OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary August 30, 2000 August 2000, ERS-AES-27 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is published four times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This release contains only the text of the report -- tables and graphics are not included. Subscriptions to the published version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # ERS-AES, $30/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- $51.5 BILLION IN U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST FOR 2001 Continued strong world economic growth and resulting increases in global imports will push the projected value of U.S. agricultural exports up $1 billion to $51.5 billion in fiscal 2001. Increases are forecast for cotton and horticultural products. Prices, particularly for bulk commodities, are expected to remain relatively low, limiting gains in export value. Most of the gain in export value will result from anticipated larger export volume. Expected 2001 bulk export volume is up 9.5 million tons from a year earlier to 121.9 million, the largest since fiscal 1995. Corn accounts for two-thirds of the projected total gain, with a strong increase also forecast for wheat. The projected continued increase in U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 2001 is a modest gain to $39.5 billion. This reflects slower projected 2001 growth of the U.S. economy and higher domestic supplies of many commodities. The strong dollar will help hold import values down. Most of the import growth is attributed to the major horticultural products--fruits, vegetables, and wine and malt beverages. With exports expected to rise faster than imports for the first time since 1996, the agricultural trade surplus is forecast up. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1996-2001 Year ending September 30 Item 1996 1997 1998 1999 Fiscal 2000 Fiscal 2001 June Aug. Aug. Billion dollars Exports 59.8 57.3 53.6 49.1 50.0 50.5 51.5 Imports 32.6 35.8 37.0 37.5 39.0 39.0 39.5 Balance 27.2 21.5 16.6 11.6 11.0 11.5 12.0 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Aug. 12, 2000, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1999-2001 October-June Fiscal Estimate Forecast Commodity 1999 2000 1999 2000 2001 June Aug. Aug. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 10.801 10.291 14.400 13.6 13.6 13.6 Wheat & flour 2.783 2.526 3.839 3.6 3.5 3.7 Rice 0.844 0.736 1.015 0.9 0.9 0.8 Coarse grains 2/ 4.150 3.933 5.607 5.0 5.2 5.2 Corn 3.729 3.426 5.044 4.4 4.5 4.6 Feeds and fodders 1.741 1.826 2.240 2.4 2.4 2.2 Oilseeds and products 6.834 6.860 8.690 8.5 8.7 8.7 Soybeans 3.897 4.222 4.757 5.0 5.2 5.0 Soybean meal 0.844 0.963 1.066 1.2 1.2 1.2 Soybean oil 0.522 0.232 0.607 0.3 0.3 0.4 Livestock products 5.381 6.674 7.232 8.3 8.4 8.4 Beef, pork, & variety meats 3.005 3.984 4.134 4.8 5.0 5.1 Hides & skins, incl. furs 0.830 1.062 1.113 1.3 1.2 1.2 Poultry & products 1.513 1.719 2.068 2.2 2.3 2.2 Poultry meat 1.274 1.497 1.755 1.9 2.0 1.9 Dairy products 0.644 0.744 0.873 1.0 1.0 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.197 1.045 1.376 1.3 1.3 1.3 Cotton & linters 1.103 1.468 1.323 1.8 1.8 2.6 Seeds 0.669 0.635 0.807 0.8 0.8 0.9 Horticultural products 7.756 7.831 10.278 10.4 10.4 10.7 Fruits & preparations 2.397 2.425 3.275 3.3 3.3 3.4 Vegetables & preparations 2.189 2.285 2.820 2.9 2.9 3.0 Tree nuts & preparations 0.854 0.728 1.080 1.0 0.9 0.9 Sugar & tropical products 1.508 1.608 2.043 2.1 2.2 2.2 Major bulk products 3/ 13.874 13.830 17.742 17.6 17.7 18.5 Total 4/ 37.408 38.878 49.091 50.0 50.5 51.5 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1999-2001 October-June Fiscal Estimate Forecast Commodity 1999 2000 1999 2000 2001 June Aug. Aug. Million metric tons Wheat 20.455 19.653 28.817 27.0 27.0 29.0 Wheat flour 0.651 0.644 0.951 1.1 1.0 1.0 Rice 2.545 2.639 3.086 3.1 3.3 3.2 Coarse grains 1/ 41.897 40.844 57.720 52.3 53.7 60.2 Corn 37.654 35.596 51.949 46.0 47.0 53.5 Feeds & fodders 9.082 10.114 11.751 12.1 12.8 11.6 Oilseeds and products 27.038 29.775 33.658 35.4 36.3 37.8 Soybeans 18.576 21.644 23.029 25.7 26.7 27.5 Soybean meal 5.110 5.257 6.461 6.2 6.4 6.7 Soybean oil 0.896 0.520 1.076 0.6 0.6 0.8 Beef, pork, & variety meats 1.176 1.492 1.607 1.7 1.9 1.8 Poultry meat 1.743 2.204 2.416 2.7 2.8 2.7 Animal fats 1.074 0.894 1.395 1.2 1.2 1.2 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.178 0.153 0.205 0.2 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.755 1.255 0.922 1.5 1.5 1.8 Horticultural products 5.626 5.810 7.337 7.4 7.5 7.7 Sugar & tropical products 0.932 0.947 1.262 1.3 1.3 1.3 Total major bulk products 2/83.948 86.187 113.779 109.8 112.4 121.9 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1999-2000 October-June Fiscal Fiscal 2000 Region 1999 2000 1999 Estimate June Aug. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 14.041 15.155 18.468 19.1 19.9 Japan 6.879 7.306 8.940 9.2 9.5 China 0.742 1.101 1.012 1.3 1.5 Hong Kong 0.962 0.949 1.264 1.2 1.2 Taiwan 1.561 1.578 2.046 2.0 2.1 South Korea 1.835 1.939 2.483 2.6 2.6 Southeast Asia 1.663 1.955 2.213 2.4 2.6 Indonesia 0.380 0.480 0.498 0.6 0.6 Philippines 0.532 0.663 0.734 0.8 0.9 Malaysia 0.238 0.219 0.332 0.3 0.3 Thailand 0.329 0.381 0.406 0.5 0.5 South Asia 0.391 0.320 0.500 0.4 0.4 Western Hemisphere 13.235 13.611 17.459 17.9 17.9 Canada 5.210 5.690 6.957 7.5 7.6 Mexico 4.237 4.635 5.675 6.0 6.2 Brazil 0.307 0.202 0.369 0.3 0.2 Venezuela 0.365 0.301 0.458 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 3.115 2.782 4.000 3.7 3.5 Western Europe 5.989 5.409 7.531 6.7 6.4 European Union 5.739 5.168 6.960 6.2 5.9 Central and Eastern Europe 0.156 0.129 0.190 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1/ 0.489 0.834 0.816 1.0 1.4 Russia 0.279 0.623 0.468 0.6 1.0 Middle East 1.490 1.761 1.979 2.3 2.2 Turkey 0.369 0.561 0.448 0.7 0.7 Saudi Arabia 0.364 0.348 0.468 0.5 0.4 Africa 1.634 1.571 2.160 2.2 1.9 North Africa 1.113 1.066 1.468 1.5 1.3 Egypt 0.778 0.738 1.001 1.0 0.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.520 0.505 0.692 0.7 0.6 Oceania 0.375 0.358 0.499 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.050 0.000 0.1 0.1 Total 2/ 37.408 38.878 49.091 50.0 50.5 _____________________________________________________________________ Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country in 1998 and 1999, but are included in the total only for 2000. 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