Pot 1-2 (5-04) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 14, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Potato Stocks call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 2 Percent The 15 major potato States held 84.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2004, up 2 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 21 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, 1 percentage point above last year. Disappearance of 319 million cwt of potatoes is down 2 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 27.0 million cwt so far this season, is up 5 percent from last year and 8 percent above the same date in 2002. Processors in the 9 major States used 154 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 3 percent from a year ago but 4 percent above two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 34.6 million cwt of the total processing, down 4 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1994-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 2/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 2/ : 407,085 264,585 231,690 199,320 165,310 125,870 82,940 45,980 2003 : 403,946 267,860 233,880 200,530 166,690 126,410 84,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. 2/ Production revised in Field Crops, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication released March 17, 2004. Stocks will be revised in Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication tentatively scheduled for release August 20, 2004. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 43,640 49,570 56,380 : ME 2/ : 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 : 1,590 2,095 2,725 3,415 4,105 4,760 : WA & OR-Oth : 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 3/ : 32,670 38,520 43,610 51,210 58,500 64,160 : Other Sts 4/ : 2001 : 13,170 14,925 19,000 22,115 24,655 27,815 30,460 37,740 2002 : 12,190 14,865 17,865 20,740 23,580 26,000 29,075 36,705 2003 : 12,570 15,410 18,760 21,885 25,055 28,585 : Total : 2001 : 65,405 80,005 96,270 114,585 131,620 148,100 166,575 195,505 2002 : 76,480 91,930 106,600 125,165 143,035 159,365 177,740 209,040 2003 3/ : 71,140 86,755 101,355 120,150 137,230 153,885 : Dehydrated 5/: 2001 6/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,670 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,910 36,105 40,455 48,943 2003 : 14,250 18,370 22,050 26,090 30,290 34,630 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ April revised. 4/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002 and 2003. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 6/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on May 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2002 : Crop of 2003 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : May 1, : of : Prod : May 1, : of : : 2003 2/ : Prod : : 2004 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA 3/ : 4,316 1,000 23 3,444 1,200 35 CO : 27,885 5,800 21 23,652 3,600 15 ID : 133,385 34,500 26 123,180 33,500 27 ME : 16,960 3,900 23 17,030 4,100 24 MI : 13,878 1,000 7 15,015 1,600 11 MN 3/ : 18,810 4,300 23 22,330 5,500 25 MT : 3,224 400 12 3,339 500 15 NE : 8,611 9,860 NY : 5,500 6,510 450 7 ND : 23,460 5,500 23 27,440 8,300 30 OH 3/ : 902 1,290 OR : 24,936 5,000 20 20,991 5,500 26 PA 3/ : 2,128 3,915 100 3 WA 3/ : 92,340 16,500 18 93,150 15,000 16 WI 3/ : 30,750 3,700 12 32,800 3,800 12 : Other Sts : 1,340 1,650 : 15 Sts 3/ : 407,085 82,940 20 403,946 84,800 21 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2003 totaled 28.3 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts". 3/ 2002 production revised in Field Crops, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication released March 17, 2004. Stocks will be revised in Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication tentatively scheduled for release August 20, 2004. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1998-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 1/ : 467,529 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 1/ : 393,631 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 28,639 2002 1/ : 413,581 379,491 91.6 34,826 8.4 28,299 2003 : 411,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production revised in Field Crops, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication released March 17, 2004. Disposition will be revised in Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication tentatively scheduled for release August 20, 2004. Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production: May 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : :2000 : 3,741 800 58 11 300 3,430 :2001 2/: 1,513 223 3 128 1,293 :2002 2/: 4,316 1,000 198 16 400 3,848 :2003 : 3,444 1,200 CO : : :2000 : 27,972 7,400 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 :2001 : 21,357 5,100 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 :2002 : 27,885 5,800 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 :2003 : 23,652 3,600 ID : : :2000 : 152,320 47,000 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 :2001 : 120,200 32,500 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 :2002 : 133,385 34,500 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 :2003 : 123,180 33,500 ME : : :2000 : 17,920 4,000 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 :2001 : 16,430 3,300 1,344 301 849 15,280 :2002 : 16,960 3,900 1,386 310 790 15,860 :2003 : 17,030 4,100 MI : : :2000 : 14,963 700 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 :2001 : 13,950 400 1,181 245 945 12,760 :2002 : 13,878 1,000 1,123 205 1,400 12,273 :2003 : 15,015 1,600 MN : : :2000 : 21,240 5,800 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 :2001 : 18,425 4,300 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 :2002 2/: 18,810 4,300 1,098 130 1,400 17,170 :2003 : 22,330 5,500 MT : : :2000 : 3,503 750 211 133 732 2,638 :2001 : 3,296 450 263 152 188 2,956 :2002 : 3,224 400 254 145 142 2,937 :2003 : 3,339 500 NE : : :2000 : 10,127 542 182 730 9,215 :2001 : 8,400 570 153 720 7,527 :2002 : 8,611 611 149 612 7,850 :2003 : 9,860 NY : : :2000 : 5,964 517 108 406 5,450 :2001 : 5,942 495 100 502 5,340 :2002 : 5,500 488 100 350 5,050 :2003 : 6,510 450 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, May 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State : Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : : Year :Production:May 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : :2000 : 26,950 6,800 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 :2001 : 26,400 6,900 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 :2002 : 23,460 5,500 2,242 450 2,650 20,360 :2003 : 27,440 8,300 OH : : :2000 : 1,134 102 2 35 1,097 :2001 : 1,097 90 3 36 1,058 :2002 2/: 902 89 2 12 889 :2003 : 1,290 OR : : :2000 : 30,683 10,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 :2001 : 20,730 6,500 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 :2002 : 24,936 5,000 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 :2003 : 20,991 5,500 PA : : :2000 : 3,510 252 44 165 3,301 :2001 2/: 2,938 285 59 120 2,994 :2002 2/: 2,128 276 38 78 2,474 :2003 : 3,915 100 WA : : :2000 : 105,000 21,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 :2001 : 94,400 18,000 3,960 300 7,000 87,100 :2002 2/: 92,340 16,500 3,960 300 6,500 85,600 :2003 : 93,150 15,000 WI : : :2000 : 33,800 3,300 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 :2001 : 31,955 3,000 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 :2002 2/: 30,750 3,700 1,848 265 1,775 29,085 :2003 : 32,800 3,800 Other Sts : : :2000 : 1,110 :2001 : 750 :2002 : 1,340 :2003 : 1,650 15 Sts : : :2000 : 458,827 109,160 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 :2001 2/: 387,033 81,200 24,726 4,974 29,302 352,903 :2002 2/: 407,085 82,940 24,238 5,276 28,990 373,555 :2003 : 403,946 84,800 Fall Sts : : :2000 2/: 467,529 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 :2001 2/: 393,631 25,143 5,039 29,757 358,954 :2002 2/: 413,581 24,681 5,401 29,425 379,491 :2003 : 411,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Missing stocks combined into "Other Sts" to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 2/ Production revised in Field Crops, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication released March 17, 2004. Disposition will be revised in Potatoes and Sweet Potatoes, Final Estimates 1997 - 2002 publication tentatively scheduled for release August 20, 2004. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2000-2002 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 CO : : : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 ID : : : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 ME : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 MI : : : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 MN : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 9 12 8 6 NY : : : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 ND : : : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 OR : : : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 PA : : : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 WA : : : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 WI : : : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- May Potato Stocks Up 2 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 84.8 million cwt of potatoes in storage May 1, 2004, up 2 percent from last year and 4 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 21 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, up 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 319 million cwt of potatoes is down 2 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 27.0 million cwt so far this season, is up 5 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. This disappearance and loss includes unmarketable Maine potatoes disposed of through the Natural Resources Conservation Service's Environmental Quality Incentives Program. Processors used 154 million cwt of 2003 crop potatoes so far this season, down 3 percent from a year ago but 4 percent above two years ago. April usage of 16.7 million cwt is 2 percent above last year and up 1 percent from two years ago. Dehydrators used 34.6 million cwt to date, down 4 percent from last year. Western States held 59.3 million cwt of potatoes in storage on May 1, down 6 percent from last year and 5 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are down 3 percent from last year, Washington decreased 9 percent, and Colorado's storages held 38 percent less. Potato sheds in Oregon stored 10 percent more than last year, California increased 20 percent, and Montan's storages gained 25 percent. Central States accounted for 20.9 million cwt of potato stocks on May 1, up 35 percent from last year and 38 percent above two years ago. North Dakota potato sheds stored 51 percent more than last year, Minnesota stocks increased 28 percent, Wisconsin went up 3 percent, and Michigan gained 60 percent. Nebraska and Ohio together are up 65 percent. Eastern States stored 4.65 million cwt of potatoes on May 1, up 10 percent from last year and 34 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks are up 5 percent from last year, while New York and Pennsylvania combined increased 62 percent. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2000-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.1 20.3 22.2 24.0 25.7 27.2 29.0 2003 : 14.9 17.4 20.6 22.6 25.0 27.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of May 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the May 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 stocks estimate is 6.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 84.8 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.8 percent or approximately 5.8 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.7 percent or approximately 9.9 million cwt. The 10-year (1993-2002) record of differences between the May 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 3.7 million cwt, ranging from 9.9 million cwt above the final to 6.1 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the May 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 7 years and above 3 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final May 1 Stocks, United States, 1993-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 68,060 93.4 72,860 1994 : 81,495 93.0 87,600 1995 : 72,210 95.2 75,870 1996 : 100,780 97.6 103,210 1997 : 87,113 93.8 92,840 1998 : 87,640 99.7 87,895 1999 : 85,670 98.6 86,915 2000 : 111,425 102.1 109,160 2001 : 91,140 112.2 81,200 2002 : 83,180 100.3 82,940 2003 : 84,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next Potato Stocks report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 2004. 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