OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS June 1, 1998 May 1998, AES-18 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #AES, $24/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED TO $55 BILLION The forecast for fiscal year 1998 U.S. agricultural exports is lowered to $55 billion, $1 billion less than forecast in February. The primary reason for the decrease is increased export competition for corn and wheat. Since February, U.S. corn exports are lowered 4 million tons to 37.5 million and the expected value dropped to $4.3 billion. Wheat export volume and prices also are lowered, reducing expected wheat and flour exports to $4.1 billion and 26.5 million tons. Soybean exports are now projected at $6.5 billion, 3 percent less than February, with quantity down 4 percent. Stronger prices and higher export volume for most oilseed products more than offset the decline for soybeans. Continued poor economic performance and increased competition slowed exports to Asia. The export forecast for Western Europe is also lowered because of increased competition. In contrast, shipments to Mexico and Canada are stronger than anticipated, and their forecasts are raised. Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural import projections remain unchanged at $38 billion. Vegetables now exceed coffee as the leading and fastest growing import. The export surplus is now forecast at $17 billion, 20 percent less than in 1997 and the smallest since fiscal 1991. This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1998, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998 -- Year ending September 30 -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 Forecast 1998 Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 56.0 55.0 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 38.0 38.0 Trade balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 18.0 17.0 --Million metric tons -- Export volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 149.2 142.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1998, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released May 29, 1998. Contents Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Import Highlights Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1994-98 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-98 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-98 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-98 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1997-98 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1997-98 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1997-98 Coordinator (ERS): Carolyn Whitton (202)694-5287 Leader, Trade Data Analysis Trade Analysis Branch Market & Trade Economics Div. Economic Research Service(ERS) Coordinator (FAS): Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922 Special Assistant Office of Deputy Administrator Commodity and Marketing Programs Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250 The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS and the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are area code 202. Commodity Information--ERS: Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 694-5264); Ed Allen (Wheat/Coarse Grain, 694-5288); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 694-5289); Nathan Childs (Rice, 694-5292); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 694-5273); Shayle Shagam (Beef, 694-5186); Mildred Haley (Pork, 694-5176); Dave Harvey (Poultry, 694-5177); Gary Lucier (Horticulture, 694-5253); Steve MacDonald (Cotton, 694-5305); Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 694-5164); Andy Jerardo (Macroeconomic projections 694-5323). Commodity Information--FAS: Peter Burr (Tobacco, & Seeds 720-9497); Joel Greene (Dairy & Livestock 720-6553); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-1147); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847); Ron Lord (Cotton, 720-9510); Nancy Morgan (Poultry, 720-1372); Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899). Regional information, ERS: Chris Bolling (Brazil, 694-5212); Nancy Cochrane (East Europe, 694-5143); Hunter Colby (China, 694-5215); Fred Crook (Hong Kong, 694-5217); John Dyck (Japan & South Korea, 694-5221); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 694-5222); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 694-5225); Susan Leetma (European Union, 694-5153); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle East, 694-5152); Bill Liefert (New Independent States, 694-5156); John Link (Mexico, 694-5228); Suchada Langley (Canada, 694-5227); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 694-5241). The Outlook For Agricultural Exports is published in February, May, August, and December. The next issue will be released Aug. 28, 1998. The summary may be accessed electronically; call (202) 694-5050. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs). Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's Target Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (202) 720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Commodity Highlights The forecast for fiscal year 1998 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is reduced 2 million tons and $300 million from the February forecast to 26.5 million tons valued at $4.1 billion. The reduced outlook for wheat export volume and a slight reduction in wheat export prices reflect weak global imports and strong competition, especially from the European Union (EU). Large 1998/99 wheat crops will limit needs in a number of major importing countries. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. coarse grain exports is reduced 4.2 million tons and $600 million from February's forecast to 43.7 million tons valued at $5 billion. This downward revision is mainly due to a lower volume and a slightly reduced unit value for corn exports. The reduced outlook for U.S. corn exports, down 4 million tons and $600 million since February to 37.5 million tons valued at $4.3 billion, is mainly the result of increased competition from Argentina and China. Since February, forecasts for Argentina's and China's corn exports in market year 1997/98 were raised 1 million tons each, to 13 million and 6 million, respectively. Forecast 1998 U.S. rice exports are raised 100,000 tons to 2.8 million; but export value remains unchanged at $1 billion because of a higher proportion of rough rice in total rice exports. Latin American demand for lower-valued rough rice has increased. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. oilseed and product exports is raised $400 million to $11.6 billion, while overall volume remains largely unchanged, up only 100,000 tons to 36.8 million tons. Stronger prices for soybeans, soybean meal and oil, and other vegetable oils, and higher export volume for most oilseed products more than offset a downward revision in soybean export volume. U.S. soybean exports are reduced 1.1 million tons to 24.8 million tons, the result of larger than previously expected record 1997/98 South American soybean exports. At the same time, expanding world protein meal demand and reduced palm oil output support further gains in U.S. meal and oil shipments and prices. Soybean meal and oil exports are increased 1.1 million tons and $500 million to a record 9 million tons valued at $2.6 billion. Price and volume forecasts for other major vegetable oils, namely corn and sunflower oil, are also increased. The fiscal 1998 export forecast for U.S. cotton and linters is unchanged at 1.6 million tons. GSM-102 support and Cotton Program payments have helped maintain strong sales thus far in 1998. However, somewhat weaker prices lower the export value $100 million to $2.6 billion. Increased export competition, primarily from China, and weakness in Asian demand has put downward pressure on world prices. The forecast for fiscal 1998 U.S. tobacco exports remain largely unchanged at 210,000 tons, but lower prices result in a $200-million decrease to $1.4 billion. Lower prices are the result of increased world production and stocks. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products is raised $100 million from the February forecast to $11.4 billion. Gains in export volumes for red meats and animal fats offset downward revisions in red meat and poultry meat prices. The export forecast for beef, pork, and variety meats is increased 100,000 tons to 1.5 million tons due to an increase in the pace of sales to Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 8.913 7.607 16.466 15.3 14.3 Wheat & flour 1.960 2.088 4.263 4.4 4.1 Rice 0.578 0.641 0.962 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 4.190 2.787 6.921 5.6 5.0 Corn 3.732 2.279 6.107 4.9 4.3 Feeds and fodders 1.362 1.262 2.673 2.6 2.5 Oilseeds and products 7.414 8.005 11.437 11.2 11.6 Soybeans 4.961 4.972 6.950 6.7 6.5 Soybean meal 1.113 1.373 1.74 61.4 1.8 Soybean oil 0.341 0.546 0.516 0.7 0.8 Livestock products 3.721 3.948 7.706 7.5 7.8 Beef, pork & variety meats 1.842 2.040 3.977 4.0 4.0 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.860 0.726 1.693 1.5 1.5 Poultry & products 1.494 1.388 2.872 2.9 2.7 Poultry meat 1.311 1.193 2.516 NA 2.3 Dairy products 0.360 0.476 0.842 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.893 0.756 1.612 1.6 1.4 Cotton & linters 1.547 1.516 2.737 2.7 2.6 Seeds 0.596 0.572 0.924 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 5.308 5.202 10.598 10.8 10.6 Fruits & preparations 1.579 1.524 3.412 3.3 3.3 Vegetables & preparations 1.302 1.411 2.655 2.8 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 0.776 0.706 1.283 1.2 1.2 Sugar, tropical, and other 0.994 1.004 2.064 2.2 2.2 Total 3/ 31.240 30.474 57.258 56.0 55.