OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE-Summary February 22, 2001 February 2001, ERS-AES-29 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available electronically about 1 week following this summary release. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 2001 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORT FORECAST REMAINS AT $53 BILLION Forecasts of U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal 2001 remain at $53 billion, the same as in November, and 4 percent above fiscal 2000. Imports also are unchanged from the November estimate of $40 billion, a 3-percent gain over 2000. Offsetting weaker bulk commodity exports, horticultural and poultry product exports are stronger than previously forecast, boosted by strong demand and expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar. At $11.3 billion, horticultural exports are forecast at a record-high, with especially strong sales to Canada and Mexico. Prospects for poultry exports have improved with strong sales to Russia and several other countries. However, since November, export competition for bulk commodities is forecast stronger than earlier anticipated, and prospective economic growth has weakened somewhat, particularly in the United States and Japan. Forecast bulk export volume is reduced to 117.7 million tons, 4 percent below November, but still 2 percent above 2000. Increased competition has reduced the U.S. corn export forecast, as China is now expected to continue to provide corn export subsidies this year. Also, Argentinas corn exports have been raised substantially since November. Anticipated export competition in soybeans from Argentina and Brazil has also increased since November. And, weaker economic growth is limiting cotton demand. Year-to-year, U.S. import growth reflects strong U.S. demand. Import forecasts are unchanged from November. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1996-2001 Year ending September 30 Item 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Fiscal 2001 Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Exports 59.9 57.4 53.7 49.2 50.9 53.0 53.0 Imports 32.5 35.7 36.8 37.3 38.9 40.0 40.0 Balance 27.4 21.7 16.9 11.9 12.0 13.0 13.0 This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Feb. 8, 2001, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 2000-2001 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Grains and feeds 1/ 3.641 3.542 13.886 14.6 14.5 Wheat & flour 0.940 0.921 3.523 3.8 3.8 Rice 0.288 0.219 0.908 0.8 0.8 Coarse grains 2/ 1.335 1.232 5.281 5.8 5.5 Corn 1.156 1.028 4.602 5.3 4.9 Feeds and fodders 0.609 0.688 2.479 2.5 2.7 Oilseeds and products 2.705 2.873 8.546 9.0 8.4 Soybeans 1.718 1.888 5.074 5.4 5.0 Soybean meal 0.366 0.329 1.226 1.3 1.2 Soybean oil 0.096 0.070 0.279 0.3 0.2 Livestock products 2.260 2.436 8.596 8.8 8.8 Beef,pork &variety meats 1.306 1.190 5.035 5.2 5.0 Hides & skins,incl.furs 0.285 0.429 1.476 1.5 1.5 Poultry & products 0.611 0.624 2.260 2.2 2.3 Poultry meat 0.533 0.541 1.962 1.9 2.0 Dairy products 0.263 0.300 0.951 0.9 1.0 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.320 0.296 1.245 1.2 1.2 Cotton & linters 0.344 0.415 1.833 2.4 2.2 Seeds 0.233 0.213 0.789 0.8 0.8 Horticultural products 2.740 3.017 10.537 10.9 11.3 Fruits & preparations 0.806 0.891 3.361 3.6 3.7 Vegetables &preparations 0.743 0.796 2.988 3.0 3.1 Tree nuts & preparations 0.335 0.460 0.987 1.0 1.1 Sugar & tropical products0.572 0.648 2.260 2.3 2.4 Major bulk products 3/ 5.382 4.871 17.764 19.3 18.3 Total 4/ 13.689 14.364 50.905 53.0 53.0 1/ Includes pulses and processed grain products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. 4/ Total includes a small amount of miscellaneous products not elsewhere specified. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 2000-2001 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Commodity 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Nov. Feb. Million metric tons Wheat 7.334 7.133 27.818 28.7 28.7 Wheat flour 0.265 0.181 0.812 0.8 0.8 Rice 1.012 0.858 3.310 3.1 3.1 Coarse grains 1/ 14.806 13.329 56.535 62.8 58.0 Corn 12.887 11.305 49.371 57.0 52.0 Feeds & fodders 3.252 3.373 13.315 13.0 14.1 Oilseeds and products 12.257 12.581 36.493 36.7 35.9 Soybeans 9.155 10.006 26.058 26.4 26.1 Soybean meal 2.035 1.623 6.651 6.7 6.4 Soybean oil 0.219 0.189 0.624 0.8 0.6 Beef, pork & variety meats0.492 0.460 1.845 1.8 1.8 Poultry meat 0.755 0.756 2.847 2.8 2.9 Animal fats 0.219 0.306 1.206 1.2 1.2 Tobacco, unmanufactured 0.043 0.043 0.183 0.2 0.2 Cotton & linters 0.294 0.308 1.539 1.7 1.6 Horticultural products 1.936 2.176 7.732 7.7 8.3 Sugar & tropical products 0.327 0.350 1.276 1.3 1.4 Total major bulk products 2/ 32.644 31.677 115.443 122.9 117.7 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and tobacco. Table 4--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by region, 2000-2001 October-December Fiscal Fiscal 2001 Region 2000 2001 2000 Forecast Nov. Feb. Billion dollars Asia (excluding Mid East) 3.331 3.484 19.688 21.2 20.2 Japan 1.566 1.485 9.353 9.8 9.2 China 0.207 0.395 1.474 1.6 1.8 Hong Kong 0.226 0.247 1.255 1.3 1.3 Taiwan 0.331 0.314 2.011 2.1 2.0 South Korea 0.413 0.379 2.569 3.1 2.7 Southeast Asia 0.477 0.577 2.602 2.9 2.8 Indonesia 0.122 0.131 0.681 0.8 0.8 Philippines 0.137 0.189 0.866 0.9 0.9 Malaysia 0.050 0.065 0.284 0.4 0.3 Thailand 0.117 0.137 0.492 0.5 0.5 South Asia 0.111 0.082 0.416 0.4 0.4 Western Hemisphere 3.184 3.458 18.159 19.0 19.6 Canada 1.282 1.416 7.520 7.8 8.1 Mexico 1.087 1.258 6.329 6.8 7.1 Brazil 0.037 0.047 0.253 0.3 0.3 Venezuela 0.074 0.073 0.404 0.4 0.4 Other Latin America 0.704 0.665 3.653 3.7 3.7 Western Europe 1.462 1.445 6.712 6.6 6.6 European Union 1.423 1.301 6.373 6.3 6.2 Central and Eastern Europe 0.031 0.034 0.167 0.2 0.2 New Independent States 1 0.287 0.186 0.934 0.8 0.8 Russia 0.212 0.143 0.671 0.6 0.6 Middle East 0.468 0.457 2.363 2.4 2.4 Turkey 0.112 0.089 0.701 0.8 0.7 Saudi Arabia 0.104 0.089 0.482 0.5 0.5 Africa 0.385 0.428 2.272 2.3 2.5 North Africa 0.271 0.293 1.565 1.6 1.7 Egypt 0.197 0.195 1.094 1.0 1.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.114 0.135 0.707 0.7 0.8 Oceania 0.086 0.092 0.490 0.5 0.5 Transshipments 2/ 0.000 0.165 0.123 0.1 0.2 Total 2/ 9.233 9.751 50.905 53.0 53.0 Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ New Independent States (NIS) are the former Soviet Union, including the Baltic Republics. 2/ Transshipments through Canada are distributed by country prior to 2000, but are included in the total only for 2000 and 2001. 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