Pot 1-2 (4-00) Potato Stocks National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 13, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge at (202) 720-4285, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. April Potato Stocks Down 3 Percent The 15 major potato States held 128 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 2000, down 3 percent from last year and 5 percent below two years ago. Stocks accounted for 30 percent of 1999 fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Disappearance of 293 million cwt for the season, is slightly above last year and 5 percent above two years ago. Processing, at 146 million cwt is down 2 percent from last year but 6 percent above two years ago. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1990-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : : : : : : : : Year :Production: Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1990 : 344,200 225,500 194,460 162,850 134,470 101,150 63,040 1991 : 363,541 242,070 211,005 178,515 145,820 108,865 69,110 1992 : 368,516 246,820 215,990 184,560 152,795 115,785 75,040 1993 : 376,954 249,410 217,300 185,490 153,435 115,170 72,860 1994 : 410,839 273,290 238,560 202,470 169,570 129,825 87,600 1995 : 394,785 256,710 223,550 189,360 156,020 115,855 75,870 1996 : 443,704 295,100 261,320 226,080 189,210 147,635 103,210 1997 : 413,513 278,830 246,550 212,562 175,870 134,190 92,840 1998 : 423,170 280,910 246,230 209,640 173,650 131,220 87,895 50,270 1999 : 420,567 274,370 238,160 205,780 170,050 127,570 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Potatoes: Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1996-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State and : : : : : : : : Crop Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 2/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : ID & OR-Mal: 1996 : 31,060 38,210 45,420 54,640 62,570 70,720 96,970 1997 : 26,880 33,950 41,050 49,470 57,620 65,750 91,450 1998 : 27,510 34,700 42,670 51,210 60,040 68,550 76,410 92,860 1999 : 27,970 34,490 40,790 49,220 57,820 : ME 3/ : 1996 : 1,790 2,115 2,820 3,280 3,820 4,420 6,495 1997 : 1,250 1,720 2,265 2,735 3,355 3,900 5,870 1998 : 1,430 1,935 2,530 2,985 3,595 4,180 4,705 5,945 1999 : 1,375 1,670 2,310 2,995 3,640 : WA & OR-Oth: 1996 : 31,670 36,660 41,700 48,740 55,570 62,320 80,970 1997 : 28,580 33,990 38,690 46,400 53,720 59,780 76,930 1998 : 33,630 38,890 45,650 53,290 60,930 67,180 74,190 83,730 1999 : 33,440 39,620 45,500 53,350 61,080 : Oth Sts 4/ : 1996 : 13,720 17,000 20,645 24,085 27,650 30,830 43,100 1997 : 11,645 13,960 17,115 19,905 23,515 26,365 37,842 1998 : 11,615 14,550 18,150 20,900 24,710 27,855 31,635 37,662 1999 : 11,785 14,495 17,295 19,970 23,480 : Total : 1996 : 78,240 93,985 110,585 130,745 149,610 168,290 227,535 1997 : 68,355 83,620 99,120 118,510 138,210 155,795 212,092 1998 : 74,185 90,075 109,000 128,385 149,275 167,765 186,940 220,197 1999 : 74,570 90,275 105,895 125,535 146,020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Amount excludes quantities used for potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI. 2/ Data not available prior to 1998. 