OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY August 29, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1997 AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $58 BILLION, FISCAL 1996 UNCHANGED AT $60 BILLION The fiscal 1997 projection for U.S. agricultural exports is $58 billion, $2 billion lower than the forecast for fiscal 1996, which is unchanged at $60 billion. Although prices will remain strong, lower expected shipments of wheat, coarse grains, and cotton will reduce export value for these commodities by nearly than $4 billion in 1997. Oilseed exports are projected to increase $800 million because of higher expected soybean and meal prices and increased soybean oil shipments. Livestock, poultry, and horticultural product exports are expected to gain more than $1 billion. Tight bulk supplies and increased exports by competitors will reduce major bulk export volume from 120.2 million tons to 109.1 million in 1997. Total volume will decline to 150.5 million tons. U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 1997 are projected at a record $32 billion, $500 million higher than expected in fiscal 1996. Imports are revised upward $1 billion to $31.5 billion in 1996 because of increased horticultural and animal product imports. The fiscal 1997 agricultural trade surplus is projected at $26 billion, down $2.5 billion from the revised fiscal 1996 forecast. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1992-1997 _______________________________________________________________________________ -- Year ending September 30 -- : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Fiscal : Forecast : Fiscal Item : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : Fiscal 1996 : 1997 : : : : : May : Aug : Projected _______________________________________________________________________________ : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports :42.3 42.5 43.5 54.1 60.0 60.0 58.0 : Imports :24.3 24.5 26.4 29.5 30.5 31.5 32.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ : Trade : balance :18.0 18.0 17.1 24.6 29.5 28.5 26.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ : Million metric tons -- Export : volume :143.6 146.4 126.8 169.2 160.4 160.0 150.5 _______________________________________________________________________________ This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the August 12, 1996, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1994-97 _______________________________________________________________________________ : October-June :Fiscal : Fiscal 1996: Fiscal Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : 1997 : : : : May : Aug. :Projected _______________________________________________________________________________ : -- Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ :12.555 16.314 17.637 22.0 21.8 18.7 Wheat & flour :3.596 4.923 5.201 6.9 6.9 4.8 Rice : .820 .773 1.050 1.1 1.1 .9 Coarse grains 2/ :5.137 7.430 7.411 9.5 9.5 8.6 Corn :4.559 6.709 6.619 8.6 8.6 7.6 Feeds and fodders :1.893 2.032 2.511 2.9 2.8 2.9 : Oilseeds and products :7.309 7.757 9.119 9.4 9.6 10.4 Soybeans :4.253 5.159 5.274 6.1 6.2 6.7 Soybean meal : .844 .935 1.079 1.1 1.2 1.3 Soybean oil : .721 .241 .809 .4 .3 .5 : Livestock products :5.787 6.291 7.808 8.6 8.7 9.3 Beef, pork & variety meats :2.904 3.434 4.044 4.7 4.7 5.1 Hides & skins, incl. furs :1.297 1.260 1.719 1.6 1.7 1.7 Poultry & products :1.618 1.996 2.210 2.7 2.7 2.9 Dairy products : .588 .563 .812 .8 .7 .5 Tobacco, unmanufactured :1.116 1.173 1.329 1.5 1.4 1.4 : Cotton & linters :3.126 2.788 3.496 3.0 3.1 2.4 Seeds : .560 .586 .680 .7 .7 .7 Horticultural products :6.956 7.080 9.110 9.4 9.3 9.8 Fruits & preparations :2.425 2.454 3.263 3.4 3.3 3.5 Vegetables & preparations :2.014 1.865 2.538 2.5 2.4 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .830 1.008 1.108 1.2 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, and other :1.451 1.496 1.940 1.9 2.0 2.0 : Total 3/ :41.066 46.044 54.141 60.0 60.0 58.0 _______________________________________________________________________________ Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-97 _____________________________________________________________________________ : October-June : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 : Fiscal Commodity :1994/95 : 1995/96: 1995 : Forecast : 1997 : : : May : Aug :Projected _______________________________________________________________________________ : --Million metric tons-- Wheat :22.907 23.405 32.094 32.0 32.0 25.0 Wheat flour : .894 .340 1.184 .5 .5 1.0 Rice : 3.017 2.227 3.767 3.0 3.0 2.3 Coarse grains 2/ :47.418 48.125 65.670 61.4 61.1 58.0 Corn :42.085 43.591 58.645 55.5 55.0 51.5 Feeds & fodders :10.147 9.574 13.483 13.5 12.9 13.0 Oilseeds and products :27.629 25.066 34.050 30.1 30.8 30.8 Soybeans :19.267 18.557 23.584 22.0 22.4 22.3 Soybean meal : 4.800 4.043 6.094 4.9 5.3 5.2 Soybean oil : 1.089 .399 1.216 .7 .5 .8 Beef, pork & variety meats : .912 1.097 1.262 1.5 1.5 1.6 Poultry meat : 1.373 1.720 1.901 2.3 2.3 2.5 Animal fats : 1.344 1.148 1.725 1.7 1.6 1.8 Cotton & linters : 1.863 1.562 2.068 1.7 1.7 1.5 Horticultural products 4/ : 5.470 5.416 7.001 7.2 7.1 7.5 Other : 4.071 4.552 4.999 5.5 5.5 5.5 Total agriculture :127.045 124.232 169.204 160.4 160.0 150.5 Major bulk products 5/ : 94.472 93.876 127.183 120.1 120.2 109.1 _______________________________________________________________________________ 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Products measured in liters not included. 5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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