OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY November 30, 1995 (Corrected December 4, 1995) Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT A RECORD $58 BILLION IN FISCAL 1996 The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is revised upward $3.5 billion to a record $58 billion. The export volume forecast is lowered slightly, but remains strong at 156 million tons. Tight global supplies are expected to substantially raise prices for wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans, boosting export value by $2.1 billion compared with the August forecast. Livestock product exports are forecast $1.2 billion higher than in August, largely because of an anticipated $900-million increase in red meat shipments. The cotton export forecast is reduced $400 million, reflecting prospects for increased foreign competition. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is $29 billion, unchanged from the August forecast. A $300-million increase in grain and sugar product imports is offset by lower coffee imports. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at a record $29 billion in fiscal 1996. This forecast surpasses the previous record of $26.6 billion, set in fiscal 1981. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996 -- Year beginning October 1 -- : : : : : : Forecast Item : 1991 : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : : : : : : Aug.: Nov. : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 54.1 54.5 58.0 : Imports : 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.5 29.0 29.0 : Trade : balance : 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 24.6 25.5 29.0 : : -- Million tons -- Export : volume : 129.4 143.6 146.4 127.4 169.2 156.5 156.0 : This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 9, 1995, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1993-96 : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Aug. : Nov. : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 14.332 13.285 17.637 17.5 19.1 Wheat & flour : 4.954 4.228 5.201 5.4 5.9 Rice : .768 .891 1.050 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 5.094 4.569 7.411 7.1 7.9 Corn : 4.251 3.817 6.619 6.4 7.2 Feeds and fodders : 2.196 2.150 2.511 2.6 2.8 : Oilseeds and products : 7.371 6.976 9.119 8.9 9.9 Soybeans : 4.606 4.161 5.274 5.3 6.1 Soybean meal : 1.146 1.013 1.079 1.0 1.3 Soybean oil : .327 .433 .809 .6 .5 : Livestock products : 5.886 6.343 7.808 7.6 8.8 Beef, pork & variety meats : 3.052 3.206 4.044 3.9 4.8 Hides & skins, incl. furs : 1.271 1.380 1.719 1.8 1.9 Poultry & products : 1.315 1.718 2.210 2.4 2.4 Dairy products : .891 .810 .812 .9 .9 Tobacco, unmanufactured : 1.443 1.260 1.329 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters : 1.538 2.306 3.496 2.9 2.5 Seeds : .664 .618 .680 .7 .7 Horticultural products : 7.299 8.098 9.110 10.3 10.3 Fruits & preparations : 2.746 3.047 3.263 3.7 3.6 Vegetables & preparations : 2.102 2.169 2.538 2.9 2.9 Tree nuts & preparations : .920 1.124 1.108 1.2 1.2 Sugar, tropical, & other : 1.716 2.060 1.940 2.0 2.1 : Total 3/ : 42.454 43.474 54.141 54.5 58.0 : Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1993-96 : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Aug. : Nov. : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 36.081 31.132 32.094 30.5 30.5 Wheat flour : 1.067 1.037 1.184 1.0 1.3 Rice : 2.713 2.438 3.767 3.4 3.2 Coarse grains 2/ : 50.100 39.845 65.670 56.5 56.2 Corn : 41.766 33.057 58.645 51.0 51.0 Feeds & fodders : 11.885 11.797 13.483 13.3 13.3 Oilseeds and products : 29.408 24.154 34.050 31.2 31.2 Soybeans : 20.400 16.364 23.584 21.8 21.8 Soybean meal : 5.653 4.859 6.094 5.3 5.5 Soybean oil : .644 .694 1.216 1.0 .9 Beef, pork & variety meats : .903 1.025 1.262 1.2 1.5 Poultry meat : .974 1.364 1.901 2.0 2.1 Animal fats : 1.362 1.324 1.725 1.7 2.1 Cotton & linters : 1.163 1.639 2.068 1.7 1.6 Horticultural products : 6.189 6.560 7.001 8.0 8.0 Other : 4.588 4.497 4.999 6.0 5.0 Total agriculture : 146.433 126.812 169.204 156.5 156.0 Major bulk products 4/ : 110.457 91.418 127.183 113.9 113.3 : 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. END-END-END