OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS--SUMMARY May 30, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1996 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REMAINS AT $60 BILLION The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural exports is unchanged from February's $60 billion. The value of wheat, corn, cotton, and poultry exports is revised upward, but reductions for oilseeds, hides, and horticultural products are offsetting. Wheat prices have been higher than expected because of poor growing conditions for the 1996 U.S. crop. Strong import demand has not only raised corn export volume, but raised expected prices. The value of soybean and product exports is projected lower as soybean prices decline because of increased foreign exports and weaker demand for U.S. soybean products. Total export volume is lowered slightly to 160.4 million tons. Major country changes include a $600-million increase to Mexico, reflecting improved bulk commodity sales. Exports to China and South Korea are reduced to reflect lower than anticipated shipments to date. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. agricultural imports is raised $1 billion to $30.5 billion. Higher cocoa, sugar, and horticultural imports account for the increase. As a result, the U.S. agricultural trade surplus forecast is reduced $1 billion to $29.5 billion in fiscal 1996. The forecast still surpassed the previous record of $26.6 billion set in fiscal 1981. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1991-1996 -- Year ending September 30 : : : : : : Forecast Item : 1991 : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996 : : : : : : Feb. : May : -- Billion dollars -- : Exports : 37.5 42.3 42.5 43.5 54.1 60.0 60.0 Imports : 22.6 24.3 24.5 26.4 29.5 29.5 30.5 : Trade : balance : 14.9 18.0 18.0 17.1 24.6 30.5 29.5 : : -- Million metric tons -- Export : volume : 129.4 143.6 146.4 126.8 169.2 161.6 160.4 : This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the May 10, 1996, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1994-96 : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ : 8.524 11.030 17.637 21.0 22.0 Wheat & flour : 2.541 3.446 5.201 6.7 6.9 Rice : .574 .541 1.050 1.0 1.1 Coarse grains 2/ : 3.371 4.909 7.411 8.7 9.5 Corn : 2.974 4.361 6.619 7.8 8.6 Feeds and fodders : 1.279 1.365 2.511 3.0 2.9 : Oilseeds and products : 5.441 5.837 9.119 10.0 9.4 Soybeans : 3.261 3.965 5.274 6.3 6.1 Soybean meal : .601 .668 1.079 1.3 1.1 Soybean oil : .574 .199 .809 .5 .4 : Livestock products : 3.816 4.084 7.808 8.8 8.6 Beef, pork & variety meats : 1.844 2.176 4.044 4.7 4.7 Hides & skins, incl. furs : .853 .787 1.719 1.9 1.6 Poultry & products : 1.090 1.356 2.210 2.4 2.7 Dairy products : .365 .360 .812 .9 .8 Tobacco, unmanufactured : .789 .855 1.329 1.4 1.5 Cotton & linters : 2.219 2.313 3.496 2.7 3.0 Seeds : .455 .460 .680 .7 .7 Horticultural products : 4.679 4.643 9.110 10.0 9.4 Fruits & preparations : 1.550 1.590 3.263 3.5 3.4 Vegetables & preparations : 1.295 1.185 2.538 2.6 2.5 Tree nuts & preparations : .666 .738 1.108 1.2 1.2 Sugar, tropical, and other : .989 .951 1.940 2.1 1.9 : Total 3/ : 28.367 31.889 54.141 60.0 60.0 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1994-96 : October-March : Fiscal: Fiscal 1996 Commodity : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Million metric tons-- Wheat : 16.412 16.814 32.094 33.5 32.0 Wheat flour : .585 .218 1.184 1.0 .5 Rice : 2.129 1.524 3.767 3.2 3.0 Coarse grains 2/ : 32.147 33.663 65.670 58.7 61.4 Corn : 28.388 30.069 58.645 53.0 55.5 Feeds & fodders : 6.895 6.661 13.483 13.8 13.5 Oilseeds and products : 20.809 19.342 34.050 30.9 30.1 Soybeans : 14.871 14.563 23.584 22.0 22.0 Soybean meal : 3.382 2.952 6.094 5.3 4.9 Soybean oil : .868 .329 1.216 .8 .7 Beef, pork & variety meats : .583 .685 1.262 1.5 1.5 Poultry meat : .925 1.168 1.901 2.2 2.3 Animal fats : .861 .789 1.725 2.1 1.7 Cotton & linters : 1.363 1.286 2.068 1.7 1.7 Horticultural products 4/ : 3.643 3.569 7.001 7.5 7.2 Other : 2.754 2.943 4.999 5.5 5.5 Total agriculture : 89.106 88.662 169.204 161.6 160.4 Major bulk products 5/ : 66.922 67.850 127.183 119.1 120.1 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. 4/ Products measured in liters not included. 5/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 1994-96 1/ : October-March : Fiscal : Fiscal 1996 Region : 1994/95 : 1995/96 : 1995 : Forecast : : : : Feb. : May : --Billion dollars-- : Western Europe : 5.199 5.823 8.781 9.4 9.4 European Union 2/ : 5.006 5.621 8.416 9.0 9.0 Other Western Europe : .193 .202 .365 .4 .4 : Central and Eastern Europe : .201 .215 .306 .3 .3 : Former Soviet Union : .576 .913 1.158 1.5 1.6 Russia : .460 .646 .911 1.3 1.3 : Asia : 11.988 13.848 23.980 27.7 27.6 Japan : 5.028 5.988 10.450 11.7 12.0 China : 1.278 1.204 2.412 2.9 2.5 Other East Asia : 3.740 4.155 7.560 9.0 8.3 Taiwan : 1.273 1.437 2.552 2.8 2.8 South Korea : 1.729 1.958 3.575 4.6 4.0 Hong Kong : .734 .759 1.425 1.6 1.5 Southeast Asia : 1.370 2.038 2.582 3.0 3.8 Philippines : .319 .450 .675 .8 .9 South Asia : .572 .463 .976 1.1 1.0 Pakistan : .286 .290 .341 .5 .4 : Middle East : 1.324 1.463 2.426 2.7 2.7 Israel : .239 .330 .462 .5 .6 Saudi Arabia : .263 .330 .486 .5 .6 : Africa : 1.571 1.745 2.988 3.2 3.2 North Africa : 1.161 1.251 2.111 2.2 2.3 Egypt : .740 .822 1.378 1.4 1.4 Algeria : .255 .194 .461 .5 .4 Sub-Saharan Africa : .410 .494 .877 1.0 1.0 : Latin America : 4.280 4.799 8.103 8.5 8.9 Mexico : 1.961 2.326 3.699 3.8 4.4 Other Latin America : 2.319 2.311 4.404 4.7 4.5 Brazil : .466 .271 .638 .6 .4 Venezuela : .238 .216 .496 .5 .4 Canada : 2.896 2.861 5.836 6.1 5.9 : Oceania : .332 .223 .562 .6 .4 : Total : 28.367 31.889 54.141 60.0 60.0 : Developed countries : 13.695 15.224 26.092 28.3 28.3 Developing countries : 12.617 14.333 24.173 27.0 27.3 Other countries : 2.055 2.332 3.876 4.7 4.4 : 1/ Country totals are adjusted for transshipments through Canada. 2/ Austria, Finland, and Sweden are included in the European Union. 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