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. NA = not available; first estimate made in May 1998. Japan and strong sales to Mexico. However, lower prices due to large domestic supplies and relatively weak Asian demand leave export value unchanged at $4 billion. Animal fat exports are raised 250,000 tons and $100 million to 1.1 million tons valued at $560 million as relatively high prices for palm stearin boost foreign demand and prices for animal fats. Poultry meat export volume remains unchanged at 2.6 million tons, but weaker prices reduce export value $200 million to $2.3 billion. Lower poultry meat prices are the result of large domestic meat supplies and downward pressures on sales prices to Russia. Despite slow sales to Korea, the U.S. export forecast for hides and skins is unchanged at $1.5 billion. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports is lowered $200 million from the February forecast to $10.6 billion. If this revised forecast is realized, actual horticultural product export value in 1998 will roughly equal 1997 sales, and this would be the first time in more than a decade an annual record is not achieved. However, export volume is expected to rise in 1998. Lower prices for tree nuts, citrus, and essential oils coupled with a strong U.S. dollar and a weak Japanese economy continue to hamper export growth in 1998. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Wheat 10.703 12.962 24.531 28.0 26.0 Wheat flour 0.256 0.247 0.504 0.5 0.5 Rice 1.501 1.765 2.564 2.7 2.8 Coarse grains 1/ 0.746 23.215 53.027 47.9 43.7 Corn 27.284 18.955 46.579 41.5 37.5 Feeds & fodders 6.225 5.893 12.259 12.7 11.7 Oilseeds and products 23.681 26.566 33.942 36.7 36.8 Soybeans 17.641 18.644 24.027 25.9 24.8 Soybean meal 4.109 5.527 6.345 6.8 7.7 Soybean oil 0.621 0.883 0.924 1.1 1.3 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.628 0.770 1.356 1.4 1.5 Poultry meat 1.258 1.350 2.553 2.6 2.6 Animal fats 0.477 0.600 1.028 0.9 1.1 Cotton & linters 0.906 0.934 1.648 1.6 1.6 Horticultural products 3.681 3.756 7.539 7.7 7.7 Other 1.989 1.741 6.366 6.5 6.2 Total agriculture 83.332 81.172 147.317 149.2 142.2 Major bulk products 2/ 61.497 57.520 105.797 106.1 98.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. On the positive side, U.S. horticultural product exports to Canada and Mexico remain strong, up 10 and 16 percent, respectively, during the first half of fiscal 1998. Economic Outlook Macroeconomic conditions in the major U.S. agricultural export markets are expected to be generally worse in 1998 than in 1997. Furthermore, the dollar's strength has made U.S. exports more expensive in foreign markets. The continued financial crisis in Asia has led to recession in some countries and weaker import demand. In the developed economies, Japan likely will sink into a recession in 1998, the first since 1974. The Japanese Government has been unable to revive domestic demand and the economy continues to suffer from a poorly performing financial sector. Canada will see slightly slower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth than in 1997, but should remain healthy at above 3 percent. The European Union, by comparison, is projected to improve overall growth closer to 3 percent as gross fixed investment significantly expands from 1997 levels. But as European currencies continue their depreciation against the dollar, trade competitiveness versus the United States should increase. The United Kingdom, however, will lose some growth momentum as industrial production shrinks and the current account balance turns negative. Europe's inflation rates and fiscal deficits have declined, allowing the start of the monetary unification process. This suggests greater exchange rate stability and continued conservative monetary and fiscal policies. A unified exchange rate against the dollar would lower transaction costs, as well as remove the costs of supporting weaker currencies. The UK, Denmark, and Sweden have decided not to take part in the monetary union at this time, which can mean losing some gains in trade if the Euro proves a stable currency. In the developing and transition countries, growth prospects are somewhat weaker than expected a few months ago. Markets in Asia are presently in varying degrees of recession or slowdowns coupled with generally much reduced purchasing power. Assuming no additional problems in the region, the substantial shrinking of intra-regional trade and the costly process of recapitalizing financial institutions will make recovery more difficult. While the economies of China and Taiwan continue to expand, growth will be significantly lower than in 1997. China and Taiwan's industrial production decelerated early in 1998 because of weaker domestic markets and much lower