3/ Includes Maine grown potatoes only. 4/ MI, MN, ND, and WI. Fall Potatoes: Production and Stocks on April 1, 1999-00 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Crop of 1998 : Crop of 1999 :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : : Stocks : % : : Stocks : % : Prod : Apr 1, : of : Prod : Apr 1, : of : : 1999 2/ : Prod : : 2000 2/ : Prod -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent ---- 1,000 Cwt --- Percent : CA : 3,708 1,200 32 4,005 1,400 35 CO : 25,360 9,300 37 25,762 10,100 39 ID : 138,000 52,000 38 133,330 50,000 38 ME : 18,060 6,000 33 17,813 7,200 40 MI : 14,648 2,200 15 14,963 2,700 18 MN : 21,170 6,700 32 18,020 4,700 26 MT : 3,180 1,740 55 3,325 1,650 50 NE : 8,175 8,904 NY : 7,290 350 5 6,758 350 5 ND : 28,670 10,500 37 26,400 6,200 23 OH : 1,200 987 OR : 26,229 10,500 40 28,020 13,500 48 PA : 3,360 420 13 3,080 560 18 WA : 93,225 21,500 23 95,200 20,500 22 WI : 30,895 7,800 25 34,000 7,300 21 Other States : 1,010 1,410 : 15 States : 423,170 131,220 31 420,567 127,570 30 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 2000 potatoes; 1999 crop seed usage totaled 29.5 million cwt. 2/ Nebraska and Ohio combined into "Other States". Potatoes: Shrinkage and Loss, 15 Fall Storage States, 1996-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : To : To : To : To : To : To : Total : Year : Dec 1 : Jan 1 : Feb 1 : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 :Jun 1 1/: Season -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Cwt : 1996 : 24.2 26.1 28.2 30.0 32.3 34.8 39.2 1997 : 15.3 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.5 25.6 30.0 1998 : 19.8 21.7 23.6 25.3 27.3 29.2 30.9 33.1 1999 : 17.2 21.1 23.4 25.7 27.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data not available prior to 1998. Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Apr 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : CA : : : 1996: 4,600 1,700 200 23 472 4,105 : 1997: 4,200 1,500 206 20 340 3,840 : 1998: 3,708 1,200 171 29 720 2,959 : 1999: 4,005 1,400 CO : : : 1996: 29,175 12,900 1,925 1,485 3,975 23,715 : 1997: 24,993 10,500 1,895 1,340 2,773 20,880 : 1998: 25,360 9,300 1,930 1,615 2,615 21,130 : 1999: 25,762 10,100 ID : : : 1996: 142,800 56,000 8,600 1,500 10,100 131,200 : 1997: 140,314 56,000 8,700 1,130 9,258 129,926 : 1998: 138,000 52,000 8,400 1,280 9,756 126,964 : 1999: 133,330 50,000 ME : : : 1996: 21,175 8,400 1,584 395 1,800 18,980 : 1997: 19,080 7,400 1,430 275 1,760 17,045 : 1998: 18,060 6,000 1,496 360 1,740 15,960 : 1999: 17,813 7,200 MI : : : 1996: 13,800 1,900 768 300 1,300 12,200 : 1997: 14,250 2,300 864 200 1,300 12,750 : 1998: 14,648 2,200 888 200 1,348 13,100 : 1999: 14,963 2,700 MN : : : 1996: 24,600 8,500 1,348 445 4,158 19,997 : 1997: 20,440 6,800 1,640 450 1,717 18,273 : 1998: 21,170 6,700 1,400 254 1,440 19,476 : 1999: 18,020 4,700 MT : : : 1996: 3,213 1,900 239 137 221 2,855 : 1997: 3,328 700 244 152 208 2,968 : 1998: 3,180 1,740 253 145 265 2,770 : 1999: 3,325 1,650 NE : : : 1996: 4,402 451 169 439 3,794 : 1997: 7,761 462 203 380 7,178 : 1998: 8,175 469 166 881 7,128 : 1999: 8,904 NY : : : 1996: 7,420 400 583 127 341 6,952 : 1997: 7,150 400 607 139 315 6,696 : 1998: 7,290 350 572 110 330 6,850 : 1999: 6,758 350 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Fall Potatoes: Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition, 15 Storage States and 23 Fall Season States, 1996-99 Crop Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : Farm Disposition : : : : Total :--------------------------------- State :Crop : : Stocks : Used : Where Grown : :Year :Production: Apr 1 1/ : For :----------------------: : : : : Fall :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage : Sold : : : : Seed : Home Use : and Loss : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 Cwt : : ND : : : 1996: 28,820 10,000 2,188 360 5,270 23,190 : 1997: 22,000 7,000 2,142 355 2,266 19,379 : 1998: 28,670 10,500 2,250 395 2,840 25,435 : 1999: 26,400 6,200 OH : : : 1996: 1,275 109 5 35 1,235 : 1997: 1,170 105 8 37 1,125 : 1998: 1,200 100 8 37 1,155 : 1999: 987 OR : : : 1996: 30,124 13,300 1,345 305 2,560 27,259 : 1997: 27,319 9,800 1,405 195 1,555 25,569 : 1998: 26,229 10,500 1,382 195 2,206 23,828 : 1999: 28,020 13,500 PA : : : 1996: 4,160 410 266 81 320 3,759 : 1997: 3,173 480 276 78 176 2,919 : 1998: 3,360 420 261 50 252 3,058 : 1999: 3,080 560 WA : : : 1996: 94,990 23,000 3,648 300 6,800 87,890 : 1997: 88,160 22,500 3,840 300 6,400 81,460 : 1998: 93,225 21,500 4,080 300 6,500 86,425 : 1999: 95,200 20,500 WI : : : 1996: 33,150 8,200 1,710 320 1,425 31,405 : 1997: 30,175 7,600 1,764 275 1,448 28,452 : 1998: 30,895 7,800 1,720 265 2,360 28,270 : 1999: 34,000 7,300 Oth Sts: : : 1996: 1,025 : 1997: 1,210 : 1998: 1,010 : 1999: 1,410 15 Sts : : : 1996: 443,704 147,635 24,964 5,952 39,216 398,536 : 1997: 413,513 134,190 25,580 5,120 29,933 378,460 : 1998: 423,170 131,220 25,372 5,372 33,290 384,508 : 1999: 420,567 127,570 23 Fall: : : 1996: 454,388 25,608 6,054 40,087 408,247 : 1997: 423,190 26,224 5,260 30,841 387,089 : 1998: 432,737 25,929 5,584 34,231 392,922 : 1999: 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Nebraska and Ohio stocks combined into "Other States". Fall Potatoes: Farm Marketings, Selected States, 1996-98 Marketing Years -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Crop :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul : Year : : : : : : : : : : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : CA : : : 1996 : : 1997 : : 1998 : 13 12 13 11 10 12 10 8 7 4 CO : : : 1996 : 4 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 : 1997 : 1 4 8 9 11 10 8 11 11 10 10 7 : 1998 : 5 8 9 12 10 10 12 11 10 9 4 ID : : : 1996 : 6 14 18 7 5 6 6 9 8 8 6 7 : 1997 : 6 15 12 8 8 8 6 7 7 9 7 7 : 1998 : 6 11 20 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 6 6 ME : : : 1996 : 1 8 7 7 8 10 9 14 16 9 11 : 1997 : 1 6 7 8 8 10 9 15 17 10 9 : 1998 : 1 7 9 9 9 10 11 14 12 9 9 MI : : : 1996 : 1 9 10 11 11 9 12 11 10 9 5 2 : 1997 : 3 9 10 8 11 11 11 12 11 8 6 : 1998 : 3 8 9 9 9 12 14 9 12 10 5 MN : : : 1996 : 6 22 19 11 5 5 7 8 8 5 4 : 1997 : 5 22 25 11 7 5 6 7 7 5 : 1998 : 11 16 14 10 5 7 6 8 9 6 8 NY : : : 1996 : 7 17 17 14 14 10 8 7 4 2 : 1997 : 8 15 15 16 15 13 9 5 3 1 : 1998 : 7 16 16 16 15 11 8 6 4 1 ND : : : 1996 : 4 12 22 8 7 7 8 10 7 6 7 2 : 1997 : 1 12 16 13 8 12 9 9 8 6 5 1 : 1998 : 3 13 14 10 10 8 7 7 9 10 6 3 OR : : : 1996 : 1 14 16 26 7 5 5 5 4 6 5 5 1 : 1997 : 1 9 14 30 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 3 1 : 1998 : 2 12 15 27 8 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 2 PA : : : 1996 : 1 12 15 13 11 9 10 8 9 6 4 2 : 1997 : 1 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 8 3 1 : 1998 : 14 12 11 12 15 11 9 7 6 2 1 WA : : : 1996 : 17 11 31 8 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 2 : 1997 : 12 14 31 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 1 : 1998 : 16 13 25 7 3 5 6 7 5 6 6 1 WI : : : 1996 : 1 6 20 14 10 7 8 11 9 7 4 3 : 1997 : 1 7 17 14 10 9 8 11 10 7 4 2 : 1998 : 1 6 18 13 10 10 10 9 9 8 4 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potato Stocks Down 3 Percent April 1, 2000 potato stocks totaled 128 million cwt, down 3 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below two years ago. Storage accounted for 30 percent of fall production, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1 totaled 293 million cwt this season, up slightly from last year and 5 percent above two years ago. March disappearance of 42.5 million cwt was slightly above last year and 2 percent above two years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss of 27.9 million cwt was up 2 percent from last year and 10 percent above two years ago. Processing of 1999 crop potatoes so far this season totaled 146 million cwt, down 2 percent from the 1998 crop but 6 percent above the 1997 crop. In March, processors in the eight major States