OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE -- SUMMARY August 30, 1999 August 1999, ERS-AES-23 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 2000 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS TO RISE TO $50 BILLION U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $50 billion in fiscal year 2000. This is 2 percent above the fiscal 1999 forecast, which is unchanged at $49 billion. At $38 billion, expected imports increase 1 percent from $37.5 billion in 1999. The trade surplus rises to $12 billion, a 4-percent gain. Fiscal 2000 export prospects largely reflect anticipated higher global economic growth, especially in Asia, and reduced export competition for some commodities. However, in general, continued low prices limit growth in export value. Projected livestock product exports show the largest gain in value, up 5 percent to $10.8 billion, as prices rise modestly. The largest volume increase is forecast for soybeans, up 15 percent; but total oilseed and product value rises only 1 percent. Cotton export volume is up sharply, but prices remain weak. Additional wheat exports are offset by a decline in corn volume, leaving grain exports unchanged. Horticultural products rise 2 percent in value. Import gains reflect a continuation of U.S. economic growth and attractive commodity prices for imported goods. Fiscal 2000 forecasts boost imports of red meats to $3.1 billion, horticultural products to $15.3 billion, and coffee to $3.0 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1995-2000 Year ending September 30 Item 1995 1996 1997 1998 Forecast 1999 Fiscal 2000 June Aug. Projection Billion dollars Exports 54.6 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.0 49.0 50.0 Imports 29.9 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 37.5 38.0 Balance 24.7 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.5 11.5 12.0 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Aug. 12, 1999, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1998-2000 October-June Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1998 1999 1998 Forecast Projected June Aug. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 10.841 10.805 14.109 14.4 14.4 14.4 Wheat & flour 2.910 2.781 3.887 4.0 3.8 4.2 Rice 0.921 0.843 1.134 1.0 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 3.900 4.151 4.990 5.2 5.5 5.2 Corn 3.273 3.725 4.261 4.7 5.0 4.6 Feeds and fodders 1.849 1.744 2.411 2.4 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 9.680 6.826 11.090 8.1 8.2 8.3 Soybeans 5.580 3.891 6.117 4.5 4.5 4.7 Soybean meal 1.741 0.844 1.944 1.0 1.1 1.2 Soybean oil 0.711 0.522 0.881 0.6 0.6 0.4 Livestock products 5.862 5.395 7.626 7.6 7.4 7.7 Beef, pork & var. meats 3.086 3.015 4.045 4.2 4.1 4.4 Hides & skins, in. furs 1.073 0.831 1.358 1.1 1.1 1.1 Poultry & products 2.092 1.511 2.712 2.2 2.1 2.2 Poultry meat 1.809 1.272 2.347 1.8 1.7 1.8 Dairy products 0.691 0.645 0.897 0.8 0.8 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.213 1.197 1.448 1.4 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters 2.105 1.103 2.537 1.4 1.4 1.7 Seeds 0.716 0.674 0.838 0.8 0.8 0.9 Horticultural products 7.865 7.765 10.318 10.3 10.3 10.5 Fruits & preparations 2.368 2.401 3.202 3.3 3.3 3.5 Vegetables & prep. 2.185 2.190 2.805 2.9 2.9 2.7 Tree nuts & prep. 0.938 0.855 1.215 1.1 1.1 1.3 Sugar & tropical prod. 1.531 1.509 2.051 2.0 2.0 2.0 Major bulk products 3/ 16.529 13.866 20.013 17.4 17.5 18.1 Total 4/ 42.598 37.431 53.629 49.0 49.0 50.0 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous product not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1998-2000 October-June Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Fiscal 2000 Commodity 1998 1999 1998 Forecast Projected June Aug. Million metric tons Wheat 18.397 20.433 25.800 28.8 28.5 31.0 Wheat flour 0.328 0.652 0.459 0.7 0.9 0.8 Rice 2.687 2.543 3.315 3.2 3.2 3.3 Coarse grains 1/ 33.075 41.899 43.960 51.8 55.3 54.4 Corn 27.774 37.619 37.697 46.5 50.0 48.5 Feeds & fodders 8.962 9.082 11.688 12.3 11.8 11.9 Oilseeds and products 31.773 27.008 36.018 31.7 32.3 36.7 Soybeans 21.016 18.550 23.287 21.2 21.7 24.9 Soybean meal 7.387 5.110 8.464 6.2 6.3 7.3 Soybean oil 1.130 0.896 1.396 1.1 1.1 0.9 Beef, pork & var. meats 1.175 1.175 1.559 1.7 1.6 1.7 Poultry meat 2.070 1.738 2.663 2.3 2.4 2.4 Animal fats 0.477 0.442 1.365 1.5 1.4 1.4 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.177 0.178 0.208 0.2 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 1.319 0.753 1.602 0.9 0.9 1.3 Horticultural products 2/ 5.743 5.635 7.414 7.5 7.4 7.6 Sugar & tropical prod. 2/ 0.912 0.971 1.267 1.3 1.3 1.3 Major bulk products 3/ 76.671 84.356 98.172 106.1 109.8 115.1 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Excludes all exports measured in hectoliters, pieces, dozens, or numbers. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1998-99 October-June Fiscal Fiscal 1999 Region 1998 1999 1998 Forecast June Aug. June Aug. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid. East) 15.801 14.045 19.706 17.2 17.9 Japan 7.554 6.879 9.469 8.4 8.8 China 1.335 0.742 1.514 1.1 0.9 Hong Kong 1.232 0.962 1.568 1.3 1.3 Taiwan 1.628 1.562 1.975 1.6 1.9 South Korea 1.781 1.836 2.258 2.2 2.3 Southeast Asia 1.786 1.664 2.288 2.0 2.2 Indonesia 0.397 0.380 0.529 0.4 0.5 Philippines 0.562 0.532 0.751 0.7 0.7 Malaysia 0.248 0.238 0.310 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.385 0.329 0.449 0.4 0.4 South Asia 0.479 0.391 0.626 0.6 0.5 Western Hemisphere 14.076 13.243 18.385 17.8 17.5 Canada 5.343 5.213 7.022 6.8 6.9 Mexico 4.486 4.240 5.956 6.2 5.6 Brazil 0.475 0.307 0.566 0.4 0.4 Venezuela 0.403 0.365 0.516 0.5 0.5 Other Latin America 3.368 3.117 4.325 3.9 4.1 Western Europe 7.444 5.983 8.859 7.5 7.5 European Union 7.178 5.733 8.522 7.3 7.1 Central and Eastern Europe 0.266 0.156 0.320 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 1.169 0.489 1.456 1.4 1.2 Russia 0.929 0.280 1.103 1.1 0.9 Middle East 1.821 1.489 2.286 2.1 2.0 Turkey 0.503 0.370 0.658 0.6 0.5 Saudi Arabia 0.435 0.364 0.535 0.5 0.5 Africa 1.612 1.598 2.174 2.0 2.1 North Africa 1.107 1.080 1.475 1.3 1.4 Egypt 0.682 0.747 0.939 0.9 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.505 0.518 0.699 0.7 0.7 Oceania 0.408 0.375 0.545 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.053 0.000 0.3 0.1 Total 2/ 16.231 14.333 57.261 49.0 49.0 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country in fiscal 1998, but included in the total only for 1999. 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