Pot 1-2 (3-04) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 15, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Cathy Scherrer at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent The 15 major potato States held 167 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 41 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, unchanged from last year. Disappearance of 237 million cwt of potatoes is down 2 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 22.6 million cwt so far this season, is up 2 percent from last year and 4 percent above the same date in 2002. Processors in the 9 major States used 120 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 4 percent from a year ago but 5 percent above two years ago. Dehydrating usage accounts for 26.1 million cwt of the total processing, down 7 percent from last year. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1994-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 275,100 239,910 207,150 169,620 128,410 86,915 47,220 2000 : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,240 2001 : 387,179 258,750 224,680 192,190 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 : 407,821 264,585 231,690 199,320 165,310 125,870 82,940 45,980 2003 : 403,946 267,860 233,880 200,530 166,690 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2001 : 20,940 27,330 33,620 40,860 47,710 54,150 61,200 73,390 2002 : 28,380 34,860 41,200 48,600 56,240 63,840 71,280 85,390 2003 : 24,310 30,730 36,260 43,640 : ME 2/ : 2001 : 1,975 2,440 3,110 3,700 4,285 4,775 5,515 7,195 2002 : 2,230 2,715 3,345 3,905 4,505 5,225 5,905 7,835 2003 : 1,590 2,095 2,725 3,415 : WA & OR-Oth : 2001 : 29,320 35,310 40,540 47,910 54,970 61,360 69,400 77,180 2002 : 33,680 39,490 44,190 51,920 58,710 64,300 71,480 79,110 2003 3/ : 32,670 38,520 43,610 51,210 : Other Sts 4/ : 2001 : 13,170 14,925 19,000 22,115 24,655 27,815 30,460 37,740 2002 : 12,190 14,865 17,865 20,740 23,580 26,000 29,075 36,705 2003 : 12,570 15,410 18,760 21,890 : Total : 2001 : 65,405 80,005 96,270 114,585 131,620 148,100 166,575 195,505 2002 : 76,480 91,930 106,600 125,165 143,035 159,365 177,740 209,040 2003 3/ : 71,140 86,755 101,355 120,155 : Dehydrated 5/: 2001 6/ : 38,581 2002 : 15,670 19,660 23,710 27,950 31,910 36,105 40,455 48,943 2003 : 14,250 18,370 22,050 26,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, CO, MI, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ February revised. 4/ MN, NV, ND, SD, and WI in 2001. CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI in 2002 and 2003. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Included in above totals. Includes CO, ID, NV, ND, OR, WA, and WI. 6/ No monthly data available. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2002 : Crop of 2003 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 2003 : Prod : : 2004 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,264 2,000 47 3,444 1,800 52 CO : 27,885 13,100 47 23,652 10,300 44 ID : 133,385 62,000 46 123,180 58,000 47 ME : 16,960 8,000 47 17,030 8,900 52 MI : 13,878 4,500 32 15,015 4,700 31 MN : 18,700 7,400 40 22,330 9,600 43 MT : 3,224 2,800 87 3,339 2,900 87 NE 2/ : 8,611 9,860 NY : 5,500 600 11 6,510 1,500 23 ND : 23,460 10,000 43 27,440 13,000 47 OH 2/ : 903 1,290 OR : 24,936 9,900 40 20,991 11,000 52 PA : 2,590 600 23 3,915 700 18 WA : 92,400 30,500 33 93,150 29,500 32 WI : 31,125 11,000 35 32,800 11,000 34 : Other Sts : 2,910 3,790 : 15 Sts : 407,821 165,310 41 403,946 166,690 41 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2003 totaled 28.3 million cwt. 2/ Combined into "Other States". NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes that are not yet moved, and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.8 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.2 percent. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1998-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,217 1999 : 429,847 390,210 90.8 39,637 9.2 29,709 2000 : 467,504 420,279 89.9 47,225 10.1 27,145 2001 : 393,750 358,954 91.2 34,796 8.8 28,639 2002 : 414,317 379,491 91.6 34,826 8.4 28,299 2003 : 411,386 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :-------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 2000: 3,741 1,300 58 11 300 3,430 : 2001: 1,424 600 223 3 128 1,293 : 2002: 4,264 2,000 198 16 400 3,848 : 2003: 3,444 1,800 CO : : : 2000: 27,972 13,000 1,771 1,485 3,847 22,640 : 2001: 21,357 9,400 1,790 1,465 1,887 18,005 : 2002: 27,885 13,100 1,724 1,460 2,845 23,580 : 2003: 23,652 10,300 ID : : : 2000: 152,320 76,500 8,140 1,190 13,718 137,412 : 2001: 120,200 58,000 8,250 1,230 8,261 110,709 : 2002: 133,385 62,000 7,920 1,440 8,650 123,295 : 2003: 123,180 58,000 ME : : : 2000: 17,920 8,700 1,302 315 1,490 16,115 : 2001: 16,430 7,100 1,344 301 849 15,280 : 2002: 16,960 8,000 1,386 310 790 15,860 : 2003: 17,030 8,900 MI : : : 2000: 14,963 3,400 1,135 250 1,700 13,013 : 2001: 13,950 3,200 1,181 245 945 12,760 : 2002: 13,878 4,500 1,123 205 1,400 12,273 : 2003: 15,015 4,700 MN : : : 2000: 21,240 10,100 1,140 130 1,700 19,410 : 2001: 18,425 7,900 1,159 190 1,700 16,535 : 2002: 18,700 7,400 1,098 130 1,400 17,170 : 2003: 22,330 9,600 MT : : : 2000: 3,503 2,800 211 133 732 2,638 : 2001: 3,296 2,460 263 152 188 2,956 : 2002: 3,224 2,800 254 145 142 2,937 : 2003: 3,339 2,900 NE 1/ : : : 2000: 10,127 542 182 730 9,215 : 2001: 8,400 570 153 720 7,527 : 2002: 8,611 611 149 612 7,850 : 2003: 9,860 NY : : : 2000: 5,964 1,000 517 108 406 5,450 : 2001: 5,942 600 495 100 502 5,340 : 2002: 5,500 600 488 100 350 5,050 : 2003: 6,510 1,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 2000-2003 Crop Years (continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :------------------------------ State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production : Mar 1 : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 2000: 26,950 11,500 2,035 295 3,235 23,420 : 2001: 26,400 12,300 2,301 320 3,960 22,120 : 2002: 23,460 10,000 2,242 450 2,650 20,360 : 2003: 27,440 13,000 OH 1/ : : : 2000: 1,134 102 2 35 1,097 : 2001: 1,097 90 3 36 1,058 : 2002: 903 89 2 12 889 : 2003: 1,290 OR : : : 2000: 30,683 17,000 957 140 1,915 28,628 : 2001: 20,730 11,500 1,200 175 1,059 19,496 : 2002: 24,936 9,900 1,021 266 1,386 23,284 : 2003: 20,991 11,000 PA : : : 2000: 3,510 830 252 44 165 3,301 : 2001: 3,173 600 285 59 120 2,994 : 2002: 2,590 600 276 38 78 2,474 : 2003: 3,915 700 WA : : : 2000: 105,000 37,500 3,960 300 9,500 95,200 : 2001: 94,400 32,500 3,960 300 7,000 87,100 : 2002: 92,400 30,500 3,960 300 6,500 85,600 : 2003: 93,150 29,500 WI : : : 2000: 33,800 10,500 1,700 264 1,949 31,587 : 2001: 31,955 10,000 1,615 278 1,947 29,730 : 2002: 31,125 11,000 1,848 265 1,775 29,085 : 2003: 32,800 11,000 Other Sts : : : 2000: 3,540 : 2001: 2,430 : 2002: 2,910 : 2003: 3,790 15 Sts : : : 2000: 458,827 197,670 23,822 4,849 41,422 412,556 : 2001: 387,179 158,590 24,726 4,974 29,302 352,903 : 2002: 407,821 165,310 24,238 5,276 28,990 373,555 : 2003: 403,946 166,690 Fall Sts : : : 2000: 467,504 24,249 4,968 42,257 420,279 : 2001: 393,750 25,143 5,039 29,757 358,954 : 2002: 414,317 24,681 5,401 29,425 379,491 : 2003: 411,386 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 2000-2002 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 2000 : 9 11 13 10 9 11 7 11 9 10 : 2001 : 15 11 17 17 22 18 : 2002 : 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 8 9 7 CO : : : 2000 : 5 8 10 10 11 8 11 11 12 9 5 : 2001 : 5 10 11 12 12 9 11 10 11 7 2 : 2002 : 4 9 10 10 11 9 11 11 10 7 8 ID : : : 2000 : 5 9 10 9 6 7 6 9 9 13 8 9 : 2001 : 3 12 13 8 6 7 9 10 10 10 6 6 : 2002 : 4 8 11 10 7 8 8 10 11 10 7 6 ME : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 9 9 12 12 15 10 5 3 : 2001 : 1 9 10 9 9 12 11 11 12 8 5 3 : 2002 : 2 7 11 9 8 10 9 10 15 10 5 4 MI : : : 2000 : 3 7 8 12 12 12 11 12 11 7 4 1 : 2001 : 3 7 8 12 11 12 13 11 11 8 3 1 : 2002 : 4 7 11 12 13 8 6 8 12 13 6 MN : : : 2000 : 2 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 12 18 : 2001 : 10 9 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 : 2002 : 9 9 9 7 8 7 9 7 9 12 8 6 NY : : : 2000 : 2 26 18 11 12 8 8 10 5 : 2001 : 4 20 18 17 