HDR1012000110080314961500POTATO STOCKS Released March 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent Potato stocks totaled 152 million cwt on the first of March 1996, down 10 per- cent from a year ago and 1 percent below two years ago. Disappearance, at 239 million cwt, was a little short of last year's record high 240 million cwt but was 8 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss of 25.6 million cwt was 2 percent less than a year ago. Processor usage, at 121 million cwt, was up 3 percent for the season. February usage was up slightly from the same month last year. Pot 1-2 (3-96) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 409,009 271,890 237,560 201,870 168,770 128,825 87,500 1995 : 391,816 252,080 218,970 184,755 152,255 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 : ME 2/ : 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 1,685 2,200 2,540 : WA & OR - Other : 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 9,725 13,110 15,630 18,260 21,115 24,060 32,260 1995 : 12,360 15,330 18,415 21,485 : Total : 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 66,520 82,660 99,345 116,760 135,030 153,610 204,110 1995 : 71,005 87,225 103,335 120,835 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 1995-96 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1994 : Crop of 1995 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 1995 : Prod : : 1996 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Pct : CA : 5,600 2,700 48 5,330 2,100 39 CO : 25,795 11,300 44 23,808 11,200 47 ID : 138,801 68,000 49 131,274 61,500 47 ME : 18,375 7,700 42 17,160 8,500 50 MI : 12,180 3,800 31 16,500 5,000 30 MN : 17,755 8,000 45 20,790 8,700 42 MT : 3,200 2,730 85 2,940 2,600 88 NE : 3,996 1,420 36 3,680 2/1,355 NY : 7,805 2/920 7,695 1,400 18 ND : 28,200 10,400 37 25,410 9,200 36 OH : 1,348 2/ 1,404 2/ OR : 27,514 13,000 47 23,760 8,600 36 PA : 3,780 700 19 4,080 800 20 WA : 88,920 30,500 34 80,850 24,000 30 WI : 25,740 7,600 30 27,135 7,300 27 : Total 15 State : 409,009 168,770 41 391,816 152,255 39 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1996 crop. 1995 crop seed usage totaled 29.3 million cwt. 2/ Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations. Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent Potato stocks totaled 152 million cwt on March 1, 1996, down 10 percent from last year and 1 percent below two years ago. Stocks now are 39 percent of fall potato production in the 15 storage States, down two points from last year. Disappearance for the season was 239 million cwt, down slightly from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. Processors used 121 million cwt, up 3 percent. Disappearance from harvest through February totaled 239 million cwt of potatoes, down slightly from last year but 8 percent above two years ago. February disappearance of 32.5 million was down 2 percent from a year ago. Shrinkage and loss to date was 25.6 million cwt, down 2 percent from the 26.2 million cwt lost last year but 3 percent above 24.9 million cwt lost two years ago. Processor usage totaled 121 million cwt to March 1, 1996, up 3 percent from a year ago and 14 percent above two years ago. February processing of 17.5 million cwt of potatoes was up slightly from last year and 9 percent above 1994. Heavy processor use in Central States made up for slow-downs in the Northwest. Eastern States stored 10.7 million cwt of potatoes this year, up 16 percent from last year and 10 percent above 1994. Maine's stocks were up 10 percent and Pennsylvania's were up 14 percent. New York stocks rose more than half. Heavy U.S. imports from Canada resulted in slow movement from eastern storages. Central States accounted for 31.6 million cwt of potato stocks this March, up 1 percent from last year and 25 percent above two years ago. Michigan and Minnesota, with new areas measuring stocks, are up 32 and 9 percent, respectively. North Dakota's stocks were down 12 percent and Wisconsin's were off 4 percent from a year ago. Nebraska's stocks were down 6 percent. Western States held 110 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1996. This is down 14 percent from last year and 8 percent below two years ago. Idaho's stocks were off 10 percent and accounted for 56 percent of the Western total. Oregon's stocks were down 34 percent and Washington was 21 percent below a year earlier. Colorado's stocks were down 1 percent from last year and California's storage was off 22 percent. Montana's stocks, mainly seed, were down 5 percent. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimate The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 4.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 152 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.0 percent or approximately 6.1 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.9 percent or approximately 10.5 million cwt. The 10-year (1985-1994) record of the differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.7 million cwt, ranging from 0.4 million to 13.1 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March Stocks, United States, 1985-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 137,420 99.1 138,720 1986 : 124,820 97.0 128,720 1987 : 137,950 99.4 138,800 1988 : 118,960 95.6 124,485 1989 : 115,780 99.3 116,600 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 94.8 154,135 1994 : 163,305 96.8 168,770 1995 : 152,255 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 91.0 percent of the total fall production Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.0 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 12, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.