HDR1012000110081215951500POTATO STOCKS HDR2012000110081215951500PSTK HIGHLIGHTS Released December 15, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. Stocks Down 8 Percent, Production Down 5 Percent Production of fall potatoes is estimated at 402 million cwt in the 23 producing States in 1995, 5 percent below comparable totals in 1994 and 3 percent above 1993. December 1 stocks, at 252 million cwt in the 15 storage States, were down 8 percent on a comparable basis. Disappearance was up 2 percent, including a 7 percent gain in processor usage. Pot 1-2 (12-95) DR2012000110081215951500FALL POTS:PRD&STKS, 5 MJR STS,'86-95 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1986-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 409,009 271,890 237,560 201,870 168,770 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,086 252,030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110081215951500POTS:QUAN. USED FOR PRCSNG, 8 STS, Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1993-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 49,890 57,990 66,680 90,300 1995 : 27,310 : ME 2/ : 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,505 1,840 2,265 2,540 2,985 3,330 4,770 1995 : 1,335 : WA & OR - Other : 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,670 33,480 39,120 46,070 52,940 59,540 76,780 1995 : 30,000 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 9,725 13,110 15,630 18,260 21,115 24,060 32,260 1995 : 12,360 : Total : 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 66,520 82,660 99,345 116,760 135,030 153,610 204,110 1995 : 71,005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. HDR2012000110081215951500FAL POTS:PRD&STKS DEC 1,'94-95 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on December 1, 1994-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1994 : Crop of 1995 :--------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Dec 1, : of : Prod : Dec 1, : of : : 1994 : Prod : : 1995 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent : CA : 5,600 4,200 75 5,330 3,800 71 CO : 25,795 18,900 73 23,808 18,200 76 ID : 138,801 100,500 72 131,274 94,000 72 ME : 18,375 13,400 73 17,160 13,800 80 MI : 12,180 7,600 62 16,500 9,000 55 MN : 17,755 12,500 70 20,790 13,500 65 MT : 3,200 3,040 95 2,940 2,800 95 NE : 3,996 2,300 58 3,680 2,530 69 NY : 7,805 4,200 54 7,965 4,100 51 ND : 28,200 19,300 68 25,410 17,000 67 OH : 1,348 350 26 1,404 300 21 OR : 27,514 20,300 74 23,760 16,100 68 PA : 3,780 2,200 58 4,080 2,400 59 WA : 88,920 47,500 53 80,850 39,000 48 WI : 25,740 15,600 61 27,135 15,500 57 : Total 15 State : 409,009 271,890 66 392,086 252,030 64 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks in 1995 included 2.05 million cwt from former summer area of MI and MN. HDR2012000110081215951500FAL POTS:STKS TYPE AS % TL STKS Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, December 1, 1994-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Potato Types :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : Reds : Whites : Russets :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO : 4 6 96 94 ID : 5 10 95 90 ME : 1 3 78 69 21 28 MI : 7 2 84 78 9 20 MN : 16 14 16 16 68 70 NY : 5 5 93 93 2 2 ND : 12 12 45 38 43 50 OR : 1 1 3 99 96 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 2 2 5 5 93 93 WI : 2 3 20 27 78 70 : 11 State Avg. : 3 3 17 20 80 77 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110081215951500FALL POTS:AREA PLTD&HRVD BY ST, 93-95 Fall Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested by State, 1993-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 14.0 13.0 CO : 72.5 74.0 77.0 72.2 73.7 76.8 ID : 390.0 410.0 400.0 388.0 408.0 398.0 10 SW Co : 24.0 27.0 27.0 24.0 27.0 27.0 Other ID : 366.0 383.0 373.0 364.0 381.0 371.0 IN : 4.5 4.4 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.6 ME : 80.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 75.0 78.0 MA : 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.3 MI 1/ : 53.0 58.0 57.0 50.5 55.0 55.0 MN 1/ : 77.2 81.7 83.0 62.1 74.6 77.0 MT : 9.1 10.0 9.8 9.0 10.0 9.8 NE : 9.6 11.3 12.0 9.4 11.1 11.5 NV : 7.7 8.0 7.6 7.7 8.0 7.6 NM : 5.8 6.3 6.3 5.8 6.0 6.3 NY : 28.8 29.1 30.0 28.2 28.6 29.5 Long Is : 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.1 Upstate : 22.5 23.0 22.0 22.5 ND : 143.0 133.0 125.0 111.0 120.0 121.0 OH : 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.4 OR : 50.4 56.4 52.0 49.4 55.8 51.0 Malheur : 8.9 11.9 12.5 8.7 11.8 12.3 Other OR : 41.5 44.5 39.5 40.7 44.0 38.7 PA : 21.0 19.0 18.0 20.0 18.0 17.0 RI : 1.1 1.1 .9 1.1 1.1 .9 SD : 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.2 5.5 5.2 UT : 6.3 6.1 5.2 6.2 6.0 5.1 WA : 150.0 152.0 147.0 150.0 152.0 147.0 WI : 71.5 73.0 83.0 69.5 71.5 81.0 WY : 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 : Total : 1,210.1 1,241.8 1,226.1 1,150.0 1,208.3 1,205.