OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS February 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. AES-9. Please note that this release contains only the text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #AES, $17/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1996 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST RISES TO $60 BILLION The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $2 billion to a record $60 billion as prospects for wheat, corn, and cotton exports have further improved. Tight global supplies and strong foreign demand continue to push wheat, corn, and soybean prices upward. The major bulk commodity export volume forecast has been increased 5.8 million tons. Total export volume is forecast at 161.6 million tons. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is raised $500 million to $29.5 billion. Higher expected imports of tobacco and oilseed products account for the increase. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $30.5 billion in fiscal 1996, $1.5 billion above the November forecast. This forecast surpasses the previous record of $26.6 billion set in fiscal 1981. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released February 21, 1996. Contents Fiscal 1996 Agricultural Export Forecast Rises to $60 Billion Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs U.S. Agricultural Imports Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1991-96 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1994-96 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-96 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1994-96 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1994-96 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1994-96 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1994-96 Coordinator (ERS): Joel Greene (202) 219-0816 Commercial Agriculture Division Economic Research Service (ERS) Coordinators (FAS): Michael Dwyer (202) 720-3124 Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922 Trade and Economic Analysis Division Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250 The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on information provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture Division of the Economic Research Service and in the Commodity Divisions of the Foreign Agricultural Service. All telephone numbers are area code 202. ERS: Thomas Capehart (Imports, 219-1262) Jaime Castaneda (Oilseeds, 219-0826) Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0848) Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833) David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839) John Love (Horticultural products, 219-1268) Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179) Mark Simone (Wheat, 219-0487) Carolyn Whitton (Coarse grains and rice, 219-0825). FAS: Peter Burr (Tobacco, Cotton, and Seeds, 720-9497) Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143) Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847) Robert Knapp (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-6877) Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252) Alan Riffkin (Grains and Feeds, 690-4198). Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS: Chris Bolling (Brazil, 219-0668); Nancy Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650); Hunter Colby (China, 219-0669); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 219-0002) John Dyck (Japan, 219-0698); Ruth Elleson (South Korea, 219-0681); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 219-0679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619); Daniel Plunkett (Mexico, 219-0670); Sharon Sheffield (Former Soviet Union, 219-0019); Jim Stout (Canada, 219-0678); Tina Valdecanas (Southeast Asia, 501-6133). The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May, August, and November. The next quarterly summary is scheduled for release on May 30, 1996. The report summary may be accessed electronically. For details, call (202) 219-0515. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs). Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-2791. To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity employer. Commodity Highlights The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is increased 2.7 million tons and $800 million from USDA's November forecast to 34.5 million tons valued at $6.7 billion. The global wheat market has further tightened in recent months, sending U.S. export volume and prices higher than previously anticipated. The major factors are China's recent large purchases and the continued strong pace of sales to other destinations. The European Union (EU-15) continues to restrict exports in response to high internal prices. The global stocks-to-use ratio for wheat has fallen to 17.5 percent (the smallest figure in USDA's database which begins in marketing year 1960/61), while by the end of May 1996, U.S. wheat stocks are expected to fall to their lowest level since marketing year 1973/74. The forecast for U.S. coarse grain exports in fiscal 1996 is raised 2.5 million tons and $800 million from November's forecast to 58.7 million tons valued at $8.7 billion. The export forecast for corn is raised 2 million tons and $600 million to 53 million tons valued at $7.8 billion. Despite higher prices, global demand for U.S. corn has strengthened further due to a downward revision in Argentina's production estimate and larger than expected purchases by a number of markets. Corn prices will remain strong with U.S. stocks expected to reach their lowest since marketing year 1974/75. U.S. sorghum export volume and value are also revised upward. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. rice exports remains unchanged from the November forecast at 3.2 million tons valued at $1 billion. Although U.S. prices for high-quality rice have risen recently due to fairly tight U.S. and Thai stocks, current prices should moderate because of an expected record second season crop in Thailand and better harvests elsewhere in Asia. The volume forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products is lowered 300,000 tons from November to 30.9 million tons, but higher expected prices have boosted export value by $100 million to $10 billion. Downward revisions in U.S. soybean meal and oil export volumes are accompanied by higher prices for meal and stronger than expected soybean exports. The soybean forecast is raised to 22 million tons valued at $6.3 billion. Despite the somewhat lower global import demand for soybeans, importers are building stocks in anticipation of lower South American export supplies. Downward revisions in U.S. soybean production and global stocks are also boosting prices. Higher than expected prices for soybean meal due to the lower U.S. soybean production estimate is curbing foreign demand for U.S. meal. U.S. soybean oil export volume is lowered to 800,000 tons. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is 1.7 million tons valued at $2.7 billion. The forecast is raised $200 million since November, in part because of a 100,000-ton increase in volume. Larger exports are expected to China and, to a lesser extent, Mexico. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco is up slightly from November at $1.4 billion. Exports are nearly 30 percent ahead of a year ago, and shipments to the EU-15 and East Asia, the traditional markets for U.S. unmanufactured tobacco, are stronger than earlier anticipated. The forecast for U.S. exports of planting seeds remains unchanged at $700 million. The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry products remains unchanged at a record $12.1 billion. The forecast for U.S. beef, pork, and red variety meat is lowered $100 million to $4.7 billion, and hides and skins remain unchanged at $1.9 billion. The forecast for U.S. poultry and product exports is unchanged at $2.4 billion, despite a 100,000-ton increase in poultry meat shipments to 2.2 million tons. The China/Hong Kong market for U.S. poultry meat is expected to remain strong, as is demand for poultry meat in Russia. The export forecast for dairy products remains unchanged at $900 million. The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. horticultural products is lowered $300 million from the November forecast. A downward revision in fresh and processed vegetable exports and a smaller decrease in fresh and processed fruit exports account for most of the change. These revisions are based on a greater than previously expected slowdown in fruit and vegetable exports to Mexico, and weaker than anticipated vegetable exports to Canada and Japan. The fiscal 1996 forecasts for U.S. vegetable and fruit exports are now $2.6 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively. The forecast for tree nut exports remains unchanged at $1.2 billion. The value of U.S. horticultural exports is still expected to rise nearly $900 million to a record $10 billion. Continued market liberalization, rising incomes, a growing demand for healthful foods, and on-going market promotion activities in Japan and other major Asian markets continue to drive U.S. exports higher. Economic Outlook World real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 2.7 percent in 1996, slightly lower than expected in November, but unchanged from 1995. Developed country growth is expected to slow to 2.1 percent because of slower growth in the United States, Canada, and the EU-15. Growth in Asia, excluding Japan, is projected at about 6.7 percent. Japan is expected to grow at 1.6 percent, compared with less than 1 percent in 1995. Growth prospects in Mexico are lower than earlier anticipated, but still positive at less than 1 percent. Regional Highlights U.S. agricultural exports are projected to rise to most major markets in fiscal 1996, with the strongest growth anticipated to countries in Asia. Smaller gains are expected to Canada, the EU-15, and Latin America. Central and Eastern Europe is the one region likely to show no gain for U.S. exports. U.S. exports to Japan are revised upwards to $11.7 