import demand in Japan and neighboring Asian export markets. Moreover, China's currency has lost export price competitiveness relative to Asian competitors by maintaining its peg to the U.S. dollar. In contrast to Asia, Latin America's economies are still growing, but at a slower pace than last year. Growth will slow in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Mexico's growth will decelerate from 1997's heady 7 percent rate to 4.5 percent in 1998 as domestic demand slows and the current account deficit worsens. The transition economies of Eastern Europe and parts of Africa and the Middle East also are expected to show improved growth. However, the New Independent States' expected GDP growth of less than 1 percent in 1998 is only a marginal addition to overall world demand. A major factor influencing the price competitiveness of U.S. agricultural exports is the effective exchange value of the dollar. In 1995 the dollar fell to its lowest average level since the early 1980s. Since that low, the dollar has so far gained almost 13 percent in inflation-adjusted value against other currencies as returns on U.S. financial assets have soared. Combining this deterioration in U.S. price competitiveness with much weaker growth or recession in key markets of Japan and East and Southeast Asia means weaker prospects for U.S. agricultural export growth. While import demand from Europe should reflect the area's healthier conditions, export gains, already pressured by export competition, will be further hampered by the dollar's strength relative to the EU currencies. Regional Highlights Some revisions are made in forecast regional exports since February and most of the change is in Asia and Europe. Forecast U.S. exports to Asia are dropped $1.2 billion since February to $20.3 billion, 15 percent less than in fiscal 1997. Another $500 million is taken out of expected exports to Western Europe which are now projected 4 percent under 1997, at $9 billion. Exports to Japan are reduced by $500 million since February's forecast, and are down year-to-year nearly 8.5 percent to $9.8 billion for 1998. Exports of hides and skins and corn account for much of the drop. In the year to date, corn is down 428,000 tons, while the number of bovine hides exported fell 457,000. But contrary to expectations, the quantity of U.S. exports of meats to Japan has risen by 22 percent over the first 6 months of 1997. The poor economic conditions in South Korea account for another $400 million since February. Fiscal 1998 exports to South Korea are now forecast at just $2 billion, 40 percent below 1997. Through March, U.S. exports of hides and skins to South Korea declined 47 percent from the same period of the year before, while exports of grains dropped 60 percent. Corn exports to South Korea are nearly 3 million tons less than in the first 6 months of 1997, while bovine hide exports dropped by 1.7 million hides. This forecast adds several large U.S. trading partners in Southeast Asia which have been experiencing financial difficulties recently-- Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Based on shipments to date, Malaysia and Indonesia show the steepest declines, with exports to date and Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1997-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Region 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Asia 13.339 11.309 23.847 21.5 20.3 Japan 5.635 5.189 10.705 10.3 9.8 China 1.223 1.113 1.774 1.6 1.6 Hong Kong 0.808 0.848 1.640 1.7 1.7 Taiwan 1.448 1.267 2.588 2.4 2.3 South Korea 1.983 1.196 3.287 2.4 2.0 Southeast Asia 1.849 1.313 3.123 2.3 2.2 Indonesia 0.449 0.310 0.768 NA 0.5 Philippines 0.455 0.352 0.898 0.8 0.7 Malaysia 0.385 0.191 0.580 NA 0.3 Thailand 0.396 0.324 0.550 NA 0.4 South Asia 0.393 0.378 0.728 0.8 0.7 Western Hemisphere 8.281 9.496 16.592 17.7 18.4 Canada 3.197 3.464 6.620 6.9 7.0 Mexico 2.529 3.042 5.077 5.8 6.0 Brazil 0.271 0.338 0.461 0.5 0.5 Venezuela 0.281 0.294 0.548 0.6 0.6 Other Latin America 2.003 2.357 3.886 3.9 4.3 Western Europe 5.793 5.602 9.402 9.5 9.0 European Union 5.550 5.400 8.785 8.8 8.5 Central and Eastern Europe 0.209 0.192 0.301 0.3 0.3 New Independent States 1/ 0.872 0.788 1.593 1.2 1.2 Russia 0.687 0.630 1.281 1.0 1.0 Middle East 1.233 1.288 2.506 2.5 2.6 Turkey 0.345 0.313 0.728 NA 0.6 Saudi Arabia 0.284 0.314 0.589 0.6 0.6 Africa 0.986 1.261 2.231 2.3 2.3 North Africa 0.589 0.918 1.457 1.5 1.6 Egypt 0.366 0.570 0.918 0.9 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.398 0.343 0.774 0.8 0.7 Oceania 0.248 0.274 0.534 0.6 0.6 Total 2/ 31.241 30.475 57.258 56.0 55.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = not available; first estimate made in May 1998. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Totals include transshipments through Canada, but transshipments are not distributed by country as previously. projections for the year down about 50 percent and more than 30 percent, respectively, from 1997. Declines in exports to Thailand and the Philippines so far have been somewhat less severe, and exports are projected down more than 20 percent for each. Additionally, exports to the Philippines have been reduced slightly from the February estimate to $700 million due to the pace to date. The situation in Indonesia remains the most fluid and highly dependent on the stability of the new government. U.S. shipments to Western Europe in the first half of 1998 also failed to equal the previously forecast pace, have been lowered since February, and are now projected at $9 billion, 4 percent under 1997. Europe has taken just 12,000 tons of corn in the first 6 months of 1998 compared with 1.2 million tons in the same period in 1997. In contrast, forecast U.S. agricultural exports to Canada, Mexico, and the rest of Latin America have been raised since February. Mexico has taken more meats, grains--particularly sorghum--soybeans, and cotton. Canada, despite projected slower GDP growth, shows growth in a wide variety of U.S. exports. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Export Subsidy Programs Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) sales are slightly higher in fiscal 1998 than in fiscal 1997. As of May 28, fiscal 1998 sales to countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, the New Independent States, and the Middle East equalled 2,682 tons of anhydrous milk fat (3,352 tons butter equivalent), 3,607 tons of butter, 2,792 tons of cheese, 4,948 tons of whole milk powder, and 49,744 tons of nonfat dry milk. DEIP bonuses totaled $57.4 million for the same period, up about 10 percent from fiscal 1997 bonuses for the same period. The Secretary of Agriculture has indicated his intent to reactivate the Export Enhancement Program in fiscal 1998 for frozen poultry and barley. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs Credit guarantee allocations of $5.7 billion as of May 15 are approximately 60 percent higher than fiscal 1997 allocations for the same period. Almost half of the GSM-102 allocations are for Asian countries. Importers in South Korea have been the most active users of the GSM-102 program, with registrations totaling $913 million for purchases of corn, meats, and other commodities. Importers in Thailand used one-quarter of their 1998 allocation under GSM-102 for imports of oilseeds and other products. The political upheaval in Indonesia has restrained U.S. exports under credit guarantees to that country. Importers in Malaysia and the Philippines continue to be hesitant to use credit guarantees. As of May 15, $679 million out of an allocation of $1 billion was used for Mexico's purchases under GSM-102. Mexican importers' purchases under credit guarantees have fallen from fiscal 1997 when, on May 16, GSM-102 activity reached $846 million. U.S. Food Aid Programs As of May 22, P.L. 480 Title I agreements were signed with 12 countries, with allocations totaling $118 million of the $244.5 million appropriated. These funds will provide 668,000 tons of commodity assistance, most of which is wheat. Albania, Bangladesh, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Mozambique, Russia, and Tajikistan are expected to receive commodity donations totaling $79.8 million under the Title I-funded Food for Progress (FFP) program. Title I allocations with another seven countries, totaling $74 million are in formal negotiations, but have yet not been signed. When all agreements are signed, Title I and FFP programs are expected to provide nearly 1.8 million tons of commodity assistance to 27 countries. Approximately one-third of the $837 million in Title II appropriations are for Sub-Saharan Africa, nearly 65 percent of which are emergency funds. Angola and Ethiopia are expected to receive the largest shares of the region's Title II emergency funds, while Ethiopia and Mozambique will get the largest shares of the region's Title II development funds. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Haiti will receive commodity assistance from the $30 million in Title III allocations. Import Highlights Imports of U.S. agricultural products are expected to reach $38 billion in fiscal 1998, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher than expected imports of coffee, cocoa, and vegetables are offset by lower than anticipated imports of fruits, tobacco, and rubber. Projected imports of vegetables and preparations are increased by $300 million from February. Imports of fruits and fruit juices, however, are revised downward by $200 million. Total horticultural imports are expected to reach $14.4 billion in fiscal 1998, up $100 million from the February forecast. Projected imports of animals and products are