OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS June 10, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ==================================================================== OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. AES-14. Please note that this release does not contain the graphics that appear in the publication. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report (4 issues a year, $18)-- or single copies ($9) -- may be purchased by calling 1-800-999-6779 in the U.S. and Canada. From other countries, please call 703-999-6779. For information about ERS products and services, please see the ERS catalog on our home page, or call our Information Center at 202-219-0515. ==================================================================== FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REMAINS AT $56.5 BILLION; IMPORTS UP $1.5 BILLION The forecast for fiscal 1997 U.S. agricultural exports is unchanged at $56.5 billion. Since February, decreased prospects for coarse grain and livestock product exports are offset by gains in wheat, cotton, soybean meal, and horticultural products. Higher projected wheat and cotton shipments result in a $200-million increase for each. Continued strong global demand raises the value of U.S. soybean meal exports $100 million. Horticultural exports are raised $100 million on increased tree nut, wine, and essential oil exports. The forecast for total export volume is reduced nearly 2 million tons to 143.5 million tons. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are forecast at $35.5 billion, $1.5 billion higher than in February. Higher import demand for beef, grains, and vegetables account for most of the increase. Higher prices for oilseeds are expected to boost import value. The value of coffee imports is increased slightly to reflect continued strong prices. The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is reduced to $21 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997 -- Year ending September 30 -- : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast Item : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Fiscal 1997 : : : : : : Feb. : May : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 42.5 42.7 43.9 54.6 59.8 56.5 56.5 : Imports : 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.6 32.4 34.0 35.5 : Trade : balance : 18.2 18.2 17.5 25.0 27.4 22.5 21.0 : -- Million metric tons -- : Export : volume : 143.6 146.4 127.5 169.7 158.4 145.4 143.5 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1997, WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board and released May 29, 1997. Contents Fiscal 1997 Agricultural Export Forecast Remains at $56.5 Billion; Imports Up $1.5 Billion Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Import Highlights Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1992-97 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-97 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-97 Coordinator (ERS): Joel Greene (202) 219-0649 Commercial Agriculture Division Economic Research Service (ERS) Coordinators (FAS): Michael Dwyer (202) 720-3124 Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922 Office of Deputy Administrator Commodity and Marketing Programs Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on information provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture Division of the Economic Research Service and in the Commodity Divisions of the Foreign Agricultural Service. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephone numbers are area code 202. ERS: Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 501-8511); Ed Allen (Wheat and Coarse Grains, 219-0831); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 219-0712); Nathan Childs (Rice, 501-8513); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 501-8525); Ronald Gustafson (Beef, 219-0848); Mildred Haley (Pork, 219-0833); David Harvey (Poultry, 219-0839); John Love (Horticultural Products, 219-1268); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 219-1179); Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 501-8445). FAS: Peter Burr (Tobacco and Seeds, 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847); Nancy Morrison (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-8252); Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899); Anita Regmi (Cotton, 720-9510). Regional information can be provided by the following analysts in the Commercial Agriculture Division, ERS: Chris Bolling (Brazil, 219-0668); Nancy Cochrane (Central and Eastern Europe, 219-0650); Hunter Colby (China, 