OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY May 29, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ============================================================================= This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (AES-14) will be available within 1-2 weeks following release of this summary. ============================================================================== FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST REMAINS AT $56.5 BILLION; IMPORTS UP $1.5 BILLION The forecast for fiscal 1997 U.S. agricultural exports is unchanged at $56.5 billion. Since February, decreased prospects for coarse grain and livestock product exports are offset by gains in wheat, cotton, soybean meal, and horticultural products. Higher projected wheat and cotton shipments result in a $200-million increase for each. Continued strong global demand raises the value of U.S. soybean meal exports $100 million. Horticultural exports are raised $100 million on increased tree nut, wine, and essential oil exports. The forecast for total export volume is reduced nearly 2 million tons to 143.5 million tons. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are forecast at $35.5 billion, $1.5 billion higher than in February. Higher import demand for beef, grains, and vegetables account for most of the increase. Higher prices for oilseeds are expected to boost import value. The value of coffee imports is increased slightly to reflect continued strong prices. The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus forecast is reduced to $21 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997 -- Year ending September 30 -- : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast Item : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : Fiscal 1997 : : : : : : Feb. : May : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 42.5 42.7 43.9 54.6 59.8 56.5 56.5 : Imports : 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.6 32.4 34.0 35.5 : Trade : balance : 18.2 18.2 17.5 25.0 27.4 22.5 21.0 : : -- Million metric tons -- Export : volume : 143.6 146.4 127.5 169.7 158.4 145.4 143.5 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 12, 1997, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 11.030 8.913 21.553 16.2 16.0 Wheat & flour : 3.446 1.960 7.032 3.6 3.8 Rice : .541 .578 1.004 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 4.909 4.190 9.338 7.3 6.9 Corn : 4.361 3.732 8.369 6.4 6.1 Feeds and fodders : 1.365 1.362 2.627 2.7 2.6 : Oilseeds and products : 5.837 7.414 9.670 10.7 10.8 Soybeans : 3.965 4.961 6.312 7.1 7.0 Soybean meal : .668 1.113 1.305 1.5 1.6 Soybean oil : .199 .341 .272 .5 .5 : Livestock products : 4.078 3.727 8.067 8.5 8.3 Beef, pork & variety meats : 2.176 1.842 4.343 4.7 4.6 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .787 .860 1.677 1.6 1.7 Poultry & products : 1.356 1.488 2.730 3.0 2.9 Dairy products : .360 .360 .719 .7 .7 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .855 .893 1.393 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters : 2.313 1.547 3.028 2.6 2.8 Seeds : .460 .596 .727 .8 .9 Horticultural products : 4.901 5.308 10.019 10.5 10.6 Fruits & preparations : 1.586 1.579 3.311 3.5 3.3 Vegetables & preparations : 1.190 1.302 2.423 2.6 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .738 .776 1.374 1.3 1.4 Sugar, tropical, and other : .880 .994 1.898 2.1 2.1 : Total 3/ : 32.071 31.240 59.804 56.5 56.5 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-97 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1997 Commodity : 1995/96 : 1996/97 : 1996 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 16.814 10.703 33.716 20.5 21.5 Wheat flour : .218 .256 .470 .6 .6 Rice : 1.524 1.501 2.831 2.4 2.5 Coarse grains 2/ : 33.663 30.746 58.656 55.0 52.8 Corn : 30.069 27.284 52.681 48.5 46.5 Feeds & fodders : 6.661 6.225 12.065 12.4 12.2 Oilseeds and products : 19.342 23.661 30.759 33.6 33.3 Soybeans : 14.563 17.641 22.372 24.4 24.1 Soybean meal : 2.952 4.109 5.445 6.0 6.1 Soybean oil : .329 .621 .450 .8 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .685 .628 1.410 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat : 1.168 1.245 2.330 2.7 2.5 Animal fats : .789 .487 1.376 1.4 1.0 Cotton & linters : 1.286 .906 1.703 1.5 1.6 Horticultural products : 3.589 3.681 7.139 7.5 7.5 Other : 2.927 3.293 5.917 6.3 6.5 Total agriculture : 88.666 83.332 158.372 145.4 143.5 Major bulk products 4/ : 67.850 61.497 119.278 103.8 102.5 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Printed copies of the U.S. Outlook for Agricultural Exports report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information contact Joel Greene. E-mail: jlgreene@econ.ag.gov Phone: (202)219-0816. END_OF_FILE