OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS December 15, 1997 December 1997, AES-16 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #AES-16, $24/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NOTICE: This release replaces the December 8 release, which did not contain the report's full text and tables. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1998 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST UNCHANGED AT $58.5 BILLION Fiscal 1998 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $58.5 billion, up $1.2 billion from the $57.3 billion shipped in fiscal year 1997. In the aggregate, the export forecast remains unchanged from August as gains in soybeans offset reductions in meats, wheat, and corn. This forecast includes an anticipated slowdown in U.S. exports to Southeast Asian countries and South Korea. Exports to these countries, currently forecast at $6.2 billion, reflect an estimated $500 million downward adjustment due to the financial crisis. Fiscal 1998 imports remain at $38 billion, $2.2 billion above fiscal 1997. The anticipated export surplus of $20.5 billion is unchanged from August projections, but $1.0 billion less than the fiscal 1997 surplus. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1998 -- Year ending September 30 -- Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Forecast Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 Fiscal 1998 Aug. Dec. -- Billion dollars -- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 58.5 58.5 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 38.0 38.0 Trade balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 20.5 20.5 -- Million metric tons -- Export volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 161.4 157.9 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the November 10, 1997, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Contents Fiscal 1998 Agricultural Exports Commodity Highlights Economic Outlook Regional Highlights U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Import Highlights Tables Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years 1993-98 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1996-98 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1996-98 Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1996-97 Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1996-98 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1996-98 Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1996-97 Coordinator (ERS): Carolyn Whitton (202) 694-5287 Leader Trade Data Analysis Trade Analysis Branch Market & Trade Economics Economic Research Service(ERS) Coordinators (FAS): Ernest Carter (202) 720-2922 Office of Deputy Administrator Commodity and Marketing Programs Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. 20250 The forecasts in the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports are based on information provided by the Market & Trade Economics Division of the ERS and the Commodity Divisions of FAS. Editorial support is furnished by Martha R. Evans, Information Services Division, ERS. All telephones are area code 202. ERS: Karen Ackerman (Export Programs, 694-5264); Ed Allen (Wheat and Coarse Grains, 694-5288); Mark Ash (Oilseeds, 694-5289); Nathan Childs (Rice, 694-5292); Mark Gehlhar (Imports, 694-5273); Shayle Shagam (Beef, 694-5186); Mildred Haley (Pork, 694-5176); David Harvey (Poultry, 694-5177); Gary Lucier (Horticultural Products, 694-5253); Stephen MacDonald (Cotton, 694-5305); Stacey Rosen (Food Aid, 694-5164). FAS: Peter Burr (Cotton, Tobacco & Seeds 720-9497); Alan Holz (Oilseeds, 720-0143); Linda Kotschwar (Grains and Feeds, 690-4134); Dee Linse (Export Programs, 720-9847); Joel Greene (Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry, 720-6553); Debra Pumphrey (Horticultural and Tropical Products, 720-8899). Regional information ERS: Chris Bolling (Brazil, 694-5212); Todd Morath (East Europe, 694-5161); Hunter Colby (China, 694-5215); Frederick Crook (Hong Kong, 694-5217); John Dyck (Japan & South Korea, 694-5221); Anwarul Hoque (South Asia, 694-5222); Sophia Wu Huang (Taiwan, 694-5225); Elizabeth Jones (European Union, 694-5149); Michael Kurtzig (North Africa and the Middle East, 694-5152); Sharon Sheffield (New Independent States, 694-5167); John Link (Mexico, 694-5228); Suchada Langley (Canada, 694-5227); Gary Vocke (Southeast Asia, 694-5241). The Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports is published in February, May, August, and December. The next issue will be released February 23, 1998. The summary may be accessed electronically; call (202) 694-5050. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice & TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call 1-800-245-6340 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity employer. Commodity Highlights The forecast for fiscal year 1998 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is lowered 1.5 million tons from the previous August forecast to 29 million tons. With higher prices for wheat partially offsetting reduced wheat export volume, the value of wheat and flour exports was reduced only $100 million to $4.5 billion. Lower domestic ending stocks have resulted in higher wheat prices since August. U.S. wheat export volume is reduced due to greater than expected competition from Australia and Canada. The timely arrival of rains in Australia has resulted in an upward revision of that country's production and export estimates. The fiscal 1998 forecast for coarse grain exports is reduced 3.1 million tons and $600 million from August's forecast to 55.1 million tons valued at $6.9 billion. Although there were slight declines in corn and sorghum prices, most of the revision is due to reductions in corn export volume. The forecast for corn exports is reduced 3.5 million tons and $700 million to 48.5 million tons valued at $6.1 billion. U.S. corn export volume is reduced due to lower demand in Asia and increased competition from China's large corn exports (up 3 million tons since August) and feed wheat from Europe. Partially offsetting reduced corn shipments, barley export volume is raised 450,000 tons to 1.35 million tons. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. oilseed exports is raised 900,000 tons and $1.1 billion from August's forecast to 37.1 million tons valued at $11 billion. This improved outlook is due to stronger prices and increased export volumes for soybeans and products. The outlook for minor oilseed crops has improved as well. The soybean export forecast is increased 700,000 tons and $600 million to 26.7 million tons valued at $6.7 billion, while the shipment estimates for soybean meal and oil were each raised 100,000 tons. These upward revisions are due to rising foreign demand, especially from the European Union (EU) and China. The fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. exports of livestock, poultry, and dairy products is lowered $300 million from the August forecast to $12.2 billion. Beef, pork, and variety meats are now estimated at 1.5 million tons valued at $4.3 billion, down 100,000 tons and $500 million from August's forecast. This revision is due to lower U.S. prices for pork and a reduction in the forecast for U.S. pork shipments to Japan. Following the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Taiwan, exports to Japan have not expanded as much as anticipated. Compared with fiscal year 1997, U.S. beef exports are expected to rise 3 percent in fiscal 1998, and higher prices should boost export value 9 percent to $2.6 billion. This represents a slowdown in the growth rate of U.S. beef sales to Asia, and especially to Japan. Partly offsetting downward revisions for beef and pork, U.S. poultry and product exports are increased $200 million to $3.2 billion largely due to expected expanded sales of processed products to all destinations and table eggs to Hong Kong. Minor adjustments between product groups leave the overall fiscal 1998 forecast for U.S. horticultural exports unchanged from the August estimate of $11.2 billion. This represents a $600-million (6 percent) increase from fiscal 1997 sales and a record high. Fruits and preparations, vegetables and preparations, and tree nuts, three major product groups that account for about two-thirds of the sales expansion in 1998, are forecast at $3.5 billion, $2.8 billion, and $1.4 billion, respectively. Other products, most notably essential oils, wine, and miscellaneous food preparations, account for the remaining growth. The expected rise in horticultural exports (both volume and value) assumes that sales to Mexico continue rising, sales to Canada continue at the current pace, steady sales growth across Latin America continues, and funding for USDA market promotion activities remains unchanged. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1995-1998 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug Dec --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 17.637 21.553 16.466 17.3 16.7 Wheat & flour 5.201 7.032 4.263 4.6 4.5 Rice 1.050 1.004 0.962 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 7.411 9.338 6.921 7.5 6.9 Corn 6.619 8.369 6.107 6.8 6.1 Feeds and fodders 2.511 2.627 2.673 2.5 2.6 Oilseeds and products 9.119 9.670 11.437 9.9 11.0 Soybeans 5.274 6.312 6.950 6.1 6.7 Soybean meal 1.079 1.305 1.746 1.4 1.4 Soybean oil 0.809 0.272 0.516 0.6 0.7 Livestock products 7.831 8.067 7.726 8.7 8.2 Beef, pork & variety meats 4.038 4.343 3.977 4.8 4.3 Hides & skins, incl. furs 1.738 1.677 1.693 1.8 1.8 Poultry & products 2.340 2.898 3.094 3.0 3.2 Dairy products 0.789 0.719 0.842 0.8 0.8 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.329 1.393 1.612 1.6 1.6 Cotton & linters 3.496 3.028 2.737 2.8 2.7 Seeds 0.680 0.727 0.924 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 9.649 10.019 10.598 11.2 11.2 Fruits & preparations 3.255 3.311 3.412 3.5 3.5 Vegetables & preparations 2.559 2.423 2.655 2.7 2.8 Tree nuts & preparations 1.108 1.374 1.283 1.4 1.4 Sugar, tropical, and other 1.759 1.721 1.825 2.3 2.2 Total 3/ 54.629 59.795 57.261 58.5 58.5 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats,and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1995-98 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug Dec --Million metric tons-- Wheat 32.094 33.716 24.531 30.0 28.5 Wheat flour 1.184 0.470 0.504 0.5 0.5 Rice 3.767 2.831 2.564 2.7 2.7 Coarse grains 1/ 65.670 58.656 53.027 58.2 55.1 Corn 58.645 52.681 46.579 52.0 48.5 Feeds & fodders 13.483 12.065 12.259 12.4 12.7 Oilseeds and products 34.050 30.759 33.942 36.2 37.1 Soybeans 23.584 22.372 24.027 26.0 26.7 Soybean meal 6.094 5.445 6.345 6.6 6.7 Soybean oil 1.216 0.450 0.924 1.0 1.1 Beef, pork, & variety meats 1.256 1.410 1.356 1.6 1.5 Poultry meat 1.901 2.330 2.522 2.6 2.6 Animal fats 1.725 1.376 1.028 0.9 0.9 Cotton & linters 2.068 1.703 1.648 1.6 1.6 Horticultural products 7.041 7.139 7.539 7.7 7.7 Other 5.442 5.916 0.000 7.0 7.0 Total agriculture 169.681 158.372 147.319 161.4 157.9 Major bulk products 2/ 127.183 119.278 105.797 118.5 114.6 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Economic Outlook Growth of world gross domestic product(GDP) is now projected at 2.8 percent in 1998, down from 3.1 percent in 1997. Developed country GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent in 1997, while developing countries slide to 4.5 percent GDP growth from 5.2 percent. The U.S. GDP is forecast to drop to 2.5 percent growth from 3.8 percent in 1997. In major U.S. export markets, the European Union's GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.7 percent from 2.4 percent in 1997. GDP growth in Japan also is expected to rise, but at only a sluggish 1.6 percent in 1998. Growth of GDP in Canada and Mexico likely will slow to 2.8 percent and 5 percent, respectively, from 3.6 percent and 7 percent, respectively in 1997. Improved GDP growth also is expected in the transition economies of Eastern Europe and the New Independent States. The Middle East is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5 percent GDP growth. But these gains are not likely to offset the slowdowns projected for Asia. Since July, financial crises in Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea have led to devaluation of a number of Asian currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. While currency devaluations may eventually promote exports from these countries, slower income growth and higher import prices will weaken these countries' demand for U.S. exports. Agricultural products, particularly bulk agricultural products, may be less affected by this weakening of demand for U.S. exports than industrial and luxury goods; but some effect is likely. The Asian crisis is pulling down projections for GDP growth in the region. Slower 1998 GDP growth is projected for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea, although all are likely to continue expanding. Thailand's growth is forecast very slow at only 1 percent in 1998, and South Korea's growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent, from 4.9 percent in 1997. The others, while slowing, still are all forecast above 4.5 percent growth. In the rest of Asia, China's growth also is projected to slow, although for different reasons; but it is likely to remain high at 7.6 percent in 1998. GDP growth in Latin America will slump to 3.5 percent, from 4.5 percent this year. GDP growth in Africa also is projected down to only 3.1 percent. Regional Highlights The current crisis has been centered in Southeast Asia and, more recently, in South Korea. Although Asia accounted for 46 