OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary December 4, 2000 December 2000, ERS-AES-28 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PROSPECTIVE 2001 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ELEVATED TO $53 BILLION Strong global economic growth and reduced competition are pushing U.S. agricultural exports up to a projected $53 billion in fiscal 2001, $2.1 billion over the final fiscal 2000 figure of $50.9 billion. Much of the gain is expected in Asia, as that region's economic growth continues recovering from the financial crisis of 1997-1999. Exports to Canada and Mexico also are likely to rise. However, depreciation of the euro against the dollar is expected to continue to dampen U.S. exports to Western Europe. Projected corn exports are raised significantly from the August forecast, primarily reflecting reduced export competition from Argentina. Similarly, prospects for livestock and products exports have sharply improved. Expected export value of wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, and horticultural products also is increased. U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at $40 billion, $1.1 billion more than in fiscal 2000 and up $500 million from August. Much of the growth is expected to come from Canada and Mexico. Although still well below the 1996 record, the expected 2001 surplus in U.S. agricultural trade is boosted to $13 billion, an 8-percent gain over fiscal 2000. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1996-2001 Year ending September 30 Item 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Fiscal 2001 Aug. Nov. Billion dollars Exports 59.9 57.4 53.7 49.2 50.9 51.5 53.0 Imports 32.5 35.7 36.8 37.3 38.9 39.5 40.0 Balance 27.4 21.7 16.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 13.0 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Nov. 9, 2000, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-2001 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Forecast Commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Aug. Nov. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 16.534 14.128 14.400 13.886 13.6 14.6 Wheat & flour 4.323 3.898 3.839 3.523 3.7 3.8 Rice 0.962 1.133 1.015 0.908 0.8 0.8 Coarse grains 2/ 6.929 4.996 5.607 5.281 5.2 5.8 Corn 6.114 4.267 5.044 4.602 4.6 5.3 Feeds and fodders 2.673 2.412 2.240 2.479 2.2 2.5 Oilseeds and products 11.519 11.162 8.735 8.546 8.7 9.0 Soybeans 6.985 6.146 4.757 5.074 5.0 5.4 Soybean meal 1.747 1.944 1.066 1.226 1.2 1.3 Soybean oil 0.515 0.882 0.607 0.279 0.4 0.3 Livestock products 7.678 7.589 7.199 8.596 8.4 8.8 Beef, pork & variety meats 3.981 4.043 4.134 5.035 5.1 5.2 Hides & skins, incl. furs 1.695 1.359 1.113 1.476 1.2 1.5 Poultry & products 2.869 2.713 2.068 2.260 2.2 2.2 Poultry meat 2.512 2.348 1.755 1.962 1.9 1.9 Dairy products 0.844 0.895 0.873 0.951 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.612 1.448 1.376 1.245 1.3 1.2 Cotton & linters 2.736 2.535 1.323 1.833 2.6 2.4 Seeds 0.829 0.805 0.807 0.789 0.9 0.8 Horticultural products 10.624 10.319 10.299 10.537 10.7 10.9 Fruits & preparations 3.422 3.197 3.275 3.361 3.4 3.6 Vegetables & preparations 2.650 2.806 2.820 2.988 3.0 3.0 Tree nuts & preparations 1.282 1.215 1.080 0.987 0.9 1.0 Sugar & tropical products 2.117 2.109 2.090 2.260 2.2 2.3 Major bulk products 3/ 23.447 20.056 17.817 17.764 18.5 19.3 Total 4/ 57.364 53.707 49.171 50.905 51.5 53.0 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-2001 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Forecast Commodity 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Aug. Nov. Million metric tons Wheat 24.905 25.871 28.817 27.818 29.0 28.7 Wheat flour 0.504 0.460 0.951 0.812 1.0 0.8 Rice 2.565 3.314 3.086 3.310 3.2 3.1 Coarse grains 1/ 53.090 44.023 57.720 56.535 60.2 62.8 Corn 46.638 37.755 51.949 49.371 53.5 57.0 Feeds & fodders 12.269 11.693 11.751 13.315 11.6 13.0 Oilseeds and products 34.090 36.166 33.698 36.493 37.8 36.7 Soybeans 24.138 23.395 23.029 26.058 27.5 26.4 Soybean meal 6.345 8.464 6.461 6.651 6.7 6.7 Soybean oil 0.922 1.397 1.076 0.624 0.8 0.8 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.358 1.558 1.607 1.845 1.8 1.8 Poultry meat 2.549 2.664 2.416 2.847 2.7 2.8 Animal fats 1.047 1.356 1.387 1.206 1.2 1.2 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.238 0.208 0.205 0.183 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 1.648 1.602 0.919 1.539 1.8 1.7 Horticultural products 7.496 7.415 7.337 7.732 7.7 7.7 Sugar & tropical products 1.190 1.283 1.277 1.276 1.3 1.3 Tot. maj. bulk prod. 2/ 106.584 98.412 113.776 115.442 121.9 122.9 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-2001 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Forecast Region 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Nov. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 23.866 19.703 18.463 19.688 21.2 Japan 10.703 9.462 8.933 9.353 9.8 China 1.774 1.515 1.011 1.474 1.6 Hong Kong 1.640 1.568 1.264 1.255 1.3 Taiwan 2.588 1.975 2.047 2.011 2.1 South Korea 3.292 2.257 2.482 2.569 3.1 Southeast Asia 3.139 2.293 2.218 2.602 2.9 Indonesia 0.769 0.530 0.499 0.681 0.8 Philippines 0.899 0.751 0.735 0.866 0.9 Malaysia 0.580 0.310 0.332 0.284 0.4 Thailand 0.565 0.452 0.409 0.492 0.5 South Asia 0.727 0.626 0.499 0.416 0.4 Western Hemisphere 16.585 18.368 17.446 18.159 19.0 Canada 6.612 7.013 6.951 7.520 7.8 Mexico 5.072 5.953 5.672 6.329 6.8 Brazil 0.458 0.563 0.366 0.253 0.3 Venezuela 0.552 0.515 0.458 0.404 0.4 Other Latin America 3.891 4.324 4.000 3.653 3.7 Western Europe 9.617 8.858 7.528 6.712 6.6 European Union 8.997 8.521 6.958 6.373 6.3 Central and Eastern Europe 0.316 0.320 0.190 0.167 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 1.593 1.455 0.881 0.934 0.8 Russia 1.281 1.103 0.532 0.671 0.6 Middle East 2.562 2.285 1.978 2.363 2.4 Turkey 0.742 0.658 0.448 0.701 0.8 Saudi Arabia 0.630 0.534 0.468 0.482 0.5 Africa 2.265 2.175 2.160 2.272 2.3 North Africa 1.480 1.475 1.468 1.565 1.5 Egypt 0.928 0.939 1.002 1.094 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.785 0.699 0.693 0.707 0.7 Oceania 0.534 0.548 0.502 0.490 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.1 Total 2/ 57.364 53.707 49.171 50.905 53.0 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country prior to 2000, but are included in the total only for 2000 and 2001. 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