Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Production Gains 3 Percent, Stocks Up Only 1 Percent Production of fall potatoes is estimated at 434 million cwt in 1998, up 3 percent from a year ago but 4 percent below 1996. December 1 stocks, at 281 million cwt in the 15 storage States, are up 1 percent from last year but 5 percent below 1996. A disappearance of 144 million cwt is up 7 percent from last year. Processors used 74 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year. Pot 1-2 (12-98) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 442,752 295,100 262,120 227,080 189,410 147,885 102,810 1997 : 412,776 278,630 245,750 212,362 175,270 133,590 92,840 1998 : 425,115 281,020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,180 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,460 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,820 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 73,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on December 1, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1997 : Crop of 1998 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 1997 : Prod : : 1998 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,200 2,700 64 3,708 3,000 81 CO : 24,993 19,400 78 25,360 18,800 74 ID : 140,314 102,000 73 139,650 101,000 72 ME : 19,170 15,600 81 18,060 14,100 78 MI : 14,250 8,500 60 14,725 8,800 60 MN : 20,440 13,500 66 21,170 13,500 64 MT : 3,328 3,180 96 3,180 3,050 96 NE : 7,527 5,300 70 8,393 5,000 60 NY : 7,700 3,600 47 7,290 3,800 52 ND : 21,525 16,000 74 28,670 20,500 72 OH : 1,175 350 30 1,200 270 23 OR : 27,161 20,500 75 26,229 20,000 76 PA : 3,190 2,000 63 3,360 1,400 42 WA : 88,160 47,000 53 93,225 49,000 53 WI : 29,643 19,000 64 30,895 18,800 61 : 15 States : 412,776 278,630 68 425,115 281,020 66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1999 crop. 1998 crop seed usage totaled 29.6 million cwt. Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, December 1, 1997-98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 5 4 2 6 93 90 ID : 8 4 92 96 ME : 4 4 51 48 8 11 37 37 MI : 1 1 72 81 27 18 MN : 12 13 11 7 2 3 75 77 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 12 16 19 22 5 3 64 59 OR : 1 1 2 2 1 4 96 93 PA : 3 2 97 98 WA : 1 1 1 1 6 6 92 92 WI : 3 3 19 13 78 84 : 11 St Avg: 3 3 11 11 5 4 81 82 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 11.5 10.5 10.3 11.5 10.5 10.3 CO : 78.0 77.0 75.8 77.8 76.9 75.7 ID : 415.0 400.0 415.0 413.0 398.0 413.0 10 SW Co : 28.0 27.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 28.0 Other ID : 387.0 373.0 387.0 385.0 371.0 385.0 IN : 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.9 5.0 ME : 78.0 71.0 65.5 77.0 71.0 64.5 MA : 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 MI : 52.0 48.0 48.0 46.0 47.5 47.5 MN : 85.0 77.0 82.0 82.0 73.0 73.0 MT : 10.4 10.4 10.6 10.2 10.4 10.6 NE : 12.7 19.6 22.0 12.4 19.3 21.8 NV : 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.9 6.9 6.9 NM : 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 5.9 NY : 29.0 28.5 27.6 28.5 28.0 27.0 ND : 134.0 125.0 126.0 131.0 105.0 122.0 OH : 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 OR : 62.0 54.5 59.0 61.0 53.5 58.0 Malheur : 13.6 11.0 11.5 13.3 10.9 11.4 Other OR : 48.4 43.5 47.5 47.7 42.6 46.6 PA : 17.0 15.0 14.5 16.5 14.5 14.0 RI : 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 SD : 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.8 4.2 4.6 UT : 4.3 3.1 2.7 4.2 3.1 2.6 WA : 163.0 152.0 165.0 161.0 152.0 165.0 WI : 83.0 84.0 84.5 81.0 83.5 83.5 WY : 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 : Total : 1,269.9 1,208.1 1,241.2 1,246.7 1,177.6 1,219.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 400 400 360 4,600 4,200 3,708 CO : 375 325 335 29,175 24,993 25,360 ID : 346 353 338 142,800 140,314 139,650 10 SW Co : 425 470 450 11,900 12,690 12,600 Other ID : 340 344 330 130,900 127,624 127,050 IN : 260 270 320 1,352 1,323 1,600 ME : 275 270 280 21,175 19,170 18,060 MA : 260 270 220 676 756 660 MI : 300 300 310 13,800 14,250 14,725 MN : 300 280 290 24,600 20,440 21,170 MT : 315 320 300 3,213 3,328 3,180 NE : 355 390 385 4,402 7,527 8,393 NV : 400 430 395 3,160 2,967 2,726 NM : 400 420 380 2,560 2,646 2,242 NY : 280 275 270 7,980 7,700 7,290 ND : 220 205 235 28,820 21,525 28,670 OH : 250 235 250 1,275 1,175 1,200 OR : 494 508 452 30,124 27,161 26,229 Malheur : 400 440 400 5,320 4,796 4,560 Other OR : 520 525 465 24,804 22,365 21,669 PA : 255 220 240 4,208 3,190 3,360 RI : 240 270 210 192 216 147 SD : 280 250 230 1,344 1,050 1,058 UT : 280 295 280 1,176 915 728 WA : 590 580 565 94,990 88,160 93,225 WI : 390 355 370 31,590 29,643 30,895 WY : 280 280 300 224 140 150 : Total : 364 359 