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes acres in 1993 and 1994 formerly included in summer areas for comparative purposes. HDR2012000110081215951500FALL POTS:YLD&PRD BY ST, 93-95 Fall Potatoes: Yield and Production by State, 1993-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Cwt ---------- --------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 400 400 410 4,800 5,600 5,330 CO : 350 350 310 25,270 25,795 23,808 ID : 325 340 330 126,192 138,801 131,274 10 SW Co : 435 470 410 10,440 12,690 11,070 Other ID : 318 331 324 115,752 126,111 120,204 IN : 250 280 260 1,050 1,148 1,196 ME : 255 245 220 19,890 18,375 17,160 MA : 215 240 260 645 744 858 MI 1/ : 303 271 300 15,280 14,910 16,500 MN 1/ : 238 269 270 14,780 20,035 20,790 MT : 300 320 300 2,700 3,200 2,940 NE : 320 360 320 3,008 3,996 3,680 NV : 380 345 365 2,926 2,760 2,774 NM : 495 500 380 2,871 3,000 2,394 NY : 273 273 270 7,693 7,805 7,965 Long Is : 265 265 1,643 1,617 Upstate : 275 275 6,050 6,188 ND : 190 235 210 21,090 28,200 25,410 OH : 200 245 260 1,140 1,348 1,404 OR : 468 493 466 23,103 27,514 23,760 Malheur : 410 430 390 3,567 5,074 4,797 Other OR : 480 510 490 19,536 22,440 18,963 PA : 230 210 240 4,600 3,780 4,080 RI : 205 225 265 226 248 239 SD : 205 280 190 1,066 1,540 988 UT : 265 265 240 1,643 1,590 1,224 WA : 590 585 550 88,500 88,920 80,850 WI : 325 360 335 22,588 25,740 27,135 WY : 280 280 260 504 476 390 : Total : 340 352 334 391,565 425,525 402,149 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes production in 1993 and 1994 formerly included in summer areas for comparative purposes. HDR2012000110081215951500FALL POTS:HRVST LOSS OF POTS BY TYP, 11 MJR STS 1995 Potato Objective Yield Survey The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted potato objective yield surveys in the 11 major fall producing States in 1995. These 11 States account for 94 percent of the 1995 fall potato production. Sample plots were located in potato fields that were selected on a random basis using a scientifically designed sampling procedure. Field workers recorded counts and measurements from these fields just prior to and immediately after harvest. Sample data from the objective yield surveys presented in the following tables are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates. They are provided only to show current information about the crop and trends in potato production practices. Potatoes: Harvest Loss of Potatoes by Type, 11 Major States, 1994-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : and : Reds : Whites : Russets : All Types Year : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Cwt per Acre : CO 1994 : 15 15 1995 : 20 20 : ID 1994 : 18 31 31 1995 : 21 28 28 : ME 1994 : 11 25 15 1995 : 10 14 22 16 : MI 1994 : 17 20 18 1995 : 17 10 16 : MN 1994 : 22 20 29 25 1995 : 9 16 20 16 : NY 1994 : 12 12 1995 : 15 15 : ND 1994 : 30 26 22 25 1995 : 16 19 27 19 : OR 1994 : 20 15 17 1995 : 8 23 21 21 : PA 1994 : 13 13 1995 : 13 13 : WA 1994 : 27 19 19 1995 : 17 19 19 : WI 1994 : 14 18 16 1995 : 15 16 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Potatoes left in the field at time of harvest. Based on counts in potato fields selected for post-harvest samples. HDR2012000110081215951500FAL POTS:AVG NO.OF HILLS PER AC TYP Potatoes: Average Number of Hills per Acre by Type, 1994-95 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Reds : Whites : Russets State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- and : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. : Number : Avg No. Year : of : Hills : of : Hills : of : Hills : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre : Samples : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : CO 1994 : 2 15,488 31 13,081 1995 : 2 13,625 67 12,906 : ID 1994 : 23 15,428 248 12,286 1995 : 27 13,573 243 12,377 : ME 1994 : 2/ 2/ 119 13,604 38 9,704 1995 : 8 13,252 105 14,454 44 10,368 : MI 1994 : 4 12,188 64 12,143 26 11,126 1995 : 2/ 2/ 79 12,304 16 10,970 : MN 1994 : 30 10,096 33 11,189 39 13,134 1995 : 37 11,139 37 10,707 45 13,144 : NY 1994 : 2/ 2/ 136 13,338 2/ 2/ 1995 : 3 12,230 86 14,031 2/ 2/ : ND 1994 : 22 10,786 85 10,436 57 11,014 1995 : 37 10,234 100 10,363 80 11,184 : OR 1994 : 2/ 2/ 36 13,548 111 14,292 1995 : 2 16,739 58 13,335 90 14,313 : PA 1994 : 2/ 2/ 82 12,807 1995 : 3 11,002 49 13,426 : WA 1994 : 6 15,279 16 13,616 150 14,722 1995 : 3 15,811 21 14,101 121 14,465 : WI 1994 : 15 15,251 28 13,502 89 12,567 1995 : 10 13,805 34 13,069 82 12,520 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on row measurements and counts in potato field selected for objective yield samples. 