Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 13, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent The 15 major potato States held 170 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 1998, down 10 percent from a year earlier but 9 percent above 1996. Storage accounted for 42 percent of 1997 fall production in the storage States, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 237 million cwt was down 7 percent from last year, including a 9 percent drop in processing. Pot 1-2 (3-98) Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1988-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1988 : 305,623 206,420 177,750 151,050 124,485 92,585 59,355 1989 : 316,097 202,050 173,550 144,290 116,600 84,320 50,675 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 375,004 249,710 217,800 186,090 154,135 115,970 73,860 1994 : 408,139 272,290 237,960 201,870 168,970 128,825 87,500 1995 : 392,942 256,310 223,150 188,960 155,720 116,255 76,170 1996 : 442,752 295,100 262,120 227,080 189,410 147,885 102,810 1997 : 407,164 274,250 240,850 205,850 170,325 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Malheur Co : 1995 : 27,310 35,040 43,260 51,530 59,060 66,690 89,250 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 : ME 2/ : 1995 : 1,455 1,850 2,430 2,850 3,435 3,965 5,725 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,245 1,655 2,285 2,725 : WA & OR - Other : 1995 : 30,000 35,170 39,460 45,280 51,730 57,360 70,250 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 : Oth Sts 3/ : 1995 : 12,650 15,630 18,815 21,985 25,510 28,610 33,580 1996 : 13,660 16,570 20,140 23,510 26,990 29,890 40,275 1997 : 11,335 13,550 16,615 19,335 : Total : 1995 : 71,415 87,690 103,965 121,645 139,735 156,625 198,805 1996 : 78,180 93,555 110,080 130,170 148,950 167,350 224,710 1997 : 68,040 83,145 98,640 117,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 3/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on March 1, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1996 : Crop of 1997 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Mar 1, : of : : 1997 : Prod : : 1998 : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 4,600 2,200 48 4,200 2,000 48 CO : 29,175 15,500 53 25,377 13,300 52 ID : 142,800 70,000 49 135,430 64,500 48 ME : 21,175 11,200 53 19,170 10,300 54 MI : 13,800 3,300 24 14,250 4,200 29 MN : 24,600 11,000 45 20,440 8,600 42 MT : 3,213 2,700 84 3,328 2,890 87 NE 2/ : 4,402 1,930 7,527 2,835 NY : 7,980 800 10 8,408 600 7 ND : 28,820 12,400 43 21,525 10,000 46 OH 2/ : 1,275 1,175 OR : 30,124 16,000 53 27,161 13,000 48 PA : 4,208 880 21 3,190 800 25 WA : 94,990 30,000 32 88,060 29,500 33 WI : 31,590 11,500 36 27,923 7,800 28 : 15 States : 442,752 189,410 43 407,164 170,325 42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1998 crop. U.S seed usage for the 1997 crop totaled 28,941 million cwt. 2/ Stocks combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1992-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1992 : 379,525 341,209 89.9 38,316 10.1 28,275 1993 : 385,935 351,161 91.0 34,774 9.0 29,031 1994 : 419,645 382,333 91.1 41,312 9.8 29,348 1995 : 403,009 368,946 91.5 34,063 8.5 30,582 1996 : 453,436 407,326 89.8 46,110 10.2 28,941 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Mar 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : CA 1994 : 5,600 2,700 286 60 500 5,040 1995 : 5,330 2,300 242 10 460 4,860 1996 : 4,600 2,200 200 23 472 4,105 1997 : 4,200 2,000 : CO 1994 : 25,795 11,300 1,925 1,210 2,040 22,545 1995 : 23,808 11,200 1,950 1,285 2,048 20,475 1996 : 29,175 15,500 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 1997 : 25,377 13,300 : ID 1994 : 138,801 68,000 8,400 1,535 9,659 127,607 1995 : 132,657 62,500 8,700 1,785 8,920 121,952 1996 : 142,800 70,000 8,400 1,500 10,100 131,200 1997 : 135,430 64,500 : ME 1994 : 18,375 7,700 1,716 525 2,850 15,000 1995 : 17,160 8,500 