15 9 7 6 4 : 2002 : 8 17 16 14 11 14 10 7 3 ND : : : 2000 : 4 21 11 10 5 8 5 9 11 8 8 : 2001 : 18 10 12 7 8 7 7 14 11 6 : 2002 : 2 22 10 9 6 9 4 8 10 13 5 2 OR : : : 2000 : 3 9 12 21 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 6 6 : 2001 : 7 13 21 8 6 5 7 7 8 8 7 3 : 2002 : 11 9 21 9 9 6 9 8 6 7 3 2 PA : : : 2000 : 14 13 12 12 13 11 9 7 6 2 1 : 2001 : 17 16 15 12 12 10 8 7 2 1 : 2002 : 18 14 17 14 10 9 6 5 4 3 WA : : : 2000 : 16 14 25 7 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 : 2001 : 11 13 25 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 5 1 : 2002 : 17 12 19 9 5 5 7 6 6 7 6 1 WI : : : 2000 : 1 7 15 14 11 8 8 9 10 10 5 2 : 2001 : 1 6 13 14 12 10 9 8 10 11 5 1 : 2002 : 1 7 12 12 12 9 9 8 12 10 6 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- March Potato Stocks Up 1 Percent from Last Year The 15 major potato States held 167 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2004, up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent above 2002. Potatoes in storage account for 41 percent of the 2003 fall storage States' production, unchanged from a year ago. Disappearance of 237 million cwt from the start of harvest to March 1, is down 2 percent from the same period last year but 4 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss, at 22.6 million cwt, is up 2 percent from last year and 4 percent above two years ago. Processors used 120 million cwt of 2003 crop potatoes so far this season, down 4 percent from a year ago but 5 percent above two years ago. February usage of 18.8 million cwt is 1 percent above last year and 3 percent above two years ago. Dehydrators used 26.1 million cwt to date, down 7 percent from last year. Western States held 114 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, down 6 percent from last year and 1 percent below two years ago. Idaho's potato stocks are down 6 percent from last year, Washington decreased 3 percent, Colorado's storages held 21 percent less, and California lost 10 percent. Oregon's sheds stored 11 percent more than last year and Montana increased 4 percent. Central States accounted for 42.1 million cwt of potato stocks on March 1, up 18 percent from last year and 17 percent above two years ago. Both North Dakota and Minnesota stocks increased 30 percent from last year's level, while Michigan gained 4 percent. Nebraska and Ohio combined are up 30 percent, while Wisconsin's storages hold the same amount as last year at this time. Eastern States stored 11.1 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, up 21 percent from last year and 34 percent above two years ago. Maine's stocks are up 11 percent, New York's gained 150 percent, and Pennsylvania stocks increased 17 percent. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 2000-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 2000 : 18.7 21.3 26.3 29.2 33.1 36.0 38.4 41.4 2001 : 14.7 17.3 19.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 26.7 29.3 2002 : 15.5 18.1 20.3 22.2 24.0 25.7 27.2 29.0 2003 : 14.9 17.4 20.6 22.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 167 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent or approximately 6.0 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.2 percent or approximately 10.3 million cwt. The 10-year (1993-2002) record of differences between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.0 million cwt, ranging from 9.3 million cwt above the final to 7.4 million cwt below the final. During the 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 6 years and above 4 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, 1993-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1993 : 146,080 95.2 153,435 1994 : 163,305 96.3 169,570 1995 : 152,255 97.6 156,020 1996 : 184,565 97.5 189,210 1997 : 170,325 96.8 175,870 1998 : 174,100 100.3 173,650 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670 2001 : 167,870 105.9 158,590 2002 : 163,900 99.1 165,310 2003 : 166,690 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 14, 2004. 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