billion, 11 percent higher than in fiscal 1995. Shipments of wheat, corn, and soybeans are not expected to increase, but substantially higher prices will boost value. Export gains are expected for red meats, but vegetables are likely to slow. Exports to China, South Korea, and Taiwan are revised upwards because of higher expected wheat, corn, and soybean prices. South Korea will surpass Mexico as the fourth largest market for U.S. farm commodities in fiscal 1996 with purchases of $4.6 billion. South Korea will be a primary market for U.S. red meats and cattle hides. Exports to China are forecast to rise nearly 20 percent to $2.9 billion. China is likely to increase its purchases of wheat, but not of corn and cotton. U.S. exports to the EU-15 are forecast at $9 billion, 7 percent higher than 1995. Higher soybean prices and horticulture gains have boosted export value. Exports to Canada are forecast at $6.1 billion, up 5 percent from fiscal 1995. Exports to the former Soviet Union are raised to $1.5 billion and exports to Russia raised to $1.3 billion. Prospects for bulk exports remain low but shipments of poultry meats and pork products remain strong. So far in fiscal 1996, export growth to Russia has been among the strongest of any large market. U.S. exports to markets in Latin America are expected to rise about 5 percent from 1995 to $8.5 billion. Exports to Mexico are expected at $3.8 billion, slightly higher than in fiscal 1995. Weaker economic prospects in 1996 continue to hamper sales of high-value products to Mexico, but bulk sales remain relatively strong. Shipments of corn and soybeans are sustained through the GSM-102 program, and as of February 1, 1996, corn and soybean exports were ahead of last year. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs U.S. Food Aid Programs The Public Law 480 (P.L. 480) Food for Peace program uses appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to countries at different levels of economic development. As of February 1, $194 million has been allocated for the 1996 Title I program, and $46 million for the Food for Progress program funded by Title I appropriations. This funds total commodity shipments of 872,600 metric tons. Of this $240 million in allocations, $210 million in Title I and Food for Progress agreements have been signed with 19 countries. Allocations totaling $30 million have been announced for Angola, Croatia, Moldava, and Poland. Because USDA's authority for entering into P.L. 480 agreements expired December 31, 1995, these agreements cannot be signed until Congress provides new legislative authority. The limited availability of wheat for programming under the P.L. 480 program led the President to authorize the release of up to 1.5 million metric tons of wheat from the Food Security Wheat Reserve. This wheat will be used to provide, on a sale or donation basis, emergency food assistance to developing countries in fiscal 1996. The Export Enhancement Program and Dairy Export Incentive Programs On February 2, 1996, USDA announced a 3-month continuation of the interim Export Enhancement Program (EEP) and Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) allocations. EEP bonuses will be available to 71 countries for 6.2 million metric tons of wheat; 49 countries for 399,525 metric tons of wheat flour; 24 countries for 650,000 metric tons of barley and malting barley; 33 countries for 112,675 metric tons of barley malt; 27 countries for 120,100 metric tons of rice; 22 countries for 170,000 metric tons of vegetable oils; 27 countries for 11,946 metric tons of frozen poultry; and 7 countries for 6.2 million dozen eggs. DEIP bonuses will be available to 97 countries for 48,000 metric tons of nonfat dry milk; 84 countries for 4,000 tons of whole milk powder; 99 countries for 15,345 tons of butterfat; and 37 countries for 1,000 tons of cheese. As of February 1, 1996, frozen poultry was the sole EEP product sold in fiscal 1996. Frozen poultry sales totaled 11,125 tons; bonuses were $5.2 million. DEIP sales for fiscal 1996, as of February 1, totaled 10,126 tons of whole powdered milk, non-fat dry milk, and a variety of cheeses, with bonuses of $3.1 million. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs As of February 2, fiscal 1996 export credit guarantee program (GSM-102 and GSM-103) allocations of $3.153 billion are similar to those of fiscal 1995 for the same period. However, fiscal 1996 sales of $1.556 billion as of February 2 are more than 40 percent higher than during the same period in fiscal 1995. Importers in Mexico are the chief purchasers under credit guarantee programs. Mexican buyers have used $657.7 million as of February 2, almost all of the $700 million GSM-102 allocated for fiscal 1996. U.S. Agricultural Imports Fiscal 1996 agricultural imports are forecast at $29.5 billion, $500 million higher than the November forecast. The upward revision is due to increases in expected imports of oilseeds and products and tobacco. Total oilseed and products are forecast at $2 billion, up $300 