Pot 1-2 (3-10) Potato Stocks Washington, D.C. Released March 12, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Tierra Mobley at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Potato Stocks Up 11 Percent From March 2009 The 13 major potato States held 170 million cwt of potatoes in storage March 1, 2010, up 11 percent from a year ago and 4 percent above March 1, 2008. Potatoes in storage accounted for 44 percent of the 2009 fall storage States' production, 3 percentage points above March 1, 2009. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 2.20 million cwt on March 1, 2010, up 10 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 214 million cwt, was 2 percent below March 1, 2009 and down 9 percent from 2008. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 20.9 million cwt, was up 12 percent from the same date in 2009 and 3 percent above 2008. Processors in the 9 major States have used 108 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 7 percent from the same period last year and down 14 percent from 2 years ago. Dehydrating usage accounted for 19.8 million cwt of the total processing, down 8 percent from last year and 22 percent below the same period in 2008. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, March 1, 2009-2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2008 : Crop of 2009 :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : Stocks : Mar % : Prod : Mar 1, : of : Prod : Feb 1, : Mar 1, : of : : 2009 : Prod : : 2010 :2010 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Cwt -- Percent ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- Percent : CA 3/ : 3,948 1,000 25 4,158 1,300 1,100 26 CO : 21,907 11,100 51 22,080 12,200 10,500 48 ID : 116,475 56,500 49 131,000 76,500 65,500 50 ME 3/ : 14,769 7,100 48 15,263 9,300 7,800 51 MI : 14,875 3,300 22 15,660 5,200 3,500 22 MN : 20,400 8,700 43 20,700 MT : 3,465 3,200 92 3,347 3,100 3,000 90 NE : 8,245 3,500 42 8,756 4,200 3,300 38 NY : 5,696 1,200 21 4,950 ND : 22,680 8,100 36 19,125 9,000 7,000 37 OR : 18,676 9,800 52 21,460 12,900 10,700 50 WA : 93,000 31,400 34 88,450 43,300 36,200 41 WI : 25,730 7,800 30 28,980 14,900 12,000 41 : Other States : 11,500 9,500 : 13 States : 369,866 152,700 41 383,929 203,400 170,100 44 : Klamath Basin 4/ : 2,000 2,800 2,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2009 totaled 24.5 million cwt. 2/ Missing stocks combined into "Other States". 3/ February 1, 2010 stocks revised. 4/ Includes potato stocks in CA and Klamath Co., OR. Included in the 13 State total. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 13 Major States, 2000-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2000 1/ : 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 1/ : 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 1/ : 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 1/ : 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 1/ : 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 : 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 : 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 : 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 : 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 : 383,929 265,800 235,300 203,400 170,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 15 major States. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 9 States, 2007-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 : Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal : 2007 : 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 : 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 : 23,110 29,180 35,170 42,050 : ME 2/ : 2007 : 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 : 1,635 2,240 2,895 3,515 4,005 4,795 5,540 7,545 2009 : 1,575 2,060 2,680 3,265 : WA & OR-Oth : 2007 : 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 : 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 : 25,350 31,200 36,490 43,750 : Other Sts 3/ : 2007 : 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 : 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 4/ : 10,605 13,260 16,225 18,945 : Total : 2007 : 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 : 69,055 84,390 99,285 116,560 133,410 149,515 168,695 203,430 2009 4/ : 60,640 75,700 90,565 108,010 : Dehydrated 5/: 2007 : 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 : 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 : 10,945 13,950 17,065 19,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. 2/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 3/ CO, MN, NV, ND, and WI. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in WI. 4/ February 1, 2010 revised. 5/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes CO, ID, NV, OR, WA, and WI. Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 13 Fall Storage States, 2006-2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Jun 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Million Cwt : 2006 : 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 : 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 : 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 1/ : 14.3 16.5 18.8 20.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ February 1, 2010 shrink and loss revised. Reliability of March 1 Stocks Estimates To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 stocks estimate is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 170 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent, or approximately 5.95 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.1 percent, or approximately 10.4 million cwt. Changes between the March 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 4.07 million cwt, ranging from 360 cwt to 13.1 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the March 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 12 times and above 8 times. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final March 1 Stocks, United States, Crop of 1999-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1999 : 170,050 100.3 169,620 2000 : 198,320 100.3 197,670 2001 : 167,870 105.9 158,590 2002 : 163,900 99.2 165,210 2003 : 166,690 100.2 166,280 2004 : 168,420 100.2 168,020 2005 : 153,700 98.8 155,500 2006 : 153,200 96.1 159,500 2007 : 171,800 105.1 163,400 2008 : 151,000 98.9 152,700 2009 : 170,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. 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