2/ Insufficient sample size. HDR2012000110081215951500POTATO STOCKS NARRATIVE Potato Stocks Down 8 Percent The 15 major potato States held 252 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1995, including 2.05 million cwt of potatoes stored in areas of Michigan and Minnesota that were not counted last year. Comparable stocks (by subtracting 2.05 million cwt this year) are down 8 percent from a year earlier and 1 percent less than two years ago. Storage accounted for 64 percent of 1995 fall production compared with 66 percent in 1994. Stocks by type were 3 percent red, 20 percent white, and 77 percent russet, with more whites and fewer russets than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to December 1 was a record high 140 million cwt, up 2 percent from the same period in 1994. Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 18.3 million cwt, down 1 percent from the 18.6 million cwt lost in 1994 but 5 percent above the 17.5 million cwt lost from the 1993 crop. Processing is heavy, with 71.0 million cwt taken by fryers and dehydrators in eight major States so far this season. This is a gain of 7 percent over a year ago and 16 percent above 1993. Eastern States stored 20.3 million cwt of potatoes on December 1, 1995, a gain of 3 percent from last year but 17 percent below 1993. Pennsylvania's stocks were up 9 percent, Maine's were up 3 percent, while New York was off 2 percent. Central States accounted for 57.8 million cwt of potato stocks this December, including 2.05 million cwt coming from former "summer" areas. Comparable stocks are down 3 percent from 1994 but 18 percent above 1993. Michigan stocks increased 18 percent from a year ago, and Minnesota gained 8 percent, although 2.05 million cwt of their total increase came from former summer areas. The "fall" areas in the two States increased 2 percent. Nebraska's stocks were up 10 percent, but the other three Central States were down from last year. North Dakota's stocks dropped 12 percent, Wisconsin slipped 1 percent, and Ohio fell 14 percent. Western States held 174 million cwt of potatoes in storage on December 1, 1995, off 11 percent from a year ago and 4 percent below 1993. Oregon dropped 21 percent and Washington was off 18 percent from a year ago, while Idaho's stocks were down 6 percent. These three States cover 86 percent of Western stocks with a combined drop of 11 percent from last year. Colorado's stocks were down 4 percent and Montana held 8 percent fewer potatoes than a year ago. California's storage was down 10 percent. Fall Potato Production Down 5 Percent Production of fall potatoes in 1995 is estimated at 402 million cwt, the second largest fall potato crop produced in the United States, after last year's record large crop. Comparable percent change (with the addition of summer crops from Michigan and Minnesota) places this crop 5 percent below 1994 but 3 percent above 1993. Area harvested, at 1.21 million acres, is down slightly from last year. The average yield is estimated at 334 cwt per acre, down 18 cwt from last year and 6 cwt below two years ago. Planting and harvest were late in most States resulting in smaller crops than last year. Five Eastern States produced 30.3 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1995, down 2 percent from last year and 8 percent less than two years ago. Area for harvest was 128,700 acres, up 2 percent from last year. The average yield of 235 cwt per acre is off 11 cwt. The Maine crop fell 7 percent from a year ago, but New York gained 2 percent and Pennsylvania was up 8 percent. Massachusetts gained 15 percent and Rhode Island slipped 4 percent. Hot, dry weather during much of the growing season hurt yields but kept a mild blight situation in check. Central States production is forecast at 97.1 million cwt this year, up fractionally from comparable totals a year ago (including summer crops from Minnesota and Michigan) and 21 percent greater than the poor crops of 1993. Harvested area is estimated at 360,700 acres, a gain