unchanged from the February forecast. Grains and feed imports are revised down $100 million, while volume is reduced by 700,000 tons. Coffee imports are revised up $300 million from February due to higher than anticipated import price increases. The import unit value for the first half of fiscal 1998 was 33 percent higher than a year ago. Projected coffee volume remains unchanged from February at 1.2 million tons and unchanged from the total for fiscal 1997. Imports of cocoa and cocoa products are raised $200 million to $1.8 billion in fiscal 1998. Projected volume of imported cocoa is increased by 200,000 tons. Oilseed products are increased $100 million to $2.2 billion, while the volume is boosted 400,000 tons. These upward revisions are offset by downward revisions in imports of rubber, tobacco, and other products. Projected rubber imports are Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1997-1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Animals and products 3.160 3.397 6.426 6.9 6.9 Live Animals 0.752 0.882 1.525 1.6 1.7 Red Meats 1.204 1.320 2.583 2.8 2.7 Dairy Products 0.663 0.633 1.273 1.4 1.4 Horticultural product 6.496 7.084 12.673 14.3 14.4 Fruits, inc. juices 2.129 2.024 4.138 4.4 4.2 Bananas 0.580 0.585 1.218 1.3 1.3 Vegetables and preps. 2.014 2.302 3.604 4.0 4.3 Nuts and preps. 0.279 0.340 0.547 0.7 0.7 Wine & malt beverages 1.401 1.659 3.068 3.8 3.8 Nursery & cut flowers 0.503 0.567 0.974 1.2 1.2 Grains and feeds 1.485 1.506 2.941 3.2 3.1 Grains 0.520 0.451 0.979 0.9 0.9 Feeds & grain prod. 0.965 1.055 1.962 2.3 2.2 Sugar & related products 0.846 0.699 1.869 1.6 1.6 Oilseeds and products 1.119 1.129 2.248 2.1 2.2 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.638 0.478 1.179 1.4 1.2 Coffee, incl. prods. 1.579 2.015 3.698 3.4 3.7 Cocoa, incl. products 0.726 0.961 1.414 1.6 1.8 Rubber and allied gum 0.710 0.528 1.315 1.3 1.1 Other products 0.964 1.120 2.026 2.2 2.0 Total 17.723 18.915 35.788 38.0 38.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- reduced from February by $200 million, while volume is unchanged at 1.1 million tons. Prices for rubber have fallen largely from the devaluation of the Indonesian currency. More than 60 percent of U.S. imported rubber is from Indonesia. Tobacco imports are decreased $200 million, with fiscal 1998 imports expected to reach 1.2 billion. Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1997-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Red meats 0.529 0.580 1.140 1.2 1.2 Cheese and casein 0.133 0.125 0.254 0.3 0.3 Horticultural products 5.938 6.483 11.242 12.6 12.8 Fruits and preps. 3.418 3.688 6.918 7.3 7.3 Bananas and plantains 1.909 2.077 3.950 4.0 4.0 Vegetables and preps. 2.412 2.676 4.122 4.8 5.1 Nuts and preps. 0.108 0.119 0.203 0.2 0.2 Wine and malt beverages 1/ 8.669 10.048 20.426 22.0 22.0 Fruit juices 1/ 15.736 13.586 29.829 30.0 28.7 Grains and feeds 4.006 3.621 8.434 8.7 8.0 Grains 2.975 2.582 5.643 5.6 5.4 Feed and grain products 1.031 1.039 2.791 2.9 2.5 Sugar, cane or beet 1.295 0.825 2.938 2.3 2.3 Oilseeds and products 1.818 2.252 3.780 3.6 4.0 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.183 0.127 0.337 0.4 0.3 Coffee, incl. products 0.623 0.599 1.212 1.2 1.2 Cocoa, incl. products 0.408 0.486 0.767 0.8 1.0 Rubber and allied gum 0.561 0.557 1.075 1.1 1.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Million hectoliters not included in horticultural totals. Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1997-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-March Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Region 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Feb. May ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Western Hemisphere 9.410 10.288 19.245 20.2 20.5 Canada 3.585 3.884 7.293 7.7 7.8 Mexico 2.126 2.472 3.941 4.2 4.8 Brazil 0.681 0.602 1.517 1.6 1.3 Colombia 0.599 0.759 1.349 NA 1.5 Chile 0.480 0.464 0.755 0.8 0.9 Central America 1.030 1.166 2.165 NA 2.3 Costa Rica 0.348 0.371 0.740 NA 0.7 Other Latin America 0.909 0.941 2.225 5.9 1.9 Western Europe 3.609 3.759 7.127 8.2 8.0 European Union 3.526 3.672 6.943 7.4 7.3 Central and Eastern Europe 0.171 0.132 0.070 0.3 0.3 New Independent States 0.044 0.024 0.252 0.1 0.1 Asia 3.288 3.194 6.409 6.4 6.3 China 0.330 0.392 0.645 0.7 0.8 Southeast Asia 1.899 1.781 3.795 3.5 3.5 Indonesia 0.764 0.686 1.591 NA 1.4 Thailand 0.446 0.391 0.897 NA 0.8 South Asia 0.291 0.343 0.687 0.7 0.7 India 0.254 0.306 0.618 NA 0.6 Oceania 0.766 0.925 1.824 1.9 1.9 Africa 0.435 0.592 0.871 0.9 0.9 Ivory Coast 0.148 0.291 0.223 NA 0.6 Middle East 0.445 0.337 0.640 0.7 0.7 Turkey 0.366 0.255 0.509 NA 0.5 Total 17.723 18.915 35.788 38.0 38.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NA = Not available; first estimate made in May 1998. 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