356 453,436 422,789 434,426 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1995: 5,330 4,000 242 10 460 4,860 : 1996: 4,600 3,500 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 2,700 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 3,000 CO : : : 1995: 23,808 18,200 1,950 1,285 2,048 22,545 : 1996: 29,175 23,100 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 19,400 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 18,800 ID : : : 1995: 132,657 96,000 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 : 1996: 142,800 102,000 8,400 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 102,000 8,500 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 139,650 101,000 ME : : : 1995: 17,160 13,800 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 : 1996: 21,175 16,900 1,628 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,170 15,600 1,386 275 1,760 17,135 : 1998: 18,060 14,100 MI : : : 1995: 16,350 9,600 962 168 690 15,492 : 1996: 13,800 8,000 784 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 8,500 900 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,725 8,800 MN : : : 1995: 20,790 13,500 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 : 1996: 24,600 16,500 1,383 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 13,500 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 13,500 MT : : : 1995: 2,940 2,800 239 128 147 2,665 : 1996: 3,213 3,050 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 3,180 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 3,050 NE : : : 1995: 3,680 2,600 292 187 284 3,209 : 1996: 4,402 3,160 449 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,527 5,300 424 183 369 6,975 : 1998: 8,393 5,000 NY : : : 1995: 7,695 3,400 648 155 290 7,250 : 1996: 7,980 3,700 660 140 370 7,470 : 1997: 7,700 3,600 660 138 362 7,200 : 1998: 7,290 3,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, December 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Dec 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1995: 25,410 17,000 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 : 1996: 28,820 20,500 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 21,525 16,000 2,210 365 2,220 18,940 : 1998: 28,670 20,500 OH : : : 1995: 1,404 310 107 4 10 1,390 : 1996: 1,275 290 105 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,175 350 103 8 37 1,130 : 1998: 1,200 270 OR : : : 1995: 24,788 17,200 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 : 1996: 30,124 23,600 1,357 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,161 20,500 1,332 195 1,555 25,411 : 1998: 26,229 20,000 PA : : : 1995: 4,080 2,400 323 20 102 3,958 : 1996: 4,208 2,800 361 83 325 3,800 : 1997: 3,190 2,000 285 79 176 2,935 : 1998: 3,360 1,400 WA : : : 1995: 80,850 39,500 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 : 1996: 94,990 48,000 3,552 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 47,000 3,648 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 49,000 WI : : : 1995: 26,000 16,000 1,743 288 1,250 24,462 : 1996: 31,590 20,000 1,560 305 1,360 29,925 : 1997: 29,643 19,000 1,743 275 1,418 27,950 : 1998: 30,895 18,800 15 Sts : : : 1995: 392,942 256,310 26,093 5,524 27,633 361,855 : 1996: 442,752 295,100 24,791 5,952 39,185 397,615 : 1997: 412,776 278,630 25,176 5,110 29,893 377,773 : 1998: 425,115 281,020 23 Fall: : : 1995: 403,009 26,813 5,559 28,504 368,946 : 1996: 453,436 25,564 6,054 40,056 407,326 : 1997: 422,789 25,811 5,250 30,840 386,699 : 1998: 434,426 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1995-97 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CO : : : 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 ID : : : 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 ME : : : 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 MI : : : 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 MN : : : 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 NY : : : 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 ND : : : 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 OR : : : 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 1 2 : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 PA : : : 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 WA : : : 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1998 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 7 major fall producing States in 1998. These 7 States account for 82 percent of the 1998 fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements. Sample data from the objective yield surveys are the actual data presented in the following tables. They are provided only to show current information about the crop and trends in potato production practices. Potatoes: Harvest Loss