OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY February 23, 1998 February 1998, AES-17s Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Printed copies of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS will be available several weeks following this summary release. Call 202-694-5050 or e-mail service@econ.ag.gov for availability. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1998 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST DROPPED TO $56 BILLION Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $56 billion, $2.5 billion below the December forecast and 2 percent under 1997. U.S. exports of corn are projected down primarily because of strong competition from large supplies in Argentina and China, as well as reduced demand in Asia. Since December, prospective U.S. corn exports were decreased by 7 million tons to 41.5 million, 11 percent below 1997. And as Asia's financial problems worsened, expected 1998 U.S. agricultural exports to Southeast Asia and South Korea were dropped. Weaker Asian demand and lower prices have reduced projected U.S. exports of meat, hides and skins, and horticultural products by more than $1 billion since December. Projections for fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, 6 percent above 1997, with horticultural products still expected to increase sharply. As a result, the anticipated export surplus was revised down to $18 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998 -- Year ending September 30 -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 Forecast 1998 Dec Feb ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 58.5 56.0 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 38.0 38.0 Trade balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 20.5 18.0 -- Million metric tons -- Export volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 161.4 149.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 11, 1998, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released February 23, 1998. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-1998 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1996 1997 1997 Forecast Dec Feb ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 4.854 3.851 16.466 16.7 15.3 Wheat & flour 1.118 1.096 4.263 4.5 4.4 Rice 0.304 0.276 0.962 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 2.339 1.399 6.921 6.9 5.6 Corn 2.093 1.159 6.107 6.1 4.9 Feeds and fodders 0.670 0.650 2.673 2.6 2.6 Oilseeds and products 3.907 4.683 11.437 11.0 11.2 Soybeans 2.797 3.226 6.950 6.7 6.7 Soybean meal 0.463 0.637 1.746 1.4 1.4 Soybean oil 0.160 0.231 0.516 0.7 0.7 Livestock products 1.890 2.095 7.706 8.2 7.5 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.927 1.080 3.977 4.3 4.0 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.397 0.354 1.693 1.8 1.5 Poultry & products 0.815 0.727 2.872 3.2 2.9 Dairy products 0.174 0.236 0.842 0.8 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.432 0.373 1.612 1.6 1.6 Cotton & linters 0.684 0.656 2.737 2.7 2.7 Seeds 0.282 0.253 0.924 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 2.781 2.820 10.598 11.2 10.8 Fruits & preparations 0.813 0.842 3.412 3.5 3.3 Vegetables & prep- arations 0.634 0.714 2.655 2.8 2.8 Tree nuts & prep- arations 0.522 0.458 1.283 1.4 1.2 Sugar,tropical,and other 0.535 0.536 2.064 2.2 2.2 Total 3/ 16.354 16.230 57.258 58.5 56.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1996-98 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- October-December Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1996 1997 1997 Forecast Dec Feb ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Wheat 5.989 6.729 24.531 28.5 28.0 Wheat flour 0.145 0.141 0.504 0.5 0.5 Rice 0.786 0.734 2.564 2.7 2.7 Coarse grains 1/ 16.290 11.597 53.027 55.1 47.9 Corn 14.571 9.596 46.579 48.5 41.5 Feeds & fodders 2.999 3.058 12.259 12.7 12.7 Oilseeds and products 12.706 15.564 33.942 37.1 36.7 Soybeans 10.067 12.063 24.027 26.7 25.9 Soybean meal 1.710 2.359 6.345 6.7 6.8 Soybean oil 0.289 0.381 0.924 1.1 1.1 Beef, pork & variety meats 0.320 0.398 1.356 1.5 1.4 Poultry meat 0.656 0.688 2.553 2.6 2.6 Animal fats 0.043 0.057 1.028 0.9 0.9 Cotton & linters 0.396 0.401 1.648 1.6 1.6 Horticultural products 1.829 1.956 7.539 7.7 7.7 Other 1.919 1.818 6.366 7.0 6.5 Total agriculture 44.078 43.141 147.319 157.9 149.2 Major bulk products 2/ 33.528 31.524 105.797 114.6 106.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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