used 20.5 million cwt of potatoes, down 2 percent from last year but 4 percent above 1998. Eastern States stored 8.11 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 2000, up 20 percent from a year ago but 2 percent below two years ago. Maine's holdings were up 20 percent, Pennsylvania's were up 33 percent, and New York's stocks were equal to last year. Central States accounted for 22.3 million cwt of potato stocks this April, down 21 percent from a year ago and 10 percent below 1998. North Dakota's stocks were off 41 percent from last year, Minnesota's stocks dropped 30 percent, and Wisconsin's stocks were down 6 percent. Michigan's stocks were up 23 percent from a year ago and the Nebraska - Ohio combination was up 40 percent. Western States held 97.2 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1, 2000, up 1 percent from last year but 4 percent below 1998. Oregon's stocks were up 29 percent from a year ago, but were offset by a 5 percent decline in Washington and a 4 percent drop in Idaho. Stocks in the three Northwest States were the same as last year and accounted for 66 percent of U. S. stocks. Colorado's stocks were up 9 percent and California's potato stocks were up 17 percent from last year. Montana's stocks, mostly seed, were off 5 percent. Reliability of April 1 Stocks Estimates The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 128 million cwt will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.0 percent or approximately 6.4 million cwt. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.6 percent or approximately 11.0 million cwt. The 10-year (1989-98) record of differences between the April 1 stocks estimates and the final estimates were up an average of 4.8 million cwt, ranging from 12.8 million cwt below the final to 0.74 million cwt above. During the 10-year period, the April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years. Fall Potato Stocks: Preliminary and Final April 1 Stocks, United States, 1989-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : Preliminary : % of : Final Year : Stocks : Final : Stocks -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1989 : 83,540 99.1 84,320 1990 : 91,910 90.9 101,150 1991 : 109,600 100.7 108,865 1992 : 103,010 89.0 115,785 1993 : 108,455 94.2 115,170 1994 : 123,285 95.0 129,825 1995 : 112,925 97.5 115,855 1996 : 143,235 97.1 147,585 1997 : 129,340 96.4 134,190 1998 : 130,890 99.7 131,220 1999 : 127,570 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stocks are defined as the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years averaged 90.7 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss and home use account for the remaining 9.3 percent. Most seed for use the following year is still on hand, but remains part of stocks until moved or planted. Potatoes: Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed, United States, 1994-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fall Potatoes : Amount Used :-------------------------------------------------------: for Seed Crop : : : Sold : : Not Sold : All Seasons Year : Production : Sold : as % of :Not Sold : as % of : Following : : : Prod : : Prod : year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---- Percent 1,000 Cwt Percent 1,000 Cwt : 1994 : 422,345 380,818 90.2 41,527 9.8 29,428 1995 : 404,852 370,679 91.6 34,173 8.4 30,561 1996 : 454,388 408,247 89.8 46,141 10.2 29,138 1997 : 423,190 387,089 91.5 36,101 8.5 29,975 1998 : 432,737 392,922 90.8 39,815 9.2 29,516 1999 : 429,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The next "Potato Stocks" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 15, 2000. 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