of Potatoes by Type, 7 Major States, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types :Year: : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Cwt per Acre : : ID :1997: 14 28 28 :1998: 43 27 28 : : ME :1997: 13 11 18 14 :1998: 15 12 16 13 : : MN :1997: 10 9 32 27 :1998: 13 19 26 21 : : ND :1997: 12 19 43 25 :1998: 31 17 25 23 : : OR :1997: 14 16 15 :1998: 37 26 28 : : WA :1997: 15 24 23 :1998: 36 26 27 : : WI :1997: 20 27 19 20 :1998: 4 21 19 19 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for post-harvest samples. Potatoes: Average Number of Hills per Acre by Type, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Reds : Whites : Russets : :------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Crop: Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. :Year: of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ID :1997: 27 13,998 262 11,953 :1998: 19 12,406 264 12,134 : : ME :1997: 6 15,551 92 13,896 48 9,289 :1998: 6 15,275 102 13,091 45 10,189 : : MN :1997: 26 11,799 16 11,142 67 12,440 :1998: 33 11,125 18 11,375 76 12,725 : : ND :1997: 28 10,198 33 10,075 37 11,424 :1998: 24 9,162 53 10,099 57 11,196 : : OR :1997: 39 12,926 124 13,626 :1998: 4 13,841 34 13,981 131 13,016 : : WA :1997: 4 16,442 15 14,734 147 13,868 :1998: 3 14,053 20 13,197 158 13,924 : : WI :1997: 17 12,810 26 13,147 104 12,626 :1998: 11 12,347 41 11,699 86 11,911 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato field selected for objective yield samples. Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent, Disappearance Heavy The 15 major potato States held 281 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1998, up 1 percent from last year but 5 percent below 1996. Storage accounted for 66 percent of 1998 fall production, two percentage points below last year. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 11 percent round white, 4 percent long white (Shepody), and 82 percent russet; more russets and fewer long whites are in storage than a year ago. Disappearance in the 15 States from the start of harvest to December 1 was 144 million cwt of potatoes, up 7 percent from the same period last year but 2 percent less than the record in 1996. Shrink and loss so far this year was increased almost 10 percent from 1997 to 17.1 million cwt, up from the 15.6 million cwt lost a year ago but 6 percent below the 18.1 million cwt lost in 1996. Processing of 1998 potatoes totaled 74.0 million cwt used so far this season. This is up 8 percent from a year ago but 5 percent below two years ago. Eastern States stored 19.3 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, down 9 percent from last year and 18 percent below 1996. Maine's stocks were down 10 percent, Pennsylvania's stocks fell 30 percent, but New York's storage gained 6 percent. Central States accounted for 66.9 million cwt of potato stocks this December, up 7 percent from last year but 2 percent lower than two years ago. Minnesota's stocks were equal to last year, North Dakota gained 28 percent, and Michigan's increased 4 percent. Wisconsin's stocks were down 1 percent, Nebraska's storage fell 6 percent, and Ohio dropped 23 percent. Western States held 195 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, slightly above a year ago but 4 percent below two years ago. California and Washington had more potatoes on hand than a year ago but the other Western States had less. Washington's stocks were up 4 percent and California gained 11 percent. Idaho had 1 percent fewer stocks, Oregon was down 2 percent. Colorado was down 3 percent and Montana dropped 4 percent. Fall Potato Production Up 3 Percent Production of fall potatoes for 1998 is forecast at 434 million cwt, up 3 percent from last year but 4 percent below 1996. Area harvested, at 1.22 million acres, is up 4 percent from last year but 2 percent below 1996. The average yield is forecast at 356 cwt per acre, down 3 cwt from last year and 8 cwt below two years ago. Planting started on time this year and most States had good early weather. A hotter than normal summer in Western States caused rougher and smaller potatoes and lower yields. Harvest in the West was delayed as long as possible to gain more size. Central and Eastern States had good size and yields. Compared with last month, an increase in production was indicated in Idaho, Washington, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Total potato production from all four seasons is estimated at 476 million cwt in 1998, up 2 percent from last year but 4 percent below the record large crop of 1996. Five Eastern States produced 29.5 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1998, down 5 percent from last year and 14 percent below