related drought concerns eased in Montana. Conversely, portions of the southern Plains' wheat production area remained quite dry. December Agricultural Summary Much of the central and western U.S. experienced above-normal temperatures. Parts of the northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and High Plains recorded monthly temperatures 6°F or more above normal. In contrast, portions of the Midwest and Northeast recorded below-normal temperatures. Meanwhile, much of the central and southern regions-especially Texas, Oklahoma, and surrounding states-experienced severe dryness, with monthly precipitation amounts as low as 2 to 25 percent of normal. Conversely, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Some localized areas in the Pacific Southwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes also recorded above-normal precipitation. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2025-2026 grapefruit crop is forecast at 311,000 tons, up 4 percent from last season's final utilization. The California forecast, at 4.30 million boxes (172,000 tons), is up 5 percent from the last season. The Texas forecast at 2.20 million boxes (88,000 tons), is up 10 percent from the 2024-2025 season. The Florida forecast, at 1.20 million boxes (51,000 tons), is down 8 percent from last season. Lemons: The 2025-2026 United States lemon crop is forecast at 1.08 million tons, down 3 percent from last season's final utilization. The California forecast, at 25.0 million boxes (1.00 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast. The Arizona forecast, at 1.15 million boxes (46,000 tons), is up 3 percent from last year. In Florida, lemon production is forecast at 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons), up 4 percent from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 1.10 million tons, down 10 percent from last season's final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 27.0 million boxes (1.08 million tons), is down 10 percent from the previous forecast. The Florida tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 400,000 boxes (19,000 tons), is unchanged from last year. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2025, totaled 81.7 million tons, up less than 1 percent from December 1, 2024. Disappearance from May 1, 2025 - December 1, 2025, totaled 65.5 million tons, up 6 percent from the same period in 2024. Record low December 1 hay stock levels were estimated in Rhode Island. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.6 percent. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 250,000 tons, ranging from 2,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times. The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 6.1 10.6 250 2 843 5 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Anthony Prillaman, Acting Chief, Crops Branch............................................................ (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables, and Special Crops Section (202) 236-2428 Joshua Bates - Asparagus, Hemp, Maple Syrup, Soybeans (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings, Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Plums, Prunes (202) 690-1042 Noemi Guindin - Crop Progress and Condition, Kiwifruit (202) 720-2127 Michelle Harder - Hay, Kale, Peanuts, Raspberries................................................... (202) 690-8533 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions Proso Millet, Rye, Tobacco..................................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Barley, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Tomatoes (202) 720-7235 James Johanson - Dry Edible Beans, Lettuce, Macadamias, Wheat (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Beets, Corn, Flaxseed, Pears, Rice, Sweet Corn (202) 720-9526 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios................................................... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Becky Sommer - Cabbage, Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum, Walnuts, Strawberries (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Blueberries, Canola, Mustard Seed, Rapeseed, Safflower, Spinach, Sunflower............................................................................. (202) 720-7369 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Oats, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Watermelons........................... (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans.......................................................................... (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. 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