219-0669); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 219-0002); John Dyck (Japan and South Korea, 219-0698); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 219-0665); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 219-0679); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 219-0619); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle East, 219-0636); Jay Mitchell (Newly Independent States, 501-8330); Daniel Plunkett (Mexico, 219-0670); Jim Stout (Canada, 219-0678); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 501-5575). The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May, August, and November/December. The next issue is scheduled for release on August 28, 1997. Commodity Highlights The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. wheat and flour exports is raised 1 million tons and $200 million from USDA's February forecast to 22.1 million tons valued at $3.8 billion. U.S. wheat export volume is raised 1 million tons because of the expectation of larger global imports. The forecast for wheat flour remains unchanged. The forecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments in fiscal 1997 is lowered 2.2 million tons and $400 million from the February forecast to 52.8 million tons valued at $6.9 billion. This revision is due to a 2-million-ton reduction in corn exports and a 200,000-ton reduction in sorghum exports. Corn exports are now forecast at 46.5 million tons valued at $6.1 billion. The expected average price of corn remains largely unchanged. The forecast for U.S. corn shipments is reduced primarily because of increased export competition from China. Since February, China's 1996/97 corn export forecast is raised from 1 million tons to 2.5 million tons. Also contributing to the decline is Taiwan's falling demand for imported feedstuffs due to hog inventory reductions following the outbreak of foot and mouth disease. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. rice exports is raised 100,000 tons to 2.5 million tons, but value remains unchanged at $1 billion. Foreign demand for U.S. rice remains strong and tight domestic supplies have kept prices higher than a year ago. The improved export outlook is due to unexpected strong sales to Latin American countries over the past few months. The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products is lowered 300,000 tons to 33.3 million tons, however total value is raised $100 million to $10.8 billion. The U.S. oilseed forecast is revised because of an improved outlook for soybean meal shipments and higher average prices for soybeans and soybean meal. The soybean meal forecast is increased 100,000 tons and $100 million to 6.1 million tons valued at $1.6 billion. Continued strong foreign demand (especially from China) and reduced exports from Brazil are boosting the volume and value of U.S. soybean meal exports. Since February, the outlook for U.S. soybean exports is reduced 300,000 tons to 24.1 million tons due to a sharp upward revision in the export forecast for Brazilian soybeans. Brazil removed an export tax which has resulted in increased soybean exports this year. Higher U.S. soybean prices moderate the decline in export value, as soybeans are revised downward $100 million to $7 billion. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is raised 100,000 tons and $200 million from the February forecast to 1.6 million tons valued at $2.8 billion. The improved outlook is mainly due to increased foreign demand and reduced export competition. In particular, U.S. sales prospects to China and Mexico have improved. Argentina's production and export estimates were revised downward since February. The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products is reduced $200 million from the February forecast but remains a record $11.9 billion. While the beef and pork export forecast remains unchanged at a record 1.5 million tons, export value is lowered $100 million to $4.6 billion. The average export price for beef is lowered due to the continued slower pace of sales to Japan, a market which buys higher priced U.S. beef. The pace of Japan's beef imports from all countries remains slow as a result of consumer concern over food safety issues unrelated to U.S. products. Rising U.S. beef exports to Mexico partially offset slower sales to Japan. The outlook for U.S. pork exports has improved with the expectation of increased sales to Japan beginning in the fourth quarter, the result of a foot and mouth disease outbreak in Taiwan. The export forecast for poultry and products is reduced $100 million but remains a record $2.9 billion. Strong gains in lower priced poultry meat exports reduces the average price of exports, and the pace of broiler meat sales to Japan and Hong Kong has slowed. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : : --Billion dollars-- : Grains and feeds 1/ : 11.030 8.913 21.553 16.2 16.0 Wheat & flour : 3.446 1.960 7.032 3.6 3.8 Rice : .541 .578 1.004 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 4.909 4.190 9.338 7.3 6.9 Corn : 4.361 3.732 8.369 6.4 6.1 Feeds and fodders : 1.365 1.362 2.627 2.7 2.6 : Oilseeds and products : 5.837 7.414 9.670 10.7 10.8 Soybeans : 3.965 4.961 6.312 7.1 7.0 Soybean meal : .668 1.113 1.305 1.5 1.6 Soybean oil : .199 .341 .272 .5 .5 : Livestock products : 4.078 3.727 8.067 8.5 8.3 Beef, pork & variety meats : 2.176 1.842 4.343 4.7 4.6 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .787 .860 1.677 1.6 1.7 Poultry & products : 1.356 1.488 2.730 3.0 2.9 Dairy products : .360 .360 .719 .7 .7 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .855 .893 1.393 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters : 2.313 1.547 3.028 2.6 2.8 Seeds : .460 .596 .727 .8 .9 Horticultural products : 4.901 5.308 10.019 10.5 10.6 Fruits & preparations : 1.586 1.579 3.311 3.5 3.3 Vegetables & preparations : 1.190 1.302 2.423 2.6 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .738 .776 1.374 1.3 1.4 Sugar, tropical, and other : .880 .994 1.898 2.1 2.1 : Total 3/ : 32.071 31.240 59.804 56.5 56.5 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : : --Million metric tons-- : Wheat : 16.814 10.703 33.716 20.5 21.5 Wheat flour : .218 .256 .470 .6 .6 Rice : 1.524 1.501 2.831 2.4 2.5 Coarse grains 2/ : 33.663 30.746 58.656 55.0 52.8 Corn : 30.069 27.284 52.681 48.5 46.5 Feeds & fodders : 6.661 6.225 12.065 12.4 12.2 Oilseeds and products : 19.342 23.661 30.759 33.6 33.3 Soybeans : 14.563 17.641 22.372 24.4 24.1 Soybean meal : 2.952 4.109 5.445 6.0 6.1 Soybean oil : .329 .621 .450 .8 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .685 .628 1.410 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat : 1.168 1.245 2.330 2.7 2.5 Animal fats : .789 .487 1.376 1.4 1.0 Cotton & linters : 1.286 .906 1.703 1.5 1.6 Horticultural products : 3.589 3.681 7.139 7.5 7.5 Other : 2.927 3.293 5.917 6.3 6.5 Total agriculture : 88.666 83.332 158.372 145.4 143.5 Major bulk products 4/ : 67.850 61.497 119.278 103.8 102.5 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. The forecast for exports of U.S. horticultural products in fiscal 1997 is raised $100 million to a record $10.6 billion. This outlook represents a 6-percent improvement over the previous year largely due to steady export growth to key Asian Pacific Rim countries and Canada, and the expectation of continued sales recovery to Mexico. The upward revision from the February forecast is mainly due to rising exports of tree nuts, essential oils, wine, and miscellaneous food preparations which more than offset a downward revision in fresh and processed fruit exports. The forecast for fruits and preparations is reduced $200 million to $3.3 billion largely due to the slower pace of fresh grapefruit, table grape, and strawberry shipments to date. This is the result of increased competition from grapefruit supplied by Australia and Israel, and reduced U.S. table grape and strawberry supplies available for export. The U.S. export forecast for fresh and processed vegetables remains unchanged at a record $2.6 billion, and the forecast for tree nuts is raised $100 million to a record $1.4 billion. Economic Outlook The outlook for 1997 world gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.9 percent in 1997 is slightly better than earlier anticipated and about the same as in 1996. Upward revisions for income growth in the United States and Canada to 2.8 percent and 3 percent, respectively, boost the developed country income outlook to 2.3 percent. Growth in Japan has been revised upwards since February, but still remains sluggish at 1.8 percent. Income growth in developing countries is expected at 5.6 percent, led by upward revisions in Mexico (5.7 percent), Brazil (4 percent), Thailand (7.2 percent), and Indonesia (7 percent). Although the U.S. dollar has strengthened during the first half of 1997, and is expected to remain above 1996, the effect on agricultural exports is moderated by continued strong foreign income growth and lower agricultural export prices. The Japanese and European markets are likely to be affected the most by the dollar's rise as the dollar has appreciated about 10 percent vis-a-vis the Japanese yen and German mark during the first quarter of 1997. However, in the emerging markets of Asia, the dollar has depreciated slightly on an agricultural trade weighted basis. Regional Highlights Prospects for U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and South Korea have improved since February, while exports to Japan, the United States' largest market, are expected lower. The forecast for exports to Canada is revised upward $300 million to a record $6.5 billion. Exports to Canada during the first half of fiscal 1997 were $3.2 billion, 11 percent higher than the previous year. Exports in almost every commodity group have risen in 1997, and grain products, vegetable oils, and fresh and processed vegetables are likely to gain the most. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-97 1/ : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Region : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : : --Billion dollars-- : Western Europe : 5.848 5.991 9.533 9.3 9.4 European Union : 5.646 5.746 9.171 9.0 9.0 Other Western Europe : .203 .245 .362 .3 .4 Central and Eastern Europe : .215 .225 .408 .4 .4 Newly Independent States 2/ : .914 .872 1.667 1.9 1.7 Russia : .647 .687 1.252 1.5 1.5 Asia : 13.939 13.359 25.970 24.3 24.1 Japan : 6.049 5.642 11.839 11.4 11.0 China : 1.207 1.223 1.829 2.0 2.0 Other East Asia : 4.169 4.238 8.191 7.5 7.6 Taiwan : 1.441 1.448 2.928 2.6 2.5 South Korea : 1.963 1.983 3.732 3.3 3.5 Hong Kong : .765 .808 1.530 1.6 1.6 Southeast Asia : 2.049 1.862 3.381 3.0 3.0 Philippines : .455 .455 .905 .7 .8 South Asia : .465 .393 .564 .4 .5 Pakistan : .290 .239 .394 .3 .3 Middle East : 1.468 1.246 2.593 2.1 2.1 Israel : .331 .295 .626 .5 .6 Saudi Arabia : .331 .284 .580 .5 .5 Africa : 1.749 1.013 3.192 2.1 1.8 North Africa : 1.253 .609 2.259 1.4 1.1 Egypt : .824 .376 1.533 1.0 .6 Algeria : .195 .124 .334 .3 .2 Sub-Saharan Africa : .496 .404 .933 .7 .7 Latin America : 4.830 5.090 9.973 9.8 10.0 Mexico : 2.336 2.529 5.021 5.5 5.4 Other Latin America : 2.494 2.561 4.952 4.3 4.6 Brazil : .275 .271 .590 .5 .5 Venezuela : .218 .285 .448 .4 .6 Canada : 2.881 3.197 5.992 6.2 6.5 Oceania : .226 .248 .476 .4 .5 : Total : 32.071 16.354 59.804 56.5 56.5 Developed countries : 15.336 15.373 28.466 27.8 27.5 Developing countries : 14.399 13.547 27.434 24.4 24.9 Other countries : 2.337 2.320 3.904 4.3 4.1 1/ Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada. 2/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU). Exports to South Korea are revised upward $200 million to $3.5 billion as year-to-date exports have been higher than earlier anticipated. Higher exports of hides and skins and oilseeds have maintained U.S. exports near fiscal 1996 levels. During the last quarter of fiscal 1997, South Korea will convert its quota on oranges and orange juice to a tariff-rate quota and remove its quotas on frozen pork and frozen poultry which should further support U.S. agricultural shipments this year. The export forecast for Japan is lowered $400 million to $11 billion for fiscal 1997, largely due to reduced prospects for beef sales. Year-to-date agricultural exports totaled $5.6 billion, 7 percent lower than in 1996. Sales of beef remain slow; volume is down 18 percent and lower export prices further reduce beef export value. Pork exports are also below a year ago, but prospects for U.S. pork shipments should significantly improve after July 1 as Japan is not expected to renew the annual safeguard surcharge on pork imports. The United States is likely to gain a large share of the Japanese fresh pork market that Taiwan will lose because of a foot and mouth disease outbreak. Fruit, fruit juice, and fresh vegetable exports are also likely to fall below a year ago; however, U.S. tomatoes should begin to enter Japan in fiscal 1997. Exports to the Newly Independent States (NIS) are lowered $200 million to $1.7 billion, but the forecast for Russia is unchanged at $1.5 billion. Year-to-date poultry meat exports of $491 million continue at a record pace and account for more than 70 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to Russia. U.S. exports to the other NIS republics have dropped 31 percent in fiscal 1997, especially to Estonia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Export Subsidy Programs Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) sales are booming in fiscal 1997. As of May 28, 4,339 tons of anhydrous milk fat; 178 tons of butter; 2,636 tons of cheese; 1,745 tons of whole milk powder, and 55,514 tons of nonfat dry milk were sold to countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Central America, the Newly Independent States, and the Middle East in fiscal 1997. DEIP bonuses totaled $52.2 million for the same period, or more than twice the total fiscal 1996 bonuses. There continues to be no sales under the Export Enhancement Program in fiscal 1997. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs Sales under the fiscal 1997 Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) are progressing slowly in fiscal 1996. Country allocations in fiscal 1997 were $3.3 billion as of May 16, 1997, although applications received from exporters were $1.9 billion, 58 percent of the allocations. In comparison, at this time in fiscal 1996, GSM-102 allocations were $3.5 billion and applications were $2.3 billion, 66 percent of allocations. Importers in Mexico continue to be the chief purchasers of U.S. agricultural products under GSM-102, accounting for more than 45 percent of the applications received from exporters. The fiscal 1997 GSM-102 allocation for Mexico of $800 million was raised to $1.075 billion on May 14 after applications to exporters reached the previous level. Wheat importers in Pakistan have used almost all GSM-102 allocations, and exporter applications for wheat sales to Pakistan totaled $235.7 million. Market Access Program On March 6, USDA announced $90 million in allocations under the Market Access Program (MAP) to 64 U.S. commodity organizations to promote high-value and processed products such as meats, fruits and vegetables, seafood, and dairy products. The MAP uses Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) funds to help U.S. commodity organizations finance cost-share promotional activities for U.S. agricultural products. Activities financed include consumer promotions, market research, technical assistance, and trade servicing. Generic promotion activities predominate with about 72 percent of program expenditures, while branded product promotions account for 28 percent. Eighty-four percent of the funds for brand promotion will go to small size companies and cooperatives in 1997. Fiscal 1997 is the last year large companies will be eligible to receive MAP assistance. U.S. Food Aid Programs The U.S. Food for Peace Program, or Public Law 480 (P.L. 480), uses appropriated funds to provide U.S. agricultural assistance to countries at different levels of economic development. The P.L. 480 program is comprised of three titles. Title I is administered by USDA, while Titles II and III are administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). The fiscal 1997 appropriation for Title I and Food for Progress (FFP) programs funded with Title I funds totaled $240.7 million, marking a 24-percent cut from 1996. Appropriations for Title II increased slightly to $837 million, while those for Title III were cut nearly in half to $29.5 million. As of May 19, Title I agreements were signed with seven countries, with allocations totaling nearly $80 million. These funds will provide about 360,000 tons of commodity assistance, most of which is wheat. Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Tajikistan are expected to receive commodity donations totaling $30 million under the FFP program. Title I allocations totaling $125 million have been announced, but not signed, with 14 countries. When all agreements are signed, Title I and Title II funded FFP programs are expected to provide about 970,000 tons of commodity assistance to 21 countries. Approximately a third of Title II appropriations are for Sub-Saharan Africa; more than 60 percent of which are emergency funds. Rwanda is expected to receive the largest share of the region's Title II emergency funds, while Ethiopia will receive the largest share of the region's Title II development funds. Eritrea, Haiti, Ethiopia, and Mozambique will receive commodity assistance from Title III allocations. Import Highlights U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at $35.5 billion, up $1.5 billion from the February projection. In general, a stronger U.S. dollar is putting downward pressure on import prices, while import volume is growing faster than anticipated. Year-to-date imports were higher than expected for vegetables, fruit juices, and oilseeds and products. Horticultural products are expected to reach $12.9 billion, up $400 million from February. While import prices for fruit juices are lower than a year ago, the year-to-date import volume is 51 percent higher. The import forecast for fruit, including fruit juice, is raised $100 million to $4.3 billion. Projected imports of vegetables and preparations is raised $300 million to $3.9 billion. Year-to-date grain import volume was up 50 percent because of stronger imports of oats and wheat. The grain import forecast is raised from 4.1 million tons to 5.4 million tons. Imports of oilseed and products is raised $200 million, reflecting higher prices. Cumulative value totals for oilseeds and products were 10 percent higher than a year ago. Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : : --Billion dollars-- Animals and products : 2.914 3.160 5.907 6.2 6.4 Live animals : .794 .752 1.551 1.6 1.6 Red meats : 1.090 1.204 2.251 2.3 2.4 Dairy products : .571 .663 1.174 1.3 1.3 : Horticultural products : 5.668 6.496 11.643 12.5 12.9 Fruits, incl. juices : 1.779 2.129 3.810 4.2 4.3 Bananas and plantains : .558 .580 1.177 1.3 1.3 Vegetables and preps. : 1.771 2.014 3.359 3.6 3.9 Nuts and preps. : .250 .279 .530 .6 .6 Wine and malt beverages : 1.217 1.401 2.658 3.1 3.1 Nursery and cut flowers : .492 .503 .946 1.1 1.1 : Grains and feeds : 1.215 1.485 2.574 2.7 3.1 Grains : .331 .520 .674 .7 1.0 Feed and grain products : .884 .965 1.900 2.0 2.1 : Sugar and related products : .680 .846 1.789 1.9 1.8 Oilseeds and products : 1.016 1.119 2.083 1.9 2.1 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .345 .638 .770 .8 1.1 Coffee, incl. products : 1.547 1.579 2.860 3.1 3.2 Cocoa, incl. products : .723 .726 1.365 1.4 1.4 Rubber and allied gums : .743 .710 1.441 1.5 1.5 Other products : .929 .958 2.008 2.0 2.0 : Total : 15.779 17.718 32.440 34.0 35.5 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : : --Million metric tons-- : Red meats : .490 .529 1.024 1.0 1.1 Cheese and casein : .117 .133 .243 .2 .3 Horticultural products : 5.707 5.937 10.826 11.7 12.0 Fruits and preps. : 3.251 3.418 6.695 7.0 7.0 Bananas and plantains : 1.933 1.909 4.007 4.1 3.9 Vegetables and preps. : 2.357 2.411 .903 4.5 4.8 Nuts and preps. : .099 .108 .194 .2 .2 Wine and malt beverages 1/ : 7.806 8.669 17.795 20.3 20.0 Fruit juices 1/ : 10.430 15.736 24.370 26.3 29.0 Grains and feeds : 3.196 4.375 6.349 7.0 8.3 Grains : 1.906 2.976 3.563 4.1 5.4 Feed and grain products : 1.290 1.399 2.786 2.9 2.9 Sugar, cane or beet 2/ : .880 1.290 2.733 2.7 2.7 Oilseeds and products : 1.746 1.817 3.345 3.6 3.6 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .115 .183 .259 .3 .4 Coffee, incl. products : .598 .623 1.109 1.1 1.2 Cocoa, incl. products : .441 .408 .817 .9 .8 Rubber and allied gums : .520 .560 .999 1.0 1.1 1/ Million hectoliters. Not included in horticultural totals. 2/ Imports for consumption, product weight. Includes imports of quota-exempt sugar. Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Region : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : : --Billion dollars-- : Western Europe : 3.180 3.606 6.449 6.7 7.2 European Union 1/ : 3.088 3.524 6.273 6.5 7.1 Other Western Europe : .092 .082 .175 .2 .2 Central and Eastern Europe : .136 .171 .223 .2 .3 Newly Independent States 2/ : .023 .044 .180 .1 .1 Asia : 2.616 2.843 5.372 5.7 5.7 Japan : .151 .145 .284 .3 .3 China : .251 .330 .545 .6 .7 Other East Asia : .153 .178 .334 .4 .4 Southeast Asia : 1.791 1.899 3.589 3.8 3.8 South Asia : .270 .291 .620 .6 .6 Middle East : .258 .445 .420 .4 .9 Africa : .432 .435 .850 .9 .9 North Africa : .033 .035 .074 .1 .1 Sub-Saharan Africa : .400 .365 .776 .8 .8 Latin America : 5.298 5.824 10.839 11.7 11.7 Mexico : 1.945 2.126 3.716 3.9 4.3 Other Latin America : 3.353 3.698 7.123 7.8 7.4 Brazil : .550 .681 1.248 1.4 1.4 Chile : .375 .480 .696 .7 1.0 Canada : 3.094 3.584 6.463 6.6 7.2 Oceania : .741 .766 1.635 1.7 1.5 : Total : 15.779 17.718 32.440 34.0 35.5 : Developed countries : 7.215 8.187 14.830 15.3 16.4 Developing countries : 8.169 9.075 16.652 17.8 18.2 Other countries : .395 .456 .948 .9 .9 1/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union. 2/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU). The import volume for red meat is expected to reach 1.1 million tons, raising the import value to $2.4 billion. Although year-to-date live animal imports are below a year ago, they are expected to pick-up in the latter half of the year due to lower U.S. cattle inventory. Projected live animal imports are unchanged from the February projection at $1.6 billion. Total imports of animals and products is forecast at $6.4 billion. Cumulative tobacco import volume is 60 percent higher than the previous year because of lower than expected tobacco production and strong demand for cigarette manufacturing. Because of higher than expected volume and prices, tobacco imports are expected to reach $1.1 billion, an increase from February's $800 million forecast. Coffee imports were revised upward to $3.2 billion, reflecting continued strong prices through fiscal 1997. END_OF_FILE