of 4 percent from last year. The average yield of 269 cwt per acre is 10 cwt below last year. Growing weather throughout the summer were favorable for healthy potato development across most of the region. Yields were generally good with Minnesota growers achieving a record high. Harvest brought additional rains causing some fields and parts of fields to go un-dug. Larger crops were grown this year in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Lower production was shown in North and South Dakota and Nebraska. Ten Western States produced 275 million cwt in 1995, down 8 percent from the last year and 1 percent below two years ago. Acreage for harvest at 716,100 acres, was down 3 percent, while the average yield of 384 cwt per acre dropped 21 cwt from a year ago. Idaho's production of 131 million cwt is the second largest on record, 5 percent below last year. Open fall weather allowed potatoes to put on extra weight in the latter part of the season. Production in Washington dropped 9 percent below the last two years as blight hurt yields in the southern Basin. Oregon's production slid 14 percent from last year but remained 3 percent above two years ago. Blight damage cut sharply into production potential of Idaho and Oregon's Treasure Valley. The late start and early frost reduced Colorado's potato crop 8 percent from their record high last year. Weather problems in California, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico contributed to smaller crops than a year ago. Nevada was the only Western State with a larger crop than a year ago. HDR2012000110081215951500RELIABILITY OF DEC 1 STK ESTIMATES Reliability of December 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 stocks estimate is 2.6 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 252 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent or approximately 6.6 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.6 percent or approximately 11.6 million cwt. Also shown is the 10-year 1985-94 record of the differences between the December 1 production and stocks estimate and the final estimates. Using stocks again as an example, changes between the December 1 estimate and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 5.9 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the December 1 stocks estimate has been below the final estimate each year. Production estimates have been below the final 8 years and above 2 years. Reliability of December 1 Fall Potato Estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root Mean : Ten Year Record of Difference : Square Error : Between Dec 1 and Final Estimate :------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Number Estimate : : 90% Confidence : Quantity : of Years :Percent: Level :----------------------------------------- : :-----------------: : : : Below : Above : :Percent: Quant : Avg : Small : Large : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Million Cwt --------- : Stocks : 2.6 4.6 11.59 5.89 .65 14.50 10 0 Production : 1.6 2.7 10.46 5.01 .05 13.46 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110081215951500PRELIMINARY & FINAL DEC STKD, US 85-95 Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final December Stocks, United States, 1985-95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 233,775 99.3 235,475 1986 : 204,180 97.5 209,435 1987 : 223,720 99.0 225,890 1988 : 198,520 96.2 206,420 1989 : 201,400 99.7 202,050 1990 : 217,300 96.4 225,500 1991 : 240,660 99.4 242,070 1992 : 232,320 94.1 246,820 1993 : 240,370 96.3 249,710 1994 : 264,090 97.1 271,890 1995 : 252,030 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. Note: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.4 percent of the total fall production Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.6 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. HDR2012000110081215951500POTS: PRD, SLD, NOT SLD&KEPT FOR SD,US '89-94 Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1989-94 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 352,507 320,033 90.8 32,474 9.2 28,061 1990 : 371,730 334,893 90.1 36,837 9.9 27,021 1991 : 379,525 341,209 89.9 38,316 10.1 28,275 1992 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1993 : 420,515 379,047 90.1 41,468 9.9 29,274 1994 : 402,149 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDR2012000110081215951500NXT RLSE DATE & EEO STMNT The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 12, 1996. 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