1,716 420 1,025 15,715 1996 : 21,175 11,200 1,628 395 1,800 18,980 1997 : 19,170 10,300 : MI 1994 : 11,310 4,000 963 174 1,350 9,786 1995 : 16,350 4,800 962 168 690 15,492 1996 : 13,800 3,300 784 300 1,300 12,200 1997 : 14,250 4,200 : MN 1994 : 17,755 8,000 1,693 458 1,668 15,629 1995 : 20,790 8,700 1,573 346 1,757 18,687 1996 : 24,600 11,000 1,383 445 4,158 19,997 1997 : 20,440 8,600 : MT 1994 : 3,200 2,730 216 142 192 2,866 1995 : 2,940 2,500 239 128 147 2,665 1996 : 3,213 2,700 239 137 221 2,855 1997 : 3,328 2,890 : NE 1994 : 3,996 1,440 300 217 311 3,468 1/ 1995 : 3,680 1,420 292 187 284 3,209 1996 : 4,402 1,930 449 169 439 3,794 1997 : 7,527 2,835 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, March 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 States and Fall Season, 1994-97 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Farm Disposition : : : Total :--------------------------------- State : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : and :Production : Mar 1 : For :----------------------: Crop Year : : : Seed :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : NY 1994 : 7,805 900 648 131 417 7,257 1995 : 7,695 900 648 155 290 7,250 1996 : 7,980 800 660 140 370 7,470 1997 : 8,408 600 : ND 1994 : 28,200 10,400 2,125 335 4,365 23,500 1995 : 25,410 9,200 2,211 280 2,800 22,330 1996 : 28,820 12,400 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 1997 : 21,525 10,000 : OH 1994 : 1,348 110 22 11 1,315 1/ 1995 : 1,404 107 4 10 1,390 1996 : 1,275 105 5 35 1,235 1997 : 1,175 : OR 1994 : 27,514 13,000 1,242 222 2,055 25,237 1995 : 24,788 9,900 1,475 148 1,450 23,190 1996 : 30,124 16,000 1,357 305 2,560 27,259 1997 : 27,161 13,000 : PA 1994 : 3,780 700 342 17 362 3,401 1995 : 4,080 800 323 20 102 3,958 1996 : 4,208 880 361 83 325 3,800 1997 : 3,190 800 : WA 1994 : 88,920 30,500 3,528 300 7,000 81,620 1995 : 80,850 25,000 3,912 300 6,400 74,150 1996 : 94,990 30,000 3,552 300 6,800 87,890 1997 : 88,060 29,500 : WI 1994 : 25,740 7,600 1,640 257 1,802 23,681 1995 : 26,000 8,000 1,743 288 1,250 24,462 1996 : 31,590 11,500 1,560 305 1,360 29,925 1997 : 27,923 7,800 : 15 Sts : 1994 : 408,139 168,970 25,134 5,605 34,582 367,952 1995 : 392,942 155,720 26,093 5,524 27,633 359,785 1996 : 442,752 189,410 24,791 5,952 39,185 397,615 1997 : 407,164 170,325 : 23 Fall Sts : 1994 : 419,645 25,872 5,671 35,641 378,333 1995 : 403,009 26,813 5,559 28,504 368,946 1996 : 453,436 25,444 6,054 40,056 407,326 1997 : 417,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations. Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1994-96 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : : : : : : and :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul Crop Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : CO 1994 : 5 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 9 8 4 1995 : 4 8 10 10 11 10 10 12 10 9 6 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : ID 1994 : 4 15 19 5 7 5 5 7 12 9 6 6 1995 : 4 16 17 6 7 6 6 9 8 8 7 6 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : ME 1994 : 3 6 11 8 11 12 10 16 14 6 3 1995 : 2 5 7 9 9 11 11 17 18 7 4 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : MI 1994 : 4 9 15 10 11 8 10 9 11 9 3 1 1995 : 5 11 15 13 13 11 6 9 11 6 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : MN 1994 : 4 24 26 8 4 5 5 6 8 6 4 1995 : 2 30 26 6 4 5 5 6 8 6 2 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : NY 1994 : 3 24 15 12 15 17 7 3 4 1995 : 6 15 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 1 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : ND 1994 : 2 15 10 9 11 13 8 10 9 9 3 1 1995 : 3 14 16 9 10 9 9 8 9 11 2 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : OR 1994 : 2 11 14 25 8 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 2 1995 : 1 12 16 25 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 2 2 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 