OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY May 31, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Export Forecast Revised Upward $3 Billion to $51.5 Billion U.S. agricultural exports are forecast at $51.5 billion in fiscal 1995, up $8 billion from fiscal 1994 and $3 billion above the February 1995 forecast. Much of the gain from the previous forecast is due to increased export prices, particularly for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds and products, and cotton. Wheat, corn, and soybean exports gained $700 million, and record prices for cotton have raised cotton export prospects $600 million since February. China's withdrawal from the corn export market and its strong demand for cotton and soybean oil are boosting U.S. export prospects. U.S. exports to China are forecast at a record $2.3 billion in fiscal 1995. Overall export volume is forecast at 159.2 million tons, 2.6 million tons higher than in February. Export prospects for U.S. livestock, poultry, and horticultural products advanced $1 billion since the February forecast. Record meat, fruit, and vegetable exports are expected in fiscal 1995 because world income growth and a weaker dollar are supporting consumer demand for a variety of food items. As a result, U.S. high-value product exports are expected to surpass $29 billion. The forecast for U.S. agricultural imports has been raised $1 billion from February to $29.5 billion. Resurgent coffee prices and expected higher prices for rubber and horticultural products account for part of the increase, and higher grain and oilseed imports are further boosting value. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is projected at $22 billion, the highest since 1982. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1990-1995 -- Year beginning October 1 -- : : : : : : Forecast Item : FY 1990 : FY 1991 : FY 1992 : FY 1993 : FY 1994 : FY 1995 : : : : : : Feb. : May : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 40.1 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 48.5 51.5 : Imports : 22.5 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 28.5 29.5 : Trade : balance : 17.6 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 20.0 22.0 : : -- Million tons -- Export : volume : 148.7 129.4 143.6 146.4 127.4 156.6 159.2 : This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 11, 1995, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Printed copies of the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports will be available in about a week. For more information, contact Joel Greene (202) 219-0816. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1993-95 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995 Commodity : 1993/94 : 1994/95 : 1994 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 7.261 8.524 13.413 15.3 16.0 Wheat & flour : 2.310 2.541 4.228 5.0 5.1 Rice : .463 .574 .891 .8 .9 Coarse grains 2/ : 2.613 3.371 4.569 6.0 6.4 Corn : 2.220 2.974 3.817 5.3 5.6 Feeds and fodders : 1.174 1.279 2.277 2.1 2.2 : Oilseeds and products : 4.439 5.441 6.975 7.6 8.2 Soybeans : 2.879 3.261 4.161 4.5 4.8 Soybean meal : .615 .601 1.013 .9 .9 Soybean oil : .228 .574 .433 .6 .8 : Livestock products : 3.042 3.795 6.320 6.6 6.9 Beef, pork & variety meats : 1.504 1.848 3.206 3.4 3.6 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .659 .845 1.423 1.5 1.6 Poultry & products : .803 1.090 1.720 1.9 2.1 Dairy products : .477 .378 .832 .8 .8 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .671 .789 1.260 1.3 1.4 Cotton & linters : .970 2.219 2.306 3.4 4.0 Seeds : .423 .455 .619 .6 .7 Horticultural products : 3.876 4.679 8.098 8.9 9.4 Fruits & preparations : 1.347 1.550 3.047 3.3 3.4 Vegetables & preparations : 1.058 1.295 2.169 2.4 2.6 Tree nuts & preparations : .680 .666 1.124 1.1 1.1 Sugar, tropical, and other : .999 .995 1.931 2.1 2.0 : Total 3/ : 22.961 28.365 43.474 48.5 51.5 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1993-95 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1995 Commodity : 1993/94 : 1994/95 : 1994 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 17.105 16.412 31.132 33.5 33.0 Wheat flour : .520 .585 1.037 1.0 1.1 Coarse grains 2/ : 22.044 32.147 39.845 57.0 58.4 Corn : 18.665 28.388 33.057 50.0 51.5 Feeds & fodders : 6.176 6.895 11.797 12.1 12.4 Rice : 1.325 2.129 2.438 2.9 3.0 Oilseeds and products : 15.694 20.809 24.154 30.5 31.1 Soybeans : 11.219 14.871 16.364 21.4 21.8 Soybean meal : 2.879 3.382 4.859 5.4 5.4 Soybean oil : .381 .898 .694 .9 1.1 Beef, pork & variety meats : .481 .586 1.025 1.1 1.1 Poultry meat : .637 .925 1.364 1.6 1.8 Animal fats : .650 .861 1.341 1.3 1.5 Cotton & linters : .752 1.363 1.639 2.2 2.3 Horticultural products : 3.086 3.643 6.600 7.4 7.5 Other : 3.335 3.409 5.042 6.0 6.0 Total agriculture : 71.805 89.764 127.414 156.6 159.2 Major bulk products 4/ : 52.445 66.922 91.418 117.0 118.5 : 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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