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports in 1997 and as much as three-fourths of U.S. exports of some commodities, South Korea and Southeast Asia represent a far smaller portion of U.S. agricultural exports. Southeast Asia accounted for only 5 percent of U.S. agricultural exports in 1997, while South Korea accounted for 6 percent. Exports to these countries, currently forecast at $6.2 billion, relfect an estimated modest $500 million downward adjustment due to the financial crisis. The crisis is expected to adversely impact high-value product (HVP) exports such as soybean products and meats, as well as some bulk products such as corn and soybeans. However, USDA is projecting these countries' 1998 imports of food grains up because of drought-induced production shortfalls and pressure to keep consumer prices low. In addition, imports of some products tied to export industries such as cotton and hides and skins, may also increase. Other major markets, such as Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the EU, are expected to remain strong for 1998 U.S. agricultural exports, but substantial gains are projected only for Mexico. Exports to Mexico are projected up 14 percent to $5.8 billion. In Mexico, animal products, fruits, and feeds are likely to show the strongest gains. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1995-98 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Region 1995 1996 1997 Forecast --Billion dollars-- Western Europe 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.5 European Union 8.3 8.9 8.8 8.8 Other Western Europe 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 Central and Eastern Europe 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 New Independent States 1/ 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 Russia 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 Asia (excluding Middle East) 24.3 26.0 23.8 23.6 Japan 10.7 11.9 10.7 10.9 China 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 Hong Kong 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Taiwan 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.4 South Korea 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.3 Southeast Asia 2.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 Philippines 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 South Asia 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 Pakistan 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Middle East 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Israel 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 Saudi Arabia 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Africa 2.8 3.0 2.2 2.5 North Africa 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.7 Egypt 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 Algeria 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Latin America 8.2 9.9 10.0 11.1 Mexico 3.7 5.0 5.1 5.8 Other Latin America 4.5 4.9 4.9 5.3 Brazil 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 Venezuela 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 Canada 5.9 6.0 6.6 6.6 Oceania 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 Total 2/ 54.6 59.8 57.3 58.5 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Totals include transshipments through Canada, but transshipments are not distributed by country as previously. Exports to Canada and Japan are forecast up only 1-2 percent to $6.7 billion and $10.9 billion, respectively. Fruits and vegetables are expected to lead the gains in Canada as competitors' exports fall and apple shipment restrictions are eased. Japan's imports of U.S. pork still should grow strongly with Taiwan remaining out of the market, while the value of beef exports to Japan will be boosted by higher beef prices. But the weak yen is likely to be a key factor in keeping gains to Japan small. U.S. exports to the EU are forecast about unchanged at $8.8 billion in 1998. The second consecutive large, but low-quality, wheat harvest has increased the demand for high-quality wheat. Large grain crops in Spain likely will limit feed grain imports. Although pork exports appear likely to increase, beef and poultry meat imports continue to be regulated. Prospects for gains in exports to South Asia, primarily Pakistan, are being pushed up by large GSM wheat sales already committed to that country. Exports to Pakistan are projected up nearly 30 percent from 1997, bringing expected exports to South Asia as a whole up 10 percent. Exports to China are expected to drop about 10 percent in 1998, reflecting