OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS -- SUMMARY August 28, 1998 August 1998, AES-19 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. The complete text of the report will be available 1-2 weeks following this summary release. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FISCAL 1999 U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS FORECAST AT $52 BILLION Fiscal 1999 U.S. agricultural exports are projected at $52 billion, down $2.5 billion from the revised fiscal 1998 forecast. Export volume is projected up 6.7 million tons due to expected gains in wheat and corn. However, a stronger dollar, large global supplies, and weak demand are pressuring prices of agricultural products. Projected soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to fall $1.5 billion from fiscal 1998, reflecting sharply lower prices, while reduced shipments are expected to lower cotton exports $900 million. The total value of grain and feed exports is expected to be little changed from fiscal 1998 as higher grain export volumes offset lower prices. Slower growth is expected in agricultural imports in fiscal 1999. The value of imports is expected to reach $39.5 billion, up $1.5 billion from fiscal 1998. The projected decline in fiscal 1999 exports and the increase in imports will narrow the U.S. agricultural trade surplus to $12.5 billion, the smallest since 1987. The revised fiscal 1998 export forecast is down $500 million from May, to $54.5 billion, reflecting weaker export unit values for wheat and slowed soybean shipments. Fiscal 1998 imports, however, remains at $38 billion as previously projected. The expected fiscal 1998 surplus slips slightly to $16.5 billion. Table 1--U.S. agricultural trade, fiscal years, 1994-1999 -- Year ending September 30 -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 Forecast 1998 Fiscal 1999 May Aug. projected ----------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Exports 43.9 54.6 59.8 57.3 55.0 54.5 52.0 Imports 26.6 29.9 32.6 35.8 38.0 38.0 39.5 Balance 17.3 24.7 27.2 21.5 17.0 16.5 12.5 --Million metric tons -- Ex. volume 127.5 169.7 158.4 147.3 142.2 142.0 148.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This outlook reflects commodity forecasts in the Aug. 12, 1998, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by commodity, 1997-1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- October-June Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Projected May Aug. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- --Billion dollars-- Grains and feeds 1/ 12.521 10.841 16.466 14.3 14.0 14.0 Wheat & flour 2.835 2.910 4.263 4.1 3.8 4.2 Rice 0.803 0.921 0.962 1.0 1.1 1.0 Coarse grains 2/ 5.600 3.900 6.921 5.0 5.0 4.7 Corn 4.980 3.273 6.107 4.3 4.3 4.2 Feeds and fodders 2.037 1.849 2.673 2.5 2.4 2.3 Oilseeds and products 9.551 9.680 11.437 11.6 11.3 9.5 Soybeans 6.112 5.580 6.950 6.5 6.2 5.1 Soybean meal 1.505 1.741 1.746 1.8 1.9 1.5 Soybean oil 0.384 0.711 0.516 0.8 0.8 0.8 Livestock products 5.683 5.862 7.706 7.8 7.9 7.9 Red meats 2.884 3.086 3.977 4.0 4.1 4.3 Hides, skins, furs 1.300 1.073 1.693 1.5 1.4 1.4 Poultry & products 2.174 2.092 2.872 2.7 2.8 2.8 Poultry meat 1.905 1.809 2.516 2.3 2.4 2.4 Dairy products 0.584 0.691 0.842 0.9 0.9 0.9 Tobacco, unmanufactured 1.391 1.213 1.612 1.4 1.4 1.4 Cotton & linters 2.268 2.105 2.737 2.6 2.6 1.7 Seeds 0.754 0.716 0.924 0.9 0.9 0.9 Horticultural products 7.939 7.865 10.598 10.6 10.6 10.6 Fruits & preparations 2.493 2.368 3.412 3.3 3.3 3.3 Vegetables & prep. 2.025 2.185 2.655 2.8 2.8 2.9 Tree nuts & prep. 0.956 0.938 1.283 1.2 1.3 1.3 Sugar, tropical, & other 1.509 1.533 2.064 2.2 2.1 2.2 Total 3/ 44.374 42.598 57.258 55.0 54.5 52.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes pulses and corn products. 2/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 3/ Totals might not add due to rounding. Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Volume by commodity, 1997-99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- October-June Fiscal Fiscal 1998 Fiscal 1999 Commodity 1997 1998 1997 Forecast Projected May Aug. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --Million metric tons-- Wheat 15.547 18.397 24.531 26.0 25.5 31.5 Wheat flour 0.355 0.328 0.504 0.5 0.5 0.5 Rice 2.087 2.687 2.564 2.8 3.1 2.7 Coarse grains 1/ 41.635 33.075 53.027 43.7 43.8 45.9 Corn 36.885 27.774 46.579 37.5 37.5 40.5 Feeds & fodders 9.371 8.962 12.259 11.7 11.7 11.9 Oilseeds & prod. 29.321 31.773 33.942 36.8 36.2 35.6 Soybeans 21.215 21.016 24.027 24.8 23.5 23.3 Soybean meal 5.450 7.387 6.345 7.7 8.4 8.2 Soybean oil 0.693 1.130 0.924 1.3 1.3 1.3 Red meats 0.982 1.175 1.356 1.5 1.6 1.6 Poultry meat 1.872 2.070 2.553 2.6 2.7 2.8 Animal fats 0.768 0.967 1.028 1.1 1.3 1.1 Cotton & linters 1.356 1.319 1.648 1.6 1.6 1.1 Horticultural prod. 5.709 5.743 7.539 7.7 7.7 7.7 Other 4.857 4.702 6.366 6.2 6.3 6.3 Total agriculture 113.860 111.198 147.317 142.2 142.0 148.7 Major bulk prod.2/ 81.840 76.494 105.797 98.9 97.5 104.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 2/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, and cotton. 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