million, due to expected increased volume and higher prices. Strong consumer demand, new products, and higher prices caused by low stock-to-use ratios in the soybean complex boost the volume from 3.1 million tons to 3.3 million tons. Shipments of rapeseed meal for feed and canola oil rose during October-November 1995 and were accompanied by higher prices. Coconut oil volume increased also. Tobacco imports are forecast at $700 million, $200 million above November. Leaf tobacco imports are raised by 100,000 tons to 300,000 tons. Rising leaf demand due to increasing U.S. cigarette output and the replacement of the foreign content restriction on U.S. manufactured cigarettes by a tariff rate quota are behind the increased forecast. Leaf tobacco imported and then exported in manufactured form is not subject to the tariff rate quota. The grain import forecast has been lowered by 1.8 million tons to 4.1 million tons due to reduced expectations for wheat, barley, oat, and rice import quantities. Value remains at $800 million due to higher prices. The forecast for fresh and frozen vegetable imports has been raised by 200,000 tons to 2.6 million tons, and value remains unchanged at $3 billion. Imports from Mexico have increased due to the devalued peso and a drop in domestic Mexican demand. Cucumbers, eggplants, peppers, snap beans, squash, and tomatoes showed gains over year-ago levels. Because of higher fresh and frozen vegetable forecast, the horticultural import forecast is increased to 8.9 million tons. Coffee import volume is forecast at 1.1 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the November forecast. Continued lower prices have increased import volume and roasters are expected to increase stocks of green coffee beans when South American production comes onto the market in late mid-year. Coffee import value is unchanged at $3 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996 -- Year beginning October 1 -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Forecast Item : 1991 : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : : : : : : Nov. : Feb. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 54.1 58.0 60.0 : Imports : 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.5 29.0 29.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Trade : balance : 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 24.6 29.0 30.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Million tons -- Export : volume : 129.4 143.6 146.4 127.4 169.2 156.0 161.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 9, 1996, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 2.708 3.603 17.637 19.1 21.0 Wheat & flour : .808 1.179 5.201 5.9 6.7 Rice : .225 .182 1.050 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : .973 1.510 7.411 7.9 8.7 Corn : .838 1.395 6.619 7.2 7.8 Feeds and fodders : .417 .443 2.511 2.8 3.0 : Oilseeds and products : 1.692 1.727 9.119 9.9 10.0 Soybeans : 1.040 1.122 5.274 6.1 6.3 Soybean meal : .178 .176 1.079 1.3 1.3 Soybean oil : .130 .079 .809 .5 .5 : Livestock products : 1.325 1.465 7.808 8.8 8.8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .656 .786 4.044 4.8 4.7 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .249 .269 1.719 1.9 1.9 Poultry & products : .379 .466 2.210 2.4 2.4 Dairy products : .125 .117 .812 .9 .9 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .230 .294 1.329 1.3 1.4 Cotton & linters : .362 .478 3.496 2.5 2.7 Seeds : .115 .116 .680 .7 .7 Horticultural products : 1.719 1.737 9.110 10.3 10.0 Fruits & preparations : .559 .588 3.263 3.6 3.5 Vegetables & preparations : .438 .393 2.538 2.9 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .306 .342 1.108 1.2 1.2 Sugar, tropical, and other : .359 .354 1.940 2.1 2.1 : Total 3/ : 9.014 10.357 54.141 58.0 60.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 5.688 6.065 32.094 30.5 33.5 Wheat flour : .151 .064 1.184 1.3 1.0 Rice : .854 .519 3.767 3.2 3.2 Coarse grains 2/ : 9.806 11.273 65.670 56.2 58.7 Corn : 8.455 10.397 58.645 51.0 53.0 Feeds & fodders : 2.043 2.189 13.483 13.3 13.8 Oilseeds and products : 6.645 5.974 34.050 31.2 30.9 Soybeans : 4.854 4.434 23.584 21.8 22.0 Soybean meal : .963 .862 6.094 5.5 5.3 Soybean oil : .208 .125 1.216 .9 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .206 .240 1.262 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat : .309 .389 1.901 2.1 2.2 Animal fats : .288 .292 1.725 2.1 2.1 Cotton & linters : .244 .268 2.068 1.6 1.7 Horticultural products : 1.321 1.242 7.001 8.0 7.5 Other : .937 .991 4.999 5.0 5.5 Total agriculture : 28.492 29.506 169.204 156.0 161.6 Major bulk products 4/ : 21.446 22.559 127.183 113.3 119.