Potato Stocks ISSN: 1949-1565 Released April 15, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This is the first issue produced using the new layout. This report issue is published using both layouts but future issues will only be produced using this layout. The previous layout is available on the NASS website: http://www.nass.usda.gov. Potato Stocks Up 11 Percent From April 2009 The 13 major potato States held 129 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 1, 2010, up 11 percent from a year ago. Potatoes in storage accounted for 34 percent of the 2009 fall storage States' production, 3 percentage points above April 1, 2009. Klamath Basin stocks totaled 1.40 million cwt on April 1, 2010, down 3 percent from a year ago. Klamath Basin stocks include potatoes stored in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Potato disappearance, at 255 million cwt, was slightly above April 1, 2009. Season- to-date shrink and loss, at 24.4 million cwt, was up 18 percent from the same date in 2009. Processors in the 9 major States have used 125 million cwt of potatoes this season, down 6 percent from the same period last year. Dehydrating usage accounted for 23.0 million cwt of the total processing, down 7 percent from last year. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: April 1, 2009-2010 [Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2009 totaled 24.5 million cwt.] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 2008 : Crop of 2009 :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks :April stocks : : Stocks : Stocks :April stocks : Production : April 1, :as a percent : Production : March 1, : April 1, :as a percent : : 2009 :of production: : 2010 : 2010 :of production ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 cwt ----- percent ------------ 1,000 cwt ------------ percent : California ......: 3,948 800 20 4,158 1,100 900 22 Colorado ........: 21,907 9,000 41 22,080 10,500 8,100 37 Idaho ...........: 116,475 45,000 39 131,000 65,500 51,000 39 Maine ...........: 14,769 5,600 38 15,263 7,800 6,000 39 Michigan ........: 14,875 1,800 12 15,660 *3,200 1,200 8 Minnesota .......: 20,400 6,400 31 20,700 8,700 7,300 35 Montana .........: 3,465 2,100 61 3,347 3,000 2,000 60 Nebraska ........: 8,245 2,200 27 8,756 3,300 2,200 25 New York ........: 5,696 700 12 4,950 800 500 10 North Dakota ....: 22,680 6,300 28 19,125 7,000 5,000 26 Oregon ..........: 18,676 7,400 40 21,460 10,700 8,000 37 Washington ......: 93,000 23,700 25 88,450 36,200 28,300 32 Wisconsin .......: 25,730 4,800 19 28,980 12,000 8,600 30 : Total ...........: 369,866 115,800 31 383,929 *169,800 129,100 34 : Klamath Basin 1/ : 1,450 2,200 1,400 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Included in the 13 States total. Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2000-2009 [For 2000-2004, data accounts for 15 major producing States. Beginning in 2005 data accounts for 13 major producing States.] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Stocks :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- year :Production:December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : 2000 ....: 458,827 310,300 275,270 234,260 197,670 153,520 109,160 61,270 2001 ....: 387,033 258,750 224,680 192,090 158,590 119,950 81,200 42,990 2002 ....: 407,085 264,485 231,490 199,020 165,210 125,770 83,040 45,880 2003 ....: 403,566 267,900 233,590 200,230 166,280 126,110 85,000 46,020 2004 ....: 404,017 271,100 236,700 203,490 168,020 128,900 88,550 51,700 2005 ....: 375,118 253,800 220,500 189,100 155,500 115,700 75,900 41,560 2006 ....: 389,527 258,900 225,800 192,200 159,500 120,900 79,050 44,460 2007 ....: 397,753 265,500 232,300 199,300 163,400 125,500 83,960 50,420 2008 ....: 369,866 243,700 213,200 183,900 152,700 115,800 78,100 45,300 2009 ....: 383,929 265,800 235,300 203,400 *169,800 129,100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing, 9 States: 2007-2009 [Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced.] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : To : To : To : To : To : To : To : crop year :December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 : Season --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt : Idaho and Oregon, Malheur : 2007 ......................: 26,230 33,250 40,310 48,660 55,460 63,000 70,700 88,030 2008 ......................: 22,380 28,980 35,430 42,150 49,030 55,570 62,940 77,340 2009 ......................: 23,110 29,180 35,170 42,050 49,170 : Maine 1/ : 2007 ......................: 1,700 2,170 2,815 3,440 3,990 4,670 5,240 7,550 2008 ......................: 1,635 2,240 2,895 3,515 4,005 4,795 5,540 7,545 2009 ......................: 1,575 2,060 2,680 3,265 3,915 : Washington and Oregon, Other : 2007 ......................: 30,595 36,940 42,350 50,165 57,160 67,690 72,380 82,770 