two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 109,200 acres, down 7 percent from last year. The average yield of 270 cwt per acre gained 5 cwt from a year ago. Planting started early this year, but heavy June rains bogged down some fields. The rest of the summer was on the dry side, resulting in yields that were variable. Production in Maine slipped 6 percent from a year ago because fewer acres were planted, however average yields were up. Better yields in Pennsylvania pushed production up 5 percent. Production in Massachusetts was down 13 percent, Rhode Island lost 32 percent, and New York dropped 5 percent from last year. Eight Central States' production is forecast at a record 107.7 million cwt this year, a jump of 11 percent from last year and slightly above the previous record crop in 1996. Harvested area totaled 362,200 acres, a gain of 6 percent from last year. The average yield of 297 cwt per acre increased 14 cwt from last year, including record high yields in North Dakota (tied with 1994), Michigan, and Indiana. Heavy summer rains took out some fields in Minnesota and Ohio, but yields were generally high. Fewer acres for harvest and better yields placed Wisconsin's crop up 4 percent from last year. Good yields in Michigan at the end of the season resulted in a 3 percent larger potato crop. The 6 other Central States' productions were up, ranging from about 33 percent in North Dakota to 1 percent in South Dakota. Indiana's production was up 21 percent and Nebraska's potato crop was up 12 percent from last year. Minnesota increased 4 percent and Ohio's production improved 2 percent over last year. Ten Western States produced 297.2 million cwt in 1998, up 1 percent from last year but 5 percent below two years ago. Acreage harvested, at 748,500 acres, increased 4 percent, while the average yield of 397 cwt per acre was down 14 cwt from a year ago. Summer heat led to smaller sizes, lower solids, and rougher potatoes in the Western States. Higher acreage gave Washington a 6 percent larger crop even though yields were down. Good yields in Colorado increased production by 1 percent and Wyoming by more than 7 percent. Production is down in all other Western States primarily because of lower yields. Production in Idaho slid less than 1 percent from last year, Oregon is off 3 percent, and California dropped 12 percent. New Mexico and Utah production fell 15 and 20 percent, respectively. Nevada's production dropped 8 percent and Montana lost 4 percent from last year. Reliability of December 1 Production and Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 281 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent or approximately 7.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.5 percent or approximately12.6 million cwt. Also shown is the 10-year (1989-98) record of the differences between the December 1 production and stocks estimates and the final estimates. Using stocks again as an example, changes between the December 1 estimate and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 6.3 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the December 1 stocks estimates have been below the final estimate each year. Production estimates have been below the final 8 years and above 2 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : Ten Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% Confidence : : Number Estimate : : Level : Quantity : of Years :Percent:----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Below : Above : :Percent: Quant : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.6 4.5 12.47 6.30 0.65 14.50 10 0 Production : 1.7 3.0 12.88 5.30 0.05 13.46 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December Stocks, United States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 198,520 96.2 206,420 1989 : 201,400 99.7 202,050 1990 : 217,300 96.4 225,500 1991 : 240,660 99.4 242,070 1992 : 232,320 94.1 246,820 1993 : 240,370 96.3 249,710 1994 : 264,090 97.0 272,290 1995 : 252,030 98.3 256,310 1996 : 291,650 98.8 295,100 1997 : 274,250 98.4 278,630 1998 : 281,020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved, shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage and loss and home use accounted for the remaining 9.2 percent. Most seed for use the following crop year is on hand and remains part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1993-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1994 : 419,645 378,333 90.2 41,312 9.8 29,348 1995 : 403,009 368,946 91.5 34,063 8.5 30,580 1996 : 453,436 407,326 89.8 46,110 10.2 29,077 1997 : 422,789 386,699 91.5 36,090 8.5 29,562 1998 : 434,426 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 14, 1999. 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