the success of its policy to increase domestically produced grain. However, the resulting lower oilseed production and continued growth in meal and oil use is forecast to boost U.S. soybean and product exports. Improved economic growth in Eastern Europe is likely to raise exports to that region. But despite greater economic growth expected in 1998, exports to the New Independent States, primarily Russia, are projected to decline in 1998, reflecting increased enforcement of border measures and a more stable currency that will make domestic products more competitive. Expected flat economic growth in the Middle East will hold anticipated exports to this region unchanged as well in 1998. But a sharp gain in exports to North Africa is projected as countries other than Egypt raise imports to compensate for reduced 1997/98 production and sales to Egypt recover following a decline in 1997. Additionally, expansion of the poultry and livestock sectors in these two regions is expected to promote sales of feed ingredients. U.S. Agricultural Export Programs Export Subsidy Programs Congress authorized only $150 million for the Export Enhancement Program (EEP) in fiscal 1998, $350 million less than the level authorized by the FAIR Act, but authorized full funding for the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). For the first year since its inception in 1985, there were no sales under the EEP in fiscal 1997. As of December 1, there have been no EEP sales in fiscal 1998. DEIP bonuses in fiscal 1997 of $121 million facilitated sales of 140,324 metric tons of anhydrous milk fat, butter, butter oil, cheddar cheese, mozzarella cheese, nonfat dry milk, processed American cheese, and whole milk powder. The DEIP is off to a strong start in fiscal 1998 as of December 1, as bonuses valued at $33.5 million assisted 38,484 metric tons of dairy product sales, chiefly to African and Middle Eastern countries. CCC Export Credit Guarantee Programs For fiscal 1998, Congress appropriated funding of $5.5 billion for export credit guarantee programs -- GSM-102, GSM-103, the Supplier Credit Guarantee program, and the Facilities Guarantee Program. For fiscal 1998, GSM-102, the largest credit guarantee program, is off to a strong start as allocations totaled $2.4 billion as of November 21 compared with $1.9 billion for the same period last year. GSM-102's commodity coverage has expanded to many high-value and consumer-ready products, although early approvals of sale applications(as of November 21)are primarily cotton, wheat, feed grains, and oilseeds to major buyers such as Mexico, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey. Total fiscal 1997 export applications approved under GSM-102, $2.8 billion, were down 10 percent from fiscal 1996 approvals. Supplier Credit Guarantee Program allocations cover a wide variety of consumer-ready and high-value products from pet food to fish, meats, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. Allocations totaling $153 million have been extended to buyers in Andean countries, Argentina, Baltic countries, Brazil, Central American countries, Central European countries, Israel, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Poland, Southeast Asian countries, and Turkey. The Supplier Credit Guarantee Program differs from GSM-102 guarantees in that the guarantees are extended for only up to 180 days versus up to 3 years for GSM-102. Foreign banks and foreign bank letters of credit are not involved in the transaction, but the buyer alone bears the responsibility of repayment. U.S. Food Aid Programs The fiscal 1998 appropriation for Title I and Food for Progress (FFP) programs funded with Title I funds totaled $244.5 million, a slight increase of $3.8 million from the 1997 level. Appropriations for Title II remained at $837 million, and those for Title III totaled $30 million, a $500,000-increase from 1997. For fiscal 1998, Title I programs are planned with 16 countries, with allocations totaling about $165 million. These funds are estimated to provide about 755,000 tons of commodity assistance. Under the Title I-funded FFP program, programs are planned with 5 countries, with allocations totaling about $69 million, providing an estimated 224,000 tons of commodity assistance. Title I and FFP programs are estimated to provide roughly 1 million tons of commodity assistance to 21 countries. Import Highlights U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal year 1998 are projected at $38 billion, up 6 percent from fiscal 1997 and unchanged from the