Pot 1-2 (1-99) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. January Potato Stocks Down Slightly The 15 major potato States held 246 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1999, down slightly from last year and 6 percent below 1997. Storage accounted for 58 percent of 1998 fall production, down 2 percent from a year ago. This year's storage held more russets but fewer long whites than a year earlier. Disappearance, at 179 million cwt, is up 7 percent from last year including a 9 percent gain in processing. This report contains revised stocks and disposition estimates based on the 1992-97 final production estimates published on December 18, 1998. These production data are available in the Field Crops - Final Estimates 1992-97, Statistical Bulletin 947. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1989-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,585 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 424,897 282,300 246,220 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,180 1,710 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,460 38,895 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,020 15,985 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 73,170 91,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on January 1, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1997 : Crop of 1998 :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Jan % : Prod : Jan 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : Jan 1, : of : : 1998 : Prod : : 1998 : 1999 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- Percent : CA : 4,200 2,300 55 3,708 2,900 2,400 65 CO : 24,993 17,000 68 25,360 18,800 16,300 64 ID : 140,314 91,500 65 139,650 101,000 90,500 65 ME : 19,080 14,100 74 18,060 14,100 12,500 69 MI : 14,250 7,000 49 14,725 8,800 7,200 49 MN : 20,440 12,000 59 21,170 13,500 12,000 57 MT : 3,328 3,080 93 3,180 3,050 2,980 94 NE : 7,761 4,300 55 8,175 5,480 4,830 59 NY : 7,150 2,500 35 7,290 3,800 2,500 34 ND : 22,000 13,800 63 28,670 20,500 16,000 56 OH : 1,170 170 15 1,200 270 110 9 OR : 27,319 19,000 70 26,229 20,000 17,500 67 PA : 3,173 1,500 47 3,360 1,400 1,100 33 WA : 88,160 41,500 47 93,225 49,000 43,500 47 WI : 30,175 16,800 56 30,895 19,700 16,800 54 : 15 States : 413,513 246,550 60 424,897 282,300 246,220 58 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, January 1, 1998-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Round Whites : Long Whites : Russets State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan : Jan : Dec :Jan :1998 :1998 :1999:1998 :1998 :1999:1998 :1998 :1999:1998 :1998 :1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 5 4 4 2 6 6 93 90 90 ID : 8 4 4 92 96 96 ME : 4 4 4 49 48 46 8 11 9 39 37 41 MI : 1 1 1 74 81 84 25 18 15 MN : 11 13 12 10 7 5 3 3 3 76 77 80 NY : 5 5 5 93 93 93 2 2 2 ND : 12 14 12 14 23 22 6 6 5 68 57 61 OR : 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 4 96 93 93 PA : 3 2 2 97 98 98 WA : 1 1 1 1 4 6 4 95 92 95 WI : 2 4 2 18 24 20 80 72 78 : 11 St Avg : 2 3 2 10 11 10 5 4 4 83 82 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1995: 5,330 3,500 242 10 460 4,860 : 1996: 4,600 3,000 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 2,300 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 2,400 CO : : : 1995: 23,808 16,100 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 : 1996: 29,175 20,700 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 17,000 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 16,300 ID : : : 1995: 132,657 85,000 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 : 1996: 142,800 92,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 91,500 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 139,650 90,500 ME : : : 1995: 17,160 12,400 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 : 1996: 21,175 15,300 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 14,100 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 12,500 MI : : : 1995: 16,350 8,300 962 168 690 15,492 : 1996: 13,800 6,600 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 7,000 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,725 7,200 MN : : : 1995: 20,790 11,700 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 : 1996: 24,600 14,900 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 12,000 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 12,000 MT : : : 1995: 2,940 2,700 239 128 147 2,665 : 1996: 3,213 2,950 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 3,080 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 2,980 NE : : : 1995: 3,680 2,300 292 187 284 3,209 : 1996: 4,402 2,800 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 4,300 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 4,830 NY : : : 1995: 7,425 2,500 594 155 290 6,980 : 1996: 7,420 2,400 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 2,500 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 2,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, January 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1995-98 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Jan 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1995: 25,410 14,000 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 : 1996: 28,820 18,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 13,800 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 16,000 OH : : : 1995: 1,404 150 107 4 10 1,390 : 1996: 1,275 170 