2008 ......................: 32,560 38,050 42,795 49,865 56,350 62,635 70,625 81,260 2009 ......................: 25,350 31,200 36,490 43,750 50,170 : Other States 2/ : 2007 ......................: 15,040 17,535 20,755 23,900 26,650 29,710 32,600 39,430 2008 ......................: 12,480 15,120 18,165 21,030 24,025 26,515 29,590 37,285 2009 ......................: 10,605 13,260 16,225 *18,920 21,525 : Total : 2007 ......................: 73,565 89,895 106,230 126,165 143,260 165,070 180,920 217,780 2008 ......................: 69,055 84,390 99,285 116,560 133,410 149,515 168,695 203,430 2009 ......................: 60,640 75,700 90,565 *107,985 124,780 : Dehydrated 3/ : 2007 ......................: 12,815 16,785 21,040 25,350 29,500 33,650 37,975 46,660 2008 ......................: 10,675 14,490 18,335 21,465 24,875 28,195 31,870 39,345 2009 ......................: 10,945 13,950 17,065 19,800 23,045 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. 1/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. Amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips. 2/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Monthly amounts exclude quantities used for potato chips in Wisconsin. 3/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin. Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2006-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : To year :December 1 : January 1 :February 1 : March 1 : April 1 : May 1 : June 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : million cwt : 2006 ...: 13.2 16.1 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.5 2007 ...: 14.2 16.4 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.0 25.3 2008 ...: 12.7 14.9 16.8 18.7 20.6 22.3 23.8 2009 ...: 14.3 16.5 18.8 *21.1 24.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Revised. Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Potato stocks surveys are conducted in 13 major fall potato producing States, which account for nearly 98 percent of the United States fall production. Growers, processors, and storage facilities are contacted each month from December through June to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of the first of the month, as well as shrinkage and loss information. Processing data is collected in nine States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin). Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks surveys along with federal administrative data is used to establish estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Revision Policy: Stocks, processing, and shrinkage and loss estimates for the previous month are subject to revision based on late and/or updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information available, including disposition data, will be thoroughly reviewed and any necessary revisions for the entire crop year will be published in the Potatoes Annual Summary. Reliability: Survey indications are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding potato stocks are not included in the sample. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 stocks estimate, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 stocks estimate and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20 year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current estimate relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 4.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 129 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.7 percent, or approximately 6.07 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.0 percent, or approximately 10.3 million cwt. Changes between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 3.99 million cwt, ranging from 300 cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During the 20 year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 14 times and above 6 times. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks - United States: 1999-2009 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : Percent of : Final year : stocks : final : stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 cwt percent 1,000 cwt : 1999 .....: 127,570 99.3 128,410 2000 .....: 154,030 100.3 153,520 2001 .....: 128,930 107.5 119,950 2002 .....: 125,030 99.4 125,770 2003 .....: 126,410 100.2 126,110 2004 .....: 129,620 100.6 128,900 2005 .....: 113,900 98.4 115,700 2006 .....: 113,600 94.0 120,900 2007 .....: 133,600 106.5 125,500 2008 .....: 114,550 98.9 115,800 2009 .....: 129,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .............. (202) 720-4215 Steve Maliszewski - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits............. (202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ......... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................... 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