OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 4, 1996 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (AES-12) will be available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED TO $55.5 BILLION The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is reduced to $55.5 billion, $2.5 billion lower than projected in August, and $4.3 billion less than 1996. Sharp declines in expected prices for wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans account for most of the reduction. Increased foreign production and higher competitor exports of wheat and coarse grains has resulted in reduced prospects for U.S. shipments since August. Although soybean export volume is expected to rise, much lower prices due to the large domestic crop and improved foreign production prospects have reduced expected soybean and product exports. Total export volume is expected to decline to 146.7 million tons, and major bulk exports are forecast at 104.9 million tons, 14 million less than in 1996. High-value product (HVP) exports are expected to rise by almost $2 billion to a record $33 billion in 1997. This will account for nearly 60 percent of U.S. agricultural exports. Although prospects for livestock products have declined since August, exports of these commodities are still forecast at a record $8.7 billion. Record poultry meat and horticultural exports are also expected. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are forecast at a record $34 billion, $2 billion higher than projected in August. Animal and horticultural products are expected to provide the boost to imports in 1997. The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus is projected at $21.5 billion, down $4.5 billion from the August projection, and $5.9 billion less than the record $27.4-billion surplus in 1996. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997 ______________________________________________________________________________ -- Year ending September 30 -- : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast Item : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Fiscal 1997 : : : : : : Aug. : Dec. ___________________________________________________________________________ : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 42.5 42.7 43.9 54.6 59.8 58.0 55.5 : Imports : 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.6 32.4 32.0 34.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ Trade : balance : 18.2 18.2 17.5 25.0 27.4 26.0 21.5 : ______________________________________________________________________________ : -- Million metric tons -- Export : volume : 143.6 146.4 127.5 169.7 158.4 150.5 146.7 : ______________________________________________________________________________ This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 12, 1996, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1994-97 ______________________________________________________________________________ : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Aug. : Dec. ______________________________________________________________________________ : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 13.285 17.637 21.553 18.7 16.4 Wheat & flour : 4.228 5.201 7.032 4.8 3.9 Rice : .891 1.050 1.004 .9 .9 Coarse grains 2/ : 4.569 7.411 9.338 8.6 7.3 Corn : 3.817 6.619 8.369 7.6 6.5 Feeds and fodders : 2.150 2.511 2.627 2.9 2.7 : Oilseeds and products : 6.976 9.119 9.670 10.4 9.8 Soybeans : 4.161 5.274 6.312 6.7 6.4 Soybean meal : 1.013 1.079 1.305 1.3 1.3 Soybean oil : .433 .809 .272 .5 .4 : Livestock products : 6.343 7.808 8.067 9.3 8.7 Beef, pork & variety meats : 3.206 4.044 4.343 5.1 4.9 Hides & skins, incl. furs : 1.380 1.719 1.677 1.7 1.7 Poultry & products : 1.718 2.210 2.730 2.9 3.0 Dairy products : .810 .812 .719 .5 .7 Tobacco, unmanufactured : 1.260 1.329 1.393 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters : 2.306 3.496 3.028 2.4 2.1 Seeds : .618 .680 .727 .7 .8 Horticultural products 5/ : 8.542 9.657 10.029 9.8 10.5 Fruits & preparations : 3.047 3.263 3.319 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations : 2.169 2.538 2.423 2.6 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : 1.124 1.108 1.374 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, and other : 1.998 1.912 1.888 2.0 2.0 : Total 3/ : 43.856 54.637 59.804 58.0 55.5 ______________________________________________________________________________ Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-97 ______________________________________________________________________________ : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Aug.: Dec. ______________________________________________________________________________ : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 31.132 32.094 33.716 25.0 21.5 Wheat flour : 1.037 1.184 .470 1.0 .5 Rice : 2.438 3.767 2.831 2.3 2.3 Coarse grains 2/ : 39.845 65.670 58.656 58.0 56.0 Corn : 33.057 58.645 52.681 51.5 49.5 Feeds & fodders : 11.797 13.483 12.065 13.0 12.8 Oilseeds and products : 24.154 34.050 30.759 30.8 32.7 Soybeans : 16.364 23.584 22.372 22.3 23.7 Soybean meal : 4.859 6.094 5.445 5.2 5.7 Soybean oil : .694 1.216 .450 .8 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : 1.025 1.262 1.410 1.6 1.5 Poultry meat : 1.364 1.901 2.330 2.5 2.6 Animal fats : 1.324 1.725 1.376 1.8 1.6 Cotton & linters : 1.639 2.068 1.703 1.5 1.4 Horticultural products : 6.595 7.041 7.139 7.5 7.5 Other : 5.191 5.438 5.917 5.5 6.3 Total agriculture : 127.541 169.683 158.372 150.5 146.7 Major bulk products 4/ : 91.418 127.183 119.278 109.1 104.9 _______________________________________________________________________________ 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 5/ Revised, contains essential oil items not included in the August forecast. The full text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS will be available in about a week. For further information contact Joel Greene at (202) 219-0816. END_OF_FILE