August forecast. Lower anticipated prices for coffee and fruit and vegetables have slowed the growth in imports from the previous year. Animals and products are expected to grow by 7 percent in 1998 to reach $6.9 billion. Red meat imports, mainly from Australia and New Zealand, are expected to reach $2.8 billion, an increase of 8 percent from 1997. Argentina will most likely fill its 20,000-ton beef quota for 1998. Horticultural imports for fiscal 1998 are expected to reach $14.4 billion, up 13 percent over fiscal 1997. Imports of vegetables and preparations were revised downward from the August projection by $200 million as import prices are expected lower than earlier anticipated. Total vegetable imports for 1998 are projected at $4.1 billion, up from $3.6 billion in 1997. The forecast for wine and malt beverages was revised upward by $200 million to $3.5 billion in 1998. Sugar imports for fiscal 1998 are projected to fall from 2.9 million tons in 1997 to 2.5 million tons in 1998. Table 5--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by commodity, 1995-1998 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug Dec --Billion dollars-- Animals and products 5.962 5.955 6.426 6.9 6.9 Live animals 1.655 1.551 1.525 1.6 1.6 Red meats 2.332 2.251 2.583 2.8 2.8 Dairy products 1.072 1.209 1.273 1.4 1.4 Horticultural products 10.346 11.692 12.673 14.4 14.4 Fruits, incl. juices 3.354 3.810 4.138 4.7 4.7 Bananas and plantains 1.130 1.177 1.218 1.3 1.3 Vegetable and preps. 3.114 3.421 3.604 4.3 4.1 Nuts and preps. 0.496 0.530 0.547 0.6 0.6 Wine and malt bev. 2.207 2.658 3.068 3.3 3.5 Nursery products 0.823 0.946 0.974 1.2 1.2 Grains and feeds 2.244 2.517 2.941 3.0 3.0 Grains 0.654 0.674 0.979 0.9 0.9 Feed and grain prod. 1.590 1.843 1.962 2.1 2.1 Sugar and related prod. 1.299 1.808 1.869 1.7 1.7 Oilseeds and prod. 1.745 2.059 2.248 2.3 2.1 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.572 0.770 1.179 1.4 1.4 Coffee, incl. prod 3.363 2.860 3.698 3.4 3.4 Cocoa, incl. prod. 1.063 1.333 1.414 1.4 1.5 Rubber and allied gums 1.588 1.441 1.315 1.4 1.5 Other products 1.670 2.130 2.025 2.1 2.1 Total 29.852 32.565 35.788 38.0 38.0 Table 6--U.S. agricultural imports: Volume by commodity, 1995-98 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Commodity 1995 1996 1997 Forecast Aug Dec --Million metric tons-- Red meats 1.054 1.024 1.140 1.2 1.2 Cheese and casein 0.244 0.243 0.254 0.3 0.3 Horticultural products 9.749 10.826 11.242 12.8 12.8 Fruits and preps 6.350 6.695 6.918 7.6 7.6 Bananas and plantains 3.878 4.007 3.950 4.1 4.1 Vegetables and preps. 3.150 3.903 4.122 5.0 5.0 Nuts and preps. 0.189 0.194 0.203 0.2 0.2 Wine and malt beverages 1/ 15.523 17.795 20.426 20.6 21.0 Fruit juices 1/ 24.192 24.370 29.829 31.8 31.8 Grains and feeds 7.415 6.349 8.434 8.7 8.7 Grains 4.891 3.563 5.643 5.6 5.6 Feed and grain products 2.524 2.786 2.791 2.9 2.9 Sugar, cane or beet 2/ 1.541 2.733 2.938 NA 2.5 Oilseeds and products 3.107 3.345 3.780 3.5 3.4 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.216 0.259 0.337 0.4 0.4 Coffee, incl. products 0.935 1.109 1.212 1.3 1.3 Cocoa, incl. products 0.614 0.817 0.767 0.8 0.8 Rubber and allied gums 1.043 0.999 1.075 1.1 1.1 1/ Million hectoliters not included in horticultural totals. 2/ NA= Not available; 1998 sugar forecast not available in August because tariff-rate quota had not been announced. Table 7--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by region, 1995-98 Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Region 1995 1996 1997 Forecast --Billion dollars-- Western Europe 5.994 6.517 7.120 7.6 European Union 5.819 6.339 6.937 7.4 Other Western Europe 0.172 0.178 0.184 0.2 Central and Eastern Europe 0.202 0.223 0.252 0.3 New Independent States 1/ 0.053 0.180 0.070 0.1 Asia 5.447 5.815 6.408 6.8 Japan 0.320 0.292 0.290 0.3 China 0.517 0.546 0.645 0.7 Other East Asia 0.305 0.334 0.350 0.4 Southeast Asia 3.495 3.590 3.795 4.0 South Asia 0.517 0.631 0.687 0.7 Middle East 0.320 0.422 0.640 0.7 Africa 0.708 0.851 0.871 0.9 North Africa 0.076 0.075 0.071 0.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.629 0.777 0.800 0.8 Latin America 10.269 10.859 11.951 12.7 Mexico 3.716 3.729 3.940 4.2 Other Latin America 6.481 7.129 8.010 8.5 Brazil 1.323 1.125 1.517 1.6 Chile 0.537 0.697 0.755 0.8 Canada 5.428 6.485 7.292 7.7 Oceania 1.751 1.635 1.824 1.9 Total 29.852 32.565 35.788 38.0 1/ Newly Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union (FSU), including the Baltic Republics. 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