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 110 OR : : : 1995: 24,788 14,100 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 : 1996: 30,124 21,500 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 19,000 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 17,500 PA : : : 1995: 4,080 1,900 314 20 102 3,958 : 1996: 4,160 1,800 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 1,500 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 1,100 WA : : : 1995: 80,850 35,000 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 : 1996: 94,990 42,000 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 41,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 43,500 WI : : : 1995: 28,113 13,900 1,806 298 1,350 26,465 : 1996: 33,150 17,200 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 16,800 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 16,800 15 Sts : : : 1995: 394,785 223,550 26,093 5,534 27,733 361,518 : 1996: 443,704 261,320 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 246,550 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 424,897 246,220 23 Fall: : : 1995: 404,852 26,813 5,569 28,604 370,679 : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1995-97 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CO : : : 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 ID : : : 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 ME : : : 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 MI : : : 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 MN : : : 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 NY : : : 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 ND : : : 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 OR : : : 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 1 2 : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 PA : : : 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 WA : : : 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 WI : : : 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down Slightly January 1, 1999 potato stocks totaled 246 million cwt, down slightly from a year ago and 6 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 58 percent of fall production, down 2 percent from a year ago. Stocks by type were 2 percent reds, 10 percent round whites, 4 percent long white, and 84 percent russets, with more russets but fewer long whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to January 1 totaled 179 million cwt this season, up 7 percent from last year but 2 percent below the record high two years ago. December disappearance of 36.1 million cwt was record high for the month. Shrink and loss of 20.0 million cwt was up 12 percent from last year but 4 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1998 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 91.3 million cwt, up 9 percent from the 1997 crop but 3 percent below the 1996 crop. In December, processors claimed 18.1 cwt of potatoes, up 19 percent from last year and 15 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 16.1 million cwt of potatoes on January 1, 1999, down 11 percent from a year ago and 17 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were down 11 percent and Pennsylvania's stocks were off 27 percent. New York's storage was equal to last year. Central States accounted for 56.9 million cwt of potato stocks this January, 5 percent above 1998 but 5 percent below 1997. North Dakota's stocks were up 16 percent and Nebraska was up 12 percent. Stocks in Michigan increased 3 percent from last year. Minnesota and Wisconsin stocks were equal to a year ago. Ohio stocks were 35 percent below last year. Western States held 173 million cwt of potatoes in storage on January 1, 1999, down 1 percent from last year and 5 percent below 1997. Idaho stocks were down 1 percent from a year ago, while Oregon was off 8 percent. Colorado and Montana were down 4 and 3 percent. Washington was up 5 percent and California gained 4 percent from a year ago. Reliability of January 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 stocks estimate is 2.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 246 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.8 percent or approximately 6.89 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.8 percent or approximately 11.8 million cwt. The 10-year (1988-97) record of the differences between the January 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.56 million cwt, ranging from 0.01 million to 14.3 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the January 1 estimate has been below the final estimate each of the 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final January Stocks, United States, 1988-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 171,560 96.5 177,750 1989 : 173,400 99.9 173,550 1990 : 186,160 95.7 194,460 1991 : 210,935 100.0 211,005 1992 : 201,690 93.4 215,990 1993 : 209,270 96.3 217,300 1994 : 229,350 96.1 238,560 1995 : 218,970 98.0 223,550 1996 : 256,520 98.2 261,320 1997 : 240,850 97.7 246,550 1998 : 246,220 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand December 1st, but remains as part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1993-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 387,885 353,052 91.0 34,833 9.0 29,076 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 434,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 12, 1999. 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