OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY February 22, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS (also known as Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports) is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. EXPORT FORECAST REVISED UPWARD TO RECORD $48.5 BILLION IN 1995 Fiscal 1995 U.S. agricultural exports are revised upward $3.5 billion from the November 1994 forecast to a record $48.5 billion. Export prospects for U.S. wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton are greatly improved, up $2.8 billion from the November forecast. Corn is up $1.1 billion as projected volume is 20 percent higher and prices are stronger. Cotton volume is 38 percent higher, and stronger cotton prices raise export value $900 million. Total agricultural export volume is projected at 156.6 million tons, up 12.5 million from the November forecast and more than 29 million above last year. Further gains are forecast for high-value products (HVP) in fiscal 1995. Higher expected exports of poultry, livestock, and horticultural products provide an additional $500 million to the forecast. HVP exports will reach nearly $28 billion in fiscal 1995, up 5 percent from the previous year. U.S. agricultural imports are revised upward $500 million to $28.5 billion because of increased live animal, beef, vegetable, sugar, and rubber imports. The projected 1995 agricultural trade surplus is expected to be $20 billion, the highest since 1982. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1990-1995 -- Year beginning October 1 -- : : : : : : Forecast Item : FY 1990 : FY 1991 : FY 1992 : FY 1993 : FY 1994 : FY 1995 : : : : : : Nov. : Feb : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 40.1 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 45.0 48.5 : Imports : 22.5 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 28.0 28.5 : Trade : balance : 17.6 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 17.0 20.0 : : -- Million tons -- Export : volume : 148.7 129.4 143.6 146.4 127.4 144.1 156.6 : This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the February 10, 1995, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1993-95 : October-December : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995 Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : 1994 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 3.795 4.207 13.413 13.6 15.3 Wheat & flour : 1.212 1.252 4.228 4.6 5.0 Rice : .209 .328 .891 .8 .8 Coarse grains 2/ : 1.413 1.576 4.569 4.9 6.0 Corn : 1.255 1.374 3.817 4.2 5.3 Feeds and fodders : .596 .635 2.277 2.0 2.1 : Oilseeds and products : 2.326 2.689 6.975 7.2 7.6 Soybeans : 1.489 1.659 4.161 4.4 4.5 Soybean meal : .330 .276 1.013 .9 .9 Soybean oil : .128 .220 .433 .5 .6 : Livestock products : 1.571 1.956 6.320 6.5 6.6 Beef, pork & variety meats : .833 .957 3.206 3.4 3.4 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .302 .386 1.423 1.5 1.5 Poultry & products : .415 .577 1.720 1.8 1.9 Dairy products : .248 .202 .832 .8 .8 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .321 .363 1.260 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters : .384 .754 2.306 2.5 3.4 Seeds : .182 .215 .619 .6 .6 Horticultural products : 2.061 2.559 8.098 8.6 8.9 Fruits & preparations : .704 .794 3.047 3.3 3.3 Vegetables & preparations : .537 .675 2.169 2.3 2.4 Tree nuts & preparations : .420 .402 1.124 1.0 1.1 Sugar, tropical, and other : .529 .524 1.931 2.1 2.1 : Total 3/ : 11.831 14.046 43.474 45.0 48.5 : Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1993-95 : October-December : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995 Commodity : 1993 : 1994 : 1994 : Forecast : : : : Nov. : Feb. : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 9.116 8.522 31.132 32.0 33.5 Wheat flour : .202 .244 1.037 1.0 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 12.612 15.747 39.845 48.4 57.0 Corn : 11.113 13.701 33.057 41.5 50.0 Feeds & fodders : 3.100 3.300 11.797 12.2 12.1 Rice : .711 1.261 2.438 2.7 2.9 Oilseeds and products : 8.440 10.499 24.154 29.9 30.5 Soybeans : 5.983 7.691 16.364 21.0 21.4 Soybean meal : 1.549 1.500 4.859 5.4 5.4 Soybean oil : .217 .347 .694 .8 .9 Beef, pork & variety meats : .247 .303 1.025 1.1 1.1 Poultry meat : .335 .476 1.364 1.5 1.6 Animal fats : .364 .447 1.341 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters : .302 .492 1.639 1.6 2.2 Horticultural products : 1.544 1.908 6.600 7.4 7.4 Other : 2.403 2.426 5.042 5.0 6.0 Total agriculture : 39.377 45.625 127.414 144.1 156.6 Major bulk products 4/ : 28.724 33.713 91.418 105.7 117.0 : 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Printed copies of the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports will be available in about a week. For further information, contact Joel Greene (202) 219-0816. END_OF_FILE