SUMMARY: OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS August 28, 1997 August 1997, AES-15 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS will be available within 1-2 weeks following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports Forecast at $58.5 Billion, Second Highest on Record The initial fiscal 1998 projection of U.S. agricultural exports is $58.5 billion, up $2 billion from the fiscal 1997 forecast and second only to the fiscal 1996 record. The projected increase in value is about equally divided between bulk and high value product exports. Expanding exports of grains, meat, and horticultural products account for much of the prospective gain. The only major category expected to show a year-to-year drop in export value is oilseeds and products. Record soybean crops in the United States and Brazil are expected to lead to sharply lower prices. The fiscal 1997 forecast of $56.5 billion is unchanged from May. Export volume is projected to reach 161.4 million tons in fiscal 1998, second only to the fiscal 1995 record. Major bulk commodities are projected to rise to 118.5 million tons from the 103.5 million estimated for 1997, as grain and oilseed exports increase. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1998 are projected at $38 billion, up 6 percent from the revised 1997 figure of $36 billion. The import growth rate, however, is expected to slow as coffee imports stabilize. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is projected at $20.5 billion in fiscal 1998, unchanged from the revised fiscal 1997 forecast. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1993-1998 -- Year ending September 30 -- --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast : Fiscal Item : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Fiscal 1997 : 1998 : : : : : May : Aug. : Projected --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 42.7 43.9 54.6 59.8 56.5 56.5 58.5 : Imports : 24.6 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.5 36.0 38.0 : Trade : balance : 18.1 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.0 20.5 20.5 : : -- Million metric tons -- Export : volume : 146.4 127.5 169.7 158.4 143.5 144.3 161.4 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 12, 1997, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-June : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 : Fiscal Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : 1998 : : : : May : Aug. :Projected ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 16.314 12.521 21.553 16.0 16.1 17.3 Wheat & flour : 4.923 2.835 7.032 3.8 4.0 4.6 Rice : .773 .803 1.004 1.0 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 7.430 5.600 9.338 6.9 6.9 7.5 Corn : 6.709 4.980 8.369 6.1 6.1 6.8 Feeds and fodders : 2.032 2.037 2.627 2.6 2.6 2.5 : Oilseeds and products : 7.757 9.551 9.670 10.8 10.8 9.9 Soybeans : 5.159 6.112 6.312 7.0 6.9 6.1 Soybean meal : .935 1.505 1.305 1.6 1.7 1.4 Soybean oil : .241 .384 .272 .5 .5 .6 : Livestock products : 6.291 5.693 8.067 8.3 7.9 8.7 Beef, pork & variety : meats : 3.434 2.884 4.343 4.6 4.2 4.8 Hides & skins, incl. : furs : 1.260 1.300 1.677 1.7 1.7 1.8 Poultry & products : 1.996 2.165 2.730 2.9 3.0 3.0 Dairy products : .563 .584 .719 .7 .8 .8 Tobacco, unmanufactured : 1.173 1.391 1.393 1.4 1.6 1.6 Cotton & linters : 2.788 2.268 3.028 2.8 2.7 2.8 Seeds : .586 .754 .727 .9 .9 .9 Horticultural products : 7.499 7.939 10.019 10.6 10.6 11.2 Fruits & preparations : 2.448 2.493 3.311 3.3 3.4 3.5 Vegetables & prepara- : tions : 1.869 2.025 2.423 2.6 2.6 2.7 Tree nuts & preps : 1.008 .956 1.374 1.4 1.3 1.4 Sugar, tropical, and : other : 1.390 1.507 1.889 2.1 2.1 2.3 : Total 3/ : 46.357 44.373 59.795 56.5 56.5 58.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1996-1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-June : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 : Fiscal Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : 1998 : : : : May : Aug. :Projected ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 23.405 15.547 33.716 21.5 23.5 30.0 Wheat flour : .340 .355 .470 .6 .5 .5 Rice : 2.227 2.087 2.831 2.5 2.5 2.7 Coarse grains 2/ : 48.125 41.635 58.656 52.8 52.2 58.2 Corn : 43.591 36.885 52.681 46.5 46.0 52.0 Feeds & fodders : 9.574 9.371 12.065 12.2 12.2 12.4 Oilseeds and products : 25.066 29.321 30.759 33.3 33.0 36.2 Soybeans : 18.557 21.215 22.372 24.1 23.7 26.0 Soybean meal : 4.043 5.450 5.445 6.1 6.1 6.6 Soybean oil : .399 .693 .450 .8 .8 1.0 Beef, pork & variety meats: 1.097 .982 1.410 1.5 1.4 1.6 Poultry meat : 1.720 1.851 2.330 2.5 2.5 2.6 Animal fats : 1.148 .768 1.376 1.0 .9 .9 Cotton & linters : 1.562 1.356 1.703 1.6 1.6 1.6 Horticultural products 4/ : 5.446 5.709 7.139 7.5 7.5 7.7 Other : 4.538 4.878 5.916 6.5 6.5 7.0 Total agriculture 124.248 113.860 158.371 143.5 144.3 161.4 Major bulk products 5/ : 93.876 81.840 119.278 102.5 103.5 118.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Production measured in liters not included. 5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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