HDR1012000110080214951500POTATO STOCKS HDR2012000110080214951500PSTK HIGHLIGHTS Released February 14, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Potato Stocks 5 Percent Above Last Year February 1, 1995, potato stocks totaled 196 million cwt, up 5 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent above two years ago. Disappearance was a record high 204 million cwt, up 8 percent from a year ago and 11 percent above two years ago. Processing accounted for 98.3 million cwt through January, 9 percent more than last year and 16 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss of 23.7 million cwt was up 5 percent from last year. For information call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. Pot 1-2 (2-95) HDR2012000110080214951500FALL POTATOES: PROD&STKS, 15 MAJ STS, '85-94 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1985-94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt : 1985 : 343,984 235,475 202,800 171,510 138,720 104,540 65,380 1986 : 307,928 209,435 180,915 154,545 128,720 95,090 59,790 1987 : 335,607 225,890 196,760 167,325 138,800 105,905 70,030 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 400,385 263,630 229,350 196,005 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HDR2012000110080214951500POTATOES: QUNTITY USED PRCSNG, 8 STS '92-94 Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, Eight States, 1992-94 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt ID & OR-Malheur Co: 1992 : 22,180 29,080 35,710 42,800 50,090 57,090 80,570 1993 : 24,090 30,540 37,150 44,720 53,070 61,440 85,780 1994 : 26,620 34,230 42,330 : ME 2/ : 1992 : 1,195 1,630 2,205 2,720 3,390 4,020 5,055 1993 : 1,350 1,720 2,210 2,505 2,890 3,275 4,555 1994 : 1,510 1,840 2,275 : WA & OR-Other : 1992 : 26,840 31,550 35,950 41,670 46,530 51,630 63,510 1993 : 28,260 33,350 39,010 45,020 51,290 57,180 70,690 1994 : 28,690 33,500 39,120 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1992 : 7,140 9,220 11,265 13,305 15,550 17,555 25,070 1993 : 7,605 9,515 11,605 13,720 16,080 18,705 25,690 1994 : 8,790 12,045 14,605 : Total : 1992 : 57,355 71,480 85,130 100,495 115,560 130,295 174,205 1993 : 61,305 75,125 89,975 105,965 123,330 140,600 186,715 1994 : 65,610 81,615 98,330 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the state in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. HDR2012000110080214951500FALL POTATOES: PROD&STKS ON FEB 1, '94-95 Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on February 1, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Crop of 1993 : Crop of 1994 :-------------------------------------------------------------- : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % State : : Feb 1, : of : : Feb 1, : of : Prod : 1994 : Prod : Prod : 1995 : Prod ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent --- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent : CA : 4,800 2,700 56 4,400 2,700 61 CO : 25,270 13,300 53 25,795 13,700 53 ID : 126,192 75,500 60 134,340 73,500 55 ME : 19,890 10,300 52 17,250 9,400 54 MI : 11,780 4,400 37 12,180 4,600 38 MN : 12,650 6,100 48 17,755 9,600 54 MT : 2,700 2,440 90 3,200 2,860 89 NE : 3,008 1,370 46 3,888 1,690 43 NY : Long Island : 1,643 200 12 1,617 300 19 Upstate : 6,050 1,000 17 6,188 1,800 29 ND : 21,090 10,200 48 28,200 12,500 44 OH : 1,140 80 7 1,348 155 11 OR : 23,103 14,900 64 25,784 15,400 60 PA : 4,600 1,400 30 3,780 1,100 29 WA : 88,500 32,000 36 88,920 37,500 42 WI : 22,588 10,200 45 25,740 9,200 36 : Total 15 States: 375,004 186,090 50 400,385 196,005 49 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HDR2012000110080214951500FALL POTATOES: PROD&STKS ON FEB 1, '94-95 Fall Potatoes: Stocks by Type as Percent of Total Stocks, 11 Major States, February 1, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Potato Types :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : Reds : Whites : Russets :-------------------------------------------------------------- : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent : CO : 7 4 93 96 ID : 7 5 93 95 ME : 1 80 81 20 18 MI : 75 75 25 25 MN : 8 12 15 16 77 72 NY : 7 5 91 93 2 2 ND : 17 12 52 44 31 44 OR : 2 1 98 99 PA : 3 3 97 97 WA : 100 100 WI : 1 2 10 17 89 81 : 11 State Avg. : 2 2 16 14 82 84 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ HDR2012000110080214951500PSTKS NARRATIVE Potato Stocks Up 5 Percent The 15 major potato States held 196 million cwt of potatoes on February 1, 1995, up 5 percent from last year and 6 percent above two years ago. Storage accounted for 49 percent of fall production this year, 1 percent less than last year. Stocks by type were 2 percent red, 14 percent white, and 84 percent russet, with more russets and less whites than a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest through January was a record high 204 million cwt, 8 percent more than last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Shrink and loss to date was estimated at 23.7 million cwt, up 5 percent from the 22.7 million cwt lost last year and 3 percent above the 23.0 million cwt lost from the 1992 crop. Processor usage totaled 98.3 million cwt to February 1, 1995, up 9 percent from a year ago and 16 percent above two years ago. January processing of 16.7 million cwt of potatoes was up 13 percent from last year and 22 percent above 1993. Eastern States stored 12.6 million cwt of potatoes this year, down 2 percent from last year and 26 percent below 1993. Maine's stocks were down 9 percent and Pennsylvania's were off 21 percent. New York's stocks were up 75 percent from last year but 6 percent below two years ago. Central States accounted for 37.7 million cwt of potato stocks this February, up 17 percent from last year but 1 percent below two years ago. North Dakota and Nebraska potato stocks were both up 23 percent and Minnesota stored 57 percent more than last year. Michigan's cellars stored 5 percent more potatoes than a year ago, while the small amount left in Ohio was nearly doubled that of a year ago. Wisconsin's stocks were down 10 percent from last year. Western States held 146 million cwt of potatoes in storage on February 1, 1995. This is up 3 percent from last year and 12 percent above two years ago. Idaho's stocks were off 3 percent and accounted for 50 percent of the Western total. Oregon's stocks were up 3 percent and Washington gained 17 percent. Colorado's stocks were up 3 percent from last year and California's storage was the same as a year ago. Montana's stocks, mainly seed, were up 17 percent. HDR2012000110080214951500RELIABILITY OF FEB 1 STKS ESTIMATES Reliability of February 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 stocks estimate is 3.2 percent. This means that the chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 196 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.2 percent or approximately 6.3 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent or approximately 11.0 million cwt. The 10-year (1984-93) record of the differences between the February 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 4.5 million cwt, ranging from 0.2 million to 14.2 million cwt. During the 10-year period, the February 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. HDR2012000110080214951500FALL PSTKS: PRELM&FNL FEB STKS, US '84-94 Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final February Stocks, United States, 1984-94 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1984 : 142,990 98.8 144,760 1985 : 169,810 99.0 171,510 1986 : 150,640 97.5 154,545 1987 : 167,110 99.9 167,325 1988 : 144,625 95.7 151,050 1989 : 143,150 99.2 144,290 1990 : 154,310 94.8 162,850 1991 : 178,965 100.3 178,515 1992 : 170,385 92.3 184,560 1993 : 178,070 95.7 186,090 1994 : 196,005 --- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ As reported in the September "Potatoes" annual report. NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.6 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaininq 9.4 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand, but remains as part of stocks until planted. HDR2012000110080214951500NXT RLSE DATE&EEO STATEMENT The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on March 14, 1995. *********************** The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. 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