HDR1011800200100831951500 OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY August 31, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Agricultural Exports Forecast at $53 Billion in Fiscal 1995, $54.5 billion in Fiscal 1996 The fiscal 1995 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $1.5 billion to $53 billion. Improved prospects for corn, oilseeds, and livestock products have offset slower cotton shipments. This forecast reflects strengthening export prices for grains and rising foreign demand for U.S. corn, soybeans and products, red meat, and poultry products since May. Export volume is expected to be 163.1 million tons, the highest since fiscal 1980. U.S. exports in fiscal 1996 are projected to rise to $54.5 billion. Stronger expected coarse grain, wheat, oilseed, and horticultural exports will boost value despite reduced prospects for cotton. Horticultural exports are expected to rise nearly $1 billion, and slight increases are projected for livestock and poultry product exports. Export volume is projected to decline to 156.5 million tons because of continued tight global grain and oilseed markets and higher prices. The fiscal 1995 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is reduced $500 million to $29 billion because of lower than anticipated beef import value and sharply reduced coffee prices. Import value is expected to remain at $29 billion in fiscal 1996. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at $24 billion in fiscal 1995 and $25.5 billion in fiscal 1996. The 1996 surplus would be the highest since fiscal 1981's record $26.6 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996 -- Year beginning October 1 -- : : : : : Forecast : Projected Item : 1991 : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : : : : : May : Aug. : : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 51.5 53.0 54.5 : Imports : 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.5 29.0 29.0 : Trade : balance : 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 22.0 24.0 25.5 : : -- Million tons -- Export : volume : 129.4 143.6 146.4 127.4 159.2 163.1 156.5 : This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 11, 1995, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1993-96 : October-June : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995 : Fiscal Commodity : 1993/94:1994/95 : 1994 : Forecast : 1996 : : : : May : Aug. : Projected : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 10.258 12.555 13.413 16.0 16.9 17.5 Wheat & flour : 3.204 3.596 4.228 5.1 5.0 5.4 Rice : .708 .820 .891 .9 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 3.545 5.137 4.569 6.4 7.0 7.1 Corn : 2.966 4.559 3.817 5.6 6.2 6.4 Feeds and fodders : 1.732 1.893 2.277 2.2 2.5 2.6 : Oilseeds and products : 5.638 7.309 6.975 8.2 8.7 8.9 Soybeans : 3.514 4.253 4.161 4.8 5.0 5.3 Soybean meal : .806 .844 1.013 .9 1.0 1.0 Soybean oil : .296 .721 .433 .8 .8 .6 : Livestock products : 4.616 5.769 6.320 6.9 7.3 7.6 Beef, pork & variety meats : 2.325 2.909 3.206 3.6 3.8 3.9 Hides & skins, incl. furs : 1.027 1.283 1.423 1.6 1.7 1.8 Poultry & products : 1.266 1.618 1.720 2.1 2.2 2.4 Dairy products : .642 .606 .832 .8 .8 .9 Tobacco, unmanufactured : 1.075 1.116 1.260 1.4 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters : 1.774 3.126 2.306 4.0 3.7 2.9 Seeds : .515 .560 .619 .7 .7 .7 Horticultural products : 6.017 6.956 8.098 9.4 9.4 10.3 Fruits & preparations : 2.189 2.425 3.047 3.4 3.4 3.7 Vegetables & preparations : 1.654 2.014 2.169 2.6 2.6 2.9 Tree nuts & preparations : .889 .830 1.124 1.1 1.1 1.2 Sugar, tropical, and other : 1.454 1.450 1.931 2.0 2.0 2.0 : Total 3/ : 33.255 41.066 43.474 51.5 53.0 54.5 : Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1993-96 : October-June : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995 : Fiscal Commodity : 1993/94:1994/95 : 1994 : Forecast : 1996 : : : : May : Aug. : Projected : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 23.298 22.907 31.132 33.0 31.0 30.5 Wheat flour : .725 .894 1.037 1.1 1.2 1.0 Rice : 1.903 3.017 2.438 3.0 3.6 3.4 Coarse grains 2/ : 29.908 47.418 39.845 58.4 61.8 56.5 Corn : 24.885 42.085 33.057 51.5 55.0 51.0 Feeds & fodders : 9.084 10.147 11.797 12.4 13.3 13.3 Oilseeds and products : 19.602 27.629 24.154 31.1 32.4 31.2 Soybeans : 13.642 19.267 16.364 21.8 22.5 21.8 Soybean meal : 3.806 4.800 4.859 5.4 5.7 5.3 Soybean oil : .469 1.089 .694 1.1 1.2 1.0 Beef, pork & variety meats : .742 .916 1.025 1.1 1.2 1.2 Poultry meat : 1.001 1.373 1.364 1.8 1.8 2.0 Animal fats :1 .008 1.344 1.341 1.5 1.7 1.7 Cotton & linters : 1.296 1.863 1.639 2.3 2.1 1.7 Horticultural products : 4.884 5.469 6.600 7.5 7.5 8.0 Other : 3.335 3.409 5.042 6.0 5.5 6.0 Total agriculture : 97.704 127.296 127.414 159.2 163.1 156.5 Major bulk products 4/ : 70.047 94.472 91.418 118.5 121.0 113.9 : 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Printed copies of the full text of Agricultural Exports will be available in about 2 weeks. For further information, contact Joel Greene at (202) 219-0816. Summaries and text of Situation and Outlook reports are also available electronically. For details, call (202) 720-9045. END-END-END