2 : PA 1994 : 15 21 14 14 10 9 7 6 3 1 1995 : 18 18 18 13 13 9 5 3 2 1 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : WA 1994 : 16 13 24 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 5 2 1995 : 16 13 32 7 3 4 4 7 5 4 4 1 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : WI 1994 : 1 8 19 14 11 8 9 9 10 6 4 1 1995 : 1 9 17 13 12 7 10 9 11 8 3 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 10 Percent March 1, 1998, potato stocks totaled 170 million cwt, down 10 percent from a year earlier but 9 percent above two years ago. Disappearance was 237 million cwt, 7 percent below a year ago and less than 1 percent below two years ago. Processing accounted for 118 million cwt through February, 9 percent less than last year and 3 percent short of two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss of 22.4 million cwt was down 14 percent from last year. Disappearance from the start of harvest to March 1 was 237 million cwt this season, down 7 percent from the same period a year earlier and less than 1 percent below two years ago. Disappearance during February was 35.5 million cwt, down 6 percent from last year but 7 percent above two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss was estimated at 22.4 million cwt, down 14 percent from last year and 10 percent below two years ago. Processing of 1997 crop potatoes totaled 118 million cwt so far this season, down 9 percent from last year and 3 percent below two years ago. February processing claimed 19.3 million cwt of potatoes, down 4 percent from last year but 9 percent above two years ago. Eastern States stored 11.7 million cwt of potatoes on March 1, 1998, down 9 percent from a year ago but 15 percent above 1997. Stocks in Maine were down 8 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's stocks were down 9 percent, while New York's holdings were down 25 percent from last year. Central States' storage accounted for 33.4 million cwt of potatoes this month, down 17 percent from 1997 but 4 percent above 1996. Wisconsin's stocks dropped 32 percent, North Dakota's stocks fell 19 percent, and Minnesota's stocks slipped 22 percent from a year ago. Michigan's holdings were up 27 percent, while Nebraska's stocks increased 48 percent. Western States held 125 million cwt of potatoes in storage on March 1, 1998, down 8 percent from last year but 10 percent above 1996. Idaho's stocks fell 8 percent from a year ago but were 3 percent above two years ago. Idaho's storage held more than half of the western stocks. Colorado's stocks were down 14 percent and Oregon's stocks were off 19 percent from last year, while California's stocks dropped 9 percent. Washington's stocks were off 2 percent from last year, while Montana's seed growers gained 7 percent. Each of the Western States, except California, had more potatoes in storage than two years ago. Reliability of March Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 170 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately 6.47 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 11.2 million cwt. The 10-year (1987-96) record of difference between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates averaged 5.04 million cwt, ranging from 0.36 million cwt to 13.1 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March Stocks, United States, 1987-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1987 : 137,950 99.4 138,800 1988 : 118,960 95.6 124,485 1989 : 115,780 99.3 116,600 1990 : 126,030 93.7 134,470 1991 : 146,180 100.2 145,820 1992 : 139,665 91.4 152,795 1993 : 146,080 94.8 154,135 1994 : 163,305 96.6 168,970 1995 : 152,255 97.8 155,720 1996 : 184,565 97.4 189,410 1997 : 170,325 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ As reported in the September "Potato" annual report. The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on April 14, 1998. 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