OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY May 29, 1998 May 1998, AES-18 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available 1-2 weeks following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED TO $55 BILLION The forecast for fiscal year 1998 U.S. agricultural exports is lowered to $55 billion, $1 billion less than forecast in February. The primary reason for the decrease is increased export competition for corn and wheat. Since February, U.S. corn exports are lowered 4 million tons to 37.5 million and the expected value dropped to $4.3 billion. Wheat export volume and prices also are lowered, reducing expected wheat and flour exports to $4.1 billion and 26.5 million tons. Soybean exports are now projected at $6.5 billion, 3 percent less than February, with quantity down 4 percent. Stronger prices and higher export volume for most oilseed products more than offset the decline for soybeans. Continued poor economic performance and increased competition slowed exports to Asia. The export forecast for Western Europe is also lowered because of increased competition. In contrast, shipments to Mexico and Canada are stronger than anticipated, and their forecasts are raised. Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural import projections remain unchanged at $38 billion. Vegetables now exceed coffee as the leading and fastest growing import. The export surplus is now forecast at $17 billion, 20 percent less than in 1997 and the smallest since fiscal 1991. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998 -- Year ending September 30 -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 Forecast 1998 Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 56.0 55.0 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 38.0 38.0 Trade balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 18.0 17.0 --Million metric tons -- Export volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 149.2 142.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1998, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 8.913 7.607 16.466 15.3 14.3 Wheat & flour 1.960 2.088 4.263 4.4 4.1 Rice 0.578 0.641 0.962 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 4.190 2.787 6.921 5.6 5.0 Corn 3.732 2.279 6.107 4.9 4.3 Feeds and fodders 1.362 1.262 2.673 2.6 2.5 Oilseeds and products 7.414 8.005 11.437 11.2 11.6 Soybeans 4.961 4.972 6.950 6.7 6.5 Soybean meal 1.113 1.373 1.74 61.4 1.8 Soybean oil 0.341 0.546 0.516 0.7 0.8 Livestock products 3.721 3.948 7.706 7.5 7.8 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.842 2.040 3.977 4.0 4.0 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.860 0.726 1.693 1.5 1.5 Poultry & products 1.494 1.388 2.872 2.9 2.7 Poultry meat 1.311 1.193 2.516 NA 2.3 Dairy products 0.360 0.476 0.842 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.893 0.756 1.612 1.6 1.4 Cotton & linters 1.547 1.516 2.737 2.7 2.6 Seeds 0.596 0.572 0.924 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 5.308 5.202 10.598 10.8 10.6 Fruits & preparations 1.579 1.524 3.412 3.3 3.3 Vegetables & preparations 1.302 1.411 2.655 2.8 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 0.776 0.706 1.283 1.2 1.2 Sugar, tropical, and other 0.994 1.004 2.064 2.2 2.2 Total 3/ 31.240 30.474 57.258 56.0 55.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. NA = not available; first estimate made in May 1998. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Wheat 10.703 12.962 24.531 28.0 26.0 Wheat flour 0.256 0.247 0.504 0.5 0.5 Rice 1.501 1.765 2.564 2.7 2.8 Coarse grains 1/ 0.746 23.215 53.027 47.9 43.7 Corn 27.284 18.955 46.579 41.5 37.5 Feeds & fodders 6.225 5.893 12.259 12.7 11.7 Oilseeds and products 23.681 26.566 33.942 36.7 36.8 Soybeans 17.641 18.644 24.027 25.9 24.8 Soybean meal 4.109 5.527 6.345 6.8 7.7 Soybean oil 0.621 0.883 0.924 1.1 1.3 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.628 0.770 1.356 1.4 1.5 Poultry meat 1.258 1.350 2.553 2.6 2.6 Animal fats 0.477 0.600 1.028 0.9 1.1 Cotton & linters 0.906 0.934 1.648 1.6 1.6 Horticultural products 3.681 3.756 7.539 7.7 7.7 Other 1.989 1.741 6.366 6.5 6.2 Total agriculture 83.332 81.172 147.317 149.2 142.2 Major bulk products 2/ 61.497 57.520 105.797 106.1 98.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Region 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Asia 13.339 11.309 23.847 21.5 20.3 Japan 5.635 5.189 10.705 10.3 9.8 China 1.223 1.113 1.774 1.6 1.6 Hong Kong 0.808 0.848 1.640 1.7 1.7 Taiwan 1.448 1.267 2.588 2.4 2.3 South Korea 1.983 1.196 3.287 2.4 2.0 Southeast Asia 1.849 1.313 3.123 2.3 2.2 Indonesia 0.449 0.310 0.768 NA 0.5 Philippines 0.455 0.352 0.898 0.8 0.7 Malaysia 0.385 0.191 0.580 NA 0.3 Thailand 0.396 0.324 0.550 NA 0.4 South Asia 0.393 0.378 0.728 0.8 0.7 Western Hemisphere 8.281 9.496 16.592 17.7 18.4 Canada 3.197 3.464 6.620 6.9 7.0 Mexico 2.529 3.042 5.077 5.8 6.0 Brazil 0.271 0.338 0.461 0.5 0.5 Venezuela 0.281 0.294 0.548 0.6 0.6 Other Latin America 2.003 2.357 3.886 3.9 4.3 Western Europe 5.793 5.602 9.402 9.5 9.0 European Union 5.550 5.400 8.785 8.8 8.5 Central and Eastern Europe 0.209 0.192 0.301 0.3 0.3 New Independent States 1/ 0.872 0.788 1.593 1.2 1.2 Russia 0.687 0.630 1.281 1.0 1.0 Middle East 1.233 1.288 2.506 2.5 2.6 Turkey 0.345 0.313 0.728 NA 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.284 0.314 0.589 0.6 0.6 Africa 0.986 1.261 2.231 2.3 2.3 North Africa 0.589 0.918 1.457 1.5 1.6 Egypt 0.366 0.570 0.918 0.9 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.398 0.343 0.774 0.8 0.7 Oceania 0.248 0.274 0.534 0.6 0.6 Total 2/ 31.241 30.475 57.258 56.0 55.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = not available; first estimate made in May 1998. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Totals include transshipments through Canada, but transshipments are not distributed by country as previously. 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