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1994-96 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Region : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Billion dollars-- Western Europe : 1.714 1.816 8.781 9.2 9.4 European Union 2/ : 1.638 1.748 8.416 8.7 9.0 Other Western Europe : .076 .068 .365 .5 .4 : Central and Eastern Europe : .090 .057 .306 .4 .3 : Former Soviet Union : .196 .289 1.158 1.3 1.5 Russia : .138 .212 .911 1.1 1.3 : Asia : 3.459 4.617 23.980 26.2 27.7 Japan : 1.664 2.021 10.450 11.3 11.7 China : .125 .360 2.412 2.7 2.9 Other East Asia : 1.146 1.381 7.560 8.6 9.0 Taiwan : .423 .469 2.552 2.7 2.8 South Korea : .473 .591 3.575 4.4 4.6 Hong Kong : .247 .321 1.425 1.5 1.6 Southeast Asia : .368 .669 2.582 2.7 3.0 Philippines : .108 .147 .675 .7 .8 South Asia : .155 .186 .976 .9 1.1 Pakistan : .067 .118 .341 .3 .5 : Middle East : .418 .471 2.426 2.6 2.7 Israel : .082 .097 .462 .5 .5 Saudi Arabia : .087 .097 .486 .5 .5 Africa : .524 .553 2.988 3.1 3.2 North Africa : .376 .369 2.111 2.2 2.2 Egypt : .238 .267 1.378 1.3 1.4 Algeria : .086 .042 .461 .5 .5 Sub-Saharan Africa : .148 .184 .877 .9 1.0 : Latin America : 1.513 1.468 8.103 8.4 8.5 Mexico : .743 .607 3.699 3.8 3.8 Other Latin America : .769 .861 4.404 4.6 4.7 Brazil : .210 .111 .638 .6 .6 Venezuela : .060 .062 .496 .6 .5 : Canada : .993 1.005 5.836 6.1 6.1 : Oceania : .107 .081 .562 .7 .6 : Total : 9.014 10.357 54.141 58.0 60.0 : Developed countries : 4.561 5.020 26.092 27.8 28.3 Developing countries : 4.042 4.631 24.173 25.8 27.0 Other countries : .411 .706 3.876 4.4 4.7 : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada. 2/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union. Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1994-96 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Billion dollars-- Animals and products : .961 1.001 5.926 5.4 5.4 Live animals : .264 .280 1.655 1.4 1.4 Red meats : .388 .362 2.332 2.1 2.1 Dairy products : .100 .111 1.046 1.0 1.0 : : Horticultural products : 1.526 1.722 9.906 10.1 10.1 Fruits, incl. Juices : .465 .482 3.366 3.5 3.5 Bananas and plantains : .184 .190 1.130 1.1 1.1 Vegetables and preps. : .390 .455 3.030 3.0 3.0 Nuts and preps. : .100 .093 .496 .5 .5 Wine and malt beverages : .436 .535 2.207 2.3 2.3 Nursery and cut flowers : .134 .157 .807 .8 .8 : : Grains and feeds : .424 .480 2.291 2.4 2.4 Grains : .122 .124 .654 .8 .8 Feeds and products : .303 .355 1.637 1.6 1.6 : Sugar and related products : .163 .192 1.221 1.3 1.3 Oilseeds and products : .266 .342 1.760 1.7 2.0 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .100 .127 .572 .5 .7 Coffee, incl. products : .566 .508 3.363 3.0 3.0 Cocoa and products : .186 .186 1.089 1.1 1.1 Rubber and allied gums : .187 .233 1.589 1.6 1.6 Other products : .283 .325 1.813 1.9 1.9 : Total : 4.662 5.115 29.530 29.0 29.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1994-96 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov.: Feb. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Million metric tons-- : Red meats : .172 .160 1.054 1.0 1.0 Cheese and casein : .046 .047 .244 .2 .2 Horticultural products : 1.181 1.301 8.441 8.7 8.9 Fruits, fresh or frozen : .171 .187 1.889 2.1 2.1 Bananas and plantains : .677 .658 3.878 4.0 4.0 Vegetables, fresh/frozen : .292 .419 2.484 2.4 2.6 Nuts and preps. : .041 .036 .189 .2 .2 Wine and malt beverages 1/ : 2.559 3.021 15.523 16.0 16.0 Fruit juices 1/ : 5.386 3.424 24.192 23.0 23.0 Grains and feeds : 1.480 1.251 7.415 8.5 6.7 Grains : 1.016 .768 5.750 5.9 4.1 Feed and products : .464 .483 2.524 2.6 2.6 Sugar, cane or beet 2/ : .146 .202 1.541 2.0 2.0 Oilseeds and products : .545 .586 3.107 3.1 3.3 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .044 .044 .216 .2 3 Coffee, incl. products : .142 .176 .935 1.0 1.1 Cocoa and products : .106 .104 .614 .7 .7 Rubber and allied gums : .162 .171 1.043 1.0 1.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Million hectoliters. Not included in horticultural totals. 2/ Imports for consumption, product weight.Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1994-96 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : October-November : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Region : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --Billion dollars-- : Western Europe : 1.107 1.250 5.885 5.9 5.9 European Union 1/ : 1.078 1.215 5.713 5.7 5.7 Other Western Europe .029 .035 .172 .2 .2 : : Central and Eastern Europe : .033 .052 .202 .2 .2 : Former Soviet Union : .009 .009 .053 2/ 2/ : Asia : .727 .859 5.068 4.9 4.9 Japan : .054 .054 .305 .3 .3 China : .071 .072 .482 .5 .5 Other East Asia : .050 .049 .305 .3 .3 Southeast Asia : .467 .598 3.491 3.3 3.3 South Asia : .085 .085 .485 .5 .5 : Middle East : .034 .088 .318 .3 .3 : Africa : .102 .094 .698 .7 .7 North Africa : .009 .010 .069 .1 .1 Sub-Saharan Africa : .093 .084 .629 .6 .6 : Latin America : 1.463 1.450 10.197 9.7 9.9 Mexico : .389 .453 3.716 3.7 3.7 Other Latin America : 1.074 .997 6.481 6.0 6.2 Brazil : .300 .175 1.323 1.2 1.4 Chile : .408 .437 .537 .5 .5 : Canada : .923 1.065 5.359 5.6 5.9 : Oceania : .265 .248 1.750 1.8 1.7 : Total : 4.662 5.115 29.530 29.0 29.5 : Developed countries : 2.349 2.617 13.340 13.6 13.8 Developing countries : 2.200 2.365 15.542 14.7 15.0 Other countries : .113 .133 .647 .7